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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 01/16/2010

Forecast: Super Saturday, Soaker Sunday

By Jason Samenow

* Arctic air sunrise at the Tidal Basin | CWG turns 2! Comments? *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
7It's nice to finally have a weekend day sans frigid winds.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny and mild. 50-55. | Tonight: Chance of rain late. 35-40. | Tomorrow: Cloudy with rain likely. 40-45. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The first two weekends of 2010 brought icy temperatures and fierce winds so I'm happy to be able to talk about 50 degrees today. Regrettably, this agreeable weather will be dislodged by a southern storm which promises to bring cold rain to the region tomorrow. But that will move off by Monday, and we could pop back to 50 again for the MLK holiday. All said, I bet most of us will take 2 out of 3 dry, relatively mild days for this holiday weekend.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): Some morning low clouds and fog should eventually be replaced by partial sunshine by late morning before some high clouds trickle in during the late afternoon. High temperatures will range from 50-55, with not much in the way of wind under weak high pressure. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds lower and thicken with a 40% chance of rain after midnight and a 60% chance of rain after 3 a.m. Lows will range from the mid-30s in the cooler suburbs to near 40 downtown. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through early next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): Rain is a sure a bet, and there will likely be a fair amount of it. By afternoon, the rain may begin to decrease in coverage and intensity, especially to the south and west. Highs should range from 40 to 45 with a light wind from the east. Rainfall totals by Sunday evening should be around 1 inch. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: There's a 60% chance of rain through 10 p.m. and just a 30% chance between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. After 2 a.m. or so, the rain should be over. Lows will range from the mid-30s in the cooler suburbs to the upper 30s downtown. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Dry weather returns for both Monday and Tuesday with slightly warmer than average temperatures. On Monday, highs should climb to around 50 under partly to mostly sunny skies. A back door cold front may slip through the region early Tuesday making it slightly cooler, with highs in the mid-40s or so under partly sunny skies (clouds may increase some in the afternoon). Lows Monday night look to be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | January 16, 2010; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Dreary & depressing with downpours

Comments

Anyone else notice it smells a lot like spring out there this morning?

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 16, 2010 8:55 AM | Report abuse

@ Brian -

Yep. Love it!

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 16, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Brian,

I heard more bird chirping yesterday.

Jay

Posted by: jaybird926 | January 16, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

Despite it being 51F at the DC Convention Center, snow piles here & there are resilient--refusing to melt!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 16, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

At his point "snow" should be in quotes. They're more like dirt/salt/smog piles held together by ice.

Posted by: ah___ | January 16, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Thursday's system looks more like rain than snow from this perspective.


Let's get the cold air back...meteorological winter is only HALF over!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 16, 2010 3:05 PM | Report abuse

Matter of perspective Bombo. From here, we're halfway to meteorological spring! :)

Climatologically speaking, conditions are still "favorable" for snow for the next 4-5 weeks. (Though the long range forecasts indicate the first 2 of those may be mild.) After President's Day, the higher sun angle starts to have some effect and in order to get a snowstorm, a lot of factors have to come together. Yes, it happens, just that the conditions aren't as favorable then as they are now. 3-4 weeks after that, it's all over.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 16, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

@Bombo - I totally agree.
CWG - what are the chances that cold weather will return in February? I'd really like a few more bouts of snow.

Posted by: Bainbridge | January 16, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

I'm afraid the mild temps r here 4 at least the next 3 weeks, & possibly thru most of Feb. This is looking like a long term pattern change.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 16, 2010 5:15 PM | Report abuse

I have now received three chain e-mails purporting to copy a NOAA notice of severe weather the next few weeks in California related to El Nino. I wonder if this is a hoax?

The following is an excerpt of text they all contain:

"NOAA Update:

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state."

The messages on the same link contain more of the same text I am seeing, but I don't see it on NOAA's site:

http://forums.boof.com/showthread.php?p=25417

Posted by: BaracksTeleprompter | January 16, 2010 6:19 PM | Report abuse

VaTechBob is the first person that I've heard say we are having a pattern change that would mean mild temps for the rest of the winter. CWG was saying they expected it to get colder again in a couple weeks. Has everything changed now? Please advise.

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 16, 2010 6:58 PM | Report abuse

The pattern has changed, the duration of this change is unknown, but from past experience it generally lasts at least a month this time of yr. Not saying we won't c some cold & snow, but it isn't going 2 occur in the next 2-3 weeks. I do expect Feb temps 2 b above average.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 16, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

The long range models and the NAO all indicate a pattern change around the 1st of Feb. Next month is looking cold and very stormy.

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 16, 2010 10:09 PM | Report abuse

Never give up. Ever.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 16, 2010 10:50 PM | Report abuse

Still mid downtown in DC (40s) with the rain still several hours away.. enjoy your night out everyone!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 16, 2010 11:05 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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