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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 11/18/2009

Forecast: Trending cloudy but not too cool

By Dan Stillman

Best chance of rain is Thursday p.m.

* Ida's remnants challenge forecasters | Sesame Street weather *
* Outside Now? Clouds, temps, webcam & more: Weather Wall *


Today: Variably cloudy. Mid-50s to near 60. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Mid-40s to near 50. | Tomorrow: Cloudy. Increasing chance of showers. Mid-50s to near 60. | A Look Ahead


While the weather has slowly gone downhill since Sunday's sunshine and highs in the 70s, it's still been pretty nice, and not too cold for November. The downhill trend continues with increasing clouds today and shower chances tonight through Thursday night or early Friday. But temperatures will hold at typical levels for this time of year, and Saturday should make for a great start to the weekend. How about Sunday?...

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Kind of a tricky cloud forecast today with low pressure spinning over the Midwest and high pressure centered over New England. The result for the D.C. area looks like skies ranging from mostly cloudy south and west of town to partly sunny north and east. Likewise, highs will probably range from the mid-50s (cloudier spots) to near 60 (sunnier). Also, a bit of a breeze from the east around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: For the evening and overnight, mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers (western suburbs stand the best chance, especially after midnight). Lows in the mid-40s (suburbs) to near 50 (downtown). Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Onshore winds and a front approaching from the west mostly likely means a cloudy day with an increasing chance of showers (around 60% by afternoon). Highs in the mid-50s to near 60. (Those sunny Sunday highs in the 70s are feeling further and further in the past, no?) Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Shower chances and cloudy skies continue as a cool front moves through. Temperatures probably won't drop much past the upper 40s to near 50. Confidence: Medium


Whether or not shower chances linger into Friday morning depends on how fast the cool front moves through and off to our east. Either way, clearing skies are likely as the day progresses with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Partly to mostly clear Friday night with lows in the upper 30s (suburbs) to low 40s (downtown). Confidence: Medium

I'm about as confident as a forecaster can be three days out that Saturday will be a very nice November day, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Fair weather should hold on through Saturday night. Confidence: Medium-High

Forecast confidence drops considerably come Sunday with models showing a storm developing to the south and threatening to come up the coast. For the moment, I'm leaning toward high pressure holding off any rain until Sunday afternoon at the earliest, and highs in the upper 50s to near 60. You'll want to check back on this one though. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Dan Stillman  | November 18, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Cooler than yesterday but still pleasant
Next: Record highs vs. lows reveal shifting climate


We are planning a field trip to Williamsburg, VA on Thursday (Nov. 19). There is a prediction of 1/2 - 1" of rain. How heavy would that rainfall be? We know that it rained heavily last week, but we don't know if the kiddies can brave it tomorrow. Thanks!

Posted by: ACuriousTeacher | November 18, 2009 7:25 AM | Report abuse

Concerning your post about the difficulties of accurately forecasting the remnants of IDA, I understand the complexities involved in doing so. That said, is it any wonder that people are skeptical about accurately 'forecasting' out 50 - 100 years about the climate? Talk about complex!

Posted by: Sojouner | November 18, 2009 8:01 AM | Report abuse

This system is being potrayed as a "rare" occluded front...occluded frontal passages are NOT rare in the upper Great Lakes, especially during the spring and fall.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | November 18, 2009 1:40 PM | Report abuse


As of now, it does not look to me like a day-long washout, but rather a chance of occasional showers. If it were me, I would plan to go for the time being (but certainly have another check at the forecast tonight and in the morning).

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | November 18, 2009 2:05 PM | Report abuse

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