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Posted at 8:30 AM ET, 01/ 7/2010

Forecast: Snow tonight, then more wind & cold

By Josh Larson

Accumulations mostly light

* Winter Weather Advisory tonight N. of D.C. includes MoCo, LoCo *
* Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | E-mail forecast to a friend *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
6Not as windy today; yay! But light snow likely tonight.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: A.M. sun; p.m. clouds. Not as windy. 36-40. | Tonight: Cloudy; light snow likely. 25-29. | Tomorrow: A.M. flurries, then mostly cloudy & windy. 34-38. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Let's start with the good news: conditions over the coming few days should not come as a surprise as we've been advertising them since early this week. The bad news? (depending on your weather likes/dislikes): The forecast includes continued very cold conditions, some snow thrown in tonight -- though likely light amounts -- and windy conditions returning with vengeance Friday into much of the weekend, bringing uncomfortably frigid wind chills back to the region.

Today: The day starts off clear and frosty with morning temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s. These temperatures will warm to the mid-to-upper 30s in most spots by afternoon but -- for a nice change! -- we will not have to contend with significant wind or wind chills. You'll notice that clouds will increase as the day wears on ahead of our "Alberta Clipper" system. Confidence: High

ACCUMULATION MAP AND TIMELINE

5 PM to 8 PM TONIGHT
Clouds increase. Temps 32-36.
8 PM to 1 AM TONIGHT
Light snow develops west to east. Temps 29-33.
1 AM to 6 AM TOMORROW
Occasional snow. Temps 26-30.
6 AM to 9 AM TOMORROW
Snow ends west to east. Temps 27-32.

IMPACT FORECASTS

Tonight: We'll have overcast skies by early evening with light snow likely spreading over the area -- from west to east -- by mid-to-late evening. Periods of light snow will probably continue overnight with lows dropping to the mid-to-upper 20s area wide. Light accumulations are a decent possibility. Here are the accumulation chances as we see them now:

5%: No snow
35%: Dusting to 1"
35%: 1-2"
15%: 2-4"
10%: 4"+

We think the best bet is for accumulations of around an inch, although as little as a dusting to as much as a couple inches are within the likely range. There's an outside chance somebody in the metro region gets more than 2," but this disturbance is fast-moving and doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with.

Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the uncomfortably cold forecast into early next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter...

Tomorrow (Friday): We have the outside chance (<20%) of a lingering flurry tomorrow morning, but I expect the vast majority of the snow will be out of the area by dawn. We'll be left with cloudy skies and cold temperatures only rising to the mid-30s. As the day wears on, winds will kick up out of the northwest from 15-20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph as skies slowly clear. Wind chills will likely drop to the low 20s by evening rush. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: We're set up for a very cold Friday night. The more worrisome concern is that winds will stay in the 10-15 mph range, which will make overnight lows of 18-22 feel more like the low teens at times. That's extremely cold in my book. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

We're in store for a very cold Saturday. With what meteorologists term strong "cold air advection" (this just refers to winds blowing in cold air) over the region on Saturday, highs will struggle to make it out of the upper 20s area-wide despite mostly sunny skies. Unfortunately, persistent winds from the northwest in the 10-20 mph range will keep daytime temperatures feeling more like the teens. Clear and very cold again Saturday night with lows near 15-20 and wind chills in the single digits at times. Confidence: Medium-High

On Sunday winds will finally settle down to the point where the actual daytime highs near 30 will feel merely very cold as opposed to frigid. Also, note, it should be a quintessentially near-cloudless day as high pressure parks directly overhead. Clear and frigid once again Sunday night with lows in the mid-to-upper teens. Confidence: Medium-High

The outlook for Monday is for continued mostly sunny skies with slightly moderating afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 30s and overnight lows, along with clear skies, in the somewhat milder mid-20s. Confidence: Medium

By Josh Larson  | January 7, 2010; 8:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Cold weather in a hot climate

Comments

I say an inch for most of Anne Arundel County with a one hour delay for schools tomorrow.

Posted by: jcmcgrath1969 | January 7, 2010 5:54 AM | Report abuse

As "silly" as the GFS is (as many commenter's have referred to it) it has predicted this storm, (disturbance, or Clipper) for at least 6 days. I think that is impressive.

Posted by: ntrlsol | January 7, 2010 6:25 AM | Report abuse

interesting call gwg! fox is saying 2-4 for moco. i'm actually hoping it doesn't snow!!!

Posted by: jenniel73 | January 7, 2010 6:44 AM | Report abuse

Are we going to get light fluffy snow or heavy wet snow?

Posted by: WashingtonDame | January 7, 2010 8:15 AM | Report abuse

thanks Josh!

please do what you can to avert any more 16 inchers.

Posted by: miglefitz | January 7, 2010 8:18 AM | Report abuse

please do what you can to avert any more 16 inchers.

That's what she said. (sorry, too easy)

Posted by: Axel2 | January 7, 2010 9:01 AM | Report abuse

@WashingtonDame

Should be closer to the light, powdery variety rather than heavy/wet

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Do you want more than an inch?

Are you a snow-lover, or have you gotten sick of the white stuff?

Posted by: celestun100 | January 7, 2010 9:41 AM | Report abuse

An inch or two of the white stuff would be acceptable. However, I could do without anymore wind for the rest of the winter. So sick of freezing to death while my hat blows off.

Posted by: epjd | January 7, 2010 9:44 AM | Report abuse

Interesting that I keep hearing talk about this being the coldest winter in decades. Sure, it's been on the cold side lately, but nothing that extreme. Is this just hype?

Posted by: mickb1 | January 7, 2010 9:48 AM | Report abuse

@mickb1

Thanks for the comment ... I touched on this in yesterday's forecast post. It's not that the cold has been so extreme, but rather it's been very consistent.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2010 9:58 AM | Report abuse

Any chance of the windy weather cycle shifting to M-F next time around? I'm sick of not being able to take cardboard to the recycling center and running errands in a frozen stupor.

Posted by: greyK | January 7, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Rumors of a possible January thaw next week?

What say you, CWG? If it's true, how long might it last?

Thanks.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 7, 2010 10:29 AM | Report abuse

Oh, and I think

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 7, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

Weather Gang,

How close are we to seeing the Potomac River freezing along the edges? Particularly in the narrower part of the river up around Fletcher's BoatHouse and Chain Bridge, I would think this sustained cold would start to ice the river over...

Posted by: wilson7 | January 7, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

@Wilson7 -- There are already plenty of ice flows north of the Memorial Bridge. Not frozen all the way across, but pretty close in places.

Posted by: ah___ | January 7, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

how is that MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING WORKING FOR YA?

LMAO

Posted by: infantry11b4faus | January 7, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

I believe White's Ferry has been closed since Tuesday due to ice on the Potomac.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 7, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

Whee!

Posted by: chunche | January 7, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Any new info? Updated timeline? Anyone? Anyone? ...

Posted by: mandarb77 | January 7, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

@mandarb77

The information in this post reflects the latest...no need for revisions or updates since 8:30.

@ThinkSpring

Moderating temps look like a good bet by middle of next week.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Dear Weather Gang,

So far, this winter seems colder/snowier than usual for the the DC area. Do you expect this pattern to play out all winter? I miss those mild winters we usually have, with the occasional "warm" day to enjoy in winter.

Posted by: csaah | January 7, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

I suspect another big snow event during the usual period in mid-February. Otherwise, we may mainly see minor events or even a thaw or two. Probably mid-forties next week.

ThinkSpring is once again trying to ruin my meteorological winter.

Much of the snow seems to have disappeared via sublimation rather than melting. Only the biggest snow piles are left over from the December storm.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 7, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Except for the big snow, it has been a snowless winter for much of this area. Would prefer 3 6-7" snows rather an 1 big one.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 7, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

@csaah

It has been colder and snowier than average to date. But there are signs of a more moderate pattern starting next week.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

If I hear one more moron make a global warming joke I'm going to scream.

Posted by: mrdorkbutt | January 7, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

I think the last two weeks of January the cold will let up, but that February even into early March has the potential to be colder and possibly snowier than average...

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | January 7, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

@mrdorkbutt: So two global warming critics walk into an isobar...

:-)

Posted by: jkuchen | January 7, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

unfortunately global warming is not a joke, even if its tempting to call it one considering the total divergence from the "models" and "reality" for the past 10 years.

any excuse to ration the burning of carbon is too serious to be treated lightly.

Posted by: dummypants | January 7, 2010 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Okay, so is that "significant" potential for cold and snowy February and early March or is it like when your parents used to say "we'll see" potential when you asked for something?

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 7, 2010 5:05 PM | Report abuse

I'm still hating the italicized "potential"...

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 7, 2010 7:38 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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