Update: Snow chances sliding south

Any chance the models are wrong about this one like they were in the nor'easter 10 years ago which CWG blogged about earlier this week?

just hoping we get some snow here...

and in fact, even tonight, the stuff over the mountainsn to our west looks like it may at least cause a flurry over here, no?

Also, if the models are right, when's the last time the non-mountainous areas around the VA-NC border got a foot+ of snow? seems like a stretch...

As I stated Mon. night, this will b a Southern storm. Accumulation predictions: DC area 2" or less 85%, 2-4" 10%, 4+ 5%. Still sticking with Feb temps above, with outside chance of a decent snow. Winter will end up average or slightly above at Reagan & above at Dulles. Outside of the big surpise in Dec., never felt this would b a snowy or cold winter.

Mts will drain all the moisture from the prec. 2 the west, might b a stray flake or 2. Never say never, but very, very doubtful
that this low moves farther N. Wishcasting is like throwing feathers in the wind, it just dosen't work. 5-10% chance it moves farther N.

In my opinion, and I touch on this in tomorrow's forecast, is that so much cold air barreling into the region via our Arctic front can, and most likely will, act as a very strong barrier for moisture trying to come north. I've seen this setup before; in these type of situations cold air almost always wins out over moisture. Clear indication of how cold this incoming air mass is: 90% of the time with DC storms we have to deal with rain/snow line; this time we have to deal with snow/no-snow line, and, this is a direct result of how powerful this Arctic blast is...

@VaTechBob, in contradiction with my normally pessimistic/bearish/(realistic?) thoughts regarding cold and snow in the DC metro area, I think February will end up colder than normal (at all area airports) with at least one moderate (3-6") snow event.

It wasn't just the strength of the cold but also the slowness of the storm. Once it started to slow on the charts, that made it seem like we'd miss out. Oh well, still a great pattern setting up and really we DID have a whopper already...

Curt, you bring up a good point which I failed to mention -- the speed (or lack thereof), which is certainly a contributing factor, but the overriding factor, I believe, is the depth and strength of the (incoming) upper-level trough, which will more or less punt the system out to sea in a flatish trajectory once it gets off the SE coast.