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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 01/25/2010

Forecast: Strong winds and showers this morning

By Jason Samenow

Pattern flip to more winter-like weather this week

* Power outage maps for Dominion Electric | Pepco | BG&E *
* Outside now? Temps, clouds, webcam & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
3Horrible morning, but some afternoon improvement.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Showery thru early afternoon. Very windy. Near 60, falling late. | Tonight: Breezy, chance of rain or snow showers. Low-to-mid 30s. | Tomorrow: Becoming partly to mostly sunny and breezy. Low-to-mid 40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A strong cold front powering through the region will cause showers and gusty winds in many locations this morning. Allow extra time for your commute and do not try to drive through flooded roadways. After this morning's downpours and a brief push of mild air, the curtains will open for winter's second act (the last dozen days of warmer than average temperatures acted as an intermission). First, seasonably cold air will stream back into the region. Then, towards the end of the week, the possibility of snow returns.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Scattered showers this morning, some with heavy rain, will be coupled with very strong winds (of up to 50 mph). Power outages are possible. By mid-day, the heaviest rain will move east of the metro region and all of the rain should taper off during the early afternoon. The remainder of the daylight hours will be mostly cloudy and mild (with perhaps a few peeks of sun), with temperatures falling through the 50s. Winds from the south will shift to out of the west, at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Behind today's cold front, cooler air will streak into the region. An upper level disturbance to our south may (30% chance) trigger a few rain (along and east of I-95) and snow showers (west of I-95) late at night, with lows in the low-to-mid 30s. No snow accumulation is expected. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the week...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Chilly flow from the northwest will drive seasonably cold air back into the region. Under partly sunny skies, highs should reach the low 40s. But it will feel more like the 30s with winds from the northwest at 10-20 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Skies will be partly cloudy overnight with just a light breeze from the west. Temperatures will fall into the low-to-mid 20s in the colder suburbs to the upper 20s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Mostly sunny and seasonably cold Wednesday, with highs in the low 40s. Winds will be light under high pressure. Clear and cold Wednesday night with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

Thursday will likely begin on the sunny side, but high clouds will probably increase as the day wears on due to the approach of an Arctic cold front. Ahead of the front, it won't be terribly cold, with highs in the mid-40s. Snow (possibly starting as a mix or rain) may develop Thursday night (40% chance) as the front sinks south and an area of low pressure develops along it. Lows will be near 30. Confidence: Low-Medium

Snow may continue into Friday (40% chance) as low pressure passes to our south. The duration of the snow will depend on whether the low goes out to sea or turns up the coast. It will more than likely be cold, with highs in the low 30s. There's a slight (20%) chance snow continues into Friday night, with lows 20-25. Confidence: Low-Medium

Cold high pressure probably builds in for the weekend, although snow lasting into Saturday cannot be totally ruled out (20% chance). There is more confidence in the temperature forecast with highs in the (probably the low) 30s both days and lows in the teens to low 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | January 25, 2010; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Late-week snow potential emerging

Comments

Is it me, or did the 2"-3" heavy rains just never materialize overnight? Windy as heck out there right now, but seems to me the rain part of this event just didn't pan out. And for a change, that's FINE with me -- better that RAIN is oversold than a precious SNOW event!

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | January 25, 2010 6:12 AM | Report abuse

Not even 1" of rain??? Looks pretty much over to me as the precip did a typical split over our area with the bulk of it going to PA and down south.

Posted by: rocotten | January 25, 2010 6:17 AM | Report abuse

Both airports reporting less than a quarter inch of rain! The real story this morning is the screaming south wind (40 mph, as high as we ever get outside of hurricanes) bringing in the tropical warmth and humidity.

Posted by: HenryFPotter | January 25, 2010 6:52 AM | Report abuse

Dry slot? What dry slot? LOL
I am actually glad to see it. All for a good soaker, but not for the ground getting even more saturated while the winds are howling. Power already went out twice this am, for short periods of time. Both hands on the wheel!!!!

Posted by: dprats21 | January 25, 2010 7:22 AM | Report abuse

No doubt the rain has underperformed in the metro region (note we called for 1-2", not 2-3"), but there has been more to the south and east (which is what we indicated). Also, it is not over yet...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2010 7:26 AM | Report abuse

Wow. You call this a "horrible morning"? I'm loving it! It's so warm, the wind feels like the seaside. I give it a daily digit of 8 or 9.

Posted by: ChickenLady | January 25, 2010 7:40 AM | Report abuse

My thoughts this morning were just like VaStateofMind...I'm so glad this is a rain event that underperformed rather than a snow disappointment.

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 25, 2010 7:56 AM | Report abuse

Is there a meteorological term for storms that seem to over perform in Pennsylvania and Southern VA/NC and under perform in our area? I notice significant dry spots over the Blue Ridge/Shenandoah directly to our west as well (not from this storm, but long-term precipitation measurements).

Although we get our fair share of precipitation, these storms that move due west to east always seem to drop less over us and blow up over central PA. This seems to be a pretty regular occurrence that must have some geological reason. Strange thing is, the mountains to our west aren't exactly the highest in the Appalachians. I DON'T GET IT!

Posted by: rocotten | January 25, 2010 8:11 AM | Report abuse

woo hoo! SNOW chances later this week!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | January 25, 2010 8:14 AM | Report abuse

Walter -

Right now it seems that the storm for late week looks to dump a healthy dose to our south --- Fredricksburg, Richmond and Norfolk. We are several days away but the bullseye this morning seems to graze us. I am hoping that the thing turns up the coast and slams us.

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 25, 2010 8:36 AM | Report abuse

Not sure if I am reading it properly but the 06Z seems to be showing 6-8 inches of snow for the DC area later this week.

Posted by: snowlover | January 25, 2010 8:38 AM | Report abuse

06Z GFS that is....

Posted by: snowlover | January 25, 2010 8:46 AM | Report abuse

Wind knocked out the power for about 4 hours this morning in my neighborhood. Very spring-like outside.

Posted by: bgaffney491 | January 25, 2010 9:12 AM | Report abuse

I wish people would say where exactly they are when they say they lost power.

Posted by: jojo2008 | January 25, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Oh man, how I envy the folks who live in locations where the storm underperformed! I live in the countryside near Harpers Ferry and this miserable storm was exactly as advertised. We went Deep Purple on precip, 3+" at rate of 1+"/hr. Still raining but I've quit checking the gauge. This was preceded by 5-6 hours of howling 40+mph winds in the dead of night. Nobody slept one minute. When we could see, we found that downspout extenders had been blown out of alignment and water was gushing into the house foundation. What a horrific storm. Oh, and the warmth and humidity in the house have brought stowaway stinkbugs out of hiding. I just found 3 in the livingroom.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | January 25, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Well everything unfolded just as CWG predicted out here in eastern Fauquier. It's almost 60 degrees, have 2.25 inches in the rain gauge and we've gotten some pretty strong gusts from about 3 a.m. on. Just a little preview of spring!

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 25, 2010 9:25 AM | Report abuse

jojo2008,

I live in northern Silver Spring, near Glenmont

Posted by: bgaffney491 | January 25, 2010 9:25 AM | Report abuse

Looks like a good chunk of the rain stayed off to the N and W. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
(click on storm total)

Posted by: eric654 | January 25, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Any ideas on snowfall totals later in the week?

Posted by: ianswank | January 25, 2010 9:43 AM | Report abuse

If anyone can't see the previous rainfall total image (and it will get reset within 24 hours), here is a screen capture:

http://i433.photobucket.com/albums/qq51/palmer2/rain25Jan10.jpg

Posted by: eric654 | January 25, 2010 9:45 AM | Report abuse

Ian - 1-3 inches of snow North and West from the GFS model run I looked at this morning.

3-6 further South (Woodbridge-Fredricksburg, Richmond)

4+ - just south of Richmond if it is all snow.

This could change as I think this will become a coastal storm and track-up. That happens...could be a healthy storm.

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 25, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Agreed. The GFS is currently suppressing the moisture on Saturday to the south, but if the low can move up the coast instead of out to sea, we could have a nice snowstorm on our hands.

Posted by: bdeco | January 25, 2010 10:01 AM | Report abuse

1.5 inches, 56 degrees, and the sun just peeked out here in Winchester.

Posted by: refrep | January 25, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

This storm has under-performed, but the most recent precip charts were saying 1.25 inches not three.

As for the later storm, Friday is supposed to be a BIG DANCE NIGHT for me; please see my post on the "Snow Potential" entry. Looks like I have to side with the mild-weather folks on this one.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 25, 2010 11:50 AM | Report abuse

Storm was bad last night in the Blue Ridge Mtns. Lost power during halftime of the Saints' game and listened to the remainder on battery radio. Power restored at 11:45p.

Noontime update: a bit of hail? mixing in with this latest band. Now sunny.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 25, 2010 12:08 PM | Report abuse

"Near 60"?
Yet another bust on the upside:
College Pk 68
Fred'burg 65
Ft Belvoir 65
Dulles 65
National 65
Manassas 64
BWI 64
Andrews 63
Staffod 63
Quantico 63
Leesburg 63

Posted by: CapitalClimate | January 25, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Still above 60 @ 4 pm:
Leesburg
Stafford
National
Manassas
College Pk
Pax River
Quantico
Ft Belvoir
Fred'burg

Posted by: CapitalClimate | January 25, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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