Some snow now... a lot of snow later?
Two chances for snow: Second one could be major
* 2-4" of snow possible later today/tonight: Full Forecast *
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Late today/tonight; Friday-Saturday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 70% and 75%
The first chance of accumulating snow comes later today and tonight from a relatively small storm that could drop up a few inches of snow. See our full forecast for all the details.
Now, on to the bigger threat...
Like clockwork, we are facing yet another potential major winter storm on or overlapping with a weekend. Once again, cold air being driven southward will converge with precipitation being pushed northward Friday into Saturday. There are two notable differences from the past weekend's event, however: (1) The cold air is not expected to be as strong, so temperatures may not be as cold and the potential snow could be of a wetter variety; some mixed precipitation also can't be ruled out yet. (2) The storm is expected to be stronger than last weekend's event, meaning we could see higher winds and heavier precipitation.
Like last week, the weather guidance on this system may vary in the coming days and expectations will likely change a few times before the storm arrives, possibly by around Friday afternoon as it looks now and persisting into Saturday and maybe Saturday night. However, given the impressive combination of cold air supply and moisture this winter -- the very active subtropical branch of the jet stream in this pattern suggests that this storm will have an ample moisture supply -- the mid-Atlantic continues to be in a highly favored position for continued significant snow opportunities.
As usual, storm track will be a key factor determining how much and what type of precipitation we see. If the storm passes too far to the south, then it could lower our accumulation potential (but that has not been the trend this year). Another risk is that if the storm trends too far north/inland, we could see more in the way of mixed precipitation, which would lower accumulations (especially south and east sections).
Here are the current (VERY EARLY) probabilities on accumulations:
25% chance: Less than 1"
25% chance: 1-4"
30% chance: 4-8"
20% chance: 8"+
The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.
| February 2, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories: Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Snowmageddon
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