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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/ 7/2010

Midweek storm has snowy potential

By Brian Jackson

* Update, 4 p.m.: Winter Storm Watch issued for Tues.: 5"+ possible *

* Until then, cold with some sun: CWG's Full Forecast *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Tuesday P.M.-Wednesday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 75%

Barely into the clean-up stage -- and before snow lovers can even come down off their "Snowmageddon" high -- we've got another possibly disruptive storm to track. A system expected to move through during the latter part of Tuesday and into Wednesday has the potential to once again put down some significant accumulation -- maybe several inches -- of snow or a snow/sleet mix.


The Global Forecast System model shows an area of intense upper-level energy approaching the area early Wednesday, which could mean significant precipitation, possibly in the form of snow. Courtesy NCEP.

The storm that has eyes on the D.C. area is currently bringing precipitation to California and other western states. By late Tuesday, the storm's low-pressure center should be approaching from the west, and as it does it's likely to begin transferring its energy to a new area of low pressure expected to form off the North Carolina-South Carolina coast.

On the current pace and track, precipitation from this system would probably begin Tuesday afternoon or night and could be light at first. As is typically the case, the exact track will determine who gets snow or a mix (and how much), though the current thinking is that much of it could be snow, with the heaviest falling Tuesday night into Wednesday.

As with any storm more than 48 hours away, accumulation estimates are iffy at best, and should be treated as such. Here's a preliminary look at accumulation probabilities:

25%: Less than 1"
30%: 1-4"
30%: 4-8"
15%: 8"+

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Brian Jackson  | February 7, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Snowmageddon departs after setting records
Next: Forecast: More snow?... Are you kidding?

Comments

First! (And yes, I'm just kidding here).

When will you guys be able to take a vacation from all of this snow??

I think the north would gladly take some of this snow off our hands (already worn from all the shoveling).

Posted by: JSTF | February 7, 2010 5:03 AM | Report abuse

As far as the Tuesday-Wednesday snow event, please say it isn't so!

Are the suburbs to the SW of DC (such as Stafford) expecting as much snow as DC?

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 7, 2010 5:11 AM | Report abuse

I get the feeling school will be out all week and the Federal Government will be out for half the week closed or on liberal leave

Posted by: HaymarketDV | February 7, 2010 5:32 AM | Report abuse


This winter will top 95-96 for total snow, making it #2 in the all-time snowiest winters. It's not likely to exceed 1899 though.

Posted by: blasmaic | February 7, 2010 5:43 AM | Report abuse

CWG...What an awesome job from this last storm! I am a teacher in Anne Arudel County and I have told many other teachers about your website. Keep up the good work!

Posted by: jcmcgrath1969 | February 7, 2010 6:07 AM | Report abuse

This sucks.

Posted by: hereandnow1 | February 7, 2010 6:46 AM | Report abuse

Anybody able to get novec's outage map to work? Not sure if it's their site or my pokey net

Posted by: mandarb77 | February 7, 2010 6:47 AM | Report abuse

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Posted by: Murre | February 7, 2010 7:03 AM | Report abuse

@mandarb77, I don't see a map, just a table, for NOVEC outages. I'm using Safari and Firefox versions from mid-2009 and later, on a mac.

Posted by: Murre | February 7, 2010 7:09 AM | Report abuse

If DCA gets just 9.4 inches the rest of the season, the all-time Washington seasonal snowfall record will fall.

Seasonal total at IAD is already at an even 60"!!

Posted by: HenryFPotter | February 7, 2010 7:21 AM | Report abuse

At least we had a beautiful sunrise this morning with all the snow on the ground. I wish I could have been on the national mall to take photos

Posted by: lnoz | February 7, 2010 7:23 AM | Report abuse

Seriously -- enough. There's only so much the snow plows -- and more importantly, the utility trucks -- can do.

Posted by: BDVienna | February 7, 2010 7:40 AM | Report abuse

Freezing rain fell a few days after the 1979 Prez Day storm. What a mess! Snow is actually better. Accuweather, which is conservative, is estimating 4.7 inches of snow on 2/9-2/10.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 7, 2010 7:43 AM | Report abuse

True, Jerry. But for once in my life, I'm rooting for rain.

Posted by: BDVienna | February 7, 2010 7:46 AM | Report abuse

I'm rooting for snow over rain. Last thing we need is flooding. Remember '96?

Posted by: DontWannaMyPostID | February 7, 2010 7:51 AM | Report abuse

No rain! Snow! Snow! Not mater how much! Snow!

Posted by: Murre | February 7, 2010 7:54 AM | Report abuse

... No matter how much ...

Posted by: Murre | February 7, 2010 7:57 AM | Report abuse

Uncle!

Posted by: oldtimehockey | February 7, 2010 8:05 AM | Report abuse

@JerryFloyd1

That was my concern with this next storm on Friday. There was a warm pulse forecast to come up with it up in the lower atmosphere causing us to have a likely chance of rain at the onset. But that pulse has sunk south and the atmosphere is now forecast (consistently over the last several model runs) to be cold enough for snow/sleet. Better that that freezing rain!

Looks like the biggest impacts at this point will be north and east of DC.

Posted by: RandC | February 7, 2010 8:13 AM | Report abuse

Please, no more snow, I am worn out from wrestling with my snow blower yesterday. Even though it is a fairly hefty 8hp blower, the snow was so deep I really had to wrestle it around to get things clean up, I have to clear about 250 ft. Of course a smaller snow on Weds. should be much easier, but I am just sick of it now (I don't like winter anyway). I look at my travel trailer while clearing the snow and dream of warmer days at Assateague or Rocky Gap! No snow, no snow no snow (I have a feeling that the chant won't work. Oh well. Now I look forward to my 100 RT commute tomorrow!

Posted by: soyboy99 | February 7, 2010 8:14 AM | Report abuse

Why be surprised?

Here is the bipartisan message from Heaven:

The massive snow storm is clearly God's punishment for electing Obama as President (Republicans and Tea-partiers) or for electing a Republican in Massachusetts (Democrats ands Liberals).

Following the story of Sodom and Gomorroh, there will be no more snow on Tuesday, if even ONE righteous person can e found in Washington!

Posted by: solentary1 | February 7, 2010 8:22 AM | Report abuse

Haven't had Comcast Cable here in Gaithersburg since early yest afternoon. Need to find a place with TV before 6PM. Not going to miss the Super Bowl

Posted by: derrickd | February 7, 2010 8:25 AM | Report abuse

I have not heard a shovel or snow blower all morning!!! Have we been defeated????
Perhaps we are just in denial.

Posted by: jawz33 | February 7, 2010 9:34 AM | Report abuse

Should we be concerned with a flight into BWI 8PM Tuesday? How about the 70 mile drive from BWI to Hagerstown at 8PM? Is it an Aaaargh??

Posted by: dustygroundhog | February 7, 2010 9:54 AM | Report abuse

I like that 15%.

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 7, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Tuesday evening flight delays look like a fairly high probability right now, but the heaviest precipitation from this next event looks to be later at night at least (toward midnight and beyond). But still think you may have an "Aaaargh" on your hands dustygroundhog. We'll continue to track the timing of this one.

Posted by: MattRogers | February 7, 2010 10:08 AM | Report abuse

Sweet Lord, MORE?!?! I can't take this anymore. My body is worn. Any insights for 'south and east' (as in Prince William, Fairfax) when you get a better handle on this next event would be appreciated.

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 7, 2010 10:47 AM | Report abuse

12z NAM shows 5-10" for DC
12z GFS shows 10-12" with possible mixing

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 7, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

Bring on another 2 feet!!! The good thing is that many people (construction workers and landscapers who are usually off in the winter) push snow and make extra money during this time.

Here is a video of road conditions in Leesburg this morning.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipB9Cmr86uY

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 7, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

In a typical DC winter this type of event usually hits places north and east, but the trend on models has been to bring the upper low south a bit. I'm sort of amazed how gung ho the models are going now. The GFS prints out almost 1.5" of liquid for DCA this run! Looks like a legit shot at a blizzard for someone, would lean northeast still on that part.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

They ought to design metro tracks that can be heated after the storm to melt the snow, or design those cables mentioned to lay down on the tracks and get the snow melted enough for the tractors to do the job. I need my Orange Line above ground!

Posted by: Georgetowner1 | February 7, 2010 12:46 PM | Report abuse

like Roberto Duran said to Sugar Ray Leonard years ago, 'no mas', or 'Snow Mas' to be more accurate. Mother nature should give us a break to shovel out before she dumps more snow on us.

Posted by: ErnestStalder | February 7, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Georgetowner1, I feel your pain. I was really hoping the Yellow line would be running so I could get out of Huntington and to my friends' Super Bowl party.

Posted by: Melewen | February 7, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Snowfeakingway!

Posted by: rcupps | February 7, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Shoveling roofs - is this something that those of us with normal-pitched (~30 degree slope) roofs should be concerned about, especially with another round of snow incoming?? Would love some advice about this.

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | February 7, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Have not seen a plow since early Saturday morning. Subdivision road impossible for anything but 4X4s. Lots of neighbors helping neighbors in the big dig....that's encouraging.
We need to make room after all for the 8 more inches coming Tuesday night.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 7, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Ian, after spending three hours digging myself out of Snomageddon, I can honestly saay I am about to scream SNOMORE! My body isn't going to be able to recover by Wednesday in order to dig myself out yet again.

I am about to hock my first born (oh wait, I don't have a first born) for a snow blower at this point....


Kim in Snow-freakin-Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | February 7, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

5-10+ inches? 2-3 I can deal with, but I really have nowhere (and I mean NOWHERE) to put snow anymore.

Posted by: HokieTerp | February 7, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse

I know those of you tired of snow will not be happy to hear the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our region for Tuesday night & Wednesday!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

Saw this headline on a "Climategate" web site: "Thirty inches of Global Warming heading to DC"

Posted by: dcmowbray1 | February 7, 2010 3:39 PM | Report abuse

Global Warming? Laugh out loud.

Posted by: HolyMoley | February 7, 2010 4:26 PM | Report abuse

Global warming is a real misnomer. The whole planet doesn't get warmer. What really happens is that some part of the globe gets warmer (say, Pacific Ocean currents), resulting in more moisture streaming into the cold air somewhere else (say, over Maryland), causing Snowmageddon (and in a few days, Snowmageddon 2: The Sleetquel - which is never as good as the original).

But why worry about Global Warming. There's more imminent danger to worry about, like the end of the Mayan Long Count Calendar on 11/06/2012.

Posted by: GreenMeansGo | February 7, 2010 4:29 PM | Report abuse

The Winter storm Watch for DCA is probably over a pre caution and there is a decent chance that over northeast VA and eastern MD this snow could change over to rain.

The 12z CMC / GFS are all too far south with the Upper Low... and the odds are good that this feature will NOT track into central VA.

The 18z GFS has the 500 Low track over my locations in Richmond VA.

No way.

If the 500mb Low does not track that far south then the snow or whatever falls will be much less

Posted by: wxrisk | February 7, 2010 5:21 PM | Report abuse

I need to fly out of DCA on Wednesday afternoon. HAVE to get out of town. Cannot figure out how worried I should be that my flight will be canceled.

Posted by: jaf13 | February 7, 2010 6:02 PM | Report abuse

Global Warming? Laugh out loud.

Actually, global extremes is more like it. And we are seeing the early returns. Only people who are Limbaugh dittoheads deny the extremes we are starting to see in our climate. But those who get their science from Rush and their theology from Ann Coulter can't be expected to actually think.

Posted by: faygokid | February 7, 2010 6:02 PM | Report abuse

S-NO-W WAY!!!!

Posted by: luvtheskins428 | February 7, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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