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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/ 9/2010

Forecast: Fierce winter storm to sock region

By Matt Rogers

Snoverkill: 6-16" of snow and powerful winds

(next update ~11 a.m.)

* Winter Storm Warning thru Wed for most of metro area (map) *
* Making history? | Storm Q&A | Snowmageddon's incredible output *
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* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *
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Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
3Wednesday should be worse, but we'll be dealing with a mess by late afternoon again.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy, snow and/or sleet developing from mid-day into the afternoon. 29-32. | Tonight: Snow likely. 26-29. | Tomorrow: Snow continues into afternoon. Windy. 26-29. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

SETTING THE SCENE

More snow is on the way today into tomorrow as the latest in the series of storms batters the region. Our incoming storm will come in two punches...one this afternoon into tonight and another tomorrow. The first punch will bring snow this afternoon and tonight, which may mix with sleet from D.C. and to the south and east. The second punch will deliver the stronger blow as very gusty winds bring the potential for blizzard conditions, and unfortunately, power outages. Keep your chin up and realize that if we can get through the next two days, it looks as though we'll have an extended break from winter storminess for at least the next week or so.

ACCUMULATION MAP AND TIMELINE

11 AM to 3 PM TUE
Snow develops SW to NE. Possible sleet S & E. Temps 28-31.
3 PM to 8 PM TUE
Snow, possible sleet S & E. Temps 27-30.
8 PM to 1 AM WED
Snow. Temps 26-29.
1 AM to 6 AM WED
Snow, especially north. Temps 26-29.
6 AM to 12 PM WED
Snow increasing, possibly heavy. Windy. Temps 26-29.
12 PM to 6 PM WED
Snow tapering to flurries. Windy. Temps 27-30.

Forecast Confidence: Medium

IMPACT FORECAST

STORM FAQs


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Where is the precipitation now? Check out the national radar for a wide view of the storm. Monitor its approach using the regional radar to the right. Note, parts of the leading edge or precipitation shown on radar may be virga, which is precipitation in the air that is not yet reaching the ground.

When will the precipitation start again? Start time will be most likely be from around midday to mid-afternoon. The precipitation will move in at a fairly rapid clip from the south so we could see snow arriving in the southwest suburbs late morning to noon and the northeast edges of our region by 3pm. Sleet may mix with the snow especially from downtown D.C. and to the south and east.

Keep reading for more FAQs. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Just found us? Visit us 24/7 -- rain, snow or shine -- at washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang.

What will travel conditions be like this afternoon and evening? Snow should begin lightly, but could reach moderate intensity levels by 5 p.m. into the evening hours. Evening travel will deteriorate and is not recommended. Snow plows will be attempting to stay ahead of the storm. The heaviest snow with the "first punch" should be between 8 p.m. and just after midnight.

What will it look like tomorrow morning? This looks to be the most severe period of the storm. Snow and wind will likely pick up in intensity towards mid-morning. The increasing winds could blow the freshly fallen snow around, reducing visibilities at times and producing near-blizzard conditions.

When does it end? The end-game appears to be late tomorrow afternoon. Snow could still be moderate to heavy from midday through mid-afternoon, especially toward Annapolis and Baltimore. But we should see a reduction and then cessation of the snow by late afternoon into early evening. Winds could range from 15 to 25 mph into the evening with higher gusts, which will unfortunately blow that snow around again.

What is your forecast confidence? Our confidence that this storm will not measure up to last weekend in terms of inches is fairly high. We do not have the same amount of moisture available as last time. However, our confidence in specific accumulations is still just moderate as the evolution of this storm will be complex.

What is the range of snowfall probabilities?

20%: Less than 6"
35%: 6-10"
35%: 10-16"
10%: 16"+

Most likely-- 6-10" south and west of downtown, 8-16" north and east of downtown

The usual higher-elevation western to northwestern suburbs run the risk of running to or above the high side of the ranges, while proximity to the coastal storm may elevate totals to the east and northeast. Possible sleet mixing in with snow could reduce totals from downtown D.C. to points south and east.

What other impacts should we be prepared for? Travel will continue to be hazardous and ill-advised during this event, especially Wednesday morning. Dress warmly when going out to shovel, as wind chills will dip into the teens (especially toward Wednesday night). Be mindful of snow weight on areas that may not be able to take another 6-10" or more of snow. This level of snow pack can be quite dangerous, so be careful out there. Considering the likelihood for strong winds Wednesday, power outages will be a possibility. See our update from last night for tips on dealing with them.

Can this be over now? The good news is that a major storm in Texas later this week will most likely stay very far to the south of us and head toward Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean. So our area should have a much-needed break to recover. There may be more storm chances later next week, but we believe we can eke out at least a seven-to-ten day break in winter action. Unfortunately, a prevailing cold pattern will continue so the snow will be slow to melt and we could still face more snow chances in the final third of February.

By Matt Rogers  | February 9, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forget Snowmageddon, let's call it Wintergeddon
Next: Next storm closes in; no change in forecast

Comments

I am really surprised with 3.5 flakes considering snow totals coul reach above 8" even in DC with blizzard conditions likely.

Posted by: snowlover | February 9, 2010 5:05 AM | Report abuse

CWG, your accumulation map shows 3-6 for for the Stafford-Fredericksburg area, but the NWS and TV outltets are saying 10-20 for that area. I obviously like your forecast better because the less snow the better, but why the disparity in amounts?

Thanks, and great job as always to you guys.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 9, 2010 5:16 AM | Report abuse

Just incredible....

Posted by: krosseel | February 9, 2010 5:19 AM | Report abuse

So I have been battling with my electric furnace since 4am. It just keeps blowing cold air. I even went out and shoveled out the heat pump. No success. Anyone have similar problems in winters past?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | February 9, 2010 5:49 AM | Report abuse

From which direction can we expect these winds?

Posted by: hawknt | February 9, 2010 5:50 AM | Report abuse

Good morning, for the Stafford question, we believe there is more potential for sleet to mix in which will reduce totals. Also, the better dynamics of this particular storm are north and east (toward Baltimore and up the I-95 corridor). On the wind question, expect north to northwest with the higher winds on Wednesday.

Posted by: MattRogers | February 9, 2010 6:14 AM | Report abuse

With all the differences in the amounts, I'm sure mets are being conservative and many just don't know as the second part of the storm won't even form until tomorrow. They kept saying lower totals south and east of the district for the last storm and in Dale City we got 25 inches. I believe NO ONE...the snow has made me paranoid LOL

Posted by: tressoleilgoddess | February 9, 2010 6:18 AM | Report abuse

NBC4 just increased totals for metro area to 12-18" due to an increase amount of energy coming from the Gulf. Surprised that they are not talking about when/where the Low intensifies (back to the north/south question)!

Posted by: sgc4 | February 9, 2010 6:26 AM | Report abuse

Good morning, NBC just upped the snow total amount do to more moisture being picked up in the Gulf Of Mexico. They are now calling for 12-16 in Washington. Wonder what the Capital Weather Gang thinks about this new total.
THanks for all of your work.

Posted by: thecavs1 | February 9, 2010 6:27 AM | Report abuse

"...we'll have an extended break from winter storminess for at least the next week or so"

Extended break? Has sarcasm and dry wit become part of the forecast? Are you saying we will be doing this again next week? Uggh.

Posted by: dtestard | February 9, 2010 6:29 AM | Report abuse

I'm firing up the oven now: gonna do some baking before the snow starts while the power is definitely on. Hunkering down again. [sigh].

Posted by: BadMommy1 | February 9, 2010 6:30 AM | Report abuse

I know you're not travel gurus, but what impact will this have on the airports? If I have an early afternoon flight out of IAD do I even stand a chance of getting out of here away from the snow?

Posted by: bbtonbear | February 9, 2010 6:40 AM | Report abuse

@PoorTeacher. Maybe the unit defroster has failed?

I also find that my heat pump throws out warmer air if I manually turn it on, let it run til the house reaches the temp I want, and then turn it off manually. If I let it operate automatically by the thermostat, I get a lot of cold air in the house; not sure why.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 6:42 AM | Report abuse

"The usual higher-elevation western to northwestern suburbs run the risk of running to or above the high side of the ranges."

Yep. NWS forecast for Harpers Ferry and environs is now dire.

And I expect that at least some portions of area will get wind advisory or warning. NWS seems shy about giving those out in advance.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 6:46 AM | Report abuse

"The usual higher-elevation western to northwestern suburbs run the risk of running to or above the high side of the ranges."

Yep. NWS forecast for Harpers Ferry and environs is now dire.

And I expect that at least some portions of area will get wind advisory or warning. NWS seems shy about giving those out in advance.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 6:46 AM | Report abuse

Its hard to imagine waking up when its 9 degrees here in Vienna and think there will be a mix with sleet...yes I know it has to do with the atmosphere higher up, but how is it 26 degrees 12 miles away in the District?!? Thats almost 20 degree difference. Must be some amazing heat island.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 6:47 AM | Report abuse

I am jealous of Philadelphia. They have an airport that reports astounding snow totals compared to my cousin who lives two miles away. We have the opposite problem...obviously.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 6:50 AM | Report abuse

Falls Church: Early am, still dark, sounds of a plow working on ice chunks and a loader/bucket....sounded like it was over by EFC Metro station? Jeeze Loiuse, I surrender.

Posted by: tbva | February 9, 2010 6:53 AM | Report abuse

Soory about double posting. I didn't submit 2x. Don't know how it happened.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 6:55 AM | Report abuse

wow u guys are way under these local guys

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 7:03 AM | Report abuse

do we really expect mixing to happen today......even when temps are this cold???? im going to go with CWG because they have nailed it the past couple of times.

Posted by: lll1424 | February 9, 2010 7:04 AM | Report abuse

Our two snow shovels will be bronzed & have a ceremonial retirement in the spring. The blade edges are being worn down!
What an amazing freak-winter for us snow lovers.
It's a very cold morning: Centreville VA at 16 degrees. Very thin clouds coming in. It would be nice to have a bit of that strong February sunshine this morning before the storm come in.
I'm guessing that's not gonna happen.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 9, 2010 7:10 AM | Report abuse

Anyone have a sense of how long it will take National Airport to reopen? (I assume they will have to shut down.)

I have a flight 8:30 Thursday morning, and I don't know what my chances are.

Posted by: AlexBike | February 9, 2010 7:13 AM | Report abuse

There are several reasons to be conservative regarding snow totals on this one: (1) the weather model that was the strongest with snow totals last weekend is the weakest with this one (only 8-9" in DC), (2) the moisture connection from Gulf is MUCH WEAKER than last weekend's storm, (3) the first low tracks into Ohio and western PA which usually offers mixed precipitation to our area (warm mid-level layer...not at surface...that could offer sleet, especially south and east of city), (4) and that first low will pass the baton to the coastal development farther north this time, meaning less impact for here and more impact for Baltimore and points north and east.

Posted by: MattRogers | February 9, 2010 7:16 AM | Report abuse

Regarding transportation questions, a flight out of Dulles early this afternoon should be ok from a weather standpoint. Some models suggest start-time is later this afternoon. A flight Thursday morning could see delays due to backup from earlier cancellations and delays. Tough to say as always!

Posted by: MattRogers | February 9, 2010 7:17 AM | Report abuse

thx Matt
so ur not buying the NBC "more moisture from teh Gulf" leading to rising snow level?

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 7:22 AM | Report abuse

My Step Dad who works for Dulles told me the airport is closing at noon today.

Posted by: justin-N-sterlingVa | February 9, 2010 7:23 AM | Report abuse

@PoorTeacher with the heat pump -- is it actually blowing *cold* air (air the temperature of the outdoors) or just cool air (less warm than you'd like)? Blowing cool air is normal when it's cold outside: there's a good explanation here. Keeping the outdoor unit clear of snow will help.

Posted by: paisleyfish | February 9, 2010 7:25 AM | Report abuse

When's your next update?

Any good twelve-step programs y'all can recommend this spring for CWG addiction? :-)

Posted by: Juan-John | February 9, 2010 7:25 AM | Report abuse

David_in_Stafford, didn't you read the rules? You aren't allowed to hope for less snow on this website! That makes you a horrible kill joy who can't see beauty in the world.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | February 9, 2010 7:34 AM | Report abuse

Next update?

Posted by: davidcc | February 9, 2010 7:34 AM | Report abuse

We won't have much new information until late this morning, so look for any forecast updates to arrive late morning or midday.

Posted by: MattRogers | February 9, 2010 7:36 AM | Report abuse

Will the next update be able to finalize the actual snow amounts and offshore Low-pressure system formation and track, or will that not become completely clear until sometime this evening?

Keep up the good work, folks!

Posted by: Juan-John | February 9, 2010 7:43 AM | Report abuse

Don't know why I didn't think of this earlier:

Dec 19: SnowWreck I: The Snowtion Picture
Feb 5: SnowWreck II: The Wrath of Snow
Feb 10: SnowWreck III: The Search for Snow

Posted by: DaveB2 | February 9, 2010 7:45 AM | Report abuse

Notice that clipper system coming next Monday on the latest GFS? Bears striking similarity to what the models last Tuesday/Wednesday were showing for today/tomorrow's storm, with a gulf hybrid potential. Lets hope it stays a clipper.

Posted by: RandC | February 9, 2010 7:46 AM | Report abuse

@DaveB2: I don't think we have to search for snow right now :)

Posted by: RandC | February 9, 2010 7:47 AM | Report abuse

We may tweak our accumulation forecasts pending ground-truth and modeling updates, but those ranges in our map up above are indeed our best forecast right now. Remember, we had broad ranges verify in the last event too.

Yes, I see that clipper system Sun night into Monday morning especially on that 6z GFS. Low confidence on that one as other models keep that very weak and moisture-starved. We could probably stand a break! Whew!

Posted by: MattRogers | February 9, 2010 7:53 AM | Report abuse

The National Weather Service just announced that they will report 6.5" of snow at National Airport once this storm has passed.

They will also report 12" one mile away at Pentagon City.

Posted by: singleseatbiggermeat | February 9, 2010 7:57 AM | Report abuse

@DaveB2: I see what you did there. If you're going to go in that direction, this might be better:

Dec 19: A New Snow
Feb 5: The Snow Strikes Back
Feb 10: Return (or Revenge) of the Snow

Posted by: jochpo | February 9, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

@jochpo, Yes...good call. That works out much better....now and for any future storms this year!

Posted by: DaveB2 | February 9, 2010 8:03 AM | Report abuse

I just hope even if DCA doesn't get the record, we will get another couple inches in March to put it over the top so we can stop comparing DCA readings to some other DC readings.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 8:06 AM | Report abuse

Hey rocotten - that is not out of the question. Fair prediction regarding some snow in March.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 8:09 AM | Report abuse

singleseatbiggermeat - these are very local, exact predictions. You are saying NWS has given these totals for these two zip codes (DCA airport, Pentagon City)? I am surprised by the claimed precision one mile apart, geographically. I don't think even the best weather models to-date could make a call like this! :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 8:11 AM | Report abuse

Camden: I think he was sarcastically stating that DCA would be half anything a mile away :)

Posted by: RandC | February 9, 2010 8:13 AM | Report abuse

CWG
Will this be wet snow that is good for snowman and packing, or will it be powdery snow that does not stick together well?

Posted by: jjsoccer1125 | February 9, 2010 8:16 AM | Report abuse

It's obvious now... it's time to move the federal government down to Miami.

Who's with me?!

Posted by: B-Kraemer | February 9, 2010 8:18 AM | Report abuse

@B-Kraemer - you want the federal government closed down for hurricanes? ;)

Posted by: RandC | February 9, 2010 8:21 AM | Report abuse

20%: Less than 6"
35%: 6-10"
35%: 8-16"
10%: 16"+

Since two of the ranges overlap (6-10" and 8-16"), shouldn't the probabilities add to more than 100%? Well, this could make sense if the probability of 8-10" is 0%, but I somehow doubt that.

Posted by: jahurwit | February 9, 2010 8:21 AM | Report abuse

rocotten: Your (much) lower temperature than at DCA is a result of strong radiational cooling near ground level, aided and abetted by snow cover, light winds, and at least, relatively thin cloud cover--excellent conditions for maximum radiational cooling. (The snow re-radiates heat back into space.) It's not an indication of a colder overall atmosphere at your location.

Once the sun comes up and this effect is eliminated, you'll see your temperature approach that of DCA, which doesn't usually experience such strong radiational cooling, with or without snow cover, because it's near the water, which inhibits radiational cooling. Dulles, on the other hand, usually does.

Capital Weather Gang-Don Lipman

Posted by: Weatherguy | February 9, 2010 8:21 AM | Report abuse

PoorTeacher - do you have a programmable thermostat? We were having the same problem with our heat pump on Sat. We changed the battery in the thermostat and that did the trick. Hope you can get it working! Stay warm....

Posted by: kathyb39 | February 9, 2010 8:33 AM | Report abuse

There's a late-week storm to the south... is it going to stay south? Seems like it could turn into another nor'easter.

Posted by: Hendo1 | February 9, 2010 8:33 AM | Report abuse

wow, thanks Don

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 8:36 AM | Report abuse

You know, I don't mind wrong forecasts, but stupid forecasts bug me...why don't the people at NWS recognize that radiational cooling doesn't do it for DCA low temps? Forecasting 14 degrees for yesterday morning, we got 21; forecasting 9 degrees (!!!) and then 16 degrees for this morning; we got what, 25? How long does it take for that to sink in? The forecasts for IAD were somewhat better...You'd think they'd never been here before.

Posted by: doubtingdavid | February 9, 2010 8:37 AM | Report abuse

@jahurwit

There's a typo. The 8-16 should be 10-16. Going into fix.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 8:37 AM | Report abuse

Does anyone know what time the updated models arrive on NWS? Also, what's the EURO saying?

Posted by: dustinmfox1 | February 9, 2010 8:45 AM | Report abuse

As a federal employee, I say the government should summer in the Hamptons and winter in the Keys.

I'm no expert, but why does the radar seem to indicate that snow is entering the DC area right now?

Posted by: SpiralStairs | February 9, 2010 8:45 AM | Report abuse

I count myself as a snow lover, but if we don't get a single flake of the stuff after tomorrow, it'll be OK by me.

Posted by: rbpalmer | February 9, 2010 8:49 AM | Report abuse

I think this is ROUND 3 as the December 19 storm should be included as the first round ... same winter. Thankfully, we have these sort of winters every seven to nine years.

Posted by: marlenekoenig | February 9, 2010 8:49 AM | Report abuse

OK, I think super precise questions about personal routines are silly and hard to answer- but here I go doing it.

Precipitation starts early afternoon- if I go into DC planning to return at 1:00 on the metro to above ground stations, is that a bad idea? I assume snow will accumulate quickly.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 9, 2010 8:50 AM | Report abuse

Rand-C, Good point about the hurricanes. I guess will have to compromise and summer in the Hamptons and winter in Keys as SpiralStairs suggested ;)

Posted by: B-Kraemer | February 9, 2010 8:54 AM | Report abuse

@Bruingirl2001 since Red Line is now open above ground, for a while at least, you can try REI on Rockville Pike. Twinbrook Metro is behind a large Hilton which faces Rockville Pike, right on the other side of the street from REI. Nasty intersection to cross on a good day, though, so (1) call ahead to make sure they have what you want and (2) think 4 times before going. Can a neighbor lend you some clothes and shoes? Good luck!

Posted by: johnslau | February 9, 2010 8:55 AM | Report abuse

Matt, thank you for the reply to my question.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 9, 2010 8:57 AM | Report abuse

FYI -- very light snow started falling in Charlottesville at 8:30 am. It is already sticking to roads (probably because of the cold temp here).

Posted by: shmoozer | February 9, 2010 8:59 AM | Report abuse

I am so so so sick of the snow....

Can you give some estimate of how much snow we can expect as it starts to come down? Like from 11 AM-3 PM we can expect probably X" of accumulation?

(Since Metro will close above ground stations at 8" and I've heard bus service will be suspended around 6", this is a relevant calculation as those of us who actually have to be in to work today plot our escapes....)

Posted by: forget@menot.com | February 9, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

CWG: You have an apprentice in the wings blogging at weatherunderground. He's 17 and his forecast on Snowmeggodon days out was dead on the money. Check out the detail in this...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92

Posted by: drc231 | February 9, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

This isn't 'winter' -- it's the start of a new ice age.

Posted by: smoke111 | February 9, 2010 9:06 AM | Report abuse

I am right there on the border of 10-16 inches. I am guessing sterling will get atleast 10 inches mininum according to most forcasts. I may be nuts but I hope we get dumped on again because I will be off of work tomorrow and probably delayed thursday and I wont have to use any PTO to get paid!! Wahoo.

Posted by: justin-N-sterlingVa | February 9, 2010 9:13 AM | Report abuse

I agree with this forecast except I'd actually tweak it down a couple inches. I think most local tv stations are putting out larger snowfall accumulations than necessary. The radar actually looks pretty unimpressive so far for at least this area. I could see Philly to Boston doing much better. I would actually even leave B'more out of the big totals. I could be wrong, but that's my hunch with this system.

Posted by: swishjobs | February 9, 2010 9:13 AM | Report abuse

12z NAM is closer to your guy's forecast with .5-.75 qpf for the District and S+W and .75+ N+E.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 9, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Also, I find it funny that people are calling this the 3rd winter storm. This is actually our 4th snowstorm in the past 10 days. In a normal winter, we'd be happy with the 5 inches two Saturday's ago and the one last Tuesday night.

Posted by: swishjobs | February 9, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Flurries in the Blue Ridge Mtns east of Front Royal. 26.1F

Posted by: spgass1 | February 9, 2010 9:19 AM | Report abuse

@Dylan:

Yeah, 12z Nam looks rather unimpressive for DC. I have a feeling NWS isn't using that for this storm. I think they're banking on the coastal which seems like it may bomb out a bit too far north to give us those 10-20" totals. I seriously think 8" tops here...again, I could very well be wrong.

Posted by: swishjobs | February 9, 2010 9:21 AM | Report abuse

Latest NAM guidance is backing off precip totals for this area. I still think CWG's accumulation map is good, but I think we will end up in the middle range in all areas of the map.

Posted by: snowlover | February 9, 2010 9:25 AM | Report abuse

I swear, this winter is starting to remind me of a book I read when I was a kid--Blizzard: A Novel by George Stone.

The book was a Cold War thriller written back in the late 1970s that had DC crippled by a Soviet weapon that parked a low out in the Atlantic and just kept dumping the snow back in on the city.

And no, no other connection in my mind other than incredible accumulations...

Posted by: technomuse | February 9, 2010 9:27 AM | Report abuse

"Snowpocalypse Now Redux"

Posted by: wiredog | February 9, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

The Jan 30 storm was more of an extended nuisance than a storm IMHO. swishjobs, where are you getting four storms, unless you're counting this upcoming one as two, which you can very easily make the case for? I count Jan 30 (barely) and this past weekend plus this upcoming one.

Posted by: JefffromHuntington | February 9, 2010 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Is it me or does it seem like the $300-500M in lost productivity that OPM would estimate for this weeks government closing could have more then paid for having snow removal to keep the area up and running? Seems like something that could be contracted out even as a contigency.

Posted by: montge | February 9, 2010 9:30 AM | Report abuse

The winds concern me more than the snow totals here. I'm thinking the power outages will be more widespread, below ground lines or not. And it goes without saying, but be extra diligent for half broken branches and limbs, people.

Posted by: JefffromHuntington | February 9, 2010 9:32 AM | Report abuse

I think even low end totals will prove a nightmare for the DC-Baltimore area. Resources are stretched pretty thin. Many side streets/secondary roads in Columbia are still unplowed as it is.

Posted by: jbroon | February 9, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

I'm in Crystal City...is there a good potential for lots of ice where I am? If so...what kind of issues could metro be experiencing tomorrow in this area? thanks as always ladys and gents!

Posted by: DaLord | February 9, 2010 9:38 AM | Report abuse

Charlottesville folks - I'll be very surprised if we get 2"out of this. Just not coming together, and CWG's concerns of lack of moisture, northern trajectory, and dry slot are well founded. Rats.

Posted by: cvilleSnowMan | February 9, 2010 9:41 AM | Report abuse

Looks like TWC is pulling down the totals to the 6-12" range for Northern VA and DC/PG...looks like this storm is now trending more and more north? Local TV weathermen might not look so good tomorrow.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Now getting light snow east of Front Royal...

Posted by: spgass1 | February 9, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

If I'm reading it right, still looks like a solid 8 to 9" for College Park just NE of DC. Would still be appreciable amount of snow.

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 9:50 AM | Report abuse

You can tell on the radar that the first part of the storm is heading further north. I assume that means that the low off the coast will also form farther north. I think we are going to dodge this one. (crosses fingers)

Posted by: barbnc | February 9, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Question for CWG: have a cross-country flight today scheduled to land at 9 pm at DCA. It is not yet cancelled. Thoughts?

Posted by: dbhurwitz | February 9, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

@technomuse, I remember the book "Blizzard"; as I recall DC was buried by feet of snow (except at DCA where 5.2 inches fell), In the book, things get cruel on the Pennsylvania Turnpike; if you've been on the Turnpike west of Allegheny Tunnel in the winter, you know that part of the book isn't fiction.

As for trilogies:

Dec 19: "Fellowship of the Snow" (everyone thought it was soooo cool)
Feb 5-6: "The Two Towers" (DCA, where Sauruman lives and IAD)
Feb 9-10: "Return of the Snow" (as already suggested)

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 9:54 AM | Report abuse

@dbhurwitz

There will probably be some light to moderate snow, but it may not be bad enough to cancel flights. Worst conditions probably tomorrow morning.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

ok so I know everyone is focused on today and wed...but looking at the model runs...looks like their is another system possibly forming around the 15th/16th...grrr

Posted by: panthersny | February 9, 2010 10:05 AM | Report abuse

A few stray flurries are falling in the City of Manassas.

Posted by: irish031 | February 9, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

I moved here last Saturday from New York. It has snowed three times since that day, this storm will make four. I don't mind the snow, it's the inept response to it that gets my goat. You're like headless chickens here. I miss New York.

Posted by: bwheel21 | February 9, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

CWG, jason,
some of the weather experts here are saying things are not coming together for this storm, and many seem to be backing off accumulation predictions.

is this warranted?

extrapolationg on your snowfall map above, i'd put falls church at 9". will i get that?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

looks like u guys are nailing it again, right on target! wow.

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 10:12 AM | Report abuse

if the latest NAM is to be believed, then CWG is indeed on target and all the television stations (and NWS for that matter) a bit too high

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 10:13 AM | Report abuse

YAAAA Heard the Federal Goverment will be open on 15 Feb President's Day---Let me repeat--Heard that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL BE OPEN ON 15 FEB-- It is the right thing to do!!!

Posted by: syoung29 | February 9, 2010 10:14 AM | Report abuse

@bwheel21

Welcome to Our Nation's Capital!

Posted by: krosseel | February 9, 2010 10:14 AM | Report abuse

I think a lot of the commenter "experts" are radar reading... the question about the impact of this storm has more to do with the offshore low which hasn't even developed yet.

So, if someone knows whether or not an offshore low that hasn't developed yet is coming together or not, I would love to hear it. But I think it's a bit too early to tell. The NAM still has support for 6-12" in the DC area and 2x that to the north and east.

Posted by: markinva2 | February 9, 2010 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Light snow beginning to fall in northern Loudoun County/Lovettsville.

Posted by: map408 | February 9, 2010 10:18 AM | Report abuse

doubtingdavid,Don L

The DCA low temperature forecast is likely from Model Output Statistics (MOS), i.e., model adjusted forecasts based on past performance comparison of model surface (2 meter) temperature forecasts with what was actually observed (previous errors) - Suffice it to say the statistics do not adequately account for radiational cooling with snow cover.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

Light snow falling in Darnestown...

Posted by: kittykath311 | February 9, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Considering this area has more than just a few transplants from the NE, I guess BW knows what he speaks of.

Posted by: irish031 | February 9, 2010 10:25 AM | Report abuse

I don't think that the 12z NAM represents a huge departure from it's previous runs. The NAM has always had less QPF with this storm. What does the CWG think?

Posted by: mciaram1 | February 9, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Folks-- One of the models (the NAM) did come in with numbers that certainly wouldn't support some of the high totals you've been hearing about on TV, and might even put our numbers on the aggressive side. Having said that, we're still looking at some new model runs and will make any necessary adjustments in our upcoming update.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 10:30 AM | Report abuse

"Snowmageddonsdotter"

It's Nordic, PC. And really dumb.

Posted by: Groff | February 9, 2010 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Centreville VA 26 degrees, bright overcast, all quiet on the western(ish) front.
It's day 4 in the bunker & we plan to bust out for a supply run. We are worried about another power outage.
The road still isn't plowed but we see other folks with 2 wheel drive vehicles even crappier than ours slowly coming & going. With the forecast I figure we have another 4 or 5 hour window before the storm starts cranking.
Don't even THINK about taking that parking spot.
Still thinking blizzard conditions for NOVA?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 9, 2010 10:31 AM | Report abuse

@mciaram1

The latest NAM is somewhat lower than previous runs.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

YAAAA Heard the Federal Goverment will be open on 15 Feb President's Day---Let me repeat--Heard that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL BE OPEN ON 15 FEB-- It is the right thing to do!!!.....

Where did you hear this?!?

Posted by: DaLord | February 9, 2010 10:35 AM | Report abuse

This one has the smell of winter storms in the past...lotta build up, low delivery. I'm not complaining either...I'm over this. Weather.com has my zip in Reston as snow falling...yet, I believe it's Virga...there's NO snow falling. I think these guys are a little TOO pumped up after the last storm...reality is about to have them come crashing down. BUT, I respect CWG for sticking to their guns and I'm now expecting them to scale down their forecast.

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

Snowing in the Gaithersburg Airpark area now.

Posted by: wadejg | February 9, 2010 10:39 AM | Report abuse

thanks jason,
i know your predictions have been less "agressive" than NWS and the tv guys all along, so this "backing off" (to the extent it's happening) by them brings them more into line with your precictions. so, kudos, yet again....

my concern is that even your "conservative" predictions may not bear out. eagerly awaiting your next update (and all the posts you'll do during the storm).

wow - it's gonna snow again!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 10:39 AM | Report abuse

syoung29-

YAAAA Heard the Federal Goverment will be open on 15 Feb President's Day---Let me repeat--Heard that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL BE OPEN ON 15 FEB-- It is the right thing to do!!!

Please send me a link of your source as this is highly unlikely to be true. I'm calling you out!

thanks

Posted by: DaLord | February 9, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Here in Adams Morgan, the sky is lightening, and it seems as if the sun is trying the burst through. I'm not holding my breath, though.

Posted by: krosseel | February 9, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Federal Holidays are established by 6103(a) of title 5 of the United States Code, the only way to cancel one is via an Act of Congress signed by the president. Doubt that's going to happen in the next 3 days. Sooooooooo don't think the government will be open on the 15th.

Posted by: drmammal | February 9, 2010 10:42 AM | Report abuse

I was scheduled to fly to Florida at 1:45 today, rescheduled from Sunday. Got canceled at 10 am. Not a flake in the sky! Grr, I hoped to miss this next storm completely!

Posted by: agriffithva1 | February 9, 2010 10:45 AM | Report abuse

National Weather Service is downshifting its expectations..just released...

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1043 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ031-042-052>056-501-502-
WVZ052-053-091800-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
1043 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.NOW...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MARYLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY COAT THE GROUND
IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

$$

Posted by: shackleton | February 9, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

12Z GFS is backing off too. Totals may be toward the lower end of the CWG ranges.

Posted by: bdeco | February 9, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

parksndc, I agree this one had that smell, but so did every storm so far this season. If you go back to the comments section of every winter storm we've had this year, people call "bust" until they actually see the snow accumulating and a nice radar picture.

The 12z GFS looks to confirm it's prior run.. much more agressive than the NAM anyway.

Posted by: markinva2 | February 9, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

So if the storm doesn't come together for Washington, would the same be true in Baltimore, or are we going to see the same range regardless. I just found you guys, and you, and the other commenters, sure give a lot more detail and better info than anything I have found up this way.

Thanks

Posted by: craig19 | February 9, 2010 10:47 AM | Report abuse

thank you drmammal....I appreciate your citation of USC.

syoung29- if they want to pay me double time for working on a holiday then GO AHEAD!!! the fact is if the Govt opens next Monday they will pay EVERY SINGLE Gov't EMPLOYEE (plus some contractors) DOUBLE what they would pay them on a non-holiday.

Cheers to that!

Posted by: DaLord | February 9, 2010 10:48 AM | Report abuse

12z GFS shows 1-1.25 qpf for DC and 1.25-1.5 closer to Baltimore

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 9, 2010 10:49 AM | Report abuse

Looking at the radar, seems like once this arm of what appears to be mostly virga passes through, the real heavy stuff won't arrive until after dark. That is a big dry slot, I am guessing no accumulation here in Bethesda until much later this afternoon or early evening.

Posted by: doczoidberg | February 9, 2010 10:49 AM | Report abuse

The guy who posted about the Feds being open on President's day was OBVIOUSLY joking.

Relax people.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

@shackelton - NWS is still saying 10-20 inches.

Posted by: mickb1 | February 9, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

The northward shift in the GFS was not as dramatic as the NAM, but still noticeable. I still like a 6-12" range for Northern VA, western MD, and DC. Baltimore to NYC is still under the gun for very heavy snow. (Not that 6-12" on top of 20-30+" should be taken lightly.)

Again, still a lot of uncertainty. We'll know more when the coastal low actually begins to form.

Posted by: Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom | February 9, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

mickb1 - Check the data stamp of the 10-20 inch prediction...I presume its before the one posted above and released by NWS 11 minutes ago

Posted by: shackleton | February 9, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

@shackleton - That's just a short term outlook, they're saying only minor snow until tonight

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 9, 2010 10:56 AM | Report abuse

despite the uncertainties and trends against big snow for our area, the ground is much colder it seems which would at least prevent whatever falls in the beginning as turning into slush and water, as it did during the last storm. I think we could have gotten a couple more inches if it didn't melt all day.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

re feds opening on feb 15:

without believing him, i took his comments to mean the feds were closed UNTIL then - like they are closed for the rest of the week. i think it was a joke too. not too funny, but it sure got us talking about it......

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 10:58 AM | Report abuse

Let's clear up some confusion: NWS is calling for 12-16" in DC (http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/dc/dcz001.txt).

The 10-20" is a range that encompasses the I-95 corridor within their forecast area (with the highest amounts to the north).

I agree that 12-16" is a bit too high for D.C., however, and expect that to be lowered soon.

Posted by: Rangwx1 | February 9, 2010 10:59 AM | Report abuse

@ markinva2 - Thank you for your comments and update. Thinking back to prior storms, I do agree there were calls for busts. I remember mutlple people saying the last storm was obviously and "epic failure"...pretty funny today. I'll keep following this thing and I'm sticking to CWG's forecast for now.

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 11:00 AM | Report abuse

Got it all: I stand corrected - mea culpa

Posted by: shackleton | February 9, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

thanks, CWG! you guys are awesome, and i just wanted to let you know i appreciate your fun (and informative) posts - way better than reading the dry weather forecasts elsewhere. love how all the information i need is linked here, and love the honest confidence ratings. great site, and great work. :)

Posted by: cmm0737 | February 9, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

NEW POST.

Posted by: BrentwoodGuy | February 9, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Has anybody seen the new NBC4 predictions for our area? Their daytime news just started. . .

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

I disagree with comments that the pattern for this storm - both in terms of predictions and calls of "bust" - match the prior two big ones. The Dec. 18/19 storm had very consistent models, and predictions, and relatively few calls of "bust" from the blog compared to prior storms. Last week was also relatively consistent, with a few more busts; I was in this latter crowd, with Charlottesville getting a little over 1/2 of the low-end prediction.

This time is different - models are less consistent, forecasters are also less consistent, and the variables in plan seem to support this uncertainty. I feel justified in calling bust if a warning is issued and it doesn't materialize. And yes, I'm a "radar reader", have zero expertise, and am simply reading tea leaves 'cause I like to.

The CWG team does a great job and I can't pretend for a moment I know more than they do. Even if totals are less than predicted, they will have been closer to the truth than all other major outlets, and I think that's the ultimate measure of any meteorologist.

Posted by: cvilleSnowMan | February 9, 2010 11:10 AM | Report abuse

So, the new update is "no changes in the forecast" or did I miss something more ?

Posted by: letitsnow | February 9, 2010 11:11 AM | Report abuse

letitsnow,
"no change" in the CWG forcast - everybody else seems to be coming back to them.....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

OK, we get it, Al Gore was wrong.

Please stop snowing!

Posted by: JBMSC | February 9, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

i love how God make's fool's of the so-called wise! with all that global tree huggin cr ap that al gore and his minion's in the white house are pushing. only to have record snow fall's and temp's below freezing. you gotta love God's sense of humor with these loon's in d.c. we all knew it was a hoax they were perpetrating on us. and now God is just having fun with those idiot's!!

Posted by: aaarocket27 | February 9, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Latest for Bethesda and snow response:
http://www.bethesdaactually.com/

LOOK UP: while folks are looking down to avoid ice on the ground, don't forget a lot of awnings have ice and snow. Down town Bethesda businesses are trying to clear awning to avoid ice sheets slipping down onto pedestrians walking by but they're just starting so keep an eye out.

Posted by: leftmidfield | February 9, 2010 11:27 AM | Report abuse

Looks like this time Maryland and DC gets the brunt while the Southerners hardly get any...

Posted by: TheMarylander | February 9, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

I know that one of the toughest human afflictions to overcome is sheer, raw stupidity (face it, being dumb is just easier), but global warming doesn't mean it isn't going to snow -- it means, amongst other things -- that weather patterns will change dramatically, we will see more precipitation, and that storms will become more extreme/strong.

In other words, it is likely we will have more weather like this.

Write that on your palm.

Posted by: SwellLevel5 | February 9, 2010 11:40 AM | Report abuse

aaarocket27, you're sound like a real winner. That's some sound logic, "it's snowy on the east coast one winter, that must mean global warming is a massive hoax"...seriously, lay off the Rush Limbaugh & read a book

Posted by: mrevell83 | February 9, 2010 11:48 AM | Report abuse

@mrevell,

Would that be Al Gore's book? Or maybe he should listen to Prince Charles more often, when the good Prince says we only have years to change or it will be too late.

Posted by: irish031 | February 9, 2010 11:56 AM | Report abuse

I know that one of the toughest human afflictions to overcome is sheer, raw stupidity (face it, being dumb is just easier), but global warming doesn't mean it isn't going to snow -- it means, amongst other things -- that weather patterns will change dramatically, we will see more precipitation, and that storms will become more extreme/strong.

In other words, it is likely we will have more weather like this.

Write that on your palm.

Posted by: SwellLevel5 | February 9, 2010 11:40 AM
Share This: E-Mail | Technorati | Tag in Del.icio.us | Digg This

------------------------------------
So when we have less snow, it is obviously proof of global warming.

So when we have more snow, it is obviously a sign of climate change, and is proof of global warming.

So when we have the same amount of snow, it is obvously that we are in a holding pattern until the climate warms again.

So it is obvious that either more or less snow is not a variable to determine global warming, because there is no null hypothesis that can be developed to examine the relationship between amount of snow and global warming.

So, the fact that there appears to be a cyclical and interrelated link between minimal El Ninos, the location of the Pacific warm water in the El Nino, volcanic eruptions, minima sunspots, and the recirculator in the oceans off Labrador and Greenland (all made by our good Mother Earth without human involvement) which is testable. Before we examine the contribution of Man, perhaps we shoudl examine the contributon of Earth?

Posted by: Paladin7b | February 9, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

@irish031, any book that will get you to understand the difference between weather and climate

Posted by: mrevell83 | February 9, 2010 12:28 PM | Report abuse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhlSy95Bgvc

The blizzard in 30 seconds.

Posted by: keithrjackson | February 9, 2010 12:31 PM | Report abuse

could we get back to the topic at hand please?

6" or 16"? I'm in upper NE DC, near the Hyattsville/Takoma line.

Posted by: snowwith2kids | February 9, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

For those of you having fruitless arguments about climate change now, try reading this interesting blog post from a meteorologist yday: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1427

For those who are asking about DC's likely accumulations, in the map DC is in the 6-10 inch range, with the 8-16 zone just to the north.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 1:09 PM | Report abuse

yes, i'm in takoma too, dc/md border. would love to know what to expect in this part of town

Posted by: owensm | February 9, 2010 1:11 PM | Report abuse

one concern I have is that temps are rising into the mid 30s now across much of the area.
Are temps still going to drop off when precip begins. I know last time we has radiational cooling, but also a low off the coast keeping the cold air in place...and if that low doesn't really get going until tomorrow morning....

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

gosh the typos in that were horrendous.

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

imagine that...all rain with the overrunning moisture event and then the low itself forms to far north to give us much snow at all...I certainly hope that I wrong (and probably am since I'm just a weather geek but not a met)

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

this forecast is some what overdone and the mew data shwos why DC snow forecast for SOME areas are over

http://www.wxrisk.com/?p=516

Posted by: wxrisk | February 9, 2010 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Bad meteorologists are like bad generals they always fight the LAST war....

RIC is already 37 degrees with a se wind... and td are rising rapidly

all of the 12z Models are warmer and have r/s line getting into DCA

and they show the DRY slot punching into DCA much sooner

some these10-20" snowfall forecast for DCA are a waaay over done... NE MD? sure... that much snow is a good bet ...

Not dca...

DT wxrisk.com

Posted by: wxrisk | February 9, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

@MRE,

And of course you are aware of the fact there have been many climate changes over the years, many long before "big oil" came about. Long before factories popped up on the skyline.

Posted by: irish031 | February 9, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone know what might happen at the airports with this new storm? I know you guys aren't fortune tellers but my parents are supposed to be arriving from Scotland tomorrow afternoon. I was just wondering if anyone could give me an idea of what might happen (tough love is welcome, I need to know the best and worse case scenarios). Haven't seen them in 6 months so pretty worried right now :(

Posted by: Louise28 | February 9, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Backing off the snow totals is potentially even worse news for us, that means more sleet and freezing rain possibly, along with the winds, bad bad bad. Remember the conditions that existed during the Air Florida crash, that was mainly a sleet/freezing rain event.

Posted by: labs4m3 | February 9, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

For Poor Teacher and Tinkerbelle re heat pump problem. Due to amount of snow and high wind in past week, your heat pump compressor (outside of house unit) is probably clogged with ice (inside its cover - not the snow packed on the outside of cover). Air coming out of vents will be close to room temp. You can try to set thermostat on emergency or auxiliary heat and get heat from the heating coil in your heat exchanger (inside of house unit), rather than from the compressor, until the weather clears and warms enough (high 30s or 40s) to melt the ice in the compressor. If your compressor is iced, an HVAC service tech can't do much about it. When using the heating coil, the air from the vents will feel warm (just like with a regular electric or gas furnace). Using the heating coil will cost you a bit more in your electric bill, but not a big difference since the furnace using the heating coil will run for shorter periods than when acting as a heat pump. Good luck.

Posted by: rruesch | February 9, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Near Dumfries: snowing steadily since around 5, closing in on 2 inches already!

Posted by: fall_line | February 9, 2010 7:03 PM | Report abuse

Darn you, Groundhog!

/this is why we're supposed to hibernate: http://www.urinalgum.com/?p=15

Posted by: UrinalGum | February 10, 2010 3:25 PM | Report abuse

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