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Posted at 5:00 PM ET, 02/28/2010

Forecast: Calm days before next storm chance

By Brian Jackson

* Latest on late Tues.-Wed. snow potential: Snow Lover's Crystal Ball *
* CWG T-Shirts! | Follow CWG on Facebook | Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5Just like yesterday, perhaps a few more clouds.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: More clouds than sun. 43-47. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. Chance of early sprinkle or flurry. 29-35. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. 45-50. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

We seem to have found a pretty consistent pattern these past weeks. A few calm days, followed by the threat of another snowstorm to get the weather world all abuzz. That pattern will repeat this week. Mostly cloudy skies today will give way to some more sunshine tomorrow as temperatures climb back closer to where we should be this time of year. But then, the next storm will approach. It's not clear at this point whether this storm will head out to sea and just miss us or take a track closer to the coast with the threat of significant precipitation.

Clouds: Latest mid-Atlantic infrared satellite loop, courtesy Unisys. Click here to expand. Refresh page to update. See more maps on our Weather Wall

Today (Sunday): Our sun may play hide-and-seek a bit today as an upper level wave passes through the region. A few scattered snow flurries or sprinkles are possible. Temperatures will remain slightly below average, reaching the mid-to-upper 40s. Winds will be out of the west at 10-15 mph, with a few higher gusts still breezing by. Not a bad day overall. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Aside from a chance of a sprinkle or flurry early on, skies will clear out a bit overnight making for somewhat of a chilly night. Overnight lows will dip to the low-to-mid 30s downtown and into the upper 20s outside of the beltway. A wind from the northwest will blow at 10 mph.Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through Wednesday, including the latest on storm chances Tuesday night....

Tomorrow (Monday): Our weather improves a bit to start the week. Meteorological spring (March 1) starts out with some sun, and temperatures should climb into the upper-40s with a few locales hitting the 50 mark. Winds will continue to be a bit of a nuisance though, blowing from the northwest at 10-20 mph. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: Another fairly tranquil overnight is expected. Clouds will begin to filter in ahead of our next system but we'll remain dry and chilly once again. Nighttime lows will once again be within a few degrees of the 30 mark (above in the city, below north and west of the beltway). Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday sees our next possible storm system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast. During the daylight hours, we'll be far enough removed from the action to only see mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 40s. Overnight though, as the low moves northeastward, depending on its track we could see some snow develop (50% chance), possibly mixing with rain. For additional details, see today's Snow Lover's Crystal Ball. Lows will be in the lower 30s. Confidence: Medium

Wednesday sees the continued chance for some snow (40% chance) or mixed rain and snow. The highest chances will be during the morning hours Skies will remain mostly cloudy with highs in the 30s. Winds will likely spin back up as well. Overnight, flurry chances (20%) remain, as do the clouds. Lows will be in the upper 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Brian Jackson  | February 28, 2010; 5:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Tues. night snow chances remain suspect

Comments

no more snow

Posted by: jaw33 | February 28, 2010 6:38 AM | Report abuse

The REAL start of spring for me is neither March 1, nor March 20. It is March 13, the date of the Sailing Club of Washington's (SCOW) annual Iceberg Regatta! In some recently past years, temperatures have been close to 90 degrees; this year, we may get to contend with actual ice, or at least sleet.

Posted by: --sg | February 28, 2010 7:32 AM | Report abuse

There's a robin sitting on a branch outside my window! Now I can say that spring starts today...even if I'm wishing for more snow this week.

Posted by: --sg | February 28, 2010 9:21 AM | Report abuse

During the last blizzard we had about 50 robins hunting for food along our street, all together.

Posted by: RandC | February 28, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

The robins you are seeing now are most likely ones that came south for the winter. The robins that you see in the summer spend the winter further south.

Robins have a tough time with deep snow cover and/or frozen ground. Their diet is primarily worms. They do not feed at backyard feeders.

Posted by: dcawx | February 28, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Currently snowing on Lovettsville.

Posted by: Duodenum | February 28, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

"Currently snowing on Lovettsville."

Where the heck is Lovettsville? And how do I get there?

Posted by: luvhh | February 28, 2010 10:12 AM | Report abuse

Very light "flurries" in Laytonsville, MD area.

Posted by: dprats21 | February 28, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

What is this meteorological spring malarky? Spring no longer starts at the vernal equinox for some people? Is blue now green?

Anyway, let's hope for a nice final snow storm for the season.

Posted by: cgindc | February 28, 2010 10:29 AM | Report abuse

luvhh, northern Loudoun County VA. It didn't amount to anything. In fact it was sunny during part of the snowfall.

Posted by: Duodenum | February 28, 2010 11:50 AM | Report abuse

i woluld like to see a final 4-8 inch snowfall before the winter ends or at least a 3-6 inch storm.

Posted by: snowlover31 | February 28, 2010 11:52 AM | Report abuse

These are overwintering robins, probably in flocks. They are eating berries and have stripped the holly trees clean. Not sure where they are from...I suspect we have New York or Philadelphia robins, not Canadian ones. I have a large flock of them here in South Arlington.

Our robins are probably wintering in Myrtle Beach.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 28, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

I can't seem to find the Viera weather forecast on this site.

Posted by: Section314 | February 28, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

I have an airport layover on Tuesday morning in Charlotte, NC (leaving from DC very early in the morning) and then flying to St. Thomas late morning. Any guesses about the storm and its effect on Charlotte? Thanks.

Posted by: cabster | February 28, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Gang could you tell us how much snow you think we could get at this point? Also what are the long term forcast models showing the storm doing when it reaches the coast.

Posted by: snowlover31 | February 28, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Models don't look good for a significant event. Looks like this one will go to sea. I think we'll have something similar to last week.

Posted by: PoorTeacher | February 28, 2010 5:44 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover31 - Take a look at the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball. I think it answers both your questions, as well as the CWG folks can answer them right now.

Posted by: MKoehl | February 28, 2010 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: cabster | February 28, 2010 3:49 PM


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Need someone to carry your luggage?

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | February 28, 2010 6:27 PM | Report abuse

Bastardi still is not giving up on this week's storm. He expects the models to correct west and bring heavy precip into the major cities. "There are still some problems that can pull this in, and there are models still in my camp. The JMA is the furthest west among the big boys, a miss in the big cities but very close to
the early March 1969 storm I referenced which hit the COAST hardest. A look at the Millersville WRF has the heavy snow well inland and into the big cities. I use models as "checks" on what I am thinking and if there are a couple of objective models in agreement with me, I know I may still be on to something."

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 28, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse

I don't quite get the NWS's bullish forecast of "snow likely" for Tuesday night. The models are fairly consistent on this storm going out to sea. Do they know something that we don't?

Posted by: bdeco | February 28, 2010 6:45 PM | Report abuse

@bdeco I agree, the GFS and NAM haven't shown us above .1 qpf in several days. I don't see how we get anything but flurries from this.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 28, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

@cabster

Wouldn't expect major problems in Charlotte Tuesday morning...mostly rain there, until possibly late in the day or at night, when it may change to snow.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

re: NWS's "snow likely" forecast...

Irrespective of what the coastal does, the NWS is banking on some precip from the upper level low as it approaches Tuesday night. My thinking is that if the coastal goes too far east and we're just dealing with precip from the upper low, we won't get much accumulation. Precip won't be heavy, temps may be above freezing, and ground is not cold.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2010 7:15 PM | Report abuse

I updated my seasonal snow chart (78.0625"), maybe will make 80" with the next event...

In other news, I heard from BlueRidgeMike who measured more from some of the events. Details...

Posted by: spgass1 | February 28, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Jason, for the reassuring comments on Charlotte.

To "waterfrontproperty," sorry, my luggage is on wheels, but thanks for the offer!!

Posted by: cabster | February 28, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

A foredcast of snow likely by the NWS just means the odds favor precipitation of at least at least .01" water equivalent in the form of snow.

NWS probability of precip forecasts - regardless of type - are for a minimum of .01", which could occur from a heavy drizzle to short duration heavy showers, to light rain over many hours. Doesn't tell you a lot, does it?

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2010 8:53 PM | Report abuse

I appears to me that the weird east-west el nino pattern that brought the heavy, wet major accumulations to DC as well as the Delmarva peninsula in early February has morphed into a more normal March pattern, where the storm track is more indeterminate, and therefore more normal for this time of year.

My bet is that the latest storm system will be a wintery mix, with a minor day's inconvenience, if that.

However, I would not be shocked to see a late winter snowstorm of the 4-8 inch variety, that surprises all the weather forecasters, including the CWG. After that, spring is one the way.

Posted by: MillPond2 | February 28, 2010 8:58 PM | Report abuse

CWG,

Where's your next update?

Your adoring fans are eagerly waiting!

Posted by: kolya02 | February 28, 2010 11:06 PM | Report abuse

To "waterfrontproperty," sorry, my luggage is on wheels, but thanks for the offer!!

Posted by: cabster | February 28, 2010 8:35 PM

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Rats!

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | March 1, 2010 12:35 AM | Report abuse

Consistently inconsistent model runs at 00z NAM and GFS, yes there is still hope.

Posted by: ntrlsol | March 1, 2010 1:32 AM | Report abuse

Sunday could only be considered a "Calm Day" if you weren't tuned into the Gold Medal Team USA vs. Canada men's ice hockey game. I need some soothing snow after this craziness! :-)

Posted by: TheAnalyst | March 1, 2010 3:22 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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