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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 02/19/2010

Monday storm trending less snowy, more rainy

By Capital Weather Gang

* Finally, weather takes a weekend off: CWG's Full Forecast *
* Who coined 'Snowmageddon'? | Photos: D.C. makes snow history *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Monday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 35%

The sick-of-snow crowd is probably ready to change the name of this feature to "Snow Hater's Crystal Ball." This time, though, the news is trending in a friendlier direction for those tired of the white stuff.

Computer models have come into pretty good agreement that low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley will take an inland track west and then northwest of the D.C. area on Monday. That is not a track conducive to much snow here. So, while there's a 50/50 chance the precipitation may begin briefly as snow early Monday, it is likely to change to a wintry mix and eventually rain. In fact, the change to rain could happen rather quickly if the low passes far enough to our west.

Keep reading for more analysis and our latest snow accumulation probabilities...

The initial area of low pressure may spawn a secondary one off the coast of the Carolinas, which could keep precipitation chances going through Monday night and possibly into early Tuesday. But as of now, it doesn't appear the second system would be strong enough to pull enough cold air down from the north to change precipitation back to snow or even a mix.

Still some time for things to change with all this. But here are our latest snow accumulation probabilities:

65%: Less than 1"
20%: 1-3"
10%: 3-6"
5%: 6"+

By Camden Walker and Dan Stillman

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Capital Weather Gang  | February 19, 2010; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Finally, no weekend weather worries
Next: 'Snowmageddon' name traced back to CWG reader


How much rain what is the flooding outlook?

Posted by: drewbird911 | February 19, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

Not so keen on making rain amount predictions yet, mainly b/c of track uncertainty. If the initial low tracks closer to us than currently projected, and if the secondary low throws back a llittle more moisture than anticipated at the moment, then an inch or a little more isn't out of the question. But with the track a good bit to our west, as it looks now, we'd probably be looking at under an inch (possibly well under an inch). Even in the juicier scenario, probably not enough rain to cause anything more than minor flooding concerns.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 19, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

came home for lunch and saw a beautiful thing - tree branches now ending the air, no longer caught up in a snow bank, footprints on my front walkway now melted to the pavement

some of you enjoy watching this awful white business fall, I get the same feeling watching it melt

Posted by: TGT11 | February 19, 2010 12:09 PM | Report abuse

Looks like a decent forecast in that it means no more snowcover and not enough rain to cause serious flooding issues along with water in people's homes.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 19, 2010 12:10 PM | Report abuse


Me too! I caught myself just this morning staring at a strip of grass beside my driveway that had become "unsnowcovered". It was like seeing an eclipse. (tounge in cheek, obviously)

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 19, 2010 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Grr "tongue" in cheek. Darn fat fingers.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 19, 2010 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Boo for little to no snow.

Here's my take on it: We've got all spring and summer for sunshine, rain and the oppressive humidity. And we may not get another snow season like this for years to come. Accumulating snow, which has been a rare occurrence around here until recently, is worthy of celebration!

Posted by: Rcmorgan | February 19, 2010 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Boo to this. Nothing would be better than rain. Snow or nothing I say.

Posted by: ah___ | February 19, 2010 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Rain is bad news...Monday/Tuesday is the big Gottaswing dance period...I haven't been able to get to these dances for over two weeks because the regular Ballston-bound Metrobuses on Route 25A/25B are not showing up at 8th Road S. & Carlin Springs when they're supposed to between 8 & 9 PM...wonder what's happening...are these buses still running on some snow-emergency route or whatever???..or are they cancelling late-evening runs???...sounds as though GM Catoe might be making some of his precious "service cuts" while at the same time Metro keeps whining about losing fare revenue & being unable to meet its budget...seems to me they're not losing quite so much money if the trains & buses aren't running.

My opinion is that this area needs a reliable & efficient public-transit system that's better able to repond to weather now most of the
Arlington County ART buses are up and running...only traffic issues are delaying ART 41 runs.

I have a dance tonight but can leave early enough in the evening to get the ART 75 bus to Ballston...snowbanks are beginning to get smaller. There are still quite a few snowed-in sidewalks, especially along Columbia Pike.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 19, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

BTW Temps Monday are supposed to stay in the thirties...ought to favor "mix" rather than boring old rain...forties would tend to favor rain.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 19, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

CWG, i agree with the rain forecast. Here is my question - what are the chances of significant snow melt(not flooding but melting of the snow cover)? Or do you think most of the rain will be absorbed by the snow pack, potentially creating more problems later in March?

Posted by: mciaram1 | February 19, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

What about next Thursday-Friday? The GFS seems to suggest the development of a costal low. The 850MB looks very cold. The NWS service expects an "unsettled period" after Wednesday but does not elaborate. Any thoughts?

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 19, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

@ntrisol...excellent next weekend could throw some more heavy snow this way...woohoo!!

To be honest, I am definitely concerned about flooding Mon & Tues. Better to be prepared than not! Easy to prepare by cleaning gutters, downspouts and freeing a path for the water to escape. I had to dig a channel to the street for the low lying areas to allow drainage.

Posted by: GMorg11 | February 19, 2010 12:46 PM | Report abuse

:( Rain and No Snow? Today's my bday and I was a least hoping I could be anticipating some snow if not having some of my own. Any realistic hope for next week?

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 19, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse


Yes, I am much more concerned about rain and possible flooding! I would much rather have a couple of more inches of snow than a 1/2" of rain (not that I am saying we will get that much rain). Still everyone needs to prepare.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 19, 2010 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Die, snow gods, die.

Not another flake this winter, please.

Posted by: Gunga2009 | February 19, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Too early to discuss storm late next week, but CWG remains vigilant. We are watching it! we'll report on it when it becomes more of a real possibility.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 19, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

With the continued gradual melt of snow through the weekend, the likelihood that Monday's precipitation shouldn't be that heavy, and as temperatures during the rain will probably be in the 30s to low 40s, the risk of significant flooding does not seem that high.

We have seen some of the guidance suggesting a possible coastal storm late Wed into Thurs and will keep an eye on that. Way, way too soon to make any calls on that may not even happen.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 19, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

Is this damn wind ever going to stop? I'm REALLY tired of fighting the 40-mph winds every day.

Posted by: HenryFPotter | February 19, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring, you said,
"I caught myself just this morning staring at a strip of grass beside my driveway that had become "unsnowcovered".

you remind me of my dog! i just let him out back and he struggled through all the deep snow to find a patch of bare ground. he seemed quite pleased....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 19, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

@manassasmissy: Happy Birthday!

Off to dig some drainage channels around the house. A post yesterday pointed out that there is about 4"+/- of water within the snow pack covering the area. Yipe. Here's to a gradual melt-off.

Posted by: dprats21 | February 19, 2010 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Bring on big fluffy flakes-my favorite kind of snow.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 19, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

I like that 5%.

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 19, 2010 2:39 PM | Report abuse

+1 on the wind. How many days of these winds have we had now this week?

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 19, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

I'm caught between rooting for snow and being perfectly content with some rain.

Posted by: nlcaldwell | February 19, 2010 3:04 PM | Report abuse

One April morning during my first year of college in Ithaca, New York, I noticed that things looked strange when I left my took me a minute to realize that the white blanket of snow had become so familiar that I barely recognized grass. I expect I'll have a similar experience this year...hopefully earlier than April.

Posted by: mojo_rising_71 | February 19, 2010 4:31 PM | Report abuse

Snow Hater's Information Thoroughfare.

Posted by: Hendo1 | February 19, 2010 7:03 PM | Report abuse

Please stop the wind, it has once again kept me from fishing the 301 Bridge. Haven't been able 2 go since Feb 1. Mon will be a mostly rain event, with system staying west it will pull warm air aloft. Hopefully temps will stay above 32 2 avoid freez. rain. Enough with the wind.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 19, 2010 9:19 PM | Report abuse

Don't keep complaining about the constant wind, people. The sunshine, temps in the high 30's/low 40s and the dry wind are EXACTLY what we need for a slow, controlled melting and evaporation. We couldn't have asked for any better weather the last few days. Too much heat right now, and not enough wind, would lead to flooding.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | February 19, 2010 11:48 PM | Report abuse

I like that 5% too.

Posted by: mlipin | February 20, 2010 1:25 AM | Report abuse

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