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Posted at 11:05 PM ET, 01/28/2010

Update: On the edge of no snow, or a little snow

By Dan Stillman

Frigid air is blowing into the area tonight on gusty winds from the northwest following the passage of a strong cold front this afternoon. This will ensure that any precpitation we see Friday night and Saturday from a storm approaching from the south will fall in the form of snow. The question remains, though: How much precipitation will make it this far north?

Today's morning model runs moved a little north with the storm's precipitation shield, before edging back south with it this evening. The net result is that the models pretty much have the D.C. metro area sitting around the same place it was this time last night -- some areas, especially southern sections, could see a couple of inches, while other areas, especially northern sections, could get just flurries or no snow at all.

Southern Maryland?... and once you get down to around Fredericksburg, Va., or a little bit south? You're looking at a more confident chance of 1-4".

Check back tomorrow morning for an accumulation map, and see our full forecast into early next week.

By Dan Stillman  | January 28, 2010; 11:05 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts, Updates  
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Next: Forecast: Snow on the way, but may not be much


This may be a stupid question, but how is it that both southern Maryland and southern Virginia have a higher chance of accumulating snow than the DC metro area? If the storm is tracking south, then wouldn't southern MD also miss out?

(Admittedly, I am a life-long Virginian who is bitter about the higher snow totals across the perhaps that is keeping me from fully understanding).

Posted by: dinergirl1 | January 28, 2010 11:22 PM | Report abuse

Dan, thanks for keeping it real.

Dinergirl1, when they say So Md, they're talking about Charles Co./St. Mary's Co... across the Harry Nice Bridge from Fredricksburg (so it is south of dc).

I haven't read anything yet from Crozet or AugustaJim on this storm, which they should get more out of. Hopefully they weren't flooded out from last Sunday night...

Posted by: spgass1 | January 28, 2010 11:31 PM | Report abuse

Event Predictions:

1. El Bombo will be pleased that his Friday night dance is not impacted due to the timing of the storm.
2. The 1/29 12z precip models will shift a couple millimeters to the north prompting snowlovers like myself to get overly excited.
3. VATechBob will (correctly) remind the snowlovers that this is a southern storm.
4. SPGass1 will stay up way too late tomorrow night just to report that it started snowing and 3/32nds of an inch is on the ground.
5. Stinkerflat will create a video showcasing the excitement of a couple of inches of snow in Leesburg.

Posted by: spgass1 | January 28, 2010 11:53 PM | Report abuse


spagass1 is correct. Southern Maryland is considered the portion of Maryland south/southeast of D.C. (west of the Chesapeake Bay).

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 28, 2010 11:55 PM | Report abuse

Ah, of course. Blinded by DC-centrism.

Posted by: dinergirl1 | January 29, 2010 12:13 AM | Report abuse

We were planning on driving down on Friday morning for a family member's cannot-be-missed birthday party in Raleigh (which takes place on Friday night). We were hoping to beat the majority of the snow by leaving the party early (8:00-9:00 PM) on Friday night. Given the winter storm warning and the forecast in general for the NC Triangle and Southern/Mid-Virginia, do you think this is a good idea? Or will we get stuck? We plan to drive only on the major highways (I-95, I-85). Our hope was that at least these major thoroughfares would be cleared, but then again, it's a winter storm warning. Or maybe we should wait to leave on our return trip to DC on Saturday afternoon? Thoughts, anyone?

Posted by: EFroh | January 29, 2010 12:36 AM | Report abuse


My best guess is that you'll be cutting it too close with that timing. May not be snowing or barely snowing when you leave, but you could easily get overtaken by heavy snow as you drive later into the evening. To be safe, you'd probably have to leave a few hours earlier than that (which I realize may not work with the party timing). Saturday afternoon coming back may also prove troublesome considering the heavy snow that will have fallen and the snow still lingering along your route. You might have to wait for Sunday. Sorry! ... wish I had more optimistic news.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 29, 2010 1:57 AM | Report abuse

Ok,thanks for the informed opinion, Dan! At least I have a good excuse for not going.

Posted by: EFroh | January 29, 2010 6:52 AM | Report abuse

Ahhh!! So much for the models' rope-a-dope tactic. I'm throwin' in the towel on this non-event. Light snow on tap for part of the day tomorrow, ma-a-a-a-y-be an inch can be squeeeeeeeeezzzed out. CWG scores another bullseye! Great job tracking this and not letting the potential hype overtake the reality.

Posted by: johnnierat | January 29, 2010 9:27 AM | Report abuse

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