Ida is ramping back up in the Western Caribbean. Looks like it's on its way to being a hurricane again.

The Canadian GEM turns Ida into a really nasty system [984 mb/hPa central pressure!] just off Cape Hatteras next Thursday and Friday.

At this time I don't know what to call this development: a tropical or sub-tropical system, an intense nor'easter, or even an unusually early MECS or "snowstorm" [shades of 1987!]. Much could well depend on how much cold air gets dragged down "in place" over us and how far westward and inland the precipitation field gets drawn in. We could get anything ranging from a rather cold, raw, windy period to a 1987-style heavy snowfall. Most of the wind affecting us should be northeasterly to northerly or northwesterly, so temperatures could range anywhere from 25 to 50 degrees through the period. If we get precipitation it would be wind-driven rain if mild or ice/snow if cold. It all depends on how much polar/Arctic air gets drawn over our area by the prevailing northerly wind field, and by how far west the moisture moves in.

Elaborating further, Ida is converted into an extra-tropical system before reaching the Gulf Coast somewhere between New Orleans and peninsular Florida. But it is one of the most intense extratropical systems in the Gulf since the 1992 ['93?] Superstorm.

Ida loses strength over the inland Southeast, but then blows up again upon hitting the Atlantic, probably next Thursday. At that time we had better start monitoring the track of this system, probably a full-strength nor'easter by then. We get nothing but some wind if Ida passes out to sea, but something really nasty if Ida decides to go "coastal" and tracks to the north off Delmarva.

The GFS also has a pretty large storm off the coast mid-week, main target New England. It looks like it's mostly northern jet energy with an infusion from Ida. Most of the cold air still locked up in Canada and the GFS keeps the worst east of us.. early though so details somewhat unimportant. The Euro which is usually superior in this range does not seem to have the same interaction and no real storm up the coast.

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