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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 12/ 2/2009

Saturday snow chance still on the maps

By Dan Stillman

* Rainy p.m. rush: Full Forecast | Winter road warriors at the ready *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday-Saturday night
Probability of Accumulating Snow: 25%
Most Likely Potential Impact:

Not much has changed regarding the threat of snow on Saturday into Saturday night. It's likely that we'll have cold temperatures in place (daytime highs may not get out of the 30s) as a storm forms off the Southeast U.S. coast and moves northward.

The two main scenarios we're watching for are...

A: Whether the storm tracks close enough to the coast to bring precipitation that would be heavy enough to cool the atmosphere enough to support snow (or a rain/snow mix) rather than just rain; or

B: Whether the storm tracks far enough offshore to keep precipitation on the lighter side (and thus favor rain over snow) or even miss the area altogether.

A glancing blow along the lines of scenario B is the front-runner of the two scenarios for the moment, but scenario A is still in the race. Even in the case of scenario A, though, any accumulation of snow would probably be on the minor end of things.

Stay tuned for updates.

By Dan Stillman  | December 2, 2009; 11:30 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Rain on track to slow p.m. commute
Next: December weather: expect anything/everything


Ah, one of my favorite parts of winter... Incessantly logging on to CWG hoping the 25% happens.

Posted by: emhochberg | December 2, 2009 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Let the December 5th streak continue! How many other recent years has it snowed on 12/5? If I add 12/5 as Snow in DC Day to my calendar, think it will catch on? ;-)

Posted by: CM_in_Fairfax | December 2, 2009 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Recently it has snowed on Dec. 5 in 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2007.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Jim in NOVA here:

I really hope this is either snow or turns into a fish storm. If there's one thing I've had enough of for two years, it's rain!

Posted by: jahutch | December 2, 2009 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Dag-nabbit, where'd it go?

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Try this link for Brian's synopsis!

Posted by: Registration1982 | December 2, 2009 2:49 PM | Report abuse

My hero

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 2:50 PM | Report abuse

I remain bullish, recent guidance is better again. I'm going down with the ship unless it takes on a lot of water the next day or so.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Please ellaborate on your "bullish" feeling. Bullish meaning an inch or two? Bullish meaning a bit more to move us into Winter Storm Watch mode? We want to know?!?!?!?!?

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | December 2, 2009 4:14 PM | Report abuse

stinkerflat1, "bullish" as in I think we'll see at least some snow... how much still very up in the air -- I think in the end temps will be a bigger issues than precip, though if we get a more wound up storm both could come together right. My initial guess from 11/30 was 1-2"+ in DC area... I have not yet changed that. Of course, I am not a meteorologist so I can make some 'crazed' calls in the medium range, lol.

My thoughts and numbers are mine alone, I would suggest using the official ideas here first! (though I have had a good streak with coastals lately) ;-)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 2, 2009 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Ian - thanks! This has to be the winter to put to rest the non-stop dissapointments of the past 6+ years worth of rainy, warm and dry winters. As Michael Jackson said - THIS IS IT!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | December 2, 2009 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Snow? Bring it on! I just bought a new Subaru Forester, and I'm ready for it!

Posted by: natsncats | December 2, 2009 6:42 PM | Report abuse

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