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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 01/11/2010

Forecast: Work week warm-up

By Jason Samenow

Chance of weekend storm

* Outside now? Temps, clouds, webcam & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5Still cold, but little wind and anticipating the warm-up...
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny, increasing clouds late. 34-38. | Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of flurries or snow showers. 21-26. | Tomorrow: Becoming mostly sunny. 35-39. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Sick of bundling up with scarves, hats and earmuffs? By midweek, you should have a chance to give them a break. Daytime temperatures will steadily rise throughout the work week. We should break 40 Wednesday, and perhaps 45 Thursday and Friday. A significant storm, however, could impact the region next weekend -- so there's a chance the winter weather gear will need to come back out.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): The week begins on a very cold note with teens throughout the region when you get up and head out. But sunshine will go to work, so we should make it into the mid-30s or so by afternoon. By late afternoon, some high clouds will start moving in ahead of a weak cold front. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds increase, with a chance (40%) of snow showers. A dusting or so is possible where snow falls. Overnight lows will range from the low-to-mid 20s (suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the week...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Cloud cover from overnight will gradually break-up, with a good deal of sunshine for most of the day. Temperatures will climb closer to 40, but will probably fall just short, with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Clear and very cold, with lows ranging from the mid-teens (colder suburbs) to low-to-mid 20s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

On Wednesday we should finally crack 40, under mostly sunny skies. Still chilly Wednesday night, with lows around 20 in the colder suburbs and mid-to-upper 20s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

The "warmest" air in a while arrives Thursday and Friday as high temperatures rise into the mid-to-upper 40s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Someone could even hit 50. Overnight temperatures will be warmer as well, but still chilly, with lows from the mid-20s (colder suburbs) to low 30s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High

Computer models (for quite a few days) have been advertising the possibility of a weekend storm. Though milder air will have reached the region late in the work week, there are indications that cold air may bleed back in as this potential storm approaches. The strength of the cold air along with the track of the storm will help determine whether this storm brings ice, rain, snow, some combination or doesn't materialize (goes out to sea). To me, the pattern appears favorable for ice, but we'll keep you posted as details evolve. Highs both days will probably be in the 30s with a 60% chance of precipitation. Lows will be near 30. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | January 11, 2010; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Re: Weekend Storm

Howard Bernstein said this morning that after looking at recent model runs, he's taking it out of the 7-day forecast. Looks more and more likely that it will stay suppressed to the south according to him.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | January 11, 2010 7:32 AM | Report abuse

Not much has missed us to the south so I'd probably lean toward us getting some precipitation. I'm not sure I buy the ice threat at this point, perhaps some to start. It looks to me like it's either south of us or mostly rain -- perhaps a bit more tricky north and west.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2010 10:01 AM | Report abuse

What's the progonosis for the rest of the month being abnormally cold? There was some comments earlier that it would be as cold as it was in January 1976(?). Snowflakes in miami etc.

Posted by: jojo2008 | January 11, 2010 11:10 AM | Report abuse

Forecasts on this weekend storm are all over the place, so to speak. They range from: 30% chance of snow [NOAA Weather Radio] to mixed precipitation [Weather Channel] to nothing at all--storm suppressed to the south [Channels 4 & 9, cf. ThinkSpring's post above]. Here's my check of guidance:

Preliminary extended discussion; Much debate over whether the system will "phase" and bring in cold air or remain to the south.

MOS: MAV and MET haven't gotten to the weekend yet. I checked MEX [extended experimental GFS], which shows Reagan as having freezing rain/drizzle at night and rain during the day all weekend including Monday; Dulles has freezing rain/sleet throughout the period.

Selected models: Checked Canadian and ECMWF. Canadian [GEM] hasn't yet gotten through the weekend. The Euro continues to suppress this system to the south and send it out to sea.

Florida State's cyclone phase evolution sheet hasn't yet gotten this system on all databases. The highest pressure in the world currently sits over Siberia. The normally coldest spots there still don't have extremely high pressure. Verkhoyansk, 30.12 with snow; Oymyakon, 30.48. Since it can get well over 31.00 in Siberia over the winter, this isn't too remarkable, but there seems to be very high pressure west of Yakutia.

In sum, the jury's out, but I'd currently lean in ThinkSpring's direction. Howard Bernstein is still thinking the storm stays south of us.


Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 11, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

@jojo2008

The pattern looks to flip for the rest of January with average to above average temps...with snow risk less than average

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 11, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

I have a (rescheduled from last weekend) race in Fairmont, WV - what are the chances that (a) the race will be cancelled again; or (b) we will be iced/snowed-in in the middle of nowhere?

Posted by: doublee1 | January 11, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

jojo2008, I think u mean Jan 77, that mon. ended up -9.5, so far, this Jan is -5.6. With above average temps expected 4 the rest of this mon., this Jan won't b close 2 Jan 77. I expect the + temps 2 last thru most of Feb.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 11, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

I was in 5th grade back in January 1977 and remember going to school for a total of 3 days that month down in Blacksburg, VA. Amazing cold more than the snow. Temps would go down below 10 and just stay there. Then it would warm a little, snow, and get cold again. They were cancelling school on Tues. afternoon for the rest of the week.

Posted by: MDDem2 | January 11, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

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