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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 12/ 8/2009

Another Saturday snow possibility

By Matt Rogers

* Flood Watch tonight: Full Forecast *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday-Saturday night
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 35%
Most Likely Potential Impact:

Another storm tracking up from the south is forecast to push precipitation into our area Saturday and Saturday night. There are a few differences from this past weekend as this system may ultimately be weaker, but our cold air will be stronger. This means potentially more snow for spots that missed out on Saturday, while those that saw the most snow this past weekend could pick up less this time around. But a lot of the details are blurry.

Based on current thinking, light snow could start in the mid-to-late morning on Saturday and continue into Saturday night with possibly flurries on Sunday morning. Light accumulations would be expected with this event. There is a chance that the far southeast sections of our area could see mixed rain/snow, especially during the daytime hours.

Here is our current assessment of accumulation chances:

No snow: 40%
Dusting to coating (mainly on grass): 25%
1-3": 25%
3"+: 10%

Most likely scenario: Dusting up to a 1-3" range.

Once we get beyond the storm coming tonight and tomorrow, our guidance should improve for the weekend event, so stay tuned for updates!

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Matt Rogers  | December 8, 2009; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Mix tonight; heavy rain early tomorrow
Next: What is winter, and how do we adapt?


And the likelihood of this going to three or four snowflakes is.....? ;-) (I was out of town for the snow last week, so I am looking to see if I will make it up this week. LOL)

Looks like this might be a nice winter for us snow-lovers!

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | December 8, 2009 10:09 AM | Report abuse

Crossing my fingers that my Huntington, Alexandria neighborhood actually sees something from this. Last weekend it would be pretty for 20 minutes and then rain, then pretty for 20 minutes and rain. By the end of it we just had cold air and standing water puddles everywhere. Not one bit of snow... not even on grass.

Heres to this weekend being better (it's a low bar, the weather gods can do it)!

Posted by: kallieh | December 8, 2009 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Kallieh, that's too bad- I live in the Van Dorn neighborhood of Alexandria and we had a good inch on the ground (unpaved lawns, of course). We definitely got some sleet, though, as I discovered while scraping the car on Sunday. Ick.

But here's for more snow for my last winter in DC!

Posted by: MasonPatriot1 | December 8, 2009 10:48 AM | Report abuse

Signs seem good for at least something more this weekend. Seasonal trends suggest we'll be happy...

Middle of next week looking really interesting as well, several models lining up for big wintry storm possibility.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 8, 2009 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Yes, midday models still favoring a light snow event for this weekend, but as Ian notes, next week is looking more interesting and there are even signs of a coastal storm way out on Christmas week. This pattern may give us the best chance for a White Christmas in years.

Posted by: MattRogers | December 8, 2009 11:55 AM | Report abuse

Will I see any snow covering my lawn this winter in Short Pump? I should move to Antigua, at least then I wouldn't get my hopes up only to have them crushed every time.

Posted by: Registration1982 | December 8, 2009 11:59 AM | Report abuse

I'm dreeeeeeamin' of a whiiiiiite Christmas...

Never really had one- we had flakes a few years back, but if I recall correctly there was little to no accumulation....

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 8, 2009 12:10 PM | Report abuse

We had a white Christmas about 5 years back if I recall. I just know the parents were up from Florida, and we went sledding because my dad was so excited to have snow Xmas morning. LOL.

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | December 8, 2009 12:12 PM | Report abuse

If I recall correctly there was a white Christmas here in 1999. Well it didn't snow on Christmas day but there was definitely snow on the ground that's gotta count right? I was still in high school and we were passing through on the way to New Jersey and I remember being on the beltway and seeing snow on the ground and there was definitely an inch or two in Maryland.

Either way hoping for some more snow looks like this will be a good winter after all.

Posted by: TerrenceM | December 8, 2009 12:15 PM | Report abuse

You guys can already tell potential weather for Xmas!?!? Goodness! Okay then, my birthday is May 14th, 2010. Will it be sunny?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | December 8, 2009 12:20 PM | Report abuse

For tonight? how bad an idea to leave from oakton, va to germantown md at 4, then germantown to leesburg va around 8:30?

Posted by: mandarb77 | December 8, 2009 12:29 PM | Report abuse

mandarb77, your drive to Germantown should be fine (except for typical rush hour problems), but your drive back could be trickier with precipitation and colder surface temperatures.

Posted by: MattRogers | December 8, 2009 12:37 PM | Report abuse

For the storm on December 17th, how much potential is the storm showing at this time? Henry Margusity of Accuweather, is stating that it is so big that it is bringing tears to his eyes. Anyway, we know he can way over hype things, so I am trying to get the real deal from CWG. Thanks!

Posted by: snowlover | December 8, 2009 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Aren't the 7+ day models extremely unreliable? I know they have been in the past.

That said, I'm desperately hoping for a pattern change soon. Zonal flow would be fine with me.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 8, 2009 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Oh week would be talking feet, not inches...and ratios could be 12-15:1 with enough cold air.

Posted by: DullesARC | December 8, 2009 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Sat. potential looks good for 2-5 inches regionally. GFS has had it since Sun., now other models coming on board.

The potential on the 15th and 16th could be crippling if the 12z GFS verifies. With a qpf of 1.5 - 2.0, even though the 850 line is close at times, could be 10-18 inches of snow for some......But.....this is a long ways off....not to be taken seriously at this early date.

Posted by: AugustaJim | December 8, 2009 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Can anyone point me in the right direction as to literature that explains the GFS/NAM Euro, etc.? I am really interested in being able to come up with my own forecast/predictions, and weighing in on different storms! Thanks!

Posted by: snowlover | December 8, 2009 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Re: Henry M.

This winter has been anticipated for several months by many weather folk, so I fully expect the hype for each potential storm on the models to be even higher than it has been in past years.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 8, 2009 2:16 PM | Report abuse

GFS/GEM seem to be rather pessimistic on this weekend storm. It heads out to sea rather quickly. Nonetheless we seem to get an inch or two per GFS.

Next week is a bit far out into the future. I'll know better in a day or two, but beware of a cold December. It could set up a boring heart of winter for snow lovers, especially with an El Nino pattern that can have a reputation for sending us 65-degree "blowtorches". The "flakes" you see in February just might be cherry petals!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 8, 2009 2:48 PM | Report abuse

While my heart pitter patters with thoughts of a snowstorm like we haven't seen in years, I am a little concerned about the timing for next week, only because I am in California the 14th and 15th, and don't want to be stuck out there for a few extra days because IAD is shut down due to 2 feet of snow. LOL.

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | December 8, 2009 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Hey mATT have you seen the 12z GFS for the middle of next week storm , one word?? WOW!!

Posted by: redskinsfan01 | December 8, 2009 3:56 PM | Report abuse

I was checking out NWS and it looks like next Tuesday could be real interesting, potentially a lot more interesting than this weekend. It's still somewhat hard to believe as we don't typically get "big" snowstorms in December, but you never know what can happen. If there's cold and there's moisture, it doesn't matter. We're definitely due for our "every 5-7 year" blizzard, but the question is when :-)

Posted by: swishjobs | December 8, 2009 11:29 PM | Report abuse

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