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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/15/2010

Forecast: Some snow likely this afternoon

By Jason Samenow

Some rain may mix D.C. and SE late, light accumulations

Next update ~11 a.m.

* Winter Weather Advisory N & W of D.C./Fairfax County (map) *
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Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
4Raw and cold with nuisance snow.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Snow developing early this afternoon. 31-35. | Tonight: Snow or rain/snow mix diminishing. 25-30. | Tomorrow: Gradual clearing, breezy. 34-38. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

SETTING THE SCENE

For a region now used to double digit snowstorms, today's "event" should be a piece of cake. Nonetheless, snowfall this afternoon and evening has the potential to be disruptive for the commute home (for those without the day off). Like most D.C. winter storms, the worst conditions will likely be north and west of the beltway whereas the normally warmer spots downtown, around National Airport, and to the southeast may not see much accumulation. After today's storm, dry but chilly conditions -- conducive to slow melting -- will hang on until at least the weekend.

ACCUMULATION MAP AND TIMELINE

11 AM to 3 PM MON
Snow develops SW to NE. Temps 31-35.
3 PM to 8 PM MON
Snow, possibly mixing with rain DC & SE late. Temps 30-34.
8 PM to 1 AM TUES
Precip ends DC and south. Chance of light snow north. Temps 29-33.
1 AM to 6 AM TUES
Light snow or flurries north of DC taper off. Temps 25-30.

Forecast Confidence: Medium

IMPACT FORECAST


FORECAST IN DETAIL


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Clouds lower and thicken this morning as temperatures climb through the 20s and into the low 30s. By late morning, some spots southwest of the beltway may see some flakes falling. Snow will expand to the northeast in the afternoon and may become briefly moderate. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 30s. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Snow will likely decrease in intensity during the evening, as a dry slot works its way into the region after about 8 p.m.. As the snow tapers off, some light rain or drizzle may mix in areas where temperatures are around or above freezing (primarily from downtown and to the southeast). After 10 p.m., the chance of any precipitation will gradually decrease from southwest to northeast. Once midnight strikes, the chance of precipitation will drop to less than 30% (but would be all snow as colder air streams back into the region). Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the week...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Light snow or flurries may linger in the northern suburbs through the morning (20% chance), but partial clearing will have spread to the entire region by afternoon. It will be blustery (winds from the west at 10-20 mph), with highs in the upper 30s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Skies will turn clear and it will be cold, with lows 16-23 (suburbs-city). Winds will be from the west at around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday through Friday will be partly to mostly sunny and dry with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid-to-upper 30s on Wednesday will climb to the low 40s on Thursday and to the low-to-mid 40s by Friday, helping to accelerate melting of the snow pack. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper teens in the coldest suburbs to the mid-20s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

The weekend is a bit of a wild card at the moment as models have been alternating between showing significant storminess, weak storminess and no storminess at all. I tend to think there will be some storminess with some wintry precipitation but details are murky. Irrespective of storminess, the pattern will support colder than average temperatures, with highs in 30s to near 40, with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Low

By Jason Samenow  | February 15, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Brief snow and mix to pivot through region

Comments

At this point, the NWS is calling for tranquil weather next weekend:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=LWX&llon=-77.734583&rlon=-77.184583&tlat=38.695417&blat=38.142917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=139&map.y=97

I will cross my fingers that the present forecast holds true.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 15, 2010 5:26 AM | Report abuse

The NWS is calling for hours of mixed rain and snow today during the afternoon and the evening. This is for places such as Bethesda, Oakton, and Waldorf. Obviously they are putting the zone of rain a little further to the west than CWG does, that doesn't really concern me. The big difference is that CWG says rain is only going to be after dark, for a few hours. I am really curious to see what happens. And I don't want to see any rain!

Posted by: Murre | February 15, 2010 5:27 AM | Report abuse

I'm hoping for more snow than what is being predicted now. I'm in the ultimate snow lover category! Although, spring will be nice when it arrives (except for the allergies that come with it).

Posted by: harrison794 | February 15, 2010 5:30 AM | Report abuse

Three inches?? Three inches?? BRING IT!

Posted by: artandcarly | February 15, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Its interesting - in a normal winter, 3" of snow would bring maybe 100 comments in the AM leading up to the storm. This winter where 10+ inches seems the norm? Meh...

Posted by: SJ43560 | February 15, 2010 9:13 AM | Report abuse

re: 3 inches

That's on the high end... more likely closer to 1" than 3".

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 15, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Hi, the snow on my roof has not melted much. There is some melting but since I don't get a lot of sun, it seems to be freezing up. Icicles are hanging on all sides of the roof. At what point should I get worried? I hear some sounds from the roof, but not a lot. Is the rain/snow/sleet tonight going to make things worse?

Should I hire a contractor to look at the roof or to clean the gutters or put stockings with salt on the roof? Any ideas? Thanks in advance.

Posted by: RoseVA | February 15, 2010 9:31 AM | Report abuse

Any chance this is gonna start closer to noon than 3? I've got stuff I need to get out of tonite & the sooner it starts the better!!

Posted by: wadejg | February 15, 2010 9:33 AM | Report abuse

wadejg, not really, leading edge is still in SW VA. I don't think you'll have much of an excuse to bank on.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 15, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Mother Nature is gonna make me a liar tonite then.

Oh well, at least I'll have good company in hell & I hear it's a dry heat. ;-)

Posted by: wadejg | February 15, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

I just have one question (to the extent it can be answered): When is there an end in sight???? An end to the constant storms and lower than average temperatures??

Posted by: liledjen4901 | February 15, 2010 10:14 AM | Report abuse

Any chance this rain will be enough to melt the mounds of ice all around my house, and on the streets?

Posted by: jojo2008 | February 15, 2010 10:15 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, how about some information on when this pattern will change and we will return to normal (or above normal) temps for a change...I am hoping for a hot and dry spring...

Posted by: steske | February 15, 2010 10:22 AM | Report abuse

wadejg,
perhaps it's dry heat, but the thing that scares me about hell is the lack of snow....

CWG,
if this stuff does mix with/change to rain, what kind of qpf are we talking about? i mean, is it going to be like a drizzle/mist, or like real rain?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 15, 2010 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Although I don't think there is a lot of precip to work with with this clipper, I don't think much mixing is going to occur in the district and close by suburbs such as PG and AA counties. I think 2" or so will be the common totals with a bit more in the mountains...

Posted by: snowlover | February 15, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse


I believe the last day we had above average highs (and above average avg temp) was Jan 28.

Up to today, there have been 17 days in a row with below average high temperatures.

Accuweather long range forecasts see no break in pattern over next 15 days. If so, that would be 32 days in a row with below average highs....

...is there a record for this type of pattern?

Posted by: sleestak3 | February 15, 2010 10:42 AM | Report abuse

The fatigue from the weather is palpable. I give major props to DC for clearing major roads though -- the front loaders and dump trucks were hard at it all night on Connecticut Avenue. But won't the combination of the scooping/dumping snow and the frigid temps completely destroy the roads? I'm in the chorus too of wondering when the temperature will begin to provide relief. March is at least on the horizon, where the average daily high is above 50. Cannot get here soon enough, presuming we actually do have warmer temps!

Posted by: esmerelda123 | February 15, 2010 10:53 AM | Report abuse

RoseVA: I'm not worried about my own roof collapsing anymore -- if it hasn't collapsed already, it isn't going to, because the snow is not going to get any heavier.

I am knocking some icicles off my gutters to relieve the weight (but beware -- the icicles may be useful if they are redirecting water to drip onto the ground instead of through your window seals)

Posted by: stuckman | February 15, 2010 12:14 PM | Report abuse

stuckman, thank you. Some icicles broke yesterday, but so many more cropped up overnight. I checked the gutter pipes this morning. They are all frozen, all the way to the ground. I am contemplating doing the pantyhose full of salt idea. I will ask the condo board before I do anything, b'coz the roof is considered as common area.

Thanks again. My next house will be facing south and will have no shade what-so-ever :-)

Posted by: RoseVA | February 15, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Alas, it's pretty difficult to build a house that only faces south!

Posted by: bobsewell | February 15, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

bobsewell, :-)

I know! I am tired of all the northwest winds in winter and never melting snow in winter though. I have to hope for better things for the next house. When the northwest winds comes blow thro the area my bedroom feels like a train is going by the house.

Posted by: RoseVA | February 15, 2010 4:09 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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