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Posted at 3:45 PM ET, 02/ 4/2010

Snowmageddon: Snowstorm likely to be historic

By Ian Livingston

Crippling accumulations over 1 to 2 feet may be common

* Winter Storm Warning Friday morning through Saturday evening *
* 2 double-digit snows? | Q&A transcript | Winter driving tips *
* Follow the snowstorm on twitter: #snOMG | E-mail forecast to a friend *
* News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There *

It is hard to believe that we're about to see another storm like we saw in December -- usually a once in several year occurrence. But it's real and it's becoming increasingly likely that a historic event is in the cards. If you have any doubts, check out this afternoon's satellite shot showing amazing moisture feeds into what is already a gigantic system. The time is now to make final preparations as we are less than 24 hours out from the start.

ACCUMULATION MAP AND TIMELINE

9 AM to 1 PM FRIDAY
Snow develops SW to NE. Possible mix with rain/sleet. Temps 33-37.
1 PM to 7 PM FRIDAY
Snow, becoming heavy late. Some mix S&E. Temps 30-34.
7 PM to 1 AM SATURDAY
Snow, possibly heavy. Some mix S&E. Temps 28-32.
1 AM to 7 AM SATURDAY
Snow, becoming breezy. Temps 26-30.
7 AM to 1 PM SATURDAY
Snow, decreasing some in coverage/intensity. Breezy. Temps 27-31.
1 PM to 7 PM SATURDAY
Snow tapering to flurries. Breezy. Temps 27-31.

Forecast Confidence: High

IMPACT FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Through tonight: The calm before the monster storm continues as skies trend cloudier. Lows in the mid-to-upper 20s.

Tomorrow (Friday): We won't warm much with clouds and precipitation inbound. Look for highs in the mid 30s, falling back to and below freezing as snow gets underway by the late morning or early afternoon. By evening, snow should be falling at a moderate pace with at least 3-5" of accumulation common across the area and rates increasing into the night.

Dangerous weather: This will be a high-impact storm any way you cut it. Heavy wet snow will create difficult digging out conditions and may lead to numerous power outages. To minimize the risk of injury during digging, it is best to clear snow often. Wind and near-blizzard (or even blizzard) conditions may occur overnight Friday and into Saturday, Blizzard Warnings are already up to our east and we did have them issued in December. Be prepared to be stuck where you are for at least 24-48 hours, if not longer as suggested through a message delivered by the state of Virginia. And if all else fails, check out this "Snopocalypse D.C." web site for further instructions.

Tell a friend about CWG: E-mail this forecast

What about the forecast detail for tomorrow night and beyond? Check it out here. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

By Ian Livingston  | February 4, 2010; 3:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts, Snowmageddon  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Vote for storm name, Twitter hashtag & snow total
Next: Will Snowmageddon make history?

Comments

I have my emergency supplies: a carton of smokes, 3 lb of coffee and I started taking Motrin for my shoulder today. I want all those little Motrinos doing their thing before I have to shovel.

Posted by: tbva | February 4, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

I am curious what the Feds do post-lunch

Posted by: Bious | February 4, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

WOOM WOOM WOOOM WOOOM WOOM

Posted by: shamuballeno | February 4, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

I just got the good news. They have cots here at work if I get stuck here on Saturday. I'm so releived. Ugh...

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

We . . . are . . . doomed.

OK, tentative schedule:

Do driveway and pipestem tomorrow before dark. Shovel/Toro electric blower should still be OK.

Sat AM/dawn's early light: Do it again.

Late morning/early afternoon: Do it again; borrow neighbor's big honkin' gas-powered blower.

Late afternoon: see last entry.

Yeah, that'll work. It'll suck, but it'll work.

Sigh.

Posted by: Gunga2009 | February 4, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

CWG: Y'all may wanna change the "message delivered by the state of Virginia" link, which goes to an already-updated "Get There" blog, to this:

http://www.vdem.state.va.us/newsroom/releases/2010/misc/jan_snow_storm/gov_declares_stateofemergency.cfm

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 4, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

At what point do the schools begin their cancellation announcements for tomorrow?

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 4, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

I think I am going to faint....

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 4, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Lake Ridge is definitely in the 16-26" zone, however I'm not liking the closeness of the 10-16" zone encompassing the southeastern tip of Prince William and a very small portion of southeastern Fairfax. Here's hoping the 10-16" zone be pushed a bit more southeast and actually doesn't nudge a bit northwest..

Posted by: ZmanVA | February 4, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

I like snow... but this is getting ridiculous!

Posted by: esmith22015 | February 4, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

All I ask is that everyone makes their decision before I go to bed

When I wake up, I wake up. I am not someone who falls right back to bed.

So, for me....please make your important, city-wide announcement early

Posted by: Bious | February 4, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

I think I'm going to be sick. Is there any chance at all we won't get that much or are we pretty much nailed in for those amounts?

Posted by: hereandnow1 | February 4, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Question:

Have we reached the level of certainty in the forecast/models where it will be considered a "historic bust" if these totals do not come to fruition"?

Posted by: 1vsM | February 4, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Why is the Fed Cast only at 2 capitols when they've already announced liberal leave for tomorrow?

Posted by: CortJstr | February 4, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Bring It On!

And for any of the curmudgeon's on ye olde posting board: I do dig out others' cars as well as the firehydrant and bus stop in front of our building.

Posted by: the_local | February 4, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

I'm heading to the Delaware beach for the weekend and am wondering whether I'll get snowed in, or just a few inches and some rain. Any thoughts? Your map shows that area only getting a few inches.

Posted by: sandinmyjoints | February 4, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

16 inches, at a minimum?

Can we call it Greg Sn-Oden?

Posted by: me_ahogo | February 4, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

I am in the 16-26 inch area. I may be nuts but I would love to see two feet of snow. It would be amazing.

Posted by: justin-N-sterlingVa | February 4, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

NWS upped accumulations for HIGHLAND-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
210 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 28 INCHES.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 4, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

OK CWG, for perspective, what is the all time record, at least in relatively modern times, for a single storm anywhere in the NE metro corridor?

Posted by: dhb2 | February 4, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Thanks to whomever suggested the Ace Hardware at the corner of 29 and 198 for snow shovels in the last thread... they still have a ton!

Posted by: megamuphen | February 4, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

I've got all the food/drink/TP supplies. What else should I do to get ready?

Posted by: bigwino24 | February 4, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Liberal leave is not closed, why is that so confusing to people? The offices are OPEN they are just saying if you can't or don't make it in you are authorized to ask for leave not already on the books.

That's a 2 capital thing. I'd guess early out/late in is 3 and completely closed is 4.

Posted by: kallieh | February 4, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

You're all forgetting the most important question: What is this going to do to Bombo's dance schedule?

Posted by: stuckman | February 4, 2010 4:12 PM | Report abuse

with the lack of snow in Vancouver maybe DC should have been chosen as the site of the winter games??....PS.love Snopocalypse D.C."...my Northern Indaina relatives are laughing themselves silly, but I tell them they don't have as many elevated highways...their snow blows straight down the turnpike into Ohio

Posted by: cjsunday | February 4, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

CWG...why do you think the NWS snow totals for Charlottesville/Albemarle County are so much higher than you guys...10 to 16 vs 20 to 28. That seems to be a huge discrepancy.

Posted by: crozet | February 4, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

HOLY (POOP)! MAN LANDS ON (GERUND) MOON!

Posted by: bs2004 | February 4, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Ugh, the one weekend in the past decade (other than my wedding) where I was rooting for less snow...bad luck.

Eh well, bring on Snowmageddon. My 12-week old puppy may need a snorkel.

Posted by: VamosUnited | February 4, 2010 4:17 PM | Report abuse

These accumulation numbers are incredible. As a NOVA native I cannot recall ever seeing anything like it. OMG

CWG gives an 80% change of AT LEAST a foot of snow. So, we're gonna get at least a foot of snow.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 4, 2010 4:17 PM | Report abuse

Please update the "FedCast" to 4 capital domes because OPM has already announced that the Federal Government WILL be on Unscheduled Leave tomorrow.

Posted by: drmammal | February 4, 2010 4:19 PM | Report abuse

I'm just stunned by the forecasted totals, does anyone remember what the they were calling for before the 2003 President's Day storm? I can't remember if the numbers were this high.

The fact that we are starting at 16-18 inches at a minimum makes me feel nauseous, and I'm a weather geek and love snow.

Posted by: ana_b | February 4, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Back in December, Kevin laid his criteria for the perfect storm.

1) Snow depths of 20" or more.
2) No changeover to sleet, ice, or rain.
3) No dry slots occurring during the storm.
4) Sub-freezing temperatures for the duration of the storm.
5) Cold weather following the storm.
6) A weekend storm.

Looks like this one will also qualify. Also, an additional thing with this one is that snow is already on the ground.

Posted by: jaybird926 | February 4, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

@drmammal

FedCast is only four domes if the government is shutdown. It's not. It's open for those who wish to report to work without taking annual leave.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Good on ya, CapWx folks. You ditched the "+" and "or more". Straight up 16-26 inches.

Posted by: johnnyd2 | February 4, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

cjsunday


I know your relatives think this if funny ( I have relatives in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota) but seriously, they don't usually get 2 feet of snow twice in one year do they? In Detroit 6-12 is considered a big storm.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 4, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Ah, went with Snowmageddon, huh. I was partial to snOMG. But, I am super grateful for this blog -- I managed to rebook my 4 pm flight tomorrow to 10 AM and, despite spending a million dollars on the change fee, I sure am glad I went ahead and took the plunge so I have a 99% chance of making it out. Now the question is: will I be able to land in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon???

Posted by: esmerelda123 | February 4, 2010 4:26 PM | Report abuse

Screw this, I'm moving to Florida. Born in DC. Grew up and live in MD, lived in NJ and fam is from CT. I've had enough of the Northeast and it's sh***y winters. I wanna see sunshine and palm trees Dec-Feb for once. No wonder everyone thinks Canada, Maine, Alaska, Michigan sucks.

Soon as I retire I'm heading to Miami Beach. Too bad that's about 30 years from now. Counting the days...

Posted by: TheMarylander | February 4, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Was everyone this sure about the Dec. 19th storm?
Are we just taking this one seriously because we now believe we can get snow (I'm referring to those snow/rain line storms that used to end up in rain for us.)

Posted by: celestun100 | February 4, 2010 4:29 PM | Report abuse

According to the legend, it should be 3 Domes: "Greater than 90% chance of unscheduled leave policy, delay, or early closing. 50% or less chance of shutdown."

You guys claimed on twitter the domes are only for chance of closure. If that's the case, you need to update the FAQ: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/01/frequent_questions.html#what_do_the_stormcast

Posted by: Vickser | February 4, 2010 4:31 PM | Report abuse

Michigan does NOT suck.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 4, 2010 4:31 PM | Report abuse

@crozet

NWS has higher totals west and southwest mainly due to higher elevation (colder temps). They may also be seeing the bullseye a little south of us whereas we're incorporating the possibility of a slight shift to the north in the track (given trends from past storms this season).

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

@esmerelda123

snoMG is the winner for Twitter hashtag. Snowmageddon is the winner for storm name.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 4:33 PM | Report abuse

Fairfax County and Manassas City Schools have announced closed for Friday.

Posted by: kb66 | February 4, 2010 4:33 PM | Report abuse

It doesn't affect me, private worker in baltimore, but your fedcast definition says 2 means a 50/50 unscheduled leave, 3 is 90% chance, so if it is already called for shouldn't the fedcast be at 3? Again, just curious. And I know you already explained why it's not at 4.

Posted by: craig19 | February 4, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

OK CWG, for perspective, what is the all time record, at least in relatively modern times, for a single storm anywhere in the NE metro corridor?

Posted by: dhb2 | February 4, 2010 4:03 PM

3 feet, 2 inches in the Balt-Wash Metro Area Feb. 6-7, 2010 AD

Posted by: CharlieIndiaAlpha | February 4, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

TheMarylander:

"Everyone" thinks no such thing. Speak for yourself.

Posted by: mason08 | February 4, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

My question is, when is someone going to do a movie-trailer type YouTube for the storm? I can just hear the announcer voice now...

"Last year, it dashed your holiday travel plans… fouled up your Christmas party… and gave you a snow day.
"Now… Snowpocalypse is back… and this time, it’s personal.
"Critics are calling it 'high-impact’ and ‘very likely to strike the Metro region.’ On February 5, get ready for the precipitation event of the year…
"SNOWPOCALYPSE II"

Posted by: LeeOnTheHill | February 4, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

@Vickser

You're right. FedCast should be three domes. We'll update.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Ugh. I'm getting sick of this. It wouldn't be so bad if our transportation system could deal with it.

Posted by: acoberst1 | February 4, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

@crozet - and oragraphic uplift.

Posted by: johnnyd2 | February 4, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Kinda nuts having this type of snow certainty 18 hours before a single flake hits the ground. Up until this winter, I'd been scarred over the years by numerous forecasts of big snowstorms that only ended up being dustings or freezing rain, or vice-versa.

Keep up the good work, CWG!

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 4, 2010 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Between @CharlieIndiaAlpha and @LeeOnTheHill this is becoming one funny thread.

Posted by: Vingold | February 4, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Expect the other school systems in NOVA, MD, and hopefully DC to follow suit with Fairfax and Manassas by either announcing closed for Friday or a scheduled early dismissal. No reason to have all those school buses and walkers out there tomorrow afternoon if it has been snowing about 6 hours by that point in time.

Posted by: kb66 | February 4, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

SNOWVECHKIN!!!!

Posted by: Langway4Eva | February 4, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Concerning the Fedcast update: so this makes it a Three Dome Night?

Posted by: BPupp | February 4, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Think CWG might consider changing the travelcast to 4 planes. US and United are cancelling just about everything, which is a de-facto shutdown. They don't want to trap their planes as happened in 93.

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 4, 2010 4:43 PM | Report abuse

When is Pat Robertson forecast to say the storm is coming because the Democrats elected a black president?

Posted by: m_richert | February 4, 2010 4:45 PM | Report abuse

I love how everyone freaks out when it is going to snow. OMG, I need milk, diapers, toilet paper, food. Lions, tigers, bears. Dogs and cats living together. Total anarchy!!

This isn't the 1800s folks. 2 days max, roads will ready.

yes it is hard on the elderly and emergency services, but we have dealt with it before, we can deal with it again.

personally, I love it. I just wish I still had my manual trans or Subaru so I could drive the docs and nurses to work.

Posted by: torrey151 | February 4, 2010 4:45 PM | Report abuse

Snowvechkin for the win! Outstanding.

Snowvechkin will score a hat trick tonight in the Garden, then Ma Nature will score a hat trick of her own with the 3 feet of snow.

Posted by: EricCarr | February 4, 2010 4:48 PM | Report abuse

The World Bank just announced they will be closed Friday "in the interest of staff safety"

Posted by: apan1 | February 4, 2010 4:48 PM | Report abuse

Alexandria City and Stafford Schools have also announced closed for Friday.

Posted by: kb66 | February 4, 2010 4:48 PM | Report abuse

@torrey151

Lots of roads weren't ready two days after the December storm, and this one is forecast to give us more snow, so that seems like a pretty crazy prediction.

Posted by: gmbo | February 4, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

One more thing to take care of during/after the storm -- both for drainage, and for the safety of cats in your neighborhood, make sure you clear an opening to all storm drains as soon as possible.
Around here, people's pets (those who have indoor-outdoor cats) use the storm drains as passages from one side of the road to the other, and also as emergency shelter. If the openings to the drains are clear, the cats have some chance of making it back home to food and warmth. (Of course, the better course would be to make sure they're kept inside for the duration of the bad weather, but some cats simply won't buy that idea...)

Posted by: fsd50 | February 4, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

My poor dog is not going to be able to go potty this weekend.....

Posted by: LadyMac | February 4, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

"I love how everyone freaks out when it is going to snow. OMG, I need milk, diapers, toilet paper, food. Lions, tigers, bears. Dogs and cats living together. Total anarchy!!

This isn't the 1800s folks. 2 days max, roads will ready."

Power outages can send us back to the 1800s.

Posted by: jaydreb1 | February 4, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: voltron88x | February 4, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

QUESTION: What time tomorrow do you expect roadway accumulation to begin?

Posted by: jaydreb1 | February 4, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Current conditions in Burke: 40.3 and cloudy.

Must savor this moment.
Must savor this moment.
Must savor this moment.
Must savor this moment.
Must savor this moment.
Must savor this moment.
Must savor this moment.

Posted by: Yellowboy | February 4, 2010 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Snovechkin Revolution! Rock the Red and people can see you in the blizzard! Lets Go Capitals!

Posted by: mjwies11 | February 4, 2010 4:56 PM | Report abuse

New GFS just came in with about 3" liquid for DC... lots of very high numbers from guidance now. This run does look to threaten a mix just looking at the maps, but with increase in liquid it's kind of a moot point.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

@voltron88x: Bring it on God!

Posted by: johnnyd2 | February 4, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Power outages can send us back to the 1800s.
===

This is why I have cans of soup and sterno.

Oh... And a charcoal grill.

Posted by: mason08 | February 4, 2010 4:59 PM | Report abuse

They just closed Fairfax schools for tomorrow and the weekend. Guess it's gonna be a doozy!!

Posted by: Bworl | February 4, 2010 4:59 PM | Report abuse

O. M. G.

That's about all I have to say. It's interesting watching the panic and mayhem from the outside looking in.

Oh, 50° and misting here in Mobile. Heavy rain has kept about 10-15 miles to the north and east of my college since early this AM. You guys are in for one hell of a storm, savor this moment, snowlovers.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 4, 2010 5:00 PM | Report abuse

Pat Michaels: Yeah, airlines are canceling left and right, will consider updating travelcast in next post a bit later this evening.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: HokieTerp | February 4, 2010 5:03 PM | Report abuse

UVA just canceled classes tomorrow. first time in 30 years. RIDICULOUS

Posted by: danuva | February 4, 2010 5:05 PM | Report abuse

@ me_ahogo

Frad Maukins here and I already made a Greg Oden junk joke about 7 hours ago. Run your Greg Oden schtick by me first next time.

Go trailblazers!

Posted by: FradMaukins | February 4, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

My husband is intending to fly out of bwi tomorrow before 9am to pick up a truck in boston and drive home the same day. Is he crazy given the severity of this forcast?

Posted by: lorismith3 | February 4, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Ridiculous is right. I passed by both a Safeway & Giant in Fairfax County @ 1 hour ago and there were lines (plural) to get in both stores. I, of course, have a 6 month supply of TP...

Posted by: Jayess | February 4, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

I suppose it's too late, but shouldn't snowmageddon come before snowpocalypse?

Posted by: ah___ | February 4, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

To those who have asked about why we are so confident in this forecast, compared to other storms. In large part it's because there has been excellent agreement among the computer models for quite some time now, and our interpretation of those models leads us to the conclusion that we're in for a major storm. The nearly unanimous guidance helps a great deal, as does having so many meteorological minds on the case for our team forecasts. Keep in mind that our forecast amounts could fluctuate in subsequent updates, but we're not anticipating huge swings in the forecast beyond this point.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

A Baltimore forecaster is saying that the storm is "shifting slightly" and that the accumulations might not be as high as is generally thought. Is this true? Are there any real signs of the accumulation possibilities being overstated?

Posted by: br1963 | February 4, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

This isn't the 1800s folks. 2 days max, roads will ready.

yes it is hard on the elderly and emergency services, but we have dealt with it before, we can deal with it again.

personally, I love it. I just wish I still had my manual trans or Subaru so I could drive the docs and nurses to work.

Posted by: torrey151 | February 4, 2010 4:45 PM
Share This: E-Mail | Technorati | Tag in Del.icio.us | Digg This

If we get 2 feet of snow, it will be longer than 2 days before our roads are "ready," especially if we get a few more inches on Tuesday-Wednesday. The last time we got snow in such volume, the Feds were shut down for 3-4 days because people couldn't get out of their neighborhoods, couldn't use all the lanes on the major arteries, and couldn't find places to park downtown. But I love it, too.

Posted by: rbpalmer | February 4, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

I haven't seen one cancellation for any airline for any of the airports.

They will probably cancel everything after 2 or 3....but I can't find one yet.

Anybody want to offer up a reference?

Posted by: singleseatbiggermeat | February 4, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

Sorry, so "about 3" liquid for DC" means how much snow? Is that different from the 16-26 number y'all have on your map?

Also, what does "synaptic meteorology" mean? It was mentioned in the chat.

This site is seriously awesome, guys.

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 4, 2010 5:16 PM | Report abuse

From washcaps.com, for all you caps fans:

"Capitals Game Update and Weather AdvisoryThursday, 02.04.2010 / 1:30 PM / News Washington CapitalsCurrently both Friday’s 7 p.m. game against Atlanta and Sunday’s noon game against Pittsburgh will be played as originally scheduled. If there are any schedule changes or special notifications, they will be posted here at WashingtonCaps.com."

Posted by: dcnative71 | February 4, 2010 5:18 PM | Report abuse

3" liquid and all snow would probably be around 30". I'd guess the number is inflated, though we've seen pretty good consistency today between 2" and 3". The GFS did shift a smidge back toward introducing more mixing issues, but soundings say it's all snow for DCA still.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 5:20 PM | Report abuse

"I suppose it's too late, but shouldn't snowmageddon come before snowpocalypse?"

Dunno. Maybe we can get Bruce Willis & Billy Bob to drill us out...

Posted by: Jayess | February 4, 2010 5:22 PM | Report abuse

br1963: we will not have that kind of talk around here!

Posted by: mchristinaw | February 4, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

Some forecasters (FOX5 and Accuweather) appear to still be forecasting lesser ammts (12-18/20). Either way, it's a lot of snow.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 4, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

here is the link for BWI and Southwest, they have cancelled a bunch tomorrow night.

http://www.southwest.com/html/travel_center/midatlantic_winter_storm_beg_5feb.html#Baltimore%20%28BWI%29

· Friday, February 5: We have cancelled the majority of our afternoon/evening service.

· Saturday, February 6: We have cancelled all service.

· Sunday, February 7: We have cancelled some of our early morning departures; and our ability to resume scheduled service is contingent upon the conditions of the runways, taxiways, and other airport services.

Posted by: craig19 | February 4, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Biggest number I've seen is CBS9's up-to-30 west of Dc.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 4, 2010 5:30 PM | Report abuse

Light snow being reported in Asheville, NC. Creeping closer.

Posted by: JW211 | February 4, 2010 5:32 PM | Report abuse

but, rbpalmber, the last time we had only solar energy to clear the snow. Now we have plows. Except in Ward 8, where they vote for the solar energy approach.

Posted by: ah___ | February 4, 2010 5:32 PM | Report abuse

CWG -- I'm out of town on business and have already bumped back my flight home. Any thoughts on my chances of getting home on Sunday night? (Headed into National airport) How soon could the airports be dug out?

Posted by: SilverySpringlike | February 4, 2010 5:32 PM | Report abuse

UMD is holding out until tomorrow: "Because we have received a lot of inquiries, I want to let the campus community know that my staff and I have been closely monitoring weather reports on the severe snow storm predicted to hit our area sometime tomorrow. We have also been in communication with weather experts and campus administrators to ensure the safety of the campus community. Estimates of the timing of the storm's arrival still vary, but we will have more reliable data early tomorrow morning which we will use to make a decision about any change to the campus schedule."

Posted by: edwardappleby | February 4, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Wow. Moisture from the ITCZ (see satellite). Is this "The Day After Tomorrow"?

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 4, 2010 5:35 PM | Report abuse

It's weekends like this that make me regret choosing a finance degree over meteorology. I'd love 2 feet, do a jig with 3 but will be happy with anything over 1. I plan on taking these next few days to bond with my kids on sleds, build a snowman, snowwoman and maybe a snow dog, enjoy some beer, watch a football game and break out the single malt scotch if we have a top 5 storm (16.7+ inches).

Posted by: amaranthpa | February 4, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

CWG thanks for the explanation on why the forecasters are confident we will get a lot of snow.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 4, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

the real reason cwg is critical:
grocery store yesterday..... no lines
12 varied microbrew 6 packs for wife and self
milk broccoli and nuggets for kids
1000 gallons of propane/generator and the end of a dirt road out by leesburg.....
thx cwg!

Posted by: mandarb77 | February 4, 2010 5:46 PM | Report abuse

CWG...Do you see any mixing for Annapolis?....I know it will be close but I can't read the models well enough to tell for sure. Thanks for your thoughts!

Posted by: jcmcgrath1969 | February 4, 2010 5:47 PM | Report abuse

Loudoun County just called it - their schools will be closed tomorrow.

Posted by: valonghornnow | February 4, 2010 5:48 PM | Report abuse

For those asking about record snowfalls in the NE corridor, Philly had 31 inches in Jan. 1996, Baltimore had 28 inches in 2003 and NYC had a similar snowfall a few winters back. I recall Worcester getting 34 inches or thereabouts in a single storm. Not sure if Boston has ever topped 30 inches for a single snowfall.

Microlocations can get even more and it also depends on how you definite the NE corridor.

Bob Ryan is saying up to 30 inches in the NW Virginia/eastern WV highlands. Berkeley Springs had more than 3 ft. in 2003. and Big Meadows had 48 inches in 1996. So they can really get buried in the mountains and valleys west of here. Someplace in the NC Smokies had 50-60 inches in 1993.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 4, 2010 5:49 PM | Report abuse

I can't tell squat looking at that satellite photograph. How can you tell what is feeding where? I'll trust you on it.

Posted by: BaracksTeleprompter | February 4, 2010 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: samdman95 | February 4, 2010 5:55 PM | Report abuse

@ThinkSpring, how is that whole Think Spring thing working out for ya? Sorry I couldn't resist :)

Posted by: snowlover | February 4, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

@LeeOnTheHill snOMG, someone needs to make that video for YouTube! Pure genius.

Posted by: ArlingtonGay | February 4, 2010 5:59 PM | Report abuse

How can you not get excited about this storm. I am addicted to checking the model runs! I have problems!!!

Posted by: snowlover | February 4, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

What accounts for the discrepancy between Maryland (early dismissals, only from AA and Carroll) and Virginia (closures from Fairfax, Alexandria, Manassas, etc)? If anything, isn't Maryland on the ugly side of this thing?

Posted by: edwardappleby | February 4, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

@edwardappleby: More than likely the later onset combined with differences in criteria school districts use for closings.

Posted by: RandC | February 4, 2010 6:16 PM | Report abuse

Baracks Teleprompter:

I did a 12-hour hemispheric ir loop at weather.unisys.com and you can clearly see the connection of this storm to the clouds in the equatorial Pacific. That's something even the 93 superstorm did not pull off.

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 4, 2010 6:17 PM | Report abuse

@edwardapplby

Might also be due to amount of snow days used by school districts. MD seems to close later (at times) than VA.

Interesting that Loudoun, Fairfax, Alexandria, Stafford, and Manassas City are closed, but no Prince William or Manassas Park.. yet.

Posted by: aquarnnr | February 4, 2010 6:20 PM | Report abuse

From the HPC heavy discussion - note the icing southern VA and NC:

BASED ON THE CONSENSUS QPF FORECAST...A BROAD AREA OF 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INVOF OF DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS...WITH BANDING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMBERS WELL ABOVE 18 INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE DC METRO AREA TO THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA/SRN JERSEY SHORES AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE ESTUARIES. SIGNIFICANT ICING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT

Posted by: RandC | February 4, 2010 6:22 PM | Report abuse

@CWG is there an upside to the storm at this point? Meaning could totals go even higher or can they only stay the same or go lower? Thanks!!!

Posted by: snowlover | February 4, 2010 6:22 PM | Report abuse

Sing it with me . . . Neh Neh Snownomenon

Posted by: Narrows | February 4, 2010 6:22 PM | Report abuse

As of 5:30 PM, Arlington County schools are open tomorrow. County government doing the unscheduled leave thing, but for now, open.

Posted by: ArlingtonGay | February 4, 2010 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Is it too premature to start suggesting names for this latest expected event?, Such as Son of Snowzilla, Snowmageddon Redux, the Amazing Snowlossal Beast, Snowpocalypse II, Snowno!, etc.

Will the CWG award any valuable prizes for the best name?

Posted by: MillPond2 | February 4, 2010 6:25 PM | Report abuse

A little climatology note: The greatest depth I know of away from the mountains was at The Plains, west of DC near I-66, at four feet, in February, 1899 (though that took two storms in three-four days). Having seen a lot of big snows, this is the place to look for the max, and I would target it again tomorrow and Saturday.

2/1899 was quite a month. Temperatures were around zero during the second storm.

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 4, 2010 6:25 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover

I think our totals are pretty close to final but we could tweak a little either up or down. And there is some possibililty that totals will fall outside our range...so we'll give those probabilities in our next update later this evening.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 6:27 PM | Report abuse

snowlover, if liquid outputs from today are correct there could be an upside, but once you get into this territory it's hard to realistically forecast much higher. In the Dec 19 storm some places north and west came in near 30". I would not be surprised to see that again, perhaps a smidge higher.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

OK folks.I have waited 5 years to say this.....this is a weather site..not a travel agency. How the heck is CWG supposed to know when an airport is gonna be dug out or if your Tuesday flight might go out? Geesh..,read the forecast and make your best judgement!


Bring on the snow...YES YES YES Finally,,now if we could only get these on a Wed. Thanks CWG. I tell my friends this is the only place to get weather forecasts!!!

Posted by: weatherwatcher | February 4, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

CWG: When's your next update? I know weather forecasting is somewhat fluid (yeah, yeah, pun intended :-)), but y'all might wanna think about setting up set times for when you update this awesome blog. Or at least only for major weather events as they coincide with new model data coming in (the times of which I -- and I imagine a lot of other folks -- don't know), and put that prominently somewhere in each blog post: "Next Update: XX:30pm".

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 4, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Prince William County Schools Closed Friday

Posted by: kb66 | February 4, 2010 6:34 PM | Report abuse

Juan-John1, I would imagine later this evening between 9-11 though I don't know for sure. ;) At this point there is not much new guidance that comes out till around 9 and not much till around 11.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Any school or work that is open, is basically asking for angry people to come in...stare out the window all morning...and then leave as soon as flakes start falling...

Sorry folks...people get excited, and are ready to shut it down when 2 feet of snow is on the way...

Posted by: SA-Town | February 4, 2010 6:38 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: ChadwickWDC | February 4, 2010 6:39 PM | Report abuse

@CWG thanksfor the quick response! The most I ever remember seeing as a forecast in this area (lived here for 37 years) is 24-36. Now I was in Salisbury MD for the 1993 storm, so I can't speak for that storm, but I would have to imagine this area will see one of those Perfect Storms where we get this type of moisture and extreme dry air with 20:1 ratios. Now that would be awesome!

Posted by: snowlover | February 4, 2010 6:43 PM | Report abuse

What will Monday look like? What is the Fedcast for Monday? Will they be closed?

Posted by: dc_attorney | February 4, 2010 6:43 PM | Report abuse

While you are shoveling your driveways/walks, don't forget to shovel out your nearest fire hydrant. If needed (and on the assumption that the emergency vehicle can make it there), it could make a big difference.

Posted by: amaranthpa | February 4, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

@IAN,

"The GFS did shift a smidge back toward introducing more mixing issues, but soundings say it's all snow for DCA still. "

Okay. I understand soundings to a point. My current understanding is that they are present time data. From your quoted statement it sounds like there is a future prognostication aspect to them. To help me (and I am sure a few others visiting this blog) understand that would you please indulge me with a short explanation on how they are forward looking?

Thanks in advance,
PJ

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 4, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

re: additional updates--

At least one, and possibly two posts between now and 11 p.m. ... exact timing TBD.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

I was in Shippensburg, PA when they got 36" or 37" in Jan 1995. (or 1996?) I vaguely remember a blizzard in CT in 1979. My dad tunneled instead of shoveled because the drifts were just too much. My brother and I spent a day sledding through the tunnel! I can't remember numbers for accumulation, but I remember my mom talking about 8' drifts.

Posted by: debiguity | February 4, 2010 6:47 PM | Report abuse

@dc_attorney

Two or three Capitol domes for Monday at this point. We'll see how much snow we get and re-assess.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 6:48 PM | Report abuse

Where do all the old snow shovels go? Everytime snow is 4cast every hardware store runs out of snow shovels. What do people do with their old ones, do they throw them away after each storm? Maybe they put them in the dryer with all the socks that disappear. I've had the same shovel since 1974. Is there some place where all the snow shovels go after each snow? Panic has once again set in, the end of days is here. Go Hokies beat the Heels!!!

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 4, 2010 6:50 PM | Report abuse

What really worries me is not this Weekend's storm. It's already a done deal and we know it's coming and it is going to be big.

But there is another one already on the way for tuesday and NO ONE is talking about it!

(Is that because this first storm is doing to destroy the world, so we need not worry what will happen on tuesday?)

Tell us about the Tuesday storm, CWG!!

Posted by: sallyquint | February 4, 2010 6:52 PM | Report abuse

@sallyquint

Tuesday's storm looks like a non-event at this point. GFS has 2 inches max.

Posted by: bdeco | February 4, 2010 6:54 PM | Report abuse

so cwg. footsforecast is looking pretty good with their predcition from monday

Posted by: snowlover3 | February 4, 2010 6:56 PM | Report abuse

bdeco

Those 2 inches could be the the straw that breaks the camel's back!!!

Just kidding :)

Posted by: celestun100 | February 4, 2010 6:58 PM | Report abuse

Storm seems pretty close to us on the radar, is it coming in earlier than expected?

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 4, 2010 6:59 PM | Report abuse

Gang - I am really concerned about this power outage thing. We have above ground wires here in Rockville and two small kids, not to mention I have an online graduate exam on Sunday (do you think the University of South Florida would understand a snow emergency if the power goes out)? What are the chances of widespread power outages?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 4, 2010 7:02 PM | Report abuse

pjdunn1, I guess I left off "forecast" before sounding. You can pull them off various sites for different hours of a model run. The 18z GFS maps look like they may want to introduce mix but the forecast soundings themselves at the hours in question show all snow -- with some room actually. I think it might be in part that the timeframe in question also has insane vertical velocities and qpf, which can help to keep the column cool. One thing you'll see in a lot of storms though is places just north of the mixing areas do very well .. so while a snow lover might not like hearing about mix, if you are close but not in it you're often golden.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 7:02 PM | Report abuse

AL GORE'S REVENGE SHOULD BE THE NAME OF THE STORM

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | February 4, 2010 7:04 PM | Report abuse

>Where do all the old snow shovels go?

I wonder about that every time there is a moderate to major storm. There's not so much turnover that 110% of the populace lacks a snow shovel the first time it snows every winter.

Posted by: Murre | February 4, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

A lot of the people claiming historic storms are all wet.

I live in the Metro area and about 4 years ago (or so), we got 32" with a noreaster type storm.

Back in '96 again in the DC region, we got 36" took me 3 days to shovel a tiny driveway back then. Even the 4wd got stuck.

So while it's interesting that we're getting up to 20", it's hardly historic; it's not even a 10 year high for a storm.

Posted by: Ombudsman1 | February 4, 2010 7:08 PM | Report abuse

I blame Obama. The first winter after his inauguration and we get all these snowstorms. He's from Chicago. That can't be just a coincidence.

i might go missing after posting this statement and you will all know why.

Posted by: ajw827 | February 4, 2010 7:09 PM | Report abuse

"I've had the same shovel since 1974"

I keep mine for decades as well. My oldest was getting ratty, so I straightened it and pop-riveted the handle area back to the blade. A bit tricky because you don't want to use dissimilar metals, so I had to find large aluminum rivets.

You're right. you'd think by now you couldn't sell another shovel. I personally think that what happens is people leave them outside, they get ruined by the spring and then they throw them out.

People are generally lazy, that's all.

Posted by: Ombudsman1 | February 4, 2010 7:11 PM | Report abuse

@ Murre

People ditch them for an excuse to head out before a storm for the real necessities...like TP... Who does not have a 3 day supply of TP?

Posted by: amaranthpa | February 4, 2010 7:11 PM | Report abuse

Soundings provide the vertical distribution of meteorological parameters. Observationally, the data are obtained from weather balloons and satellites.

The comparable forecast information (forecast sounding) is derived directly from the vertical distribution of parameters in forecast
models

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

Thanks again Ian.(as usual)
I lurk a bit on Eastern and besides some of the mets that post there I focus on your moderating. Sensible, educational, candid, and at times colorful? commentary. Fair assessment? I don't know. I just like the "half glass full" mentality and the ability to connect with the rest of us not-so-literate weather weenies.

PJ

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 4, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

snowlover3 -

Ok, we get it. You're all goofy over your guesses at this storm's and the last storm's accumulations on FF. Congrats. Big pat on the back. Hugs and kisses. My wife has won her work's NCAA tournament pool two years in a row. But that doesn't mean she's ready for Sports Center. CWG is a weather forecasting forum that thousands of people depend on daily. They make rationale, science-based forecasts based on the totality of the information available. Their goal is to inform, not to wishcast the region's children out of a day in school. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but enough already. If you don't like CWG's forecast, feel free to go blow your own horn on your favorite site. That is all.

Posted by: ParkerGP | February 4, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

Unfortunately we had a huge trip planned to Canaan Valley, WV this weekend. What are the chances that we'd be able to drive back safely on Sunday? Or, would we be stuck until Monday?

Posted by: chaps1 | February 4, 2010 7:21 PM | Report abuse

The December storm took two shovels from us -- both were old and wood-handled, and they snapped. We bought a new one a week ago, and would like to buy another one (for the back), but we were a little late in trying.

So that's why we contributed to the burgeoning snow shovel economy.

Posted by: SpiralStairs | February 4, 2010 7:21 PM | Report abuse

Thank you Steve.
This is why this is the best weather site on the net. You want answers, a met (or equivalent) or two answers your question. And they handle criticism better than anybody I know.
Go Snow!

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 4, 2010 7:26 PM | Report abuse

pjdunn1, thanks. That made me chuckle a bit. I've still got a lot to learn myself, but I do try to share what I can so glad you feel that way.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 7:27 PM | Report abuse

CWG, I have a dental appointment at 8 a.m. three blocks from where I live. Do you think it will start snowing before I've finished the appointment? Should I take snow shoes, just in case?

I understand people who have travel plans are apprehensive but look around at what's happening. Amtrak has cancelled southbound trains tomorrow. The airlines are cancelling flights like crazy. So what's to ask?

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 4, 2010 7:38 PM | Report abuse

ok, i am officially WAY excited. can't wait for it to get started. have bacon, wine, cheese, hot chocolate and firewood.

CWG,
as a rule, it would be nice if when you start a new thread, you'd let us know in the most recent active thread.

i suspect over the next few days there will be lots of people like me who'll be "refresh"ing often and may not realize a new thread is up.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 4, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

@CWG or anyone else for that matter, I am still a novice at forecasting, I can read the NAM or GFS, and tell how much precip is coming and general precip type via the zero(0) line, but I can't forecast much else. That said, in Odenton, MD or for those who don't know, that is Crofotn/Bowie or Annapolis if you must, should i worry about precip type at this point? Yes I am well entrenched in the 16-26" zone, but is mixing a concern? Thanks!

Posted by: snowlover | February 4, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

Walter:

Bacon, cheese, wine and chocolate? Might want to mix in a salad, too--or at least some Lipitor!

Posted by: seamhed | February 4, 2010 7:43 PM | Report abuse

Outside of CWG - this is my favorite place to get the hour by hour...which may help answer the large number of questions or what it will look like at X hour of the day....


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w5=pop&w8=rain&w9=snow&AheadHour=10&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=38.87870&textField2=-77.10190&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0

Posted by: shackleton | February 4, 2010 7:45 PM | Report abuse

Walter

What are you going to sculpt this time? (If we get snow):)

Posted by: celestun100 | February 4, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

shackleton - cool graph, thanks! So NWS is saying that there is a 64% chance of precip starting @ 10 AM, and 100% chance of precip starting at 1:00?

Posted by: kathyb39 | February 4, 2010 7:51 PM | Report abuse

I think that's what it means - the graph is built for Arlington (based on my zip code entry) and can be found on your location specific Weather.gov page under the option "Hourly Weather Graph"

What blew my mind is that if you sum all the snow it comes to....23 inches

Posted by: shackleton | February 4, 2010 7:58 PM | Report abuse

seamhed, you said,
"Bacon, cheese, wine and chocolate? Might want to mix in a salad, too--or at least some Lipitor!"

'preciate your concern... i have some leftover chicken...perhaps i'll make chicken SALAD....

celestun100,
don't know what i'll make. many thoughts though. given the extended forcast, i think i'll have lots of time to think about that: i don't see sustained above-freezing temps (required to make "packing snow") until wed or thurs of next week!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 4, 2010 7:59 PM | Report abuse

Just got back from my local Bloom store. Crowded, but not too much of a headache.

Busiest aisle? Beer and wine, hands down.

Posted by: teezee210 | February 4, 2010 8:00 PM | Report abuse

@teezee210

This is why I love DC!

Posted by: mensan98th | February 4, 2010 8:02 PM | Report abuse

Wow Parker GP - you seem angry, defensive and jealous all at the same time - and you can do it without even "trying to be a jerk" - must just come naturally.

Snowlover3 - I agree - unfortunately sniping at other sites goes along with defending non-forecasting. Come out early and its just "hype" - get it right, and it's just "luck."

Posted by: manatt | February 4, 2010 8:05 PM | Report abuse

Walter, I think you should make a fairyland!

Posted by: Melewen | February 4, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Just called Southwest-- they assured me that my flight will be still on (from Chicago to BWI, arriving around 9pm) and that it will be only 20 minutes delayed...

Can anybody here tell me whether Southwest Airlines got the guts to fly us in the blizzard on Friday evening which CWG has declared the worst timeslot for the Snowmageddon????

I so do NOT want to be stuck at Midway Airport. Southwest is either gusty or one lying bastard.

Posted by: SanDieganLostinDC | February 4, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Can Maryland just make a call on the schools already??? It sure seems like a no brainer to keep the kids at home.

Posted by: kathyb39 | February 4, 2010 8:27 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover

You may get some sleet. But it shouldn't drastically impact accumulations. In 1996 and 2003, two of the top 5 biggest storms on record at DCA, there was mixing... A lot of the really big storms mix around here-- especially along and east of I-95

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 4, 2010 8:30 PM | Report abuse

@stuckman, there are no dances tomorrow night, except at the Dulles Hilton.

Gottaswing is phasing out the Friday night dances @ Chevy Chase because attendance has been declining. This was announced even before the snowstorm.

There IS a swing dance scheduled Saturday night at the Spanish Ballroom, Glen Echo, by the Washington Swing Dance Committee. This dance will likely be CANCELLED. Last Saturday Glen Echo cancelled a dance with far less snow.

Beyond that, a Sunday night dance at McGinty's, Bethesda was called off earlier this week due to some little event called the "Super Bowl" scheduled the same evening.

That leaves Monday night at Chevy Chase and Tuesday night at the Clarendon Ballroom. Both these dances may be dependent on whether Metro reopens above ground by then. However the Clarendon Ballroom DOES NOT LIKE weather-related cancellations.

BTW, while we prepare for the blizzard, French Polynesia is gearing up for a Category 4 South Pacific tropical cyclone. Welcome to Hurricane Season, 2010!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 4, 2010 8:31 PM | Report abuse

@SanDieganLostinDC, I think Southwest is gusty. Or gutsy.

Posted by: Murre | February 4, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1...thank you.

Posted by: weatherwatcher | February 4, 2010 8:33 PM | Report abuse

Here's more on the upcoming storm:

Military meteorologists have told the White House to prepare for 40 inches or more here in Washington.

Arlington Public Schools are already CLOSED for tomorrow.

Metro is warning that eight inches of snow CLOSES all rail service above ground.

I'm still forecasting possible THUNDERSNOW any time between 3 PM tomorrow and noon Saturday. Convective banding should be prominent at the height of the storm.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 4, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

@SanDieganLostinDC, are you sure they weren't giving you the status for that flight for tonight? Seems odd they'd tell you the delay for tomorrow, and the Southwest website says that they've canceled the majority of tomorrow afternoon/evening service and all day Saturday.

Posted by: masasi | February 4, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

My husband and I are expecting our first child literally any day now, and I know that drops in barometric pressure can sometimes cause increases in "false labor" contractions or even full-blown labor. So my question is this: when will the pressure drop in advance of this storm? Obviously there's nothing I can actually *do* about this, but knowing when to brace myself would be good.

Posted by: Aimily | February 4, 2010 8:44 PM | Report abuse

@Bombo47jea, care to provide a reference on your "military meteorologists"? Why would the military have some super secret weatherdudes that only share the "real" forecast with The White House?

Posted by: SteveinAtown | February 4, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

@chaps1. Unless there's a way for you to get home from Canaan Valley W.Va. without driving through W.Va. mere hours after a "paralyzing" (accuweather) blizzard, I really don't see how it'll be doable. And I say this as someone who loves W.Va. and is not simply looking for an excuse to snark at our appalling roads.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 4, 2010 8:52 PM | Report abuse

8:45 NWS update - 18"-24" in NoVa/DC - the low end keeps creeping up and up with every update.

Posted by: APU2100 | February 4, 2010 8:54 PM | Report abuse

@SteveinAtown No idea where Bombo's reference comes from, but if true, my guess would be it's just the military telling the White House to prepare for a worst case scenario. The forty inches of snow has less than 1% chance of happening, but that chance may still be high enough for certain institutions to take extra precautions that most of us would consider over-reacting.

Posted by: nlcaldwell | February 4, 2010 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Frankly, it doesn't get any better than this. On the eve of, perhaps, one of the top two or three biggest snowfalls ever recorded in the DC metro area, it's superbowl weekend, people losing their bloody minds in the mass hysteria taking place in most of our grocery stores, news media stirring the "hype" pot, ANTICIPATION running wild, beer & wine sales rivaling Thanksgiving, Xmas and New Years . . . it doesn't get much better than this!

Posted by: johnnierat | February 4, 2010 9:05 PM | Report abuse

So, I just linked in and I don't have time to read all the comments. Is it going to snow this weekend?

Posted by: Trulee | February 4, 2010 9:09 PM | Report abuse

@Aimily: Any chance you could call your doctor and induce the labor, like say, in the next couple hours or so? That way you wouldn't have to worry about the ambulance getting stuck in a snowdrift on the way to pick you up....

Posted by: Juan-John | February 4, 2010 9:12 PM | Report abuse

Just further evidence of global warming.

Posted by: festus75 | February 4, 2010 9:20 PM | Report abuse

Just further evidence of climate change.

Posted by: birdynumnum | February 4, 2010 9:24 PM | Report abuse

"Just further evidence of global warming."

Just further evidence of how cuts in education benefit the radical right. They get elected because they keep the population ignorant. If they adequately funded schools, more people would know the difference between climate and weather, between short-term temperature fluctuations and long-term global temperatures. So to remain in power, they keep the public mesmerized by their bumper-sticker slogans and away from the dangers of reading books.

Posted by: thuff7 | February 4, 2010 9:27 PM | Report abuse

"@SteveinAtown No idea where Bombo's reference comes from, but if true, my guess would be it's just the military telling the White House to prepare for a worst case scenario. The forty inches of snow has less than 1% chance of happening, but that chance may still be high enough for certain institutions to take extra precautions that most of us would consider over-reacting."

_______________________________________________
He copied that from EasternWX. Some bozo posted that to be funny.

Posted by: MKadyman | February 4, 2010 9:32 PM | Report abuse

The world:
6' to 10' crippling
4-6' noteworthy
2-4' snow
1-2' snow shower
0-1' dusting

DC area
0-1" headline
1-6" crippling
6"-1' disaster
>1' it's the end of the world as we know it.

Posted by: thuff7 | February 4, 2010 9:34 PM | Report abuse

really people, there are plenty of political blogs you can go spout off on. not really the time or place.

Posted by: bhfairfax | February 4, 2010 9:34 PM | Report abuse

Seriously, enough with the global warming comments. One unusually bad winter doesn't negate/prove anything.

Posted by: ultrapop101 | February 4, 2010 9:36 PM | Report abuse

3 points for Snovechkin. 12 in a row. Lets GO Capitals!

Posted by: mjwies11 | February 4, 2010 9:40 PM | Report abuse

"really people, there are plenty of political blogs you can go spout off on. not really the time or place."

Sorry, didn't mean to interrupt your mass hysteria. Armageddon outta here.

Posted by: thuff7 | February 4, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

yeah, you're talking about vast right wing education conspiracies and I'm hysterical...

Posted by: bhfairfax | February 4, 2010 9:45 PM | Report abuse

@thuff7

The world:
6' to 10' crippling
4-6' noteworthy
2-4' snow
1-2' snow shower
0-1' dusting

DC area
0-1" headline
1-6" crippling
6"-1' disaster
>1' it's the end of the world as we know it. AND I FEEL FINE!!!

Posted by: jase700 | February 4, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Nice Jase - That's just about right!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 4, 2010 9:51 PM | Report abuse

Ode to the Storm by amandap8
(Hope you all enjoy, I was bored in class tonight anticipating the storm)

Here comes the snow, Here comes the snow,
And I say, it’s all right

Little darling, it's been a long hot muggy summer
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the snow, here comes the snow
and I say it's all right

Little darling, we’ve bought hot choco by the cases
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been here
Here comes the snow, here comes the snow
and I say it's all right

Fun, fun, fun, here it comes...
Fun, fun, fun, here it comes...
Fun, fun, fun, here it comes...
Fun, fun, fun, here it comes...
Fun, fun, fun, here it comes...

Little darling, I feel this might just be a pelting
Little darling, Just stay at home—nothing to fear
Here comes the snow, here comes the snow,
and I say it's all right
It's all right

Posted by: amandap8 | February 4, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

@amandap8: Brilliant.

Posted by: --sg | February 4, 2010 9:59 PM | Report abuse

@amandap8 -- agreeing with --sg, nice work! No doubt George would like it too :-)

Posted by: natsncats | February 4, 2010 10:05 PM | Report abuse

200!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 4, 2010 10:08 PM | Report abuse

@dc_attorney

Fed will be open Monday. Unscheduled leave.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 4, 2010 10:08 PM | Report abuse

OMG! Check out this radar loop:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/usradar.html

The low is literally sucking up the Gulf of Mexico and dropping it on land! I don't think i've ever seen anything quite like it, outside of a landfalling tropical storm.

Posted by: bdeco | February 4, 2010 10:13 PM | Report abuse

Yea here comes the snow HAHA. Persistant cold rain all day. Was heavy for past 3 hours. Huge storm, T shape coming together nice. Batten down the hatches here it comes. Nobody is going anywhere new low will bring in a good backlash Lets go #1. either way amazing, historic, nothing like it for atleast 20 years gona have to be better than 98 with the combination of 2 crippling snowstorms in same season. Still a long way to go. SO i say Lets go Winter record. Bring it on snowmaggedon.

Posted by: jmc732msstate | February 4, 2010 10:21 PM | Report abuse

amandap8,

Well Done! Can we call this sNOwpolitics??

Posted by: SPS1 | February 4, 2010 10:22 PM | Report abuse

To CWG: what do you think the roads will be like at the normal rush hour time, say 5 or 6? My fiancé works in NJ right now and is planning on coming home and hitting the area around that time. What is the chance of him getting stuck in a hotel somewhere around Baltimore?

Posted by: gnomish | February 4, 2010 10:38 PM | Report abuse

@seamhed: No no, the wine cuts right through the bacon and cheese. Chocolate carries off the free radicals.

Posted by: --sg | February 4, 2010 10:41 PM | Report abuse

@gnomish: Can you get the fiance to leave now? No way he'll make it past both Baltimore and DC anytime past 3pm...maybe, anytime past noon, depending on when it all starts.

Posted by: --sg | February 4, 2010 10:44 PM | Report abuse

gfs=25+ inches

Posted by: cjespn | February 4, 2010 10:58 PM | Report abuse

Weather update tonight or no?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | February 4, 2010 11:05 PM | Report abuse

Perfect time to get it on with your honey and increase the Christian populus. F you Taliban! We will bury you with our soldiers

Posted by: veloboldie | February 5, 2010 3:39 AM | Report abuse

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