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Posted at 5:10 PM ET, 12/ 4/2009

First snow of season on the way for Saturday

By Ian Livingston

Accumulations on the order of 2-4" possible

* Winter Weather Advisory from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday *
* E-mails show perils of 'activist' science | Photo contest winners *
* Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Crews prepare for snow *

Our first snow event of the season is on track to arrive tomorrow. The big question is how much snow and how big of an impact. Highs today reached the upper 40s to near 50 and ground temperatures are relatively warm, but temperatures are on their way down with chances of some accumulating snow tomorrow on the rise.

Through Tonight: We're cloudy with temperatures steadily dropping toward overnight lows in the mid-30s to near 40. Tomorrow's highs are likely to occur close to midnight as temperatures drop through the day. Some scattered light rain showers are possible toward dawn.

Saturday Morning: Light precipitation should increase in coverage during the morning. It should be in the form of rain in many spots, though a rain/snow mix is not out of the question. Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s and falling.

Saturday Afternoon & Evening: Heavier precipitation will spread over the area during the afternoon and should change to all snow as temperatures fall to near and below freezing west of town and into the low-and-mid 30s elsewhere. Some accumulation is likely, especially from late afternoon into evening when roads, mainly untreated and less-traveled ones, could become slippery. Snow should begin winding down around 7-10 p.m.

Saturday Night: Some snow showers could persist through midnight. Overnight lows from the mid-20s to around freezing could create early-morning patches of black ice.

Accumulations: Total accumulations on the order of 2-4" are possible, with the highest totals likely to be in the northern and western suburbs where temperatures are coldest, and lowest totals in the District and points south and east. As is the case with most winter storms, this forecast is still fluid. Less or more snow is still possible. We'll continue to monitor.

Tell a friend about CWG: E-mail this forecast

See Camden Walker's full forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

By Ian Livingston  | December 4, 2009; 5:10 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Rain then snow to bring sloppy, slick mess

Comments

Nicely done, Ian. Just the right amount of information for the general public.

Posted by: NoVaSnow | December 4, 2009 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Had some good help today! CWG e-mail chain flying back and forth. ;-) Let's hope this holds and is the start of a great winter.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Get your outdoor plants inside now if you don't want them to freeze.

Posted by: andrewgerst@hotmail.com | December 4, 2009 2:52 PM | Report abuse

I am about 8 miles due south of BWI, and looking to be in the "bulls eye," lets just hope I get enough cold air for 2-4"+

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 2:53 PM | Report abuse

I'm skeptical, but if you all say so, I'll "go on your ace", as they say.

Shame, ruins my plans and weekend.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 4, 2009 3:00 PM | Report abuse

One quibble though. Temps got right about where they were supposed to today. And clouds were certainly in every forecast I saw last night.

So, I don't think any of conditions today actually helped any more than they were supposed to help....or so it seems

Posted by: ThinkSpring | December 4, 2009 3:09 PM | Report abuse

Hmmm. We've gone from "maybe" to "dusting" to "maybe an inch" to " 2-4" are possible".

Roads are going to be nuts tomorrow, even if it doesn't stick.


Posted by: wiredog | December 4, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring, overall it's minor (re sun/no sun). Sun angle is low this time of year, rates can overcome warmth on the ground, but for roads etc it could matter a little. It is a little cooler today than expected and by and large there are more clouds as well.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

wiredog, I think the main issue is that models were unsure as to whether we would get precip from the coastal or just the upper energ passing by. While both options have been on the table off and on throughout the week the coastal had appeared to be too far east much of the time. Today everything really seems to be coming together to say that's not the case. I alluded to seasonal trends several times this week and things are fitting into that, for now.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

The 18z NAM would suggest more (~.75 QPF) - are you thinking this starts as rain/sleet before changing to snow, or just that the ratios are lower than 10:1?

Posted by: worldtraveler | December 4, 2009 3:20 PM | Report abuse

@worldtraveler

As forecast above indicates, not expecting much in the way of accumulation to begin until afternoon.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Oh, December 5th how I love thee. Is this the fourth or fifth time that we get our first snow on 12/5 this decade? Who else is getting the feeling that the NAM may be our model for the near future...

Posted by: DullesARC | December 4, 2009 3:26 PM | Report abuse

The pending storm, snow or otherwise, stems directly from major events evolving in the atmospheric circulation over the central Pacific. Specifically, reference is to development of a better than textbook example of Omega Blocking (view figure as the block being over the Pacific, not North America)

These developments in turn appear related to the interaction of waves coming across central Asia and WPAC tropical systems in the background of an El Nino. I plan to post more about this next week in the context of where and how our winter weather often originates (non geeky).


Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Snow! Snow! Snow! Snow!

Posted by: mjwies11 | December 4, 2009 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Should I cancel my 2-year-old's birthday party on Sunday late morning? I don't want parents risking their necks!

Posted by: LikeaPanda | December 4, 2009 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Re: two year old's birthday party...
do you think 4 inches of snow would have people risking their necks? Where are you from, Florida?

Posted by: snoinmclean | December 4, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse

No accumulation map? :(

Posted by: PeterBethesda | December 4, 2009 4:24 PM | Report abuse

CWG: Why does it snow EVERY December 5th? I know this sounds strange, but I'm pretty sure it has snowed at least 3 or 4 of the last 5 December 5th's. Maybe I'm crazy...

Posted by: JTF- | December 4, 2009 4:35 PM | Report abuse

snoinmclean: Are you new to the area? Have you seen how people drive when there's just one inch expected?

Posted by: LikeaPanda | December 4, 2009 4:42 PM | Report abuse

snoinmclean

Your snide, sarcastic response to LikeaPanda is uncalled for and, in fact, very misleading. Did you ever drive in 1" of wet slippery snow with young kids in the car?? Either you have not or could care less about the safety of children whether your own or not.

LikeaPanda

Forecaster responsibilities are to provide the best weather information possible, but decision making is in the hands of users of that information. Having said that, road conditions COULD be hazardous early on Sunday morning but PROBABLY improve by later in the morning. This personal interpretation of the forecast is not hedging, just saying "I (nor likely anyone else) is able to guarantee anything at this time.

If I were in your position (and have been there myself in the past) the best bet is to wake up early on Sunday, look out the window and use common sense in deciding.

If you MUST decide before then, I always hedge on the side of caution - better to cancel and deal with it turning out to have been unnecessary than give the OK only to have conditions turn out to be unsafe.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Milk, bread, toilet paper!!! Ahhh!

Posted by: mfrieden | December 4, 2009 4:53 PM | Report abuse

@CWG - Is a snowfall accumulation map going to be posted?

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 4:54 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover and others...

We'll get a map up, but probably not until late tonight (11 pm or midnight) after we get the next model runs in. But a general 2-4 is what we're going with for now.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 4:59 PM | Report abuse

Milk, bread, toilet paper!!! Ahhh!
====

BEER!!! Don't forget the beer!

Posted by: mason08 | December 4, 2009 5:01 PM | Report abuse

I don't know what I enjoy more, the anticipation of the snow, the snow itself, or all the fun blogging about the upcoming snow! I guess I enjoy it all! Cheers to all the snowlovers out there!

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 5:07 PM | Report abuse

snoinmclean

Your snide, sarcastic response to LikeaPanda is uncalled for and, in fact, very misleading. Did you ever drive in 1" of wet slippery snow with young kids in the car?? Either you have not or could care less about the safety of children whether your own or not.

===

Uh... People do that all the time in places that don't shut down due to weather. They aren't uncaring, or bad parents. They just know how to do it. The main adjustment is to just do everything in slow motion (accelerating, braking, turning). Failure to do so puts you into the car in front of you or off the road. People around here are just giant wimps when in comes to winter precip, so they never learn how to do that.

FWIW... I grew up in California, and cut my winter driving teeth driving mountain roads in the Sierra Nevada. They tend not to salt those roads because of they're in National Forest or are water supply for the cities.

Posted by: mason08 | December 4, 2009 5:08 PM | Report abuse

I apologize if I offended anyone with my earlier comment. I do indeed have children of my own. I am not from here but am from the midwest where we had type weather as we do here. And yes, I realize there are many more people on the road in the metropolitan area than there were back home. I am truly sorry.

Posted by: snoinmclean | December 4, 2009 5:10 PM | Report abuse

"Should I cancel my 2-year-old's birthday party on Sunday late morning? I don't want parents risking their necks!"
_________________________________________________

Tell me that this is a joke.

Posted by: MKadyman | December 4, 2009 5:13 PM | Report abuse

Having grown up in this area, I can confidently say that a December snowstorm in Washington is a fairly rare weather event, even during the good snow years of the '70's and '80's. Have a series of snowstorms land on December 5 this decade is quite amazing. I think our recent Dec 5 snowstorms are: 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 5:41 PM | Report abuse

mason08

You assume everyone knows how to drive in snow, of if they haven't learned, tough! That attitude gets people killed. I cut my winter driving skills in Massachusetts. But even if I do everything right, all it takes is one idiot who does not to make for a very bad day. And for me it's a no-brainer, when my grandkids would be in the car, to be a
"wimp" rather than sorry by risking all for a birthday party or anything else. What is it about this that you don't get?

Thanks for the apology, snoinmclean

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 5:57 PM | Report abuse

@LikeaPanda, Likely you'll celebrate your two-year-old's day anyway. (I mean, you've wrapped the presents or baked the cake already, right?) Just leave it up to the other parents and let them know that you'll understand if they feel it is unsafe for them (oh, and mean it).

I'm more keen to change my plans to go out Saturday night now because of the snow than not, but I would be riding metro.

Posted by: prokaryote | December 4, 2009 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Back for another winter and looking forward to tomorrow's event! Good to see some familiar faces here.

I always enjoy the anticipation leadning up to a potential snowstorm the best. I seriously do feel like I need to go to the store tonight... it's just embedded in my psyche I guess, after living here my entire life. I'll have to check our TP stash when I get home!

My call: Cold air has trouble making it over the mountains into the area, rain for a while, mass disappointment, "BUST" posts, followed by a changeover to snow, a heavy burst here and there, general happiness, and still ending up with CWG's 2-4 inch range.

Posted by: SkywalkerSS | December 4, 2009 6:09 PM | Report abuse

I have a birthday dinner Saturday evening that my family will be attending, complete with cars full of young nieces and nephews. You bet I'll reschedule if there is any question about the roads (one group is driving Leesburg to Arlington). Yes, I will change it to a Sunday lunch if I have any question at all about the road conditions. Why wouldn't one err on the side of caution?

Oh, and I'm from Florida and am NOT good driving in the snow, so I most definitely stay off the roads. I don't need to prove a point on whether I know what I'm doing or not. I don't. I also don't

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 4, 2009 6:16 PM | Report abuse

oops- posted before I was done!

I was going to say, I also don't need to prove my snow driving prowess (which doesn't exist anyways). Silly!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 4, 2009 6:17 PM | Report abuse

@SkywalkerSS you sound the veteran of the CWG site like myself! Always bust posts, and then things usually fall in the CWG range. I can't say I haven't been guilty of posting a bust or two.....did I just say two busts:)

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 6:18 PM | Report abuse

Skywalker, that sounds reasonable. The thermometer just started to budge and we're still at 48, so it's a long road ahead to 32, and the precip is going to come on quick once we head toward morning.

Posted by: fleeciewool | December 4, 2009 6:38 PM | Report abuse

SnowinMclean I apologize for my remark. I honestly thought that it was a prank until I read through the posts before it.

The truth is that very, very few people are injured or killed in snow related wrecks. I doubt seriously that any roads (besides rural residential streets) will be snow covered. It will be like a rain event as far as driving is concerned.

Posted by: MKadyman | December 4, 2009 6:43 PM | Report abuse

ANY UPDATE FROM CWG????

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 6:50 PM | Report abuse

Long-time reader; love you guys. But. In re this, from SteveT:

"Did you ever drive in 1" of wet slippery snow with young kids in the car?? Either you have not or could care less about the safety of children whether your own or not."

And this:

"What is it about this that you don't get?"

I expect that sort of flat-out incivility from the occasional troll, NOT from a moderator of a well-respected site. I have small children, and have driven with them in snow, more than once, and in fact I care very deeply about their safety and the safety of everybody, of all ages, on the road.

Driving in snow is neither easy nor fun, but it is a skill that everyone should learn -- it would make the roads much safer in wintertime, and I think we can all agree about that. Regarding Like a Panda's dilemma, I'm no expert but it seems to me that it's a bit early to make that call -- let's see what this particular storm does! But I did want to go on record as being deeply offended by the insinuation that I and other posters "don't care about children" because I/we don't believe people should cancel afternoon parties in estimated 40 degree weather and hole up at home just because it happened to snow the day before.

Posted by: kate_nagy | December 4, 2009 6:53 PM | Report abuse

No new guidance for any real shifts yet. Last set pretty much held. Would only say the 2" number could be high further south and east one goes. Temperatures at the surface will be marginal so it's a forecast with some bust potential on both sides still.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 6:55 PM | Report abuse

Chocolate. I am out of chocolate.

Going Christmas shopping tomorrow morning. The weather should be perfect for it. Then I can stay home all nice and warm while watching the winter wonderland through the window.

Just FYI, Austin had much the same prediction. Some schools shut down. It's all about what you are used to. And in this area, snow suprises a lot of people every year. Better to be safe than sorry. The kid is 2. Won't even notice if the party is cancelled.

Posted by: epjd | December 4, 2009 7:02 PM | Report abuse

>

You don't need to apologize. The OP overreacted to a true statement, which is that people around here don't know how to drive in snow. He made the rude assumption that you don't care about kids which is just immmature. I actually interpreted your statement as that people drive nuts instead of careful. I grew up in this area, and one thing you will learn is that it's all about "defensive driving" here. I think the way people drive here in the snow has more to do with the fact they they want you to get out of their way more than anything.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 4, 2009 7:13 PM | Report abuse

From Katie:

Long-time reader; love you guys. But. In re this, from SteveT:

"Did you ever drive in 1" of wet slippery snow with young kids in the car?? Either you have not or could care less about the safety of children whether your own or not."

And this:

"What is it about this that you don't get?"

I expect that sort of flat-out incivility from the occasional troll, NOT from a moderator of a well-respected site. I have small children, and have driven with them in snow, more than once, and in fact I care very deeply about their safety and the safety of everybody, of all ages, on the road.

Driving in snow is neither easy nor fun, but it is a skill that everyone should learn -- it would make the roads much safer in wintertime, and I think we can all agree about that. Regarding Like a Panda's dilemma, I'm no expert but it seems to me that it's a bit early to make that call -- let's see what this particular storm does! But I did want to go on record as being deeply offended by the insinuation that I and other posters "don't care about children" because I/we don't believe people should cancel afternoon parties in estimated 40 degree weather and hole up at home just because it happened to snow the day before.

My response:

Ditto! Steve T's response was way out of line. Sorry to say, but it sounds like someone spends too much time monitoring weather maps and not enough time practicing social skills. You don't question whether someone cares about their own kids...you just don't!

Posted by: swishjobs | December 4, 2009 7:20 PM | Report abuse

Looking forward to the accumulation map, but out of curiosity, am I in 2" or 4" range out in Odenton. MD? I am guees the 2" range, but one can only hope!

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 7:26 PM | Report abuse

Steve T:

My comment was out of line. While I wholeheartedly disagreed with your response to one of the posters, I understand that it can be frustrating when there are crazy drivers out there (whether it's an inch or a blizzard). There's a big difference driving in dry vs wet snow. Again, my apologies.

Posted by: swishjobs | December 4, 2009 7:44 PM | Report abuse

And for me it's a no-brainer, when my grandkids would be in the car, to be a
"wimp" rather than sorry by risking all for a birthday party or anything else. What is it about this that you don't get?

===

What is it about "two inches of snow isn't a severe driving hazard if you respect it and maintain situational awareness" that you don't get? Don't tell me you had that attitude in MA, because, having married a Metro West girl, I know they would have laughed at you and you would have been a total homebody. Jesus... If i'd had that attitude when I lived in Maine, I wouldn't have moved from November to April. Like learning to drive a stick, at some point it's highly likely that you WILL need to drive in the snow. Two to four inches happens enough around here that people should learn how to handle it, yet they refuse to. It's ridiculous, and a worthy target of ridicule.

Winter happens every year. Deal with it.

Posted by: mason08 | December 4, 2009 7:49 PM | Report abuse

I think you're all being WAY too sensitive, and the apology/attack stuff is beyond hackneyed.

Nobody is an expert at driving in any condition. As a graduate of many different driving schools, the hardest road to travel is a straight one. Everybody just slow down, calm down and enjoy the snow!

Posted by: TheMot | December 4, 2009 7:51 PM | Report abuse

The blog gets very emotional when the prospect of snow is involved. The tension rises, many posts get typed in all caps with frantic questions/lamentations and people might snipe a bit. Then, if the snow comes, those of us that are snow lovers come on and wax poetic, happy again. If it's a bust, we come on with very bleak, disappointed posts saying things like, "Never again will I get this excited!" or "I knew it! Nothing good EVER happens to me!". It's like group therapy.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | December 4, 2009 8:02 PM | Report abuse

Can we all get back to the issue at hand, which is the snow event to take place tomorrow! Mods, please do what needs to be done so that this takes place,

Posted by: snowlover | December 4, 2009 8:07 PM | Report abuse

@Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang

I knew I wasn't crazy about the Dec 5 snow curse (or blessing?)! And several of those Dec 5 events have been respectable... 4-6 inches for at least one, perhaps.

Posted by: JTF- | December 4, 2009 8:15 PM | Report abuse

I'll weigh in. I cut my snow teeth in Minnesota and spent a year delivering for Domino's. The OP snarked about potentially dangerous weather and deserved a smack down. Another point--a lot of people who live here (and I apologize for all caps) AREN'T USED TO DRIVING IN THE SNOW! I've driven through poor visibility due to blowing snow as well as freezing rain on I-35 from Minnesota to Missouri. The average speed was about 15 mph.

Yes, I've had the occasional private chuckle about 1" of snow shutting down Dallas. However, people die in weather like that and it's no laughing matter. Sadly, there will be people driving tomorrow night who have no clue what they're doing. Some of them will be hurt. Some may die. It's not a joke.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | December 4, 2009 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Going 2 watch my 5 yr Granddaughter walk in the Spotsy. County Christmas parade at 2, hopefully in the snow & not rain. Must admit I didn't expect any snow until late Jan. & will gladly eat crow if I get at least 1" out of this. Looks like Tech is off 2 the Chic-Fil-A Bowl Dec 31, so it's off 2 Atlanta on the 30th, so no snow while I'm gone.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 4, 2009 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Emotions aside...it would be nice to get a little snow here tomorrow. While I prefer the warmth, I'm not a fan of snowless winters. I just hope it happens late morning so I can get a little jog in before I start slippin and slidin. Cheers!

Posted by: swishjobs | December 4, 2009 8:55 PM | Report abuse

I technically know how to drive in snow but choose not to because I drive a tiny 2 door car and am constantly terrified by the SUVs that speed past me thinking that being a SUV means you don't need to have common sense. If one of those collided with me, I'd have no chance. It's not all about your personal skills.

I'm excited about ANY snow this early in the season. It doesn't even need to be a big snow event, just some cosmetic snow (to steal an apropos phrase someone used in a earlier CWG post comments) to get me in the winter mood while decorating the tree. I'm just hoping we at least get that. I'm usually too far east (Alexandria) for the big numbers.

Posted by: kallieh | December 4, 2009 8:57 PM | Report abuse

OMG Snow! and a blizzard is predicted for the 17th so lets cross our fingers and hope the models stay true!

Posted by: samdman95 | December 4, 2009 9:06 PM | Report abuse

WMAL just called for 3-5 inches inside DC with more to the West? Would that mean that Dulles to Leesburg could get 6-8 inches?

Posted by: CMan62 | December 4, 2009 9:06 PM | Report abuse

The comment I was replying to initially made light of the potential dangers of driving in snow, a question of justifiable concern from LikeaPanda . Anyone who drives in snow/ice conditions must weigh the risks, especially with kids in the car, and my remarks were intended to voice this as shockingly as possible. Of course everyone cares about kids safety, but may be inclined for whatever reason to believe - or led to believe - there is little additional risk when driving in snow/ice versus dry conditions. There is - period. It might be less for those with necessary driving skills in winter weather, but most in this region absent such skills. Driving in the snow covered roads in mountainous California does not necessarily translate to the DC Metro region, which prompted the "what don't you get?" . Defensive driving will only go so far even if you are an expert in handling ice/snow on roads.

I too am guilty of making fun and mocking drivers and driving in snow in these parts. But, beyond that, there is a real issue of personal safety for yourself and passengers. If you read my earlier comments carefully, you'll find I never advised anyone to do this or that, just what I would do. If that makes me a wimp, so be it. BTW, to imply I was suggesting staying off the roads with temps in the 40's is ridiculous - we were talking about below freezing temps early Sun AM.

Whatever, LET IT SNOW, even if
Nothing Takes Longer than Waiting for Snow

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 9:08 PM | Report abuse

There are two things that get me excited like I'm a little kid again:

Snow Storms and Steam Trains

We've already dropped to 36.3F in the Blue Ridge Mtns of VA tonight so I'm optimistic for an all snow event tomorrow here.

Posted by: spgass1 | December 4, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Oh, a possibility of light snow. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Being so close to the Atlantic coast, with compressed temperature zones, and with ground temps so high, this is a non event. Everyone needs to take a deep breath, go about their chores on Saturday, drive carefully, and quit worrying.

This is advice from a true native who has lived in the Washington D.C. area for 60+ years. I remember a major (8-10 inch) snowstorm back in early December of 1957, and also survived the Veteran's Day storm of 1987 (11-12 inches).

Granted, the number of non-natives living in the DC area since then has changed the equation, but the advice stands. At the worst, this is a minor wet snow event, and recent moderate temperatures promise warm roads. It won't be any worse than a typical cold December rain.

Now, if you have an SUV, an aggressive attitude, a blackberry and a cell phone, and plan to use all of these devices at the same time, then you are a menace even if the weather is dry with 80 degree temperatures.

Posted by: MillPond2 | December 4, 2009 9:12 PM | Report abuse

I have a stupid question...in what fashion is the precip supposed to materialize? Judging from the current radar I'm assuming that precip will start filling in to the north of that 2nd batch...? The reason I say this is because it looks like kinda dry on the radar right now...I didn't know if that should be cause for concern.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

Posted by: swishjobs | December 4, 2009 9:19 PM | Report abuse

RAIN!

Rainman Greg

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | December 4, 2009 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Noooo say it ain't so rainman!

Posted by: PeterBethesda | December 4, 2009 9:57 PM | Report abuse

Figures, this is my weekend to work the snow mapping product and our storm here should be reaching peak right when it's due. Looks like I'm going to have a lot of forecasting to do tomorrow. I hope all of you will help me out with some ground-cover snow reports!

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 4, 2009 10:01 PM | Report abuse

My question is about the timing. I would love to take snowy day in dc photos.

Posted by: SPS1 | December 4, 2009 10:05 PM | Report abuse

Is it possible to come to this sight for winter weather updates without scrolling through so many: "I'm from an area with bad winter. I know how to drive/survive - and you guys are wimps" posts? I mean these boards are so quiet during spring/summer/fall. But once the mention of snow, the bullies and complainers come from all over and flood this board. Most of come here for updates and intelligent weather discussions, not "you're a wimp 'cause you don't want to drive your kid around in icy/snowy weather." It's getting ridiculous.

Posted by: schrute | December 4, 2009 10:06 PM | Report abuse

Dumb q, but I haven't had time (or internet, thanks Hughes.net) to pull up radar. Which direction is the precip coming from? Will we see precip to the east first, or the west?

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 4, 2009 10:35 PM | Report abuse

DANG! I would miss the snowfall.Down at msstate even some snow showers here. Lots of people sayin unusual cold for december here.And a early season snowfall for backhome in VA thats whatsup. Might be a Big winter in store just have a feeling im going to miss a big storm ..Great to see comments back up to a descent amount for snowevents

Posted by: jmc732msstate | December 4, 2009 10:50 PM | Report abuse

Weathergrrl, per FOX 5 our storm will come together over the Carolinas and they just had a graphic showing the precip will start in the west first in the DC area.

Posted by: spgass1 | December 4, 2009 10:52 PM | Report abuse

Still 47 degrees out there yo - it's a long way down to 32. I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out of the thermometer and I think it's going to be a long night.

Posted by: fleeciewool | December 4, 2009 10:54 PM | Report abuse

No-o-o-o-o-o! We want snow south and east, too!

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | December 4, 2009 11:04 PM | Report abuse

Bob Ryan just said there's a 40% chance of 5-6 inches of snow for DC tomorrow...

Posted by: PeterBethesda | December 4, 2009 11:05 PM | Report abuse

thanks spgass1 .... hope it starts as snow and not rain. we're west,in Fauquier, but just over the PW Co line. We're in the xmas parade tomorrow at 10 ... would rather it be snowy and picturesque than sodden in cold drizzle ....

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 4, 2009 11:10 PM | Report abuse

not that this is determinative, and I will believe it when i see it, but it does smell like snow is coming outside (arlington) =)

Posted by: kudzu13 | December 4, 2009 11:23 PM | Report abuse

Weathergrrl, actually I might have misinterpreted that graphic... it might have been for snow (not precip in general). Bob Ryan just said Southern Maryland would get the rain first. We're just over the Fauquier line in Warren Co.

Posted by: spgass1 | December 4, 2009 11:23 PM | Report abuse

"Is it possible to come to this sight for winter weather updates without scrolling through so many: "I'm from an area with bad winter. I know how to drive/survive - and you guys are wimps" posts? I mean these boards are so quiet during spring/summer/fall. But once the mention of snow, the bullies and complainers come from all over and flood this board. Most of come here for updates and intelligent weather discussions, not "you're a wimp 'cause you don't want to drive your kid around in icy/snowy weather." It's getting ridiculous."

This.

It's a shame that a blog about weather needs moderators and that grown adults have to start insulting each other. I've seen 12 year old's act more civil towards each other. This is starting to be like reading you tube comments.

Posted by: Havoc737 | December 4, 2009 11:28 PM | Report abuse

If I stopped and got milk and bread (already had T.P.) for nothing, I'm going to be really ticked off!

Where's our friend who allegedly drank himself into oblivion during our snow storm last winter? Is he around, or is he still in detox?

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | December 4, 2009 11:32 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Havoc737. kudos. Now, can we please get an update on the 11pm models? My wife and I are charging the camera batteries in hopes of visiting the National Christmas Tree during a nice blanket of snow. :-) This is a nice early treat to the holidays.

Posted by: schrute | December 4, 2009 11:34 PM | Report abuse

Still waiting for some more cold air, we're at 36.7F... about the same as 2 hours ago.

But the NWS issued a winter storm warning for 4-6" of snow along and west of the Blue Ridge so I guess it's still coming... or else evaporative cooling will get us where we need to be...?

Posted by: spgass1 | December 4, 2009 11:45 PM | Report abuse

Just looked at NWS Mosaic. Does it appear that the moisture on the map is moving NE away from DC? Everything that is currently on the map appears to stay away from DC. :-( Please tell me I'm way wrong. lol

Posted by: schrute | December 4, 2009 11:45 PM | Report abuse

A snowy weekend!
Snow is lovely to WALK in - Enjoy!
It's like magic how quiet the Universe is with a layer of snow.
(Drive if you must...carefully.)

I'm a former upstate NY'er who loves DC and I never say anything ugly about DC drivers cause I can't tell where folks are from by just looking at them.

Posted by: 2belinda | December 4, 2009 11:59 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | December 5, 2009 12:03 AM | Report abuse

Evening everyone ... we're putting the finishing touches on the next update. should be up soon, so stay up a few more minutes ok?

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | December 5, 2009 12:15 AM | Report abuse

Yes, I've had the occasional private chuckle about 1" of snow shutting down Dallas. However, people die in weather like that and it's no laughing matter. Sadly, there will be people driving tomorrow night who have no clue what they're doing. Some of them will be hurt. Some may die. It's not a joke.


===

People die because they drive too fast and follow too closely for the conditions. That holds true for all conditions from 9 AM, clear, and heavy traffic to an empty road on a snowy night. As you know, no doubt, the reason you drive 15 miles per hour in a snowy white-out or foggy grey-out is to to both reduce the chance of an accident and to reduce the severity of an accident, should one occur. That's something that, oddly enough, has yet to occur to many in this region.

Posted by: mason08 | December 5, 2009 2:29 AM | Report abuse

There is - period. It might be less for those with necessary driving skills in winter weather, but most in this region absent such skills.
==
>Learned helplessness.
==
Driving in the snow covered roads in mountainous California does not necessarily translate to the DC Metro region, which prompted the "what don't you get?" . Defensive driving will only go so far even if you are an expert in handling ice/snow on roads.
==
>Those roads had plenty of clueless flatlanders on them. They were also windier, often darker, and we measured snow in "DC STORMS"/hr. Driving in snow is the same everywhere. There is nothing special about this region's foul-weather driving that makes it more difficult than anywhere else. The principles are:

Slow down.
Increase your follow.
Look out for the obviously clueless, and give them enough space to to sliding off the road w/o taking you out.

Sure.... Someone might take you out, but I saw a nasty looking five-car wreck on the US-1 overpass over the Beltway in Alexandria earlier this evening. The roads were perfectly dry. I'd be willing to bet that most accidents in winter conditions are of the single-car variety.

Posted by: mason08 | December 5, 2009 2:49 AM | Report abuse

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