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Posted at 10:45 PM ET, 01/20/2010

Update: Chance of accumulating snow dropping

By Jason Samenow

Earlier today, we suggested a 65% chance of at least an inch of snow from the storm to impact the region Thursday night and Friday. The latest data we're analyzing suggests odds of accumulating snow are less likely, probably at 50% or less inside the beltway. In the north and west suburbs outside the beltway, there is a better chance of some snow accumulation (in the 50-60% range), but even there it's no sure bet.

There are two problems: 1) The amount of cold air is marginal and 2) the latest model simulations are suppressing development of the storm far enough south that it doesn't look like we'll see as much precipitation as shown by earlier model runs. We'll have a more detailed forecast in the morning.

By Jason Samenow  | January 20, 2010; 10:45 PM ET
Categories:  Updates  
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Next: Forecast: Unsettled & wintry through Friday


DARN....means I might actually have to go into work friday :(

Posted by: panthersny | January 20, 2010 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the update. I just watched Sue Palka and I think her map showed maybe an inch for DC and 1-3 for the Western suburbs. The most snow on her map (4+) looked to have shifted a bit farther south and west than what this afternoon's HPC maps showed.

Current temp: 29.5F in the Blue Ridge Mtns

Posted by: spgass1 | January 20, 2010 11:00 PM | Report abuse

Not too many complaints. We did have the mega mother in December. Now back to the DC status quo!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 20, 2010 11:19 PM | Report abuse

Phew! Too much to do Friday to deal with shoveling and keeping kids at home.

Posted by: BDVienna | January 20, 2010 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Overhyped again?
What a surprise . . . NOT!

Posted by: CapitalClimate | January 21, 2010 1:41 AM | Report abuse

Insightful commentary, CapitalClimate. Glad to see you are back obsessing over your former website . . .

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | January 21, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

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