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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 01/27/2010

PM Update: Mild before tomorrow's cold front

By Ian Livingston

Cold arrives late Thurs.; snow questions remain

* Ann and Antarctica: How's the air down there? | Late-week snow? *
* Outside now? Temps, radar, winds & more: Weather Wall *

Variable clouds and temperatures ranging from the low-to-mid 40s have set us up for a pretty normal late-January day around here. Continued quiet, and somewhat mild, weather goes on through the night and into part of tomorrow before cold air arrives for Friday. Then eyes begin to turn toward snow chances late Friday and into the weekend.

Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. Refresh page to update. See this image bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: We're looking at partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies with low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds will be light from the southwest.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Thursday gets off to a mild start but that comes to an end by mid-to-late afternoon as an Arctic cold front pushes through. Highs may spike to around 50 or even a bit above midday before tumbling into the 30s near and after sunset. There could be a stray shower or snowflake along the front, but I would not bet on it. Winds behind the front may gust to around 25 or 30 mph for a time late tomorrow.

See Dan Stillman's full forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Wind record: According to a recent review and evaluation conducted by a panel of experts in charge of global weather and climate extremes within the WMO Commission for Climatology (CCl), the new record wind gust, not related to tornados, registered to date is 408 kilometres per hour (254 mph). This record occurred during Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia. The previous record was of 372 kilometres per hour (231 mph), registered in April 1934 across the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire (USA).

By Ian Livingston  | January 27, 2010; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Ann and Antarctica: How's the air down there?
Next: Update: Snow chances sliding south

Comments

New HPC map showing a southern track.

Kim Martucci called for us to get "SLAMMED" though...

Posted by: spgass1 | January 27, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

"the new record wind gust, not related to tornados, registered to date is 408 kilometres per hour (300 mph)."

408 kph would only be equal to about 253 mph. 300 mph makes Mt. Washington look measly!

Posted by: RexKramer | January 27, 2010 3:38 PM | Report abuse

Rex, you are right. It's been fixed.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 27, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Regarding the track for the potential snowstorm late Friday-Saturday... A shift back to the north that occurred in the models last night has reverted back to the south on model runs today -- a good example of why you don't want to change a forecast too dramatically based on just one or two model runs. Maybe things will again shift northward tonight. If they don't come back north at least a bit, either tonight or by tomorrow morning's runs, then we may be looking at minor accumulations (at most) in the D.C. area with mores significant snows well south.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 27, 2010 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Dan: Perhaps not surprisingly, Joe Bastardi has a very different take on this storm than most of the current models, he sees it tracking north and putting the D.C. area into the heavy snow with something in the neighborhood of a foot:

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=63237239001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=The%20Hounds%20of%20Winter%20Are%20Set%20to%20Howl!

Posted by: jdtdc | January 27, 2010 5:26 PM | Report abuse

You'll excuse me if I don't trust notthataccu(rate)weather.com

This storm will miss us. It will be cold, but it will be dry. I'm making a tee time for Saturday.

Posted by: oldtimehockey | January 27, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

"Joe Bastardi has a very different take on this storm than most of the current models"

jdtdc, the date of that video link you posted is Monday, which is when CWG was forecasting probabilities favorable for a higher accumulation too. Heck, the CWG's Monday outlook "has a very different take on this storm than most of the current models" too.

Posted by: prokaryote | January 27, 2010 5:42 PM | Report abuse

Today's video from accuweather:

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=21670159001&title=How%20Much%20Snow%20in%20Virgina,%20North%20Carolina%20and%20Maryland

Bernie Rayno says most of storm to south of DC: "at this point I wouldn't think more than an inch or two".

I do realize that it may seem fun here to bash accuweather, but jdtdc's "comparison" was just unfair and wrong to post.

Posted by: prokaryote | January 27, 2010 5:57 PM | Report abuse

I wonder if Saturday will be one of those becoming sunny days with a chance of light snow. Sometimes when a big storm rides by to the south but we are under cold dry air, we will get mid to high clouds from the storm, virga, light snow, and dim sunshine sneaking through.

Posted by: eric654 | January 27, 2010 6:00 PM | Report abuse

As I said last night, this will a Southern storm, & Richmond S will get the brunt. DC - Fredericksburg 1-2" with higher amounts S. Maybe this will teach people not 2 get all excited about storms more than 48 hrs out, wishcasting never works. Look 4 moderating temps late next week. Dulles is now +3 & Reagan + 1.6 4 the mon., with Feb looking + temps.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 27, 2010 6:36 PM | Report abuse

Reposting from an earlier thread:

Anyone want to hazard a guess on timing of the snow and conditions in Blacksburg Friday into Saturday? I'm going down there for an interview Friday morning and trying to time my drive back up I-81. Thanks.

Posted by: eventual_eventer | January 27, 2010 6:48 PM | Report abuse

I'll bite. If it's a southern storm like the models are trending, it will be worse down there in Blacksburg. They keep delaying the onset, though, the NWS forecast for Winchester says starting after midnight. So I imagine the ride down won't be a problem, but the later your departure the more risk there will be Friday afternoon and evening. Still hoping there won't be much here so we can make it to Hershey. Topper seemed to think the bull's eye is Danville, by the way...

Posted by: ValleyCaps | January 27, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

For the folks in DC and immediate suburbs... This is looking to be a minor (if any) event. Flurries or light snow with little accumulation on Saturday is about the extent of the prognosis. For our area, cold temps will be the story, not snow. Highs in the 20's with a bit of a breeze will make it feel like it is winter. Oh yeah... it is winter! Just without the snow. The trend of the models and subsequent forecast is for a major winter storm to impact areas south of Richmond into North Carolina. Some areas could see accumulations measured in feet, especially in the central North Carolina mountains. Sigh... maybe next time.

The near future for us looks to be active with what appears to be many storm systems moving through the area. Rain or snow? Stay tuned...

Posted by: pjdunn1 | January 27, 2010 7:34 PM | Report abuse

What are your thoughts about what looks to be a pretty healthy disturbance filling in to our west tonight? Any chance we wake up to some surprise snow in the morning during rush hour. This would not be the first time we were surprised. http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/enhanced-radar.asp

Posted by: barryg2 | January 27, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

BarryG2, the national radar looks interesting, although I don't have accuweather pro access. I guess the expectation is that it will wring itself out/turn north along the Allegheny Front. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a coating though...

The Saturday storm looks to me like a complete miss for northern VA in the new NAM... will be interesting to see the GFS...

Posted by: spgass1 | January 27, 2010 10:19 PM | Report abuse

Hey everyone, update on the snow just posted.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 27, 2010 11:05 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: spgass1 | January 27, 2010 11:06 PM | Report abuse

@valleycaps
Thank you!

Posted by: eventual_eventer | January 28, 2010 12:17 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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