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Posted at 8:30 PM ET, 02/10/2010

It won't stop: Snow, wind still pounding region

By Jason Samenow

* Federal government closed Thursday: Federal Eye *
* Snowiest winter ever | Today's Q&A | NWS: Stay off the roads *
* Blizzard Warning until 10 p.m. area-wide (map) | NWS snow totals *
* Power outage maps for Dominion Electric | Pepco | BG&E | SMECO *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There *


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today's history-making storm will not relent, and continues to produce snow and high winds across parts of the the metro area. Its pressure has now dropped to the levels of a category 2 hurricane (below 980 mb) as it continues to spin off the New Jersey coast.

The snow, which had temporarily let up in some regions (especially the District, Loudoun and Fairfax counties), is picking up again as the moisture-laden storm throws back feeder bands southward (in a counter-clockwise motion). These bands may continue to produce intermittent snow, especially from Loudoun County and to the east and north. If you've shoveled your sidewalk, you'll likely find a fresh coating to an inch in many areas. When will it end? Most likely between 10 p.m. and midnight. See Ian's post from earlier for the outlook into tomorrow...

Some incredible snow totals have come in, especially northeast of town. As of 7 p.m., BWI had accumulated 19.5" with 10.5" at Reagan National and 9.3" at Dulles.

How much snow has fallen where you live? Report your totals using our snow mapping system (view map) ... Note, only include snow that has fallen since noon yesterday.

Monday snow?: There has been a lot of chatter about the possibility of Monday snow. Our own Steve Tracton was asked about this today in an online chat today, and he smartly replied: "It's much too early to call. We'll be sure to stay on top of developments, but there is no objective basis for calling the shots at this time." Having said that, the National Weather Service did issue the graphic below today. Don't kill the messenger (and we don't necessarily believe it)...

hazard-assmnt.gif
Graphic from National Weather Service

By Jason Samenow  | February 10, 2010; 8:30 PM ET
Categories:  Updates  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Storm to depart, takes century-old record along
Next: It's over, really

Comments

I think it's still snowing in Fort Myer, even with the wind.

Wow.

Just, wow.

Posted by: Juan-John | February 10, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

I just finished shoveling my car and parking space in Downtown Silver Spring. I've got to tell you guys that the wind is now becoming an issue. The gusts are pretty bad in my area.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 10, 2010 8:37 PM | Report abuse

I'm leaving the shoveling to the morning . . . maybe it will blow into my neighbor's yard this way ;)

Posted by: ah___ | February 10, 2010 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Since it was near the end of the last thread, I repeat it here

I mentioned in today's chat that it is notoriously difficult to predict the details of rapidly intensifying storms ("bombs"). The bust on the recurrent wrap around bands is another example of that truism. Even today's most advanced state-of-the-art operational weather models cannot fully resolve the complexities of the relevant atmospheric processes. Yes, the models can "simulate" banding, but that's not the same as accurately predicting the where and when.

Andrew, The single most impressive case of recurring bands and snow I've experienced was February 1969 in the Boston area. Unlike the present case, this continued for several days as the low remained virtually stationary off the coast. Each of several rounds of bands would normally be considered a significant snowstorm in and of themselves. I recall walking from my dorm to class in Cambridge between huge drifts well over my head.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

Wind gusts died down at about 4pm in Old Town but have started back up for the past few hours. Just make it stop, please?

(Looking for anything to sacrifice to the gods.)

Posted by: heatherfeather1 | February 10, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

We were robbed of snow here in the City of Manassas when compared to other areas. However, the wind is whipping around pretty nicely tonight.

Posted by: irish031 | February 10, 2010 8:44 PM | Report abuse

You know, this weather event reminds me of that episode on the Twilight Zone, where a woman dreamed she was in the middle of global warming, everyone was dying of thirst, the sun's heat was melting everything, and she wakes up from this nightmare just as she and everyone else was dying from the heat of the sun....to find out that she was sick with a fever, and being attended to...and everyone was leaving town, because a glacial ice age had set in....nothing but snow and blizzard conditions outside- it was only a matter of time before the planet would be iced over....the doctor said he had to leave with his family to try and make it as far south as he could while there was still time....Twilight Zone episodes were always quite prophetic and before their time.

Posted by: arrabbiato | February 10, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

I grew up in the suburbs west of Philadelphia. Anyone know what the 2-storm snow total is there? And counting, I guess!

Posted by: Groff | February 10, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Guys: Water temperature of the ocean have anything to do with the incredible blow up of this storm?

Posted by: drc231 | February 10, 2010 8:46 PM | Report abuse

From FrederickNewsPost.com:

"Dozens of motorists are stranded on impassable, snow-choked roads in Frederick County, and rescuers are having difficulty reaching them, according to Maryland State Police.

No tow companies in Frederick County are operating and MSP and National Guard resources are maximized, police reported shortly after 7 p.m.

U.S. 340 is not passable and numerous tractor trailers and other vehicles are stuck, according to police. Likewise, U.S. 15 from Thurmont to Emmitsburg is impassable due to severe winds and snow drifts.

A tractor trailer jackknifed in that area, and approximately 30 motorists are stranded. Police said they do not have the resources to transport these people off the highway.

U.S. 15 in the area of Frederick is blocked and impassable. Roughly 20 vehicles are disabled/stranded in the area north of the Frederick City.

Police said emergency vehicles are having a tough time, even with Humvees and four-wheel drives, traveling in these conditions."

Posted by: LLLrrr555 | February 10, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

Just a minor suggestion... if you're going to round the snow totals reported, then I don't think you should display zero tenths in the graphic...

Posted by: spgass1 | February 10, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

IIRC, in that Twilight Zone episode, the heat was not caused by a man-made global warming, but by the Earth's orbit deteriorating and moving closer to the sun. But yes, that episode sticks with me, too.

Posted by: caterpillargirl | February 10, 2010 8:50 PM | Report abuse

The good news is that it looks like not many people lost power in this storm. I guess all the loose branches and over-hanging limbs were cleared out by Snowmageddon.

Posted by: nlcaldwell | February 10, 2010 8:50 PM | Report abuse

@ LLLrrr555: Natural Deselection at work.

Posted by: ChickenLady | February 10, 2010 8:52 PM | Report abuse

reference my previous questions about water temperature. Not sure what it means as a layman, but the warm water isn't that far from the coast. Comments from the professionals? Bombogensis is a big word for us little people.

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/AN/451.html

Posted by: drc231 | February 10, 2010 8:54 PM | Report abuse

I like the Twilight zone episode about the pig faced people. The beauty in the eye of the beholder thing. You can see it on youtube if you don't know what I'm talking about. (Doesn't have anything to do with the weather, but it will get your mind off your dripping roof!)

Posted by: celestun100 | February 10, 2010 8:54 PM | Report abuse

We have icicles that are very thin at the top and thick at the bottom. Anyone have an idea why that would be?

Posted by: elizestrada | February 10, 2010 8:57 PM | Report abuse

I just mentioned to my family that they would have a day off on President's Day and they all groaned.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 10, 2010 8:57 PM | Report abuse

I'll be curious what the totals look like in the Colesville-Cloverly area from this. If BWI has 19.5 and DCA has 10.5 I'd assume we'd be in the middle of that amount, but it is about impossible to measure with all this wind and I haven't been dedicated enough to get out in the storm and really figure it out. Plus, all my doors are drifted shut at this poin - and still the snow falls. Wow!

Posted by: MDDem2 | February 10, 2010 8:58 PM | Report abuse

@caterpillargirl: Yes, that's right, I'd forgotten the circumstances..the earth had moved out of orbit...a form of global warming, as it were. What does "IIRC" mean?

Posted by: arrabbiato | February 10, 2010 8:58 PM | Report abuse

I don't mean to be rude, but the DC Webcam shows an image from August 2008.

Posted by: mensan98th | February 10, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

Hey, People! How's that global warming working out for you? By the way, has anyone seen Al Gore lately?

Posted by: a-benz | February 10, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

Still snowin' and blowin' in McLean.

Tom The Butcher was ready for the storm:
http://blogs.herald.com/dave_barrys_blog/2010/02/to-the-folks-dealing-with-the-blizzard.html#comments

Posted by: wiredog | February 10, 2010 9:00 PM | Report abuse

My DC snow removal plan: truck it all to Rock Creek Park and build a glacier to cool the city in the summer.

Posted by: shrakzam | February 10, 2010 9:00 PM | Report abuse

where is the snowcam!

aka the camera filming the ruler stuck in the ground

Posted by: samdman95 | February 10, 2010 9:01 PM | Report abuse

@arrabbiato
IIRC=If I Recall Correctly.
AFAIK=As Far As I Know.

http://www.gaarde.org/acronyms/

Posted by: wiredog | February 10, 2010 9:03 PM | Report abuse

Actually, shrack, I believe last summer was one of the coolest DC summers on record-I don't believe it reached triple digits all summer, or if it did, only for one or two days-it was DEFINITELY cool.

Posted by: arrabbiato | February 10, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Sorry -

IIRC = if I recall correctly

Posted by: caterpillargirl | February 10, 2010 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Oh alright, wiredog, thanks for that! I was trying to figure it out!

Posted by: arrabbiato | February 10, 2010 9:06 PM | Report abuse

Wow, I live in Gaithersburg and we are getting SOCKED again with what looks like the last heavy band of snow.

It's 20 degrees, windy as all heck, and the snow is coming down hard with HUGE flakes. Never seen such huge flakes when the temps have been this cold.

After this band though, I think this is it...of course I thought that 6 hours ago at 3pm, after which time the bands starting coming from the north. Bizarre. Incredible. Glad I was here to experience/see this for myself or else I would never believe it.

Posted by: hskwak | February 10, 2010 9:08 PM | Report abuse

IvantheTerrible said February 9, 2010 4:05 PM:

"Bring on the 3 inches of snow."


Posted by: gjjg4dgd | February 10, 2010 9:08 PM | Report abuse

drc231

It's not so much the warm water per se, but how rapidly the water temperatures increase from the coast toward the Gulf Stream, referred to as the temperature gradient. This creates a low level frontal zone which is a prime energy source for an intensifying storm.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 9:15 PM | Report abuse

I don't want to nag, but the 18Z output continued the progression from 12Z and shows a direct hit on Monday, with plenty of cold air and the happy totals are rising.

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 10, 2010 9:16 PM | Report abuse

@elizestrada - where are those icicles, exactly? On the house? A wire? Tree?

Posted by: alc_in_NoVa | February 10, 2010 9:18 PM | Report abuse

@celestun100

I remember when the "pig faced people" episode was first shown. Yes, the twilight zone always made me think. Thanks for the memory.

Posted by: djm-01 | February 10, 2010 9:19 PM | Report abuse

I am so agreeing with irish031..

"We were robbed of snow here in the City of Manassas when compared to other areas."

I still don't quite get why we have the lowest totals of any of the metro area. Even the far southern end of Prince William County doubles what we got. Was this a dry slot? Why only for us?

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 10, 2010 9:21 PM | Report abuse

CWG - Just FYI, when I typed in "NWS Washington" into GOOGLE, the CWG blog was first! You apparently are the official weather source for Washington, DC. Nice SEO guys :)

Posted by: genestad | February 10, 2010 9:23 PM | Report abuse

@pmichaels1 - ugh, there's plenty of fresh snow now. I think I might have the current stuff all shoveled by Monday.

No more, please. I like snow, but this is crazy.

Posted by: btamil | February 10, 2010 9:23 PM | Report abuse

a-benz,

Actually, the kind of weather we've been having is what I would expect from mild global warming.

Global Warming would make the continental air mass warmer than usual, but likely still below freezing a month after the winter solstice. (Allowing for temperature inertia, normally the coldest time of the year.) Being warmer, it could hold more water vapor.

The oceans would also be slightly warmer (especially the Gulf Stream), warming the air above them, and increasing evaporation into the air.

Add an offshore cyclonic low that pulls air from the continent on its southwestern side (pulling in more cold air from the nort in the process), warms it, saturates it with water vapor, and throws it back over the continental mass on its northwestern side. Air saturated with water vapor hits the colder (below freezing) continental air and precipitates as snow.

The warmer everything is, the more moisture is moved over the continent. As long as the continental air mass stays below freezing, more moisture means more and wetter snow.

And if the jet stream and prevailing winds bring in even more moisture from tropical oceans (the Gulf of Mexico and/or the eastern Pacific), as has happened this year, you get even more frozen precipitation when that moisture hits the cold continental air.

Posted by: rlguenther | February 10, 2010 9:27 PM | Report abuse

@missy,

I looked at the radar off and on today, and it appeared to show snow over the City. Odd to say the least. Maybe we'll make up for it on Monday. Doh!

Posted by: irish031 | February 10, 2010 9:28 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | February 10, 2010 9:29 PM | Report abuse

@pmichaels1 -- pulleeeeez say it isn't so. at this rate, we'll never get back to normal around here. what's the storm output?

Posted by: paige_va | February 10, 2010 9:29 PM | Report abuse

I just keep seeing snow swirl in the light against my front window. No idea if it is new snow or old snow...just know the wind is CRAZY outside.

And Monday better be a bust. Or I might put a hit out on Mother Nature....


Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | February 10, 2010 9:32 PM | Report abuse

@alc_in_NoVa

Icicles are hanging off our gutters in front of our bow window.

Posted by: elizestrada | February 10, 2010 9:36 PM | Report abuse

With blocking in Greenland remaining quite nice for the area it's sure hard to ignore an upper low like this. I was skeptical of this storm (and the next is kinda/sorta similar) since in 9 out of 10 years they hit New England but I'm tempted to go with the flow.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 9:38 PM | Report abuse

I'm in Maine and we haven't had any fresh snow for weeks. Can't you folks share some? We'd like to go cross country skiing? :}

Posted by: mainer2 | February 10, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Check this out:

This storm is now grabbing Pacific moisture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 10, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Kim, I'm seeing the swirling too. This is definitely the storm that never ends....

Posted by: LLLrrr555 | February 10, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

@elizestrada - it is possible that the air near the top of the icicle is warmer than that near the bottom - there could be some warm air coming from the house, causing snow to melt and start to drip down the icicle (and keeping the top of the icicle fairly thin), but by the time it gets to the bottom of the icicle, the air is cooler, and it freezes before the water actually drips off.

Total guess on my part - anyone else have any theories?

Posted by: alc_in_NoVa | February 10, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

so many icicles....everywhere. one is 3-4 feet long! 20 feet up!
makes me glad that I had the whole house re-roofed last summer when we put the addition on.
They put some super duper ice shield up to protect from damming and flashed the heck out of everything. knock-on-wood I've not seen any leaks anywhere...so far.
But the icicles are literally at a size that they are dangerous.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 10, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

Looking at the snow we have, and then the radar loops, I feel very humbled. It's scary how close we are to Mother Nature's wrath or whatever you might want to call it. Everything in moderation?!

Posted by: krosseel | February 10, 2010 9:42 PM | Report abuse

CWG important honest question...

Would you say baised on your opinion, public weather services feel they need to error on the side of the extreme or let's say worse case scenario where as private weather services like yourself are more free to base your predictions on your gut feeling through sound research?

Not saying you guys do research and they just always go with "the sky might fall"

but I do wonder, might it be in their best interest to try and always get people to prepare for the worse, or shall I say their superiors telling them to always lean on the side of caution in order to make sure the public is prepared for the worse??

Posted by: SkinsForever22044 | February 10, 2010 9:42 PM | Report abuse

Ian and Pat--I'd be a fool if I ruled out the possibility, but I do think it's premature to be sounding the "heavy snow" alarm.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 9:43 PM | Report abuse

@mainer2 - well, since the snow shovel I bought yesterday was actually shipped down from New Hampshire, the very least we could do is send some snow back... now we just gotta find some trucks!!!

Posted by: alc_in_NoVa | February 10, 2010 9:43 PM | Report abuse

Two big President Day weekend snows occured in 1979 (which until the past few days was the alpha and omega of snows since I've lived here) and 2003. Not looking for another megastorm on top of the last two, but a few inches to put us over 60" for the season at DCA would be nice.

A snow record still up for grabs is the all-time monthly snowfall record of 34+ inches in Feb. 1899.

Thanks, CWG, for a great day of storm posts and comments and for your efforts to keep this as one of the few relatively civilized places on the internet. For people who want to mix it up, Dealbreaker (http://dealbreaker.com/) is open for business. (Note: not for the faint of heart!)

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 10, 2010 9:45 PM | Report abuse

@SkinsForever22044

I don't think public forecasters are under pressure to overhype threats. I do think the NWS forecast office in Sterling has gotten more aggressive in forecasting snow totals in the last several storms, in an effort to correct for overly conservative calls early in the season.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 9:46 PM | Report abuse

Jerry-

are you "broker from VA"

:)

Posted by: notdlo1975 | February 10, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

300ft2- that Pacific moisture flow is insane.

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 10, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Steve: Thank you very much. I think I get it -

Posted by: drc231 | February 10, 2010 9:48 PM | Report abuse

I had to clear ice cycles hanging from the top of my house in a few places. The most important reason was that I didn't want them falling from above my garage and onto my car or off the edge of my porch roof onto people. The secondary reason is that I figured any weight I could easily take off of my roof/gutters was a good thing. Particularly since some of those things were two feet long.

Posted by: typical_guy | February 10, 2010 9:48 PM | Report abuse

@300_sq_ft, thanks for posting that radar loop showing the east coast snow dragon being fed by Pacific moisture. Absolutely amazing; something I think we may only see during 'cane season?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 10, 2010 9:49 PM | Report abuse

Egads, is that band finally starting to fall apart?

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 9:49 PM | Report abuse

@ 300_sq_ft: that is wild! No wonder it's still snowing here.

As far as the upcoming storm on Monday...it always snows here on President's Day, it's a tradition. ;)

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 10, 2010 9:50 PM | Report abuse

SteveT: I was in that Feb 6-7 1978 storm in Cambridge, and it was amazing. Although there's much less snow in DC for this one, it's an impressive reminder of that Boston blizzard. And to the poster about IAD's snow totals, I have no trouble believing that email. 32 inches just doesn't make sense. A friend of mine who I trust who lives near IAD got 22, which he said could have been 24 because he measured it among trees, but he said no more than 24.

I'm figuring I've got 12+ in Glover Park but it's become hard to tell. AU, a couple miles away, is reporting 14.

Posted by: doubtingdavid | February 10, 2010 9:53 PM | Report abuse

@notdlo1975, nah, I read Dealbreaker for the laughs (some of those Wall St. guys are incredibly clever) and because I am a great admirer of Bess Levin. She is an amazing writer, even if she abuses that Ashley pic. ; ))

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 10, 2010 9:56 PM | Report abuse

Fortunately no leaks discovered yet, but like others I have some big icicles. Roof has a pretty steep pitch which should help. I was thinking about breaking them off, but am concerned that could possibly damage/bring down the gutters...

That Frederick article text posted by LLLrrr555 shows what a major event this is. The storm was also the lead story on the national NBC Nightly News.

That was also an interesting link from DaveInMadison... does that mean Dulles may not have six feet for the season?

Posted by: spgass1 | February 10, 2010 9:57 PM | Report abuse

Yeah fleece - can't remember seeing that in a while.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 10, 2010 10:00 PM | Report abuse

So what are the totals for those up north? Dale City was done about 1:30PM and hav not seen anything but wind since...

Posted by: hysteria_625 | February 10, 2010 10:00 PM | Report abuse

@Doubtingdavid, agree re: the IAD 32" total. Very suspect. Re: Glover Park snow totals, the snow is blowing around so much that it's now impossible to tell. 12" is close; could be a bit more, quien sabe? I was down at the bottom of 41st St this afternoon and could see bare pavement, because the snow had blown away. The mountains of plowed snow in back of 4000 Tunlaw Rd. were mind boggling.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 10, 2010 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Was dry from around 4-7pm in Clarendon, but it's picked up, and has been going steady ever since....probably another 2" or so of fresh snow since 7pm. Will this EVER end?

Posted by: ironmanjt | February 10, 2010 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Snow aside (one shovelfull at a time...), what are the seas like off the east coast due to this powerful "bomb" of a low-pressure system?

Posted by: h0db | February 10, 2010 10:03 PM | Report abuse

When will we know more about the Monday threat? Also are there any thoughts on its timing. I am due to fly out for Cincinnati on Friday and am supposed to return Monday night (arriving at around 9pm). I really can't afford to get stuck in Cincinnati and miss work though, so I'll have to make a decision on whether or not to cancel my trip by Friday.

I love snow but right now I am so over it - this ridiculous 2 weeks won't permanently push me into snow hater territory, but I certainly am starting to understand why some people do.

Posted by: jahutch | February 10, 2010 10:05 PM | Report abuse

ironmanjt - yes, the snow will end tonight :-)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 10:09 PM | Report abuse

Please, I know its too early to be definitive about Monday, but this hinting is annoying. What do you predict at this point?

Posted by: motc | February 10, 2010 10:11 PM | Report abuse

a lot of people around here like walking/biking the C&O canal path. Unfortunately a fast melt in the mountains due to some warm weather and perhaps rain at some point will cause a major potomac river flood. Think 1996? There are already a few sections of path that are not in working order due to lack of money. This may wipe out even more of it.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 10, 2010 10:14 PM | Report abuse

OK, I'm a snow lover, but the fun and games are over now. You hear me Mother Nature? The flight for my honeymoon leaves at 3PM on Monday, and I want nothin' but blue sky and light winds. Do you hear me???!!!! :-)

Posted by: matthew_lawlor | February 10, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

Non-weather related, but I have to share my joy that the Caps just scored with 18 seconds left to tie the score with the Canadiens, 5-5. One thing I will say about this storm: it has provided me with an opportunity to increase my hockey viewing.

Posted by: ultrapop101 | February 10, 2010 10:16 PM | Report abuse

300_sq_ft: thx for that water vapor loop, very cool.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 10:16 PM | Report abuse

@Jason- CWG
I think NWS has been dead on the last two storms. NWS predicted 10-20 inches in Montgomery, Howard, Fredrick, PG, and DC; for the most part they hit those numbers. In addition, (with the exception of Manassas), counties to the south of the district got 7-14 inches. Last storm they were also dead on with 20-30 inches. I think you guys were wrong with the 5-10 inches for the metro area. :) Here in Montgomery county we are over 15 inches.

Posted by: srodens | February 10, 2010 10:17 PM | Report abuse

Jason--

I agree. There's plenty of time to "sound the alarm". But the fact is that it is there. Maybe it will dissappear in the next run...we shall see.

If it keeps on coming for the next two or three runs, I'd bump things up a bit. GFS has been remarkably good this year at +5 days and that is where we are now. I'm also trying to figure how the grids have a higher chance of rain than snow with this. The thickness is way down and the 850mb zero pretty much stays in the Carolinas.

Enjoy seeing history?

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 10, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

@srodens, CWG's final map showed northern DC, Montgomery, Howard, northern PG all in the 8-16 inch zone.

Posted by: Murre | February 10, 2010 10:21 PM | Report abuse

Hey all - I'm supposed to travel from Arlington to Charlottesville tomorrow around 7:00am....any idea what the roads may look like at that time?

Posted by: meirish719 | February 10, 2010 10:22 PM | Report abuse

ultrapop: So if the Caps come back to win, does that mean the snow will continue? Because if that's the case, I just don't know what to root for.

Posted by: Melewen | February 10, 2010 10:22 PM | Report abuse

@pmichaels1 "Enjoy seeing history?"

Not any more!
:-)

Posted by: Murre | February 10, 2010 10:23 PM | Report abuse

Man that NWS map for Monday is SO UNCOOL.

Posted by: keithrjackson | February 10, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

@Murre--

Thanks for noting we had the higher band of 8-16 for the northern half of the metro region. We were probably a little low for the northern half, while the NWS was probably a little high for the southern half. NWS did change its accumulation forecast numerous times...we stuck with ours from the beginning. Our weather checker will post an independent post mortem critique early next week.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2010 10:28 PM | Report abuse

Caps lost in OT,;-(.

As to the NWS, I believe they are in a no win situation. They have to call them as they see it. What do they gain either by overestimating or underestimating? If they do either, people will just stop ignoring their reports, and that of course is not a good thing for any weather reporting service.

Posted by: irish031 | February 10, 2010 10:30 PM | Report abuse

@keithrjackson

how so? good or bad for snowlovers? I'm too much of a rookie to understand those maps

Posted by: notdlo1975 | February 10, 2010 10:34 PM | Report abuse

@notdlo,

The map shows heavy snow for our area.

Posted by: irish031 | February 10, 2010 10:37 PM | Report abuse

About to run the blower one more time.

Now, how many whiskies is it safe to have before sticking your hand into a running blower to clear a jam?

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 10, 2010 10:37 PM | Report abuse

Any predictions for Monday? I call for a bust.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 10, 2010 10:41 PM | Report abuse

@AndrewRockville, I know you were kidding about whiskey consumption while snowblowing (I hope!) -- but of course it's not advisable; over the past few days we've taken several 911 calls from some unfortunate folks who were injured while operating snowblowers. Don't know how much whiskey they may or may not have been drinking though!

Posted by: natsncats | February 10, 2010 10:42 PM | Report abuse

I see the Monday hype has begun. Isn't the GFS the only model supporting a storm at this point?

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 10, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

Snow has finally stopped here in upper NW DC with between 15-16 inches and strong winds. While this storm did not put down as high amounts as the storm last weekend, it has been a real classic blizzard with the strong winds, heavy snow and white out conditions. We have over three feet of snow on grounds with drifts 5-6 feet. They are calling for another moderate snowfall on monday night. A clipper is supposed to come down strengthen as it hits the coasts. I am confident Fed Gov will be closed Friday as well. When was the last time it has been closed a week due to weather. I don't think ever!

Posted by: ajmupitt | February 10, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

lol @IvantheTerrible you said this would only be 3 inches and would be a bust. LOOK OUTSIDE lol. i sort of understnd you logic though, if you say every storm will be a bust, you would often be correct for this area. however, this winter is special. we have not had a single bust! and every forecast has increased up to the event!

Posted by: samdman95 | February 10, 2010 10:50 PM | Report abuse

As to the Monday storm:

WBAL-TV (in Baltimore) is predicting a 1" to 3" accumulation (subject to revision) based on the current predictions of where the low will track. If the track moves a bit more north, it could be more. The best comment was that "It WON'T be as bad as the last two major storms in any event." (Personal note: even if it's 15" here in Baltimore City, that wouldn't be as bad as the last two major storms!).

Mike in Baltimore City (Zip: 21202)

Posted by: critter69 | February 10, 2010 10:54 PM | Report abuse

Hey CWG - you guys are the top of the page link on the Drudge Report. Bet you're gonna see some heavy traffic.

Posted by: bethesda-rat | February 10, 2010 10:59 PM | Report abuse

Is anyone else seeing their temp go up? my little weather station now has temp at 27, up from 24 a number of hours ago.

Sigh...front door slow drip still doing its thing...will be stuffing and surrounding with towels before heading to bed. Not sure what else can be done short-term.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 10, 2010 11:01 PM | Report abuse

@bobosnow : yeah I was gonna ask CWG about that. For my zip code 22033 (Fairfax) the temp has been rising the later it gets here. We're up to 30 degrees now at 11pm, the warmest it's been all day. Keep on going I say! Melt some of that snow!

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 10, 2010 11:03 PM | Report abuse

Here is a link to a picture of Bull Run in the summer. It won't be long....

http://markerhunter.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/ii-corps-8-aug-09-0061.jpg

Posted by: irish031 | February 10, 2010 11:06 PM | Report abuse

Wow...interesting reminder on Ch 4 about not pushing your engine too far if you get stuck in a batch of snow. They just showed a car on fire after the engine overheated from straining to get thru the snow.

Eeek.

I'm not even going to think about Monday yet. We still have four days to try and recover from the LAST four days.

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | February 10, 2010 11:08 PM | Report abuse

Temps are rising here too - it's 33 in Gainesville. However, the winds are still very brisk and gusting outside, so I'm sure it feels much colder than that.

Posted by: jaradel | February 10, 2010 11:10 PM | Report abuse

Currently 25 in Ashburn; it was 21 when I got in from work at around 7 PM.

Posted by: natsncats | February 10, 2010 11:12 PM | Report abuse

First - today was the most awesome weather day ever!

with regard to "we stuck with ours from the beginning"...

I think CWG has been late to the game each time under the premise that it's always too early to make a forecast - and even then you take a conservative approach on totals.

From Monday morning:

CWG Feb. 8th 5am "Most likely: 3-6" for immediate metro area, more north and east, less south and west."

I also wouldn't fault NWS for revising it's predictions.

CWG Feb 8th 11am: "Our best bet is 5-10" in the metro region"

If I recall correctly your accumulaiton map changed three times, and when questions arose about the "dry slot" there were quite a number of CWG comments indicating the NWS forecast of 10"-20" was overdone and that it was odd it was issued so early.

In my view all you can do is make a forecast on the information available - if it changes it changes. As we saw today, even nowcasting doesn't always work.

Posted by: manatt | February 10, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

FYI--There's a new goodnight post up.

Near the Fauquier/Warren county line, I'm still pretty cold at 21.4F

Posted by: spgass1 | February 10, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

For Monday...latest GFS/AVN run continues to show the potential for a snow event...probably more than an inch of accumulation...but ECMWF remains more optimistic...

Posted by: Ayrwulf | February 11, 2010 12:05 AM | Report abuse

I live in Florida, near Tampa. We had our own crisis tonight. I had to call my brother in Calvert County for advice. He is always there when I need him for such things. Great guy... I told him, "Frank, Sue and I have a problem." He says, "What's up?" He had that 'can I help' in his voice. I said "Frank, Sue and I have this problem tonight, we can't decide whether to sleep with the windows open or turn on the A/C." Good night D.C., think warm thoughts.

Posted by: Blueslegend | February 11, 2010 2:03 AM | Report abuse

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