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Posted at 11:00 PM ET, 01/27/2010

Update: Snow chances sliding south

By Dan Stillman

If you have plans this weekend around the D.C. area and points north, you may not want to change them just yet.

We've been mentioning for a few days now the possibility of a snowstorm for late Friday into Saturday, but that whether it snows, and how much, would depend on the storm's track. One of the scenarios we've discussed is that the storm could track too far south for the metro area to see much snow.

As it turns out, with the exception of a blip here and there, computer models have now been fairly consistent over the past 36 hours or so with keeping the heavier accumulations well to the south, toward central Virginia and the Virginia-North Carolina border. And in fact, some of the model output indicates the chance of no accumulation at all around here.

Of course, there's still time for things to change, but at the moment it looks like accumulations (if any) for D.C. and vicinity would be on the minor side, probably not much more than a few inches, and would most likely occur between Friday evening and Saturday evening.

Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow. And see our full forecast through the weekend.

By Dan Stillman  | January 27, 2010; 11:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts, Updates  
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Next: Best chance for significant snow is south


Any chance the models are wrong about this one like they were in the nor'easter 10 years ago which CWG blogged about earlier this week?

just hoping we get some snow here...

and in fact, even tonight, the stuff over the mountainsn to our west looks like it may at least cause a flurry over here, no?

Posted by: markinva | January 27, 2010 11:45 PM | Report abuse

Also, if the models are right, when's the last time the non-mountainous areas around the VA-NC border got a foot+ of snow? seems like a stretch...

Posted by: markinva | January 27, 2010 11:46 PM | Report abuse

As I stated Mon. night, this will b a Southern storm. Accumulation predictions: DC area 2" or less 85%, 2-4" 10%, 4+ 5%. Still sticking with Feb temps above, with outside chance of a decent snow. Winter will end up average or slightly above at Reagan & above at Dulles. Outside of the big surpise in Dec., never felt this would b a snowy or cold winter.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 27, 2010 11:48 PM | Report abuse

Mts will drain all the moisture from the prec. 2 the west, might b a stray flake or 2. Never say never, but very, very doubtful
that this low moves farther N. Wishcasting is like throwing feathers in the wind, it just dosen't work. 5-10% chance it moves farther N.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 27, 2010 11:54 PM | Report abuse

In my opinion, and I touch on this in tomorrow's forecast, is that so much cold air barreling into the region via our Arctic front can, and most likely will, act as a very strong barrier for moisture trying to come north. I've seen this setup before; in these type of situations cold air almost always wins out over moisture. Clear indication of how cold this incoming air mass is: 90% of the time with DC storms we have to deal with rain/snow line; this time we have to deal with snow/no-snow line, and, this is a direct result of how powerful this Arctic blast is...

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | January 28, 2010 12:14 AM | Report abuse

@VaTechBob, in contradiction with my normally pessimistic/bearish/(realistic?) thoughts regarding cold and snow in the DC metro area, I think February will end up colder than normal (at all area airports) with at least one moderate (3-6") snow event.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | January 28, 2010 12:19 AM | Report abuse

It wasn't just the strength of the cold but also the slowness of the storm. Once it started to slow on the charts, that made it seem like we'd miss out. Oh well, still a great pattern setting up and really we DID have a whopper already...

Posted by: curtmccormick | January 28, 2010 12:31 AM | Report abuse

Curt, you bring up a good point which I failed to mention -- the speed (or lack thereof), which is certainly a contributing factor, but the overriding factor, I believe, is the depth and strength of the (incoming) upper-level trough, which will more or less punt the system out to sea in a flatish trajectory once it gets off the SE coast.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | January 28, 2010 12:36 AM | Report abuse

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