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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 12/10/2009

Sunday snow threat barely hanging on

By Josh Larson

* Windy and very cold: Full Forecast | Fall 2009: A season of soakers *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:Late Saturday night into Sunday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 30%
Most Likely Potential Impact:

We continue to watch for the potential for an area of low pressure to develop to our south on Saturday and spread moisture into our region Saturday night into Sunday. The problem for snow lovers is that the arrival of this system keeps getting pushed back, and at the same time, the cold air will be steadily eroding.

I think there's some chance we'll see a period of light snow early Sunday morning, but current indications are that the snow will change to sleet and/or rain -- significantly reducing accumulation potential.

The odds of getting an inch of snow are thus down from yesterday. Here are the various possibilities:

No snow: 35%
Dusting to coating (mainly on grass): 30%
1-3": 25%
3"+: 10%

As always, keep checking back for updates.

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Josh Larson  | December 10, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
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Just curious, looking at the 0 GFs and the 6 Gfs..those are two pretty divergent forecasts for the next week or so. The 0 has nothing on the coast, while the 6 has a blizzard. Any idea what is going on to precipitate the change?

Or is this just something meant to get my snowlovers heart pitter pattering for a white Xmas. LOL

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | December 10, 2009 11:43 AM | Report abuse

Kim, that's a good question... It's not unusual for storm representations to vary significantly from model run to model run. Also, the 6z and 18z model runs do not have as much data input as the 12z and 0z runs, so I tend to take those model runs a little less seriously. That said, the 12z run this morning looks kinder to snow-lovers than the 0z run last night. I think a brief period of snow is likely before a changeover to rain.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | December 10, 2009 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Well, at least that is something. :-) Although it is looking like our "weather event" for next week has pretty much vanished. *sniff*

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | December 10, 2009 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Just wondering. . .I've got friends coming up from Fredericksburg to Rockville Sunday (8-9ish) morning. Likely they'll have travel issues based on what you're seeing now?

Posted by: nonfrequentflyer | December 10, 2009 4:14 PM | Report abuse


There could be some light snow, but nothing that bad...It's hard to pin down exact details though. Check back tomorrow and Saturday for better info.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | December 10, 2009 5:25 PM | Report abuse

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