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Posted at 10:40 AM ET, 12/30/2009

Forecast: New Year's storm mostly a nuisance

By Dan Stillman

No whiteout or washout, but wintry or wet at times

* Winter Weather Advisory late tonight/early Thursday *
* 2009's erosion of climate clarity | Snowy Mount Vernon *
* Outside now? Clouds & more: Weather Wall | E-mail this forecast *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5Only a little warmer than yesterday, but a whole lot less wind in your face.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds & light winds. Mid-to-upper 30s. | Tonight: Chance of a wintry mix late. Upper 20s to low 30s. | Tomorrow: Cloudy. Chance of a.m. mix changing to rain. Mainly dry p.m. Upper 30s to near 40. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

First things first -- yesterday's stinging winds are gone, making for a cold but comparably tolerable day today. Now, on to the period of greater interest for most: New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. A weak coastal storm threatens a light mix of precipitation late tonight into New Year's Eve morning. Tomorrow afternoon and part of the evening could be just fine though, with another chance of precipitation late evening into early New Year's Day, before blustery winds return.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): After chilly morning lows in the upper teens and low 20s, afternoon highs only get to the mid-to-upper 30s. Today, though, it will actually feel like the 30s thanks to light winds. Some early-morning sun is likely to be replaced by partly to mostly cloudy skies for the balance of the day. The clouds will be generally high and thin, so skies should still be reasonably bright. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clouds lower tonight, and their insulating effect should help keep temperatures from dropping too far, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. A light wintry mix is possible after 2 a.m. or so (little or no snow accumulation expected). Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the holiday weekend...

Tomorrow (New Year's Eve): A fairly weak storm moving up the coast from the south is likely to clip the area with a light wintry mix during the morning (little or no snow accumulation expected). While it doesn't look like a huge deal, temperatures near or below freezing could make for some slick spots, mainly north and west of town, through mid-morning. Thereafter, any precipitation in frozen form should change to plain rain as we warm toward highs in the upper 30s to near 40. I'm optimistic the afternoon and at least part of the evening, though cloudy, will be mainly dry for whatever plans you might have. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: You'll want to dress warmly if you'll be out celebrating. That said, evening and overnight temperatures in the 30s won't be all that bad as New Year's Eves go, and winds should be light. A parting shot of precipitation, starting in the form of some light rain, could develop (50% chance) later in the evening or overnight. Toward morning, any rain could change to snow. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Might see a period of morning snow showers on New Year's Day Friday (50% chance; any accumulations would probably be light). Winds are likely to kick up in the afternoon with some breaks in the clouds and highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Windy and cold Friday night with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

You'll never believe what we're featuring for the weekend. Um, yeah -- more gusty winds. Maybe a flurry or two as well. Highs in the 30s will feel like the 20s under partly sunny skies, with lows in the teens (suburbs) to 20s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High

Updated: Wednesday Dec. 30 @ 11:10 p.m.

By Dan Stillman  | December 30, 2009; 10:40 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

This brewing storm could generate some interesting weather for the Bridgestone Classic (outdoor hockey game) at Fenway on New Year's Day. Skates on snow & ice -- just like being a kid again!

Posted by: wrytous | December 30, 2009 6:35 AM | Report abuse

I hope you all are out there with your cameras this morning to catch this sunrise.

Posted by: fleeciewool | December 30, 2009 7:15 AM | Report abuse

Oh no, the dreaded fang cloud.

Posted by: kallieh | December 30, 2009 8:26 AM | Report abuse

You guys want to chime in on the big January 7th snow storm they are hyping on the Accuweather blogs?

Posted by: APU2100 | December 30, 2009 9:50 AM | Report abuse

yeah...that fang cloud looks pretty mean...

CWG:
since the new year's snow chances kind of faded away, when's our next chance for seeing a nice friendly "snow cloud" up there?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | December 30, 2009 10:38 AM | Report abuse

Looks like some of the models are indicating the first part of January to be cold and dry.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 30, 2009 10:41 AM | Report abuse

I know what the models and the NWS are saying but there is something about this storm that bothers me. Let see where we are in the next 12 hours.

Posted by: ntrlsol | December 30, 2009 11:28 AM | Report abuse

I don't see this storm as a snow maker at all. Just look at today's map compared to just before the Big One; the high is in the wrong place. Just gotta find the highs around here to predict the lows. Also the shield of precip now developing is quite a bit north compared to last week's. (Remember that amazing radar from the Gulf.) Still, it's a great pattern that could yield more snow in the coming weeks, NAO is still in the tank. Maybe Jan 7th. Maybe.

Posted by: curtmccormick | December 30, 2009 11:37 AM | Report abuse

My checks on model guidance seem to confirm curtmccormick's post. Most of the models haven't gotten to Jan. 7 yet. NOGAPS has little precipitation of any type in the next few days. Maybe a flurry or two is the most we get. Looks a lot like last winter...

Tomorrow's storm seems to be generally too far to the north to do us any good. Intensification Saturday gives us nothing but more nasty cold wind. Bummer!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 30, 2009 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Some models are hinting at a possible storm in the Jan 7-9 window, but the better, more reliable models are suppressing the energy too far to our south. Now, a point to note is that the last big storm was originally forecast to pass to our south on all the models when we were looking at it on the week before. So it is worth watching given all the cold weather availability.

Posted by: MattRogers | December 30, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

I am certainly not expecting a large amount of snow with this system either but the current perception shield in Louisiana looks to be a little more impressive than originally forecasted. The 12z NAM is also looking a little colder and snowier than previous runs. All in all I do not think a couple of inches of snow W of I95 is out of the question.

Posted by: ntrlsol | December 30, 2009 3:22 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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