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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 01/26/2010

PM Update: A flurry or two, then clearing

By Ian Livingston

Cool and tranquil through at least midday Friday

* El Niño-linked weather arrives with a vengeance | Late-week snow? *
* Outside now? Temps, radar, winds & more: Weather Wall *

24 hours ago we were still sitting in the 60s as cooler air slowly began to filter back into the area. Today we're about 20 degrees colder and reminded that winter still has several weeks left to go. Plenty of clouds have helped hold temperatures back while a stiff breeze has kept wind chills in the 30s through much of the day. Some spots have even seen a few snowflakes during the day.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Clouds and any remaining flurries wane as we head through the evening and night, leaving us mostly clear by morning. What about lows? Mid-20s in the coldest spots to lower 30s in the warmest. Breezes around 10 mph add an extra chill.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): It's looking mostly sunny and cool to start the day. Some increase in cloudiness is possible in the afternoon, but that would only take us to partly cloudy. Highs reach the low-to-mid 40s as light west winds continue.

See Matt Rogers' full forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Snow tweets: This morning we asked for questions over on Twitter about the potential end-of-week snow event, and we got many good ones. A small sample, with our answers in italics, follows...

@em_ali: Possibility of morning classes being canceled on Friday?
CWG: Friday morning looks fine. It would probably be later in the day that we would see the storm's first effects. As of now, we think Friday morning and lunchtime will be ok.

@karlyc: Q re: significant wknd snow. when will forecast confidence levels harden; -24,-36 hrs or other? Thx!
CWG: You've heard the phrase "you'll know it when you see it?" But really, by Thursday evening we should have a good feel for what is going to happen, with the last 24 hours or so before the storm left for tweaking accumulation totals (or lack there of) and locations.

@kleighmc: how do we make it go away?
CWG: Move to Florida. Or take a nap 'til April.

@WeatherWarrior1: ? Since your are Capital Weather 'Gang', do you think there is a file on you at the DC Police Gang Task Force Office?
CWG: Why do you think we post out of an undisclosed location?

By Ian Livingston  | January 26, 2010; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: El Niño-linked weather arrives with a vengeance
Next: Forecast: Calm into tomorrow, then action begins

Comments

Well, we're getting snow showers in Lower Arlington (Columbia Pike & Glebe) right now.

Posted by: wrytous | January 26, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Snowshower in Rockville. More like snow pellets.

Posted by: DOG3521 | January 26, 2010 3:32 PM | Report abuse

I was over in Vienna a while ago and there were flurries and just now there was a pretty good snow shower here in Springfield.

Posted by: FusilliJerry1 | January 26, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

A spritz of snowflakes just south of Fairfax City. Windy, too.

Posted by: dadofmeg | January 26, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Nice little snowshower in Columbia a little bit ago. What a difference a day makes!

Posted by: curtmccormick | January 26, 2010 4:59 PM | Report abuse

I have a flight at 10 am on Friday from DCA to JFK to then connect on to an international flight. Should I be worried?

Posted by: gregorywatson1 | January 26, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

@Gregorywatson1 -

You should be fine. 10am should be well before any meaningful snowfall enters the area. Further, it is looking more and more like a suppressed solution is the likely outcome for this storm.

That doesn't mean we are out of the running, but it likely at least means a lesser storm, and it DOES almost certainly put NYC out of the running, so you should have no trouble with your connection, either.

Posted by: jahutch | January 26, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

@gregorywatson

Jahutch is spot on :)

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

That just ruined my night..."lesser storm"? Does this mean, like, fewer inches or like, no inches?

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 26, 2010 6:18 PM | Report abuse

@manassasmissy,

Yes.
The trend in almost all the models has been to take the storm track further and further south of the DC area. As of right now (emphasize RIGHT NOW), the bulls eye looks to be somewhere in North Carolina.
The result of this is to give DC proper very little, if any, snow. While this could change, it would take a huge jump in the models.
Even though this storm setup is different than the one in December, it is interesting to know that the December storm at this distance was also looking like a southern/off the coast storm. Just something to hold onto if you are a snow lover.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | January 26, 2010 6:37 PM | Report abuse

As disappointing at that sounds, I guess I'm happier to get my expectations back into typical winter in DC mode. It seems like the December storm had better model agreement early on than this storm though. Okay so what about NEXT week?

Posted by: manassasmissy | January 26, 2010 6:42 PM | Report abuse

I think the next few model runs will tell us a lot. I could be totally wrong but part of me thinks it is pretty unlikely that we get blanked by this. I do think the bullseye may be well south though - maybe the RIC-ORF corridor along I-64 (an area that certainly is due, if there ever was one).

I still have hope that we on the northern side eke out a 2-4 or 3-6 type event. It would require the storm moving north some though.

Posted by: jahutch | January 26, 2010 7:04 PM | Report abuse

RE: Posting from an undisclosed location. ROFL!!

Hey CWG, what news of Anne?

Posted by: --sg | January 26, 2010 7:22 PM | Report abuse

CWG very quiet...probably regretting the early SLCB and upsetting the snow fans. Frank Straight of Accuweather has a good update on the storm posted recently discussing the latest model runs. For us...not looking good right now.
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=strait

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 26, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

I've lived in this area since 1954, & I've learned not 2 get excited about snow until it gets within 12-24 hrs. I just don't have any real faith in models until they are 24 hrs or less. Although I hope I'm wrong, have a feeling this 1 will b a miss 2 the South, with little or no accum. 4 most of this area. Temps right now 4 next week looking border line 4 any snow.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 26, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

yikes, I see the tweets above refer to an undisclosed location for our blogging. I better stop referring to my neighborhood when I report-in on conditions outside ;) lol

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

I have a meeting in Philly on Friday that I'd like to get your opinions on. I'm leaving (driving) around 7 and come back at 6 or so. I can tell participants tomorrow that I won't be coming. I hate to wait til Thur. pm to tell them considering the track models. It'll make the company look bad. It sounds like leaving won't be a problem but will I be stuck in some motel up north or worse?

Posted by: jojo2008 | January 26, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Are the next model runs expected 11ish? Not that I'll be obsessively checking or anything ;)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 26, 2010 9:24 PM | Report abuse

Weather Observations

Location: mountains east of Front Royal

Hi Temp: 31.8F

Low/Current Temp: 27.0F

Snowfall Accumulation: 1/8"

Posted by: spgass1 | January 26, 2010 9:31 PM | Report abuse

Snow outlook getting bleaker, unless u live South of Richmond. Looks like another warm up mid next week.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 26, 2010 9:38 PM | Report abuse

snowlover2, the first of the evening models is running now... NAM only runs to 84 hours though so not quite as far as we need for this event. The GFS and others run over the next few hours. FWIW, I tend to agree we won't get blanked by this event -- a miss to the south that is -- but we'll see. The last storm was one of the first that tended to be suppressed, perhaps this will too. One thing in our favor is likely fairly high snow to liquid ratios, so we may not need a ton of precip to get good totals. I'm personally a good bit more bullish than the models right now, would expect them to come north from today's runs.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

It's only Tuesday, and we're talking about a storm that is on the way for the weekend.

If memory serves, the models were all over the place before finally coming around to predict the big snow we had before Christmas.

Plenty of time to get milk and bread.

Also, keep in mind that our last couple of rain events were severe underperformers.

Posted by: Curmudgeon4 | January 26, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

00z NAM still suppressed. Snow in sw Va. at 1 am Sat., but not DC.

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 26, 2010 9:49 PM | Report abuse

Regardless of the end result, I really enjoy following along and seeing what develops, and reading all the reasoning why! I learn so much from this site. That said- LET IT SNOW!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 26, 2010 9:50 PM | Report abuse

Based on the latest NAM, I would give DC 1-4 inches during the day on Sat.

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 26, 2010 9:53 PM | Report abuse

AugustaJim, the NAM is slower in the evolution though and seems to leave room for a north trend with the low to our northeast in Canada moving away before the potential snowmaker arrives. After a morning and midday of bad trends the afternoon and evening have provided some renewed hope. Somewhat unscientifically, I'd say these things usually come north as you get nearer game time.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2010 10:00 PM | Report abuse

IAN:
I agree and frankly, I like the look of the 00z run!!

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 26, 2010 10:04 PM | Report abuse

Much too early to give up on the potential storm at this juncture. I believe we will see a northward trend of the models, probably beginning tomorrow night into Thursday. That's been the trend this winter, especially with the GFS. I would be more worried if DC were in the bulls eye this far in advance of the storm. The southern trend is like Ali doing a "Rope-A-Dope" on his opponent. So let's all of us snowlovers just pause for a moment and a deep breath, and get ready to hit the grocery stores on Thursday to beat the Friday rush!!

Posted by: johnnierat | January 26, 2010 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Big issue with me is still that Bobby's Promotion dance from 8 PM--midnight Friday the 29th. Hence, a snowstorm not starting until aoa 2 or 3 AM Saturday morning is fine with me. Any ACCUMULATING snow Friday afternoon or evening before midnight is unwelcome UNLESS Bobby cancels the dance event.

Best outcome: A storm missing us to the southeast or snow not beginning here until near dawn Saturday. Actually if it hits the Carolinas or Norfolk rather than us, will it really be that much of a snow producer??? With rare exceptions storms which do that tend more to be huge ice or wintry/mix events in North Carolina, but have little or no snow, and that on the far northern fringe. Perhaps this storm will "bust" except for sleet and ice south of Richmond.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 26, 2010 11:39 PM | Report abuse

@stinkerflat1

CWG not quiet ... CWG studying models ... CWG does not regret putting up an SLCB on Monday with conservative accumulation probabilities when models showed consistency in potential for a significant late-week snowstorm ... CWG to have more first thing in the morning.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 26, 2010 11:45 PM | Report abuse

Thank you! I have taken a look at the GFS tonight and all is not lost. What is really interesting is the parade of storms over the next few weeks showing up on the models. Be prepared for a very stormy period if all verifies!!!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 27, 2010 1:01 AM | Report abuse

Been waiting and finally got to look at the 03Z SREF model run (@ PSU WxWall). Like the look of the more northern trend from the last two runs - each moving about 60 miles north each time. I like the thought of a sig. snowfall... more so than 12 hours ago.

Posted by: wxsquid | January 27, 2010 3:17 AM | Report abuse

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