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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/13/2010

Forecast: Calm-ish weekend, snow risk Monday

By Jason Samenow

Clouds, possible light snow or flurries this morning

* Later: Snow Lover's Crystal Ball | Politician sounds off on snow *
* Regional snow stats | Snowbound in suburbs | Best of storm comments *
* News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5A rather ordinary, variably cloudy winter day.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Slight chance of morning light snow or flurries, then decreasing clouds. 33-38. | Tonight: Clearing, breezy, and cold. 18-24. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 35-39. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The last two Saturday's have brought significant snow, so it's nice to have a break from that today (save the chance of a little light snow this morning, mainly south). Likewise, tomorrow will be tranquil, giving crews more time to clear roads and the sun additional opportunity to work on the snow pack. But just as the region starts to get back to normal, another potential snow event enters the picture. And that's the story this February.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): As the storm which brought snow to Dallas (Tx.), Mobile (Al.), Atlanta (Ga.) and the Carolinas passes out to sea, clouds and any light snow or flurry activity (20% chance) will dissipate this morning. This afternoon, it will become partly sunny but chilly, with highs in the mid-30s. Winds will be from the north at around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Skies will clear and it will be quite cold, with lows from the mid-teens in the colder suburbs to the low 20s downtown. There will be a bit of breeze from the northwest at around 15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through early next week...

walking_web.jpg
A wintry landscape on the Mall yesterday morning. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Valentine's Day (Sunday): Look for partly to mostly sunny skies but chilly conditions. Though highs will close-in on 40 in many spots, it will feel more like freezing factoring in a 15 mph breeze from the west. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: After clear skies in the evening, some high clouds will likely increase late at night ahead of the disturbance to potentially give us snow on Monday. Lows will range from the upper teens to low 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Some snow is likely to develop on President's Day as an energetic upper level disturbance pivots through the region. Some snow accumulation is possible, with the best chance of more than a couple inches northeast of the District while locations south and east of District could mix with sleet or rain. We'll have additional information in a Snow Lover's Crystal Ball later this morning. Highs will likely be in the low-to-mid 30s. Snow will taper off Monday night, with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium

It will become partly sunny and breezy Tuesday as Monday's disturbance heads up towards the Northeast. Highs will be in the 30s to near 40. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | February 13, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Politician sounds off on D.C. region & snow
Next: Monday snow: Light to moderate, unlikely big

Comments

GFS is being a bit "wishy washy" on the clipper event on President's Day! NAM is now say 3"-6" now though.

Posted by: snowlover | February 13, 2010 5:16 AM | Report abuse

Jason, it sounds as if there will be less snow once again to the SW of DC. Is this correct? (I certainly hope so!)

Snowlover, could you please post the links to the NAM/GFS information? I'd like to understand how that works and how it translates into snowfall. Thank you!

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 13, 2010 5:33 AM | Report abuse

Accuweather already saying 6-12 for us. Of course, that's accuweather.

Posted by: capsfan5 | February 13, 2010 5:46 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 13, 2010 6:24 AM | Report abuse

But is Accuweather saying it with a hysterical video screaming about snow for DC?

We're going to venture downtown and see a movie today. It will be my first trip into or through town since the Jan. 30 storm.

Posted by: Murre | February 13, 2010 6:58 AM | Report abuse

today will be our 16th straight day of not hitting our normal seasonal high temp, way things are going could easily make it past a month, what's the record?

Posted by: TGT11 | February 13, 2010 7:08 AM | Report abuse

Interesting new feature at wunderground: http://www.wunderground.com/auto/wxmap/

Posted by: davidcc | February 13, 2010 7:46 AM | Report abuse

I believe the Accuweather Alarm is a computer generated forecast and it doesn't seem to always match their snow maps.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 13, 2010 8:14 AM | Report abuse

davidcc

Thanks for that site. It is very cool and I have already passed it along.

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | February 13, 2010 8:57 AM | Report abuse

davidcc: That is a cool site. I discovered one of my neighbors has a weather station.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 13, 2010 9:26 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, it was an accuweather video forecast from one of their meterologists.

Posted by: capsfan5 | February 13, 2010 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Norfolk Southern Railway is using the Snowmageddon name and posted some pics.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 13, 2010 9:37 AM | Report abuse

@spgass1

Thanks for the Norfolk Southern pics! As a bit of a train enthusiast, I enjoyed those.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 13, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

CWG -

I was hoping you could shed some light on this. From a previous NWS discussion (A few days ago):

A NEAR PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM LAST NIGHT W/ TEMPS BARELY
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OBS MAKING THE
EFFORT TO DROP INTO L-M20S...BUT OVERALL - AREA TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK. THE IMMENSE
SNOW COVER EVAPORATION EFFECTS ARE KEEPING THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT
RELATIVELY MOIST...WHEREAS W/ NO SNOW COVER - TEMPS WOULD CERTAINLY
BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS - L20S UNDER THIS TYPE OF DRY WNWLY
FLOW.

I can understand what they're saying, but I always thought a heavy dense snow-pack helped lower temperatures at night. Here they clearly say that with NO snow cover temps would've dropped even lower. Can you explain?

Thanks.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 13, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

@spgass1, also thanks for the Norfolk Southern pics. Will be interesting to see if any of them show up on Trains weekly mailings.

Re: Accuweather, estimates, aren't most weather models computer generated nowadays?? Accuweather's estimates are usually pretty accurate, certainly no better or worse than a lot of other pre-storm estimates. The NWS was yo-yo'ing all over the place on from Mon.-Wed.

I don't watch Accuweather video clips. Why watch a meteorologist scratch his armpit. ; ))

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 13, 2010 10:26 AM | Report abuse

my favorite comment from the storm was "we're gonna need a bigger shovel".

it may have subconsciously been the inspiration for this thing in my lawn...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/58171957@N00/

(originally posted last night, so, sorry for the re-post, but seems like by the time my sculptures are ready everybody's gone....)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 13, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

Great sculpture walter.

Do you think you will every try to "paint" one of your sculptures?

Posted by: crazer | February 13, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

@Walter: Great Sculpture -- your work is so cool. I share it with many friends that have yet to discover the wonder of CWG.

Posted by: AlexandriaAnna | February 13, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

Great piece Walter. Nice chompers.
And thanks Walter for your comments earlier this week RE: roofs & roof loads. That info enabled us to breathe a little easier when our townhouse was ticking & groaning all last weekend under the immense snow & ice load. Jeez what a winter.....
Is Ian still shaking the crystal ball?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 13, 2010 10:48 AM | Report abuse

Will be waiting for the SCLB anxiously. I have 3 Dr appts scheduled for Monday, and I NEED to make all 3 of them if at all possible. 2 of them are in Arlington/Alexandria area in the afternoon. With the hills near Carlyn Springs Rd (near N VA Community Hospital) I need to be able to make a decision if I'll make it to that appt safely. Hope you all are doing well.

Weatherdude -- thinking of you buddy! Can't wait to hear about the aftermath of 'snowpocolypse in dixie'. ;-D

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 13, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

Amazing sculptures, Walter. I haven't seen anyone put the snow to better use.

Posted by: pundito | February 13, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

Hey, have y'all seen this story in the WaPo about an over-the-top meteo who's been in the news -- with good reason ;)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/12/AR2010021204940.html?hpid=topnews

Posted by: krosseel | February 13, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

@walter-in-falls-church: Your sculptures are magnificent! Thanks for posting them.

Posted by: katze-arlington | February 13, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

Not sure if this is appropriate for this blog, but someone sent me a link to another interesting snow sculpture.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 13, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

Well for Monday's coming snow we've now gone from "Don't worry, it's a moisture starved clipper and we'll only get 1 inch at most" to "OMG we're gonna get over 6 inches!!!". With the kind of winter we're having I wouldn't be surprised if it was another 6-10" storm like we had Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Not sure if many of you were up late last night but that southern storm in Georgia that was supposed to go due east went more due north. The color radar on this very page around 1am showed a big blue blob over the whole DC metro area, and snow as far north as Baltimore. Of course most of that was probably virga, but after all the snow we have had it was frightening to see nonetheless - especially since all of that was supposed to barely creep over the Virginia border with NC.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 13, 2010 11:17 AM | Report abuse

@southbridgemom

SLCB will be up around noon

@300_sq_ft

I think that because of all the water content in the snow (because there's so much of it) it's causing the effect NWS is describing. If there was less snow, with less water content, the effect would be to allow cooler night time temps.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Great job Walter. The whole family loved your shark! Amazing!!!

Posted by: celestun100 | February 13, 2010 11:26 AM | Report abuse

Wow, Walter - I cannot believe the sculptures you do. Just incredible.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 13, 2010 11:27 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 13, 2010 11:29 AM | Report abuse

***KUDOS TO WALTER!***

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 13, 2010 11:32 AM | Report abuse

I thnk the GFS is get acting like the GFS in regards to the Monday clipper and I'm not paying too much attention to it. The NAM looks to have a better handle on this so I will say the Monday event looks like 3" to 4". However the GFS long range indicates a lot of activity from Feb 19 to Feb 23. That may be rain or snow but the trend looks to be warmer towards the end of the month but we still may have one more "big one" before the season is over.

Brownlab


Posted by: ntrlsol | February 13, 2010 11:38 AM | Report abuse

Amazing sculptures, Walter! Thanks for sharing.

Posted by: DCcola | February 13, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

The only good thing about these storms are Walter's sculptures.

Honestly, I don't care how much or how little we get Monday. I think this area is at the tipping point. It will be the flake that broke the region's back. We are still trying to cope from last week, we just can't take anymore. It's not just the transportation system is still mostly down, the roads are not safe, and the stores can't restock because of the foregoing, it's that people can't take anymore. I shudder to think what more snow may bring.

Posted by: epjd | February 13, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

ntrlsol - I like your call for Monday's snow. Sounds good to us, here at CWG, too!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 13, 2010 11:58 AM | Report abuse

Just got back from my first venture further than a mile from my house in over a week.

Two observations:

1) AWESOME job by Loudoun County road crews in the eastern part of the county. Great work guys and gals.

2) The loss of trees, particularly evergreens, is massive. Much more than I could've imagined. There are areas where I could see an entire tree line down. Breathtaking sight. At the risk of being called "Debbie Downer" again , the economic and agricultural impact of this winter will be felt for quite some time.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 13, 2010 12:02 PM | Report abuse

thanks for the "props" guys!

if CWG can keep the snow coming, i'll keep the sculptures coming....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 13, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Plurals do not require apostrophes. It should be "The last two Saturdays...."

Posted by: DancingBearVA | February 13, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

The FootsForecasters are predicting "6 inches or more by Tuesday noon across much of the I-95 corridor from Washington to Philadelphia. Amounts may approach 12 inches in portions of northern Maryland, as well as the MD eastern shore and Delaware."

http://www.footsforecast.org

Take it for what it's worth from a bunch of high school kids (working without any pay) who have been as accurate, if not more so, than the paid meteorologists at many privatly-owned weather forecast sites.

Posted by: critter69 | February 13, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Walter, another wonderful sculpture!

Posted by: Murre | February 13, 2010 6:04 PM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring:

Having just ventured out towards your neck of the woods, I would agree that Eastern Loudoun is in good condition. Want an eyeopener? Come on out to mine in Lincoln (Western Loudoun). What a mess. I know they are doing their best but we are still impassible on many, many roads. Not complaining..we love the country but...a different world!

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | February 13, 2010 6:27 PM | Report abuse

worldtraveler83, I haven't heard much about it lately but is there still talk of secession out your way? I believe the name of the new county was to be Catoctin County.

Had some big gusts in the last hour out my way in Warren County... 21.4F

Posted by: spgass1 | February 13, 2010 7:30 PM | Report abuse

You know, it's sort of died down of late. Don't know why. I think some of it has to do with misunderstandings between the "East and the West" ( as opposed to North and South)! You're right about it being called "Catoctin County". Even though we are not that far distance-wise, the difference in "cultures" is apparent. Not in any bad way, just different. Lots of dirt, back roads, much space between houses, and a "countrfied" way of life. In any case, we ALL got a ton of snow...some places just remove it faster and easier than others : )

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | February 13, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

worldtraveler83, it is real pretty country out that way. I imagine the real estate "crash" probably put a stop to most new development. Have a great night and enjoy the snow.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 13, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

spgass1, yeah I'm hoping the the crash will continue to slow things down. Was way out of control. I'm "enjoying" the snow..walked out to the barn with snow up to my upper thighs...talk about cardio workout!! Couldn't even bring myself to feed the darn birds..could only think about getting back to the driveway. It is beautiful though. I'm loving it. Soon I'll be mowing for 4 hours a week all summer long. Enjoy the peace!

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | February 13, 2010 9:24 PM | Report abuse

Single most cowardly forecast I have ever seen from any news source. They have not posted all day. Does this tell you something? Don't tell me it's because it's Sunday, after the brutal week we have had. It's still awful out there. The Post is scared to death to note the reality: Another big storm Monday and Tuesday, not as big as the last two: But 6-10" on top of the unremoved snow ought to do it. Scared of the Feds, and the need to close on Tuesday. We'll see; The Post's silence speaks volumes.

Posted by: faygokid | February 13, 2010 11:48 PM | Report abuse

Keep the snow coming! I hope we get belted with another major snowstorm (a couple feet or more) before the winter is over.

I especially like to watch the massive traffic backups caused by the snow storms! Maybe the public will start demanding funding for more public transportation instead of spending $700 billion/year to kill people.

Anyone who has traveled abroad (esp. Japan and Western Europe) knows just how delapidated and archaic our mass transit system is.

So I say bring on more snow storms so we can have more colossal traffic jams! The DC area has the 2nd worst traffic in the country second only to the Los Angeles.

So c'mon everybody! Let's go for gold!

Rip up all sidewalks, build tons more roads and drive throughs, encourage more driving, and offer rebates for the purchase of more cars (esp. big gas guzzling SUV's and hummers)!

Posted by: montana123 | February 14, 2010 8:42 AM | Report abuse

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