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PM Update: Mild air departing behind cold front
At least several days of chilly sunshine ahead
* Weekend snow hype? | Mixed expectations in Copenhagen *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Traffic *
A cold front moving through the area is putting an end to our brief mild spell. After a fairly cloudy and warm start, most spots were able to climb to highs in the mid-and-upper 50s. Cooler air is beginning to re-enter the region and winds are kicking up from the northwest, which will eventually help make things feel even chillier as we progress through the night and into tomorrow.
Through Tonight: Under clearing skies, cold air filters back into the area on a sometimes gusty northwest wind. Lows should drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Winds up to about 15 or 20 mph at times.
Tomorrow (Wednesday): Lots of sun is expected on Wednesday, along with a continued northwest breeze and cold dry air. Highs should reach near 40 into the lower 40s most spots -- maybe a few mid 40s mixed in. Winds will tend to decrease late in the day, teeing us up for another cold night.
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Weather disasters: Natural disasters hit a decade low this year according to the U.N. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. But, of the 245 disasters noted this year, 224 (about 91%) were attributed to the weather. Weather-related natural disasters caused around 7,000 deaths and resulted in nearly $15 billion (U.S.) in damages.
By
Ian Livingston
| December 15, 2009; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:
Forecasts
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Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 15, 2009 8:22 PM | Report abuse
There's also Category 5 severe tropical cyclone Laurence affecting parts of Western Australia. Our hurricane season is over but the Southern Hemisphere is just beginning theirs.
Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 15, 2009 8:29 PM | Report abuse
Yeah, the Euro was decent though it was technically probably a "near miss" for many. It looked like a few inches of snow around here though. Definitely a model you want on your side if you're a snow lover.
We'll see what happens with tonight and tomorrow's guidance but there still is lots of potential for a good storm.
Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2009 9:03 PM | Report abuse
The 0z GFS has a kind of strange look to it with a sort of strung-out, double-barrel low as it comes up the coast. Its depiction confirms my suspicions that the models still don't have a very good handle on what's going to transpire. The upstream energy (and how it digs) will likely end up to be the key to whether the system phases or not, IMHO [Non weather-weenies, apologies for the above gibberish.] I still personally believe it will snow this weekend...
Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | December 15, 2009 11:40 PM | Report abuse
That Euro did look suspiciously like AccuWeather's near-coast storm track.
I agree with Josh on the possibility for some snow. Most likely bet seems to be the "accumulating snow shower" scenario where we whiten the ground with about an inch or so. A track up the coast but hugging it could give us considerably more. A lot seems to depend on the persistence of a blocking pattern over Greenland, and whether we can establish a cold high over Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Several inches of snow could hang around through Christmas.
Posted by: Bombo47jea | December 16, 2009 12:49 AM | Report abuse
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According to the final extended forecast discussion, the ECMWF [Euro] model still brings Sunday's system close enough to the East Coast for significant snow. Other models tend to take the storm well out to sea, south of Bermuda and towards the Azores as the system weakens.
GFS runs should be closely watched since the GFS sometimes brings storms westward and tends to come into agreement with the Euro as time progresses. The situation this weekend is still somewhat "in play" though AccuWeather may be hyping the scenario. Trough extensions to the west could bring snow well inland. At the least snow flurries or accumulating snow showers may still be a good bet over the weekend.