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Posted at 9:40 AM ET, 02/17/2010

Forecast: Welcome break from stormy weather

By Dan Stillman

Still, there's a chance of snow showers today

* Grading CWG's forecast performance | Blizzards & climate change *
* Must-see photos/videos | Radar & more: Weather Wall | Traffic *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5A chance of flurries/snow showers stands in the way of an otherwise cold but routine day.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Chance of flurries/snow showers. Mostly cloudy. 36-40. | Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mid-20s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Low-to-mid 40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

We're in weather cruise control with no major storm to speak of through at least Saturday, though flurries or snow showers are not out of the question today. Sunday is about the earliest we could see the next threat of significant precipitation, but even that may hold off until Monday. So, during this welcome lull from stormy weather, we shift our attention to temperatures, which show no sign of a substantial warm-up anytime soon. Remarkably, Jan. 28 was the last time the high temperature climbed above average at Reagan National.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Don't be surprised by a few flurries or snow showers through early afternoon. Otherwise, it's yet another in what looks to be a continued stretch of colder-than-average days. Highs in the upper 30s to near 40 feel even colder with 10-15 mph breezes from the west, while mostly cloudy skies allow for only a few peeks of sun. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: We haven't escaped the snow this winter, but we do seem to be avoiding many in the way of bitter cold nights. That trend continues tonight with lows in the mid-20s (around average for the suburbs, only a few degrees below average downtown). Breezes stick around through the night with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....


The World War II Memorial in snow. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Tomorrow (Thursday): One of the nicer days we've seen a while, as partly to mostly sunny skies lift highs to the low-to-mid 40s. But we still can't shake that breeze -- 15-20 mph from the west. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Partly to mostly clear and still enough of a breeze to keep the air mixed up and temperatures from plummeting too far. Lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

On Friday and Saturday we'll find few changes from Thursday -- plenty of sun, still something of a breeze, and highs in the low-to-mid 40s. Friday and Saturday night lows?... in the 20s to upper teens. Confidence: Medium-High

Conditions Sunday depend on the forward progress of what could potentially be our next significant storm. I'm leaning toward any storminess holding off until late Sunday or Monday (too early to say whether it might be wintry or wet), leaving us mostly dry during the day Sunday with highs in the 40s. Confidence: Low

By Dan Stillman  | February 17, 2010; 9:40 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Continued cold; A few Wed. flakes?
Next: Tracking the region's giant snow piles

Comments

Looks like we've finally broken this weekly precip pattern.

Posted by: SpeedLimit186000 | February 17, 2010 5:36 AM | Report abuse

Just saw Sunday's forecast ... I need some sleep.

Posted by: SpeedLimit186000 | February 17, 2010 5:39 AM | Report abuse

Well for those of you who like rain, the GFS 18z model run indicates that it will on Monday-Tuesday Feb 21 and 22. If you don't like rain, then check back later since the GFS has a tendency to change it's mind. For those who feel the snow is over for the season, check out Joe Bastardi's latest video blog on the Accuweather site. He seems to feel it may snow through March. Since he was correct about February, he is now on a roll.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 17, 2010 6:42 AM | Report abuse

ntrlsol, you said,
"...for those of you who like rain, the GFS 18z model run indicates that it will on Monday-Tuesday Feb 21 and 22."

nnnoooooo!!!

surprisingly, these aquatic animals HATE rain!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/58171957@N00/

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 6:48 AM | Report abuse

Just say NO to snow.

That is all.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 17, 2010 7:33 AM | Report abuse

Fantastic Job, Walter!! I cannot believe I feel concern for a snow sculpture. Go Seal, GO!!!!

Can you believe that this parade of storms has gotten me to adhere to my new year's resolution of getting more exercise! lol. If it rains, I'll have to go back to the gym... which will be easier than shoveling all of the snow.

Posted by: dprats21 | February 17, 2010 7:39 AM | Report abuse

Walter's sculptures are amazing. Astounding. Incredible. And I hope they melt to the ground on Monday!

Although, with my front gutter currently choked by solid ice, rain that's not warm enough to melt it fast might not be so good.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 8:00 AM | Report abuse

I have a feeling that most of the storms that come through over the next month are going to trend north and we will be on the warm air side of things.

ThinkSpring -- Booooo!

Posted by: snowlover | February 17, 2010 8:08 AM | Report abuse

Walter,
Saw Adam Caskey with Channel 7 was at your place this a.m.
You are very talented and I look forward to your work but man, you must have a lot of time on your hands!! Good for you though, that's making "lemonade" out of all these lemons!!

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | February 17, 2010 8:08 AM | Report abuse

A very nice sunrise sun pillar this morning. Made for a very nice sunrise.

Posted by: Peter_L_inmclean | February 17, 2010 8:28 AM | Report abuse

worldtraveler83,
well, i work from my home office. i pulled an "all-nighter", literally worked all night, monday night so i could "play" (make the seal sculpture) tuesday.

lemonade!? i stay away from lemonade-colored snow ;-)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 8:29 AM | Report abuse

The dubious virtues of a "slow melting process".... I need a real melt. Gotta get the now 150-lb 12' glacier stalactite off my house one of these years. I'd post pix for sceptics but my house is sort of a landmark in my area and it'd out me.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 17, 2010 8:35 AM | Report abuse

Need warmth!~

Posted by: chunche | February 17, 2010 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Spring! Spring! Spring! Spring!

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 8:50 AM | Report abuse

For those of you hoping for an early spring, Joe Bastardi at Accuweather is predicting the opposite. Bastardi said that the end of this winter should rival the worst end of winters in the last 50 years. He thinks that it will continue to be cold and snowy into Mid-march and maybe later. He is also excited about the prospect of a big snowstorm for early next week. He does not agree with the GFS that it will go to our west and give us rain.

Posted by: rginsburg | February 17, 2010 8:59 AM | Report abuse

Hear hear, Walter! I saw Adam's shot this morning, and even before he said your name, I thought, That's gotta be Walter!

Posted by: joseph4 | February 17, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

@Walter; Very nice work!... Excellent choice as the shark will need a good meal to hold him over during next weeks blizzard ;)

Posted by: dvorak9 | February 17, 2010 9:09 AM | Report abuse

ntrlsol
I didn't notice your earlier post on Joe Bastardi. You basically said the same thing that I did. I'll try not to duplicate in the future.

Posted by: rginsburg | February 17, 2010 9:10 AM | Report abuse

CWG, Many people in my neighborhood are asking me about a "major snow event coming toward the end of Feb." I am unsure where this rumor is coming from (probably Joe B...who also said we'd get 6"-10" during the last clipper) but do you have any context related to this rumor? Thanks! I will continue to enjoy reading!

Posted by: parksndc | February 17, 2010 9:10 AM | Report abuse

@rginsburg: Joe Bastardi has snow on the mind. There's no way we will have heavy snow into mid-March and beyond. The average temperatures will be too high by then. Even next weeks big storm prediction is being downgraded to be a mix or rain because the average temps are rising every day. The average high temp for March 15 is 55 degrees. Even if the Greenland blocking is still going on, we are not going to have high temps 20 degrees below normal every day. We aren't even having that now. Snow lovers surrender. You had your winter which inconvenienced millions and will have kids in school until July. Spring is coming whether you like it or not.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

@ rwalker66 Snow beyond Mid-March is not only possible but we've had recorded snow fall in April.

Posted by: parksndc | February 17, 2010 9:26 AM | Report abuse

Does anyone know what could happen if the blocking pattern persists into spring or summer? Are there analog years where we ended up with a cool summer? That would be great- after an upstate NY winter, it would be great to top it off with an upstate NY summer. :-)

Posted by: CM_in_Fairfax | February 17, 2010 9:33 AM | Report abuse

@parksndc I realize that, but those were rare one off events. Not a pattern like we have now and like Joe is predicting thru Mid-March and beyond. The most recent snow we got in April happened a day after we had 72 degree temps. I have pictures I took of daffodils bent over covered in snow. A couple days after the snow it was back in the 60's.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

@rwalker66

I'm not sure I understand your point...it still snowed a day after a 72 degree day so...you just proved it's possible...what are you saying? It sounds like you're arguing against yourself.

Posted by: parksndc | February 17, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

I wonder how Joe Bastardi thinks he can do better than computer models 5 days out? One or 2 days out, maybe, but not 5.

I figure mid-March is about the end of reasonable chances for snow in DC. Yes, there have been later snows, and not so long ago I think we even got a couple inches in early April, but if it hasn't happened by March 15, it probably won't.

Posted by: doubtingdavid | February 17, 2010 9:41 AM | Report abuse

rwalker66, you said,
"Joe Bastardi has snow on the mind."

sounds like a man after my heart....

is he the guy who "called" one of our big snows well in advance of everyone else - like he was "bullish" about it before anyone else was?

if so, then while he deserves credit for "calling" that heavy snow, does anyone remember what he predicted for monday's dusting?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 9:43 AM | Report abuse

"I wonder how Joe Bastardi thinks he can do better than computer models 5 days out? One or 2 days out, maybe, but not 5."

There are differences between the models. He is putting into his predictions the general trends for storms this season and which models seem to better support the pattern we have been witnessing.

That being said- it is clear from the array of models that there will be some kind of storm, but as always, we are on the border of rain/snow depending on the track.

Posted by: Tom8 | February 17, 2010 9:58 AM | Report abuse

@parksndc: Yes, snow is possible in mid-March and beyond, but probably not the kinds of accumulation that have inconvenienced millions and killed a few this winter -- if for no other reason that higher temperatures will melt whatever's on the ground.

Posted by: pitchtorobert | February 17, 2010 10:03 AM | Report abuse

@parksndc OK I'll try and make this simple so you can understand my point: Joe Bastardi says we will be stuck in a pattern of heavy snow thru Mid-March and beyond. I acknowledge it CAN snow in a rare event Mid-March or beyond but it will not be a pattern like he says. In my original post I said "There's no way we will have heavy snow into mid-March and beyond. The average temperatures will be too high by then". I should have said it CAN snow in a rare event but it will not be a pattern like he is saying.

@Tom8: As someone already pointed out "the great and powerful and never wrong Joe Bastardi" said we would get 6-10 inches of snow from the clipper Monday. We didn't even get an inch. It was nothing more than a glorified dusting. Did he ever admit he was wrong? Mayor Fenty held a press conference in the street on Sunday the 15th saying DC itself was going to get 4-8 inches of snow from the clipper so a snow emergency was being declared. Who do you think he got that info from? It wasn't from CWG, that's for sure.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 17, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

A year ago if someone had said that we were going to get 3 major snowstorms here this winter, I wouldn't have believed it. This winter has been truly incredible.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 17, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Assuming Walter's shark hasn't gulped it down, I hope the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball is back in this space before the end of this month, along with an 80% probablity of 4-6 inches of snow.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 17, 2010 10:15 AM | Report abuse

I second that!!

Posted by: celestun100 | February 17, 2010 10:18 AM | Report abuse

I would like one of the snow fetishists (we are well beyond "snow lovers" at this point) to explain the self-centeredness.

This is not being fun for most of us. It's been downright costly and destructive for many of us. And yet the same few people are here day after day chirpily hoping for more and showing not the least bit of sympathy -- or even comprehension -- that people are hurting.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 10:35 AM | Report abuse

@mhardy1

Well said. Good luck on finding an answer...

Posted by: tengoalyrunr30 | February 17, 2010 10:38 AM | Report abuse

Oh boy - we return to the back-and-forth on the merits of accuweather and Joe B. We need another storm to talk about! I do have to say that Arctic air is predicted to reload over Canada, and now that things are starting to warm up in the South, you gotta think some big storms are inevitable. Gotta redistribute all that heat somehow...

Posted by: curtmccormick | February 17, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

@mhardy1, Name calling on this blog usually = Fail

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 17, 2010 10:51 AM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1: No answer for my question, I see, just a deflection. About what I expected.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 10:54 AM | Report abuse

@mhardy1 @tengoalyrunr30 There are those who love extreme weather events (e.g. storm chasers) and has nothing do with being self-centered. I'm sure most of these folks are well aware of the dangers and desctruction that such events can cause.

Posted by: crazer | February 17, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

@CM and others, there was one year where it was unusually cold into the summer, known as "The Year Without a Summer." Ah yes, I remember it well, almost as if it were yesterday. Well, I would remember if I had been around in... 1816.

I don't know what the weather was like in D.C. that year but there were apparently heavy snowstorms in New England in June and river ice in Pennsylvania in July and August, and freakish weather throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere. The cause was a volcanic eruption in Indonesia and a period of low solar magnetic activity. Also interesting to hear that it was part of the "Little Ice Age" that lasted from the 14th through 19th centuries.

Hopefully we don't have any volcanic eruptions this year in Indonesia, or anywhere else. Like most people here, I'm getting tired of all this snow too.

Posted by: 123home123 | February 17, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

@mhardy1,
This has already been addressed several times in previous posts. Bad things happen in all types of weather, we cannot control the weather so we might as well make the best of what we get, enjoying a weather phenomenon does not mean you enjoy the suffering caused by it or that you are oblivious to it, etc. Also, a lot of the "snow fetish" people are the ones out volunteering to drive for hospitals and helping vulnerable neighbors...i.e. doing something to help rather than complaining about events they can't control.

Posted by: bhfairfax | February 17, 2010 11:08 AM | Report abuse

Mhardy1 Just want to point out that the quick melting you are wishing for would lead to disastrous flooding bringing more pain and anguish to those already suffering. Kettle meet pot!

Posted by: soleil2000 | February 17, 2010 11:10 AM | Report abuse

mhardy1, I don't believe any of us snow lovers wish harm to anyone. We aren't celebrating the damage they bring, we're celebrating the beauty and fun it brings. Glass half full, mhardy!

Posted by: sigmagrrl | February 17, 2010 11:18 AM | Report abuse

rwalker66
I agree that he is apologetically wrong in many cases, but I would rather know there is a chance of a big event in X time-frame and have time to adjust my life to that chance.
Joe B. makes his money on long-term predictions which is really an inexact science as we all know.
The CWG is making short-term predictions which have a much higher probability of being correct.
In the way I plan I life, I think both sources have a place and provide important information.

Posted by: Tom8 | February 17, 2010 11:22 AM | Report abuse

Snow in March: 1993, over a foot in many places (but not at National Airport). The low at Dulles shortly after the storm was about -1 F if I recall correctly.

Posted by: Murre | February 17, 2010 11:28 AM | Report abuse

mhardy1, just to add to what has been said, one of a snow-lover's favorite things about snow is how such events tend to bring communities together. My own neighborhood actually started speaking to each other and helping dig each other out. And you saw what happened at DuPont Circle ... great times were had. What major snows cause isn't all bad.

And please note that a snow-storm isn't the worst winter weather we could have. It's the ice-storms that immediately coat roads, trees and power lines in ice that really wreak havoc. Nobody wishes for that.

Posted by: SpeedLimit186000 | February 17, 2010 11:35 AM | Report abuse

Ok, here we go again with folks saying the March 1993 storm indicates we can have heavy snow in March. We can, but do you remember what that storm was called? The "Storm of the Century," because it was a very rare confluence of systems. Large storms like that are very rare...

Posted by: steske | February 17, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

Maybe Walter can create a snow-lovers' crystal ball balanced on the nose of the seal! LOL.

@mhardy: You may, or may not, realize that your "question" is not really a question, but an accusation and statement. (People within this forum who like snow have a "Fetish", and are "Self-centered..") In fact, there is no question within your 'question'. It appears to be a request ("I would like..."), for an 'explanation' (From someone you demonize within the same post) as to why they are 'bad people' (According to your rant). One cannot call people selfish deviants and expect one of these perceived 'deviants' to reasonably respond.

What a contentious morning.


Posted by: dprats21 | February 17, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

@soleil2000 ... didn't say anything about a quick melting ... and of course we can't control the weather. I just don't get the giddy cheering and hoping for more.

I'd like a slow and steady melt with no additional accumulation. We've had a record-breaking, once-in-a-lifetime winter, massive snowfalls and plenty of cold. Why is that not enough? That's what I don't understand.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 11:40 AM | Report abuse

@deprats21: I did not say people who like snow are festishists and self-centered. I like snow myself ... I love it, and was very sad when the winter of 2008/2009 went by with barely any.

So you mischaracterize what I said. the people I call fetisists are those who are still dancing for more NOW, when we're buried under feet of the stuff.

Is that really such a difficult distinction to understand?

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

BALTIMORE -- One big upside of the back-to-back snowstorms was their impact on crime.

With the weather so nasty, police have needed no other help.

As the storms gripped the city, crime plummeted. Comparing last week to the same week in 2009, the most serious crimes were down 71 percent, according to city statistics.

The fatal shooting early Tuesday morning of a man in the Park Heights neighborhood ended a nine-day stretch in Baltimore that was free of killing. That stretch put the yearly homicide total at 18 -- significantly less than the 32 homicides recorded year-to-date in 2009.

Statistics showed arrests also took a snowstorm hiatus. There were only 23 arrests in the city last week -- 79 percent fewer than the 109 arrests logged in the city for the same week in 2009.

Posted by: JW211 | February 17, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

Next event on Monday/Tuesday--rain/mix. Channel 9 is saying mix/snow, with mid-thirties or lower, however.

Still having trouble getting to my dances during the evening--the problem involves Metrobus #25 on Carlin Springs Road. Evening buses on this route are sporadic & not always showing up when they are supposed to. Most of the other buses and the ART routes #41 and #75 seem to be running OK by now. Don't know if the big hill on Carlin Springs from Columbia Pike is a problem, but the road seems to be clear. Hope they clear up this issue soon. There's a big problem with snowbanks at Carlin Springs & Columbia Pike--they are blocking the crosswalk at the traffic light.

Channel 9 & Examiner are reporting that Metro is losing lots of money due to reduced ridership/snow removal. How can they be losing so much when service has been cut SO drastically? It has been unreliable and many of the trains are 30 minutes apart...in addition the taxicabs have been charging exorbitant "snow-emergency" fares--how can you depend on public transportation when it's so unreliable and expensive???

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 17, 2010 12:12 PM | Report abuse

@steske: Ok, here we go again with folks saying the March 1993 storm indicates we can have heavy snow in March. We can, but do you remember what that storm was called? The "Storm of the Century," because it was a very rare confluence of systems. Large storms like that are very rare...

Great point and one that I continually get frustrated over when people bring up March 13, 1993. Simply for every March 13, 1993, there are over a hundred more March 13's that it did NOT snow. Thanks for bringing it up.

@mhardy1 - I'm in your corner, but I've given up trying to understand the now continued obsession with snow now that we have now had officially the most snow ever. More than our kids will ever see again, and possibly more than their kids will see in DC. The economic impact has been incredibly destructive and is continuing to be just that. Roofs are collapsing, homes everywhere with water damage from ice dams, tree damage/loss is extensive, etc, etc.

We really, REALLY need 6 weeks of normal temps and tranquil weather.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 17, 2010 12:16 PM | Report abuse

@Bombo -

Great points about public transport. I've been on that soapbox for years. I myself have abandoned Metro and now ride the bus out of Loudoun Co. It's been much more reliable in my experience.

But, back to your point. No matter what event is going on in DC, we're peppered with "Take Metro". But, as you say, it's become very unreliable. This not only impacts Metro's bottom line, but it can affect businesses in the city as well. If we want people in the city for shopping, dining, etc, it's gotta be made as easy as possible, and cheap as possible.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 17, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

rwalker66...The reason we could have winter precipitation in March or April this year has to do with the fact that snow on the ground is keeping our temperatures BELOW NORMAL...this will likely continue into Mid-March.

We probably won't see a huge storm...though the 1993 Superstorm hit on March 13 [part of that storm was sleet & rain here in Arlington], but we have a bigger chance of snow/ice events into meteorological spring this year. We shouldn't see a real warmup until we get a multi-day period into the fifties and a southwesterly flow pattern. I think this could happen in early to mid-March. Cold spells with snow flurries may occur as late as mid-April this spring.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 17, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Ok, so snow lovers who continue to love snow even now, are not only "fetishists and self-centered", but obtuse as well? Frankly, I loath 90 degree days with 90% humidity....but don't come on here hating on people who love that kind of weather...for weeks on end...and gripe about the slightest chance for a rain shower claiming it would "ruin" their weekend. I just have to suffer through it because I can't change it and griping and calling other people names will not change it either.

Posted by: ftwash | February 17, 2010 12:31 PM | Report abuse

I always dance, regardless...

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 17, 2010 12:34 PM | Report abuse

@ThinkSpring

And what was Catoe's plan for Metro??? "Service cuts, service cuts"...glad he's retiring though Duncan or whoever else they get to serve as Metro GM will probably be just as bad.

As for businesses certain dance events are losing my money because of this Route #25 reliability issue on weekday evenings on Carlin Springs Road. It's rather interesting that Mr. Catoe is getting what he wanted by way of the snowstorms--and now is whining about Metro losing money--seems some folks just want to terminate public transit for more cars, while, at the same time, the world's biggest carmaker [Toyota] is now running into a host of quality-assurance issues. Anyway, wish they'd clear the snowbanks out of the designated crosswalks--they seem to do just fine in Wisconsin within 36 hours of a big snow event.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 17, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

snow i'm-fed-up-with-it-ers,
if you HAD to choose, would you rather have 4 one-inch storms or one 4-inch storm?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

@mhardy1, Maybe it's what you thought, but it's not what you posted.

Here's what you posted: "I would like one of the snow fetishists (we are well beyond "snow lovers" at this point) to explain the self-centeredness."

I understand the distinction between snow lovers and those rooting on more heavy snow very well, so don't be so darn condescending. You simply failed to make that distinction clear. While you go on in the post to rail against the 'giddy' ones, it seemed to be an additional issue to the generalization you made within your opening. Your opening sentence equates all snow lovers with people who have a fetish, ie. deviants.

Had you written more clearly, I doubt I would have had issue with it. I cannot know what you intended to communicate, only what was written. It was a very inflammatory post.

Posted by: dprats21 | February 17, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

@mhardy1 You said "And I hope they melt to the ground on Monday!

Although, with my front gutter currently choked by solid ice, rain that's not warm enough to melt it fast might not be so good."

Now you say "didn't say anything about a quick melting"

I am sorry I misread your post. I thought you posted that you wanted it to melt fast, as in by Monday. That would lead to horrible flooding, an issue I hope you understand would bring substantial problems to this area.

Posted by: soleil2000 | February 17, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

@dprats21: I clearly made a distinction between snow lovers and snow fetishists. "We're well beyond 'snow lovers' at this point," means that continued hope for snow at this point is a sign of someone who is much more than a snow-lover. I count myself as a snow-lover. I like a few six-inch snowfalls every winter. But the point where I go from loving it to hating the thought of more of it was crossed about 20 inches ago.

I made that distinction because in earlier threads people were insinuating that those of us who want to stop at four feet and not go on to six are "snow haters." And that's neither true nor fair.

@ftwash: I have water dripping in my living room window that I can't stop until the ice dam in the gutter goes away. I've had to spend about $1,000 on car repairs that were a direct result of icy roads.

Those who are hoping for more snow and cold are effectively telling me they don't care that I'm suffering -- or the thousands of other people in a similar situation -- so long as they get more pretty snow.

If that's not self-centered, what would you call it?

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 12:52 PM | Report abuse

@soleil2000: Oh, I see. Yeah, that was a joke. I was hoping for rain, not snow, on Monday. That was directly about Walter's snow sculptures and was exaggerated for effect.

Of course I don't really hope the melt is that fast. But I do hope that Walter's next chance to practice his (considerable and impressive) art is not before December.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

"Ok, here we go again with folks saying the March 1993 storm indicates we can have heavy snow in March. We can, but do you remember what that storm was called? The "Storm of the Century," because it was a very rare confluence of systems. Large storms like that are very rare..."

That's why we need everyone to do some 'hoping'. It takes a lot of hope to pull a storm like that out of hiding.

Well, this week blows. Glad I'm heading out to snow country tomorrow. Be back Monday - hopefully not to a dreary February rain.

Posted by: OsnowO | February 17, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Walter,
You ARE dedicated..and appreciated for doing something creative and fun with the snow. Thanks for giving me something to look forward to..seeing your pics here or on tv.

re: lemonade colored snow...it's good to stay away from that .

Also, nice trying to change the subject ; )

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | February 17, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

I am sensing that the snow is stressing-out a few of you. And I am with you. It is hard to resume normalcy. And I am sorry to hear of the financial cost for snow-related repairs and severe disruption to daily routines. oof.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 17, 2010 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Is everyone forgetting that it snowed last March? And that was after two years of almost no snow. Not only can it snow in March, but it's rare for it not to. Since 2005, there have been three Marches with at least an inch of snow (2005, 2007, and 2009). 2006 also saw March usher in Spring with flurries.

I think the more proper question for this March is not whether or not we'll get snow, but how much.

Posted by: nlcaldwell | February 17, 2010 1:06 PM | Report abuse

thanks for all the kind words about the sculptures. it is my hope that i can keep making them until april!

but, i can assure you that my hopes about the weather DO NO work - or this year would have been a much more typical winter.....

...because we'd have had (safe, no-hardship-imposing) blizzards every year...!)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch: If you're not totally ticked at me for not joining you on the bandwagon, I wouldn't mind being able to tap your architectural (and structural engineering) expertise sometime. I have a 1955 frame house that I want to make some improvements to over the next couple of years, but I do not have the expertise to know for sure how to plan.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

mhardy -

Implicit in your posts are the idea that somehow by hoping for snow, snow lovers can somehow cause it. That's not the case. The weather will happen whether we love it or hate it.

I know people who just love hurricanes. It doesn't mean they want destruction nor does it mean they cause hurricanes by liking them. The "love" is primarily a mixture of science and awe at the event itself or in the case of snow the visual image it presents. Storm chasers love severe storms and hope for them and are disappointed when they don't occur.

Incessant posts about how it is selfish to "hope" for certain weather are frankly inane at best. What it really boils down to is the fact that people who let weather make them miserable can't STAND the fact that others are happy about it and go on with their lives happily. Misery loves company and when it doesn't find it anger results.

For the record - this was too much snow even for me. I don't need more but id be lying if I said I wouldn't like one more storm. Maybe 3-6" but preferably AFTER this current mess mostly melts. Nonetheless, I don't control the weather so whatever happens I will try to enjoy. Life is too short to sit around miserable because of weather. Too bad most people don't get that.

Posted by: jahutch | February 17, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

@jahutch: I'd just like a little expression of sympathy for those of us who are not having as much fun. Obviously, that's too much to ask.

I'm one of those people who likes hurricanes. I grew up on the Gulf Coast and have been through several of them. But after one comes through and leaves its destruction, I don't go onto message boards expressing my eager hope for another one to come soon.

OK, I made my point. Those who were already in agreement agree, those who were not, still are not. I will let it go.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Oh, and for the record, 3-6 inches after what's here melts would be fine with me. I don't want 10-14 inches on top of what's here.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Edit: Forget that I said, "Had you written more clearly, I doubt I would have had issue with it."

I still would have issue with anyone making generalizations about another's character based on their wanting more snow... including the 'giddy' ones... unless the person is expressing a desire for people to be hurt.

Weather happens.

Posted by: dprats21 | February 17, 2010 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Snow flurries in Manassas

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 17, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

mhardy1,
no hard feelings at all. i enjoy the "diversity of opinion" and i understand that MOST people DON'T like all this snow.... (a much higher percentage of people here do like it that "out there" in the real world.)

re your house:
with any project(s) like it sounds like you might be considering, i always suggest developing a "master plan" - everything you want the house to have say 10-20 yrs from now. you want to make sure nothing you do now precludes anything you want in the master plan. you want the finished product to be well-coordinated and look like a unified whole instead of a house with three additions on it....

then you can work towards this master plan in phases as it makes sense and as it becomes financially possible.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Snow love/hate flurries in DC.

Posted by: Groff | February 17, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

to those complaining about the dangerous winter, and expressing concern for your and others' property and safty and so forth, looks like you should be much more worried about the impending dangerous summer weather....

http://www.weather.gov/os/hazstats.shtml

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 17, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

@ pitchtorobert

Yes, significant snowfall beyond mid-March is possible in the DC metro area...it's already happened and has been recorded in our history. And, thank you for reminding us that people can die during weather related activity.

@rwalker66

Anything is possible with weather man...and yes...it's not LIKELY that JOe is correct but that doesn't mean it's impossible. Also, thanks for making it "simple" for me to understand, since I'm such a simpleton.

Posted by: parksndc | February 17, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

mhardy -

Don't think I'm not sympathetic to what you've gone through - I am! And I'm sure that goes for other snow loving folks here. But another thing to remember - many of us come to weather sites like this to talk weather, to indulge our obsessions :).

I can't speak for others here, but I can say for me, none of my friends in "real life" are particularly into snow or weather at all. "Checking the weather" means glancing at the weather widget on their desktops. So "weather love" gets mostly suppressed in day to day life. We come to places like CWG to let it out. So forgive us if we are a bit over enthusiastic in places like this!

Posted by: jahutch | February 17, 2010 6:36 PM | Report abuse

for mhardy. Hell, I don't know why. I've had thousands of dollars of property damage from the snow plus significant personal incvoneience, and I spent part of one day driving around getting food donations to people who couldn't get out on their own, so I do understand the downside. At least in part. But tell me we're going to get 6-10 inches of snow tomorrow and I'll still get excited. Maybe I need some serious couch time, but for sure I don't wish anybody any harm.

Posted by: doubtingdavid | February 17, 2010 6:40 PM | Report abuse

rginsburg;

No apologizes necessary. I enjoy looking at the GFS long range guidance and was surprised when it changed to what looked like a snow event to a rain one next week but I do not take the GFS too seriously this far out. For example 6z GFS run indicates a quick moving mixed event next Monday ending with rain where the European Medium Range looks to be more on the snow side. As far as Joe B goes, many feel he forecasting style is just why over the top. However, that 850MB cold air mass he refers to does look rather ominous AND he was right in Jan about Feb (He seems happy to let you know that). In any event, all we can do it sit back, watch, wait, and keep trying to interpret forecasts. Maybe that is the fun part.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 17, 2010 6:41 PM | Report abuse

Does this have to be an "either/or" thing with liking snow or any bad weather?

I had chunks of drywall taken out of my front bedroom and over my front door, and had ServPro's machines in here for 3 days drying me out. They found an icicle behind the drywall, coming in from the dang dormer - freaky. No wonder I had arctic-cold water coming through the baseboard that I couldn't seem to stop. To say I felt completely defeated as a homeowner by this little ice dam experience is an understatement. So I am very sympathetic on the serious problems this storm caused, and I'm sure mine are minor compared to other folks.

But, I'll be back here, reading all the threads about the next storm, whether it's next week, or when the tropics get cranking again. I think these massive snow storms are the ultimate experience for living in DC, but I'm a sucker for a green'ish yellow summer sky at 5pm with lightning and thunder ripping it up and the tornado warnings get posted. I'll run back and forth like a maniac between watching the sky and watching the radar (until it's time to head to the bunker, of course). And when the thunderstorms stay north of Centreville, as they always seem to do, I will be seriously bummed.

But I have to say, making calls to contractors for these repair estimates is about the biggest hassle. Sure hope it really WAS a once-in-a-lifetime problem with the ice dam, but I guess I'll find out with next week's precip, one way or the other.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 17, 2010 7:23 PM | Report abuse

Bobosnow, thanks for the update. I was wondering how you were faring. The entire front gutter on my house (facing north) is covered with two inches of ice right now, but so far the only water intrusion is a drip in my living room window that I'm mitigating by keeping towels under it. If it doesn't get worse, I'll count myself lucky.

I've had snow on my roof many times and never had an ice dam before, and I have to think it's because there was so much snow and not much warm-up this time.

Posted by: mhardy1 | February 17, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

@Bombo-- I was in your area on Monday, traveling from Carlin Springs Rd/Rt 7 to 611 Carlin Springs Rd Medical Bldg. I can tell you Carlin Springs and Columbia Pike intersection (coming from Rt 7) is clear to pavement, but VERY narrowed in lanes from snow. Where you normally have 3 lanes (left, right, straight) you have maybe 1 1/2 lanes. Also Carlin Springs from Columbia Pike to my Dr appt is narrowed by snow. Where it's cleared, it's to pavement - but VERY narrow. That could be part of your bus problems.

A few days of sunshine will help the obnoxiously high snow mounds at that intersection, as well as the Mt. Everest like mound at the medical bldg where my Dr is.

Best of luck in getting to your dances!

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 17, 2010 9:53 PM | Report abuse

A work colleague told us that a friend of his at VDOT says that "the worst storm of the season" - 40 inches of snow! - is coming Sunday through Tuesday. He said VDOT is already gearing up for it.

Nothing in the published forecasts indicate this! What is up?? Anyone know?

Posted by: SurlyGirly | February 18, 2010 8:28 AM | Report abuse

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