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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 12/ 2/2009

Forecast: Rain on track to slow p.m. commute

By Dan Stillman

Chilly weekend ahead; cold enough for snow?

* Climate e-mail flap | 2010 weather calendar | Winter travel tips *
* Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Snow Lover's Crystal Ball *


Today: Overcast. Rain develops after a.m. rush. Low 50s. | Tonight: Rain, diminishing late. 50s. | Tomorrow: Increasing sun. Breezy. Upper 50s to low 60s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


For the second time in three days, we'll see our trip home this late afternoon and evening complicated by rain. Tomorrow brings improving conditions with some sun and warmer temperatures, before a cold snap commences on Friday and really kicks in for the weekend. What's the latest on that snow rumor for Saturday?...

Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): We're dry through the morning commute as any early-morning sun quickly gives way to overcast skies with highs headed for the low 50s. As a juicy storm system approaches from the southwest, light rain is likely to spread across the area from southwest to northeast during the late morning through early afternoon. Rain could be moderate at times in the mid-to-late afternoon. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Rain continues through the evening, at times moderate to heavy with the chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two. Evening temperatures stay fairly steady, mainly in the low 50s, with winds from the southeast at 15-20 mph. Rain should diminish after 1 a.m. or so, and temperatures may actually rise some overnight -- into the mid-50s, possibly upper 50s -- as winds come from more of a due south direction. Confidence: Medium

Storm totals could approach or exceed 1 inch.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Any lingering early-morning showers and overcast should dissipate in favor of a partly sunny and breezy day with pleasant highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy and quite cool with lows in the 30s. Confidence: Medium-High


We're partly to mostly cloudy and cooler Friday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Continued partly to mostly cloudy Friday night with lows in the 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

Saturday hinges on a storm expected to form off the Southeast U.S. coast and then... track northward close enough to the coast to give us a good chance of rain and/or snow Saturday into Saturday night with daytime highs only in the 30s? ... or track far enough off the coast to leave us with more limited precipitation chances and highs near 40 or into the low 40s? We're leaning somewhat toward the latter, but are watching the models closely in case they trend toward the former. Confidence: Low

Any storminess should clear out in time for a partly to mostly sunny but chilly Sunday with highs in the 40s. Confidence: Medium

Tell a friend about CWG: E-mail this forecast

By Dan Stillman  | December 2, 2009; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Saturday snow chance still on the maps


Question on the forecast for Saturday:

I understand that if the storm tracks off the coast, it will limit precip, by why would temps increase to the low 40s as opposed to dropping to the mid 30s? I would think that if the storm tracked off the coast, but not to the point we didn't get precip, the temps would drop as opposed to rise. Unless of course, it tracked so for to the east that the cold air would not be drawn in. Thanks!

Posted by: snowlover | December 2, 2009 6:36 AM | Report abuse


If the storm is too far offshore, precip won't be heavy enough (if there's any at all) to cool temps sufficiently for snow to stick or it could even melt to rain.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 9:12 AM | Report abuse

It's snowing outside Fort Worth, TX this morning. Is this shaping up to be a replay of last winter for us?

Posted by: jburksva | December 2, 2009 9:30 AM | Report abuse

I personally believe that it will "snow" this weekend. Whether it sticks is highly questionable (at best), but I do feel that flakes will be in the air...

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 10:47 AM | Report abuse

I generally agree, Josh. The surface low location is still troublesome in that it's too far offshore (not that it can't change), but models are still consistent in pushing some nice upper level energy by and there's little doubt if that happens we'll get some precip. If rates are too low during the day it will sure be hard for it to accumulate, but I'm still interested as some changes can make it more.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 11:35 AM | Report abuse

We've started to get some sprinkles in the Blue Ridge Mtns west of DC. Somewhat interestingly, our temp has fallen to 39F from an earlier hi of 44.8.

Posted by: spgass1 | December 2, 2009 11:38 AM | Report abuse

A new Snow Lover's Crystal Ball has been posted.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 11:54 AM | Report abuse

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