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Posted at 11:05 AM ET, 02/ 9/2010

Next storm closes in; no change in forecast

By Capital Weather Gang

Snoverkill's worst impacts expected tonight & tomorrow

2:10 p.m. Update: Radar is still pretty quiet around the region. However, precipitation should blossom by late afternoon or evening. As we mentioned earlier, any precipitation through afternoon should be on the light side and looks to be scattered, with not much accumulation until after sunset. Next full update between 3 and 4 p.m.

*** Latest accumulation map, storm timeline and FAQs ***

* Winter Storm Warning thru Wed for entire metro area (map) *
* New! Storm Q&A transcript | Snowmageddon's incredible output *
* Making history? | Watch out for ice dams | Top 5 driving hazards *
* Power outage maps for Dominion Electric | Pepco | BG&E *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There *

We know there are some widely divergent accumulation forecasts out there, and depending on where you are in the metro area. But as of the latest information coming in this morning, we are staying pat with our forecast of 6" to 16" for the metro area (see our accumulation map to see what part of that range applies to your location). We expect the highest amounts to be north and east of D.C. toward Baltimore.


The calm before the next storm at the National Cathedral yesterday afternoon. By CWG photographer Ian Livingston.

Now through tomorrow: We still expect snow, or a snow/sleet mix for D.C. and points south and east, to begin from southwest to northeast over the next several hours. But precipitation should be on the light side to start, possibly moderate at times, and may be scattered, so accumulation by sunset should be around an inch or less. The heaviest precipitation is expected this evening through tomorrow morning, and may not taper until later in the afternoon. Strong winds tomorrow are likely to down trees and power lines, so widespread power outages are quite possible.

Uncertainties: The models we use to help guide our forecasts are not in as much agreement as for the last storm. With that in mind, there's still some uncertainty to the forecast. Here are our accumulation probabilities as they stand now:

25%: Less than 6"
35%: 6-10"
30%: 10-16"
10%: 16"+

(Again, accumulations are likely to be toward the higher end north and east of D.C. and lower south and west.)

Stay tuned for more updates later today.

By Capital Weather Gang  | February 9, 2010; 11:05 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts, Updates  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Fierce winter storm to sock region
Next: Snoverkill beginning to arrive

Comments

About to head home from work. Walking from Dupont to Capital Hill because Metro was more of a pain than it was worth.

Posted by: buckwheaton1 | February 9, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Thanks to everybody at CWG! This is all making my planning much much easier.

Stay safe and enjoy the snow; it's going to fall whether we love it or hate it, so might as well enjoy.

Posted by: waltraud82 | February 9, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

You guys have mentioned sleet a few times - given all of the unplowed streets, do you expect it to freeze into ice under any eventual snow accumulation? Thanks!

Posted by: gulickr | February 9, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

CWG: What kind of snow do you expect in the immediate metro area? Wet heavy icy stuff, or dry powdery fluffy stuff?

Posted by: InVA1 | February 9, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

@InVA1 The question about wet, heavy vs. drier snow is really important. It could be like the last one; wetter at first, drier later, but let's see what CWG says.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 11:12 AM | Report abuse

BOOOO! We want 2 feet!

Posted by: Langway4Eva | February 9, 2010 11:12 AM | Report abuse

Just drove down Rockville Pike to get some supplies, including diapers. Anyway, its a mess still. I have the benefit of having my dad's 4x4 pickup truck with big snow tires. And having grown up driving in this kind of slop. But 12-18 inches on top of what there is now will be nearly a Disaster. Parking lots are already probably 20-30% down on capacity due to piles of snow. The pike is down to 1 thru lane in places. NOBODY seems to have it sunk in yet that another round of this could be a real, real crisis.

Anyway, cutting some lumber to brace the old rafters in part of my attic in hopes of handling the load a little better. And spoke to a structural engineer yesterday. Called my insurance company...ny damage from snow weight is a covered loss. Woo hoo!

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 9, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

@InVA1

I'd say JerryFloyd1 is right on the money -- pretty wet to start, but fluffier later in the storm.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

I have to go from Reston to Leesburg around 4:00, and I'll be returning around 6:30. Will I beat most of the snow? And which route is likely to be safer, 267 or Rte. 7?

Thanks, CWG!

Posted by: kersl | February 9, 2010 11:16 AM | Report abuse

Thank you, thank you! It's fun to contemplate interesting weather, but your measured predictions and reporting are extremely helpful and appreciated.

Posted by: collinc1 | February 9, 2010 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Re: sleet-- don't think there will be a lot of sleet (maybe just some mixing from downtown and S&E), and sleet tends to be granular and not as difficult to drive on as freezing rain.

Snow consistency-- Any snow falling through midnight will be wetter. After midnight and during the day Wednesday, expect it to become more powdery

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 11:18 AM | Report abuse

Believe it or not, we've been planning to spend Valentine's Day in DC for a while now. The timing of this ongoing snow accumulation is unfortunate, but I appreciate the information on this site.

I used to live in DC, but my girlfriend has never been. We have the option to cancel our tickets and go another time, but the pictures I'm seeing are just beautiful. I really wanted to take her on some of the government tours, as well as the obligatory Smithsonian visits, but from what I've read, things are shut down. Also, I'm guessing the Metro is hell right now, and that was going to be our only method of transportation (aside from walking).

Should we still come, or better to just cut our losses and rebook for a later date? I want her first experience in DC to be a positive one.

Posted by: averacruz | February 9, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Just started snowing here in Frederick - is this an unexpected early start. We have a doctors appt for the baby at 1pm in walkersville, I hope we have no problem driving back.

Posted by: tangleword | February 9, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

P.S. We're supposed to be there Thursday a.m. - Sunday p.m.

Posted by: averacruz | February 9, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

@kersl

You may have to deal with some light snow around that time. If you're used to driving in it, you'll be ok. Not sure about Rt. 7 vs 267...depends which is in better shape now. Maybe one of our Va. readers can help you out.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

averacruz - I'd say get here if you can. The snow is really pretty. Things ought to be much better by the weekend anyway.

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 9, 2010 11:27 AM | Report abuse

WRC dropped their estimates slightly, to 10-15" based on possible overnight mixing. That's what happened around (with sleet) in some parts of the immediate metro area last time.

They've also reduced the area that will get 10-15", bringing it further north towards DC.

The mixing part really bothers me, esp. if the mix includes freezing rain. With more and more structural problems we absolutely do not need freezing rain.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 11:28 AM | Report abuse

Thanks! You guys are really tremendous with all your blogging, forecasting,and advice to us!

Posted by: kersl | February 9, 2010 11:29 AM | Report abuse

@averacruz I'd cancel. If this storm is on the higher ends, DC will be crippled. Wait until for the cherry blossom festival.

Posted by: allisondt | February 9, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

averacruz, if I were you I'd wait for spring and try to time it so your girlfriend can see the cherry blossoms.

Posted by: ArlingtonGay | February 9, 2010 11:31 AM | Report abuse

@kersl 267's likely to be in better shape. Greenway was in surprisingly good condition shortly after Snowpocalypse v2.0 this weekend. Should be less stop-and-go with no traffic traffic lights, meaning (ideally) easier driving conditions in general anyway.

Posted by: map408 | February 9, 2010 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Here's another thing...many of the news reports around here are wrongly reporting the snow weight on things.
Lets assume during the last snowfall 2.5 inches of water was tied up in the snow. and 1/2 of it stayed on your roof, vs blowing off. Not a far stretch really. 1.25 inches of water weighs 6.45 pounds per square foot.
Now lets say you actually got 3 feet, at ratios of 10 to 1. That's 3.6 inches of water. That weights 18.6 pounds per square foot. Not 25 or 50. The news bozos are not doing their math. Still, 18.6 is getting up close enough to 20psf that its time to worry a little. New roofs around here should be rated for 30psf. Who knows what got put into mcmansions around here. And all those complicated roof lines make a field day for ice dams.

I urge people to poke their head up into their attic if they can and look for deflection in rafters. But don't necessarily climb into the attic, as in some cases that can place additional loads on framing. Watch for cracks at the top corners on outside walls. Listen for noises.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 9, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

@kersl Take 267. My wife said 267 and 270 were the only two roads she's felt comfortable on today so far. I heard 7 and 50 are tricky...my neighbor (not a shy driver) said she had to go about 25mph on 7 and 50 (don't know which parts but near Reston).

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 11:40 AM | Report abuse

Thought of a few more (sorry if I'm repeating some already done before!):

Snownihilation
Snominous
Snowtastrophe
Snowlocaust

Posted by: diana_prince | February 9, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

Speaking of WRC, Tom has the Shenandoah Valley dropped back to 5-10 other than closer to Winchester, where we are still 10-15. How does that math sound to you guys? I'm looking at the possibility of being displaced a couple of nights if it's on the high end, but if the lower figure verifies, I'd try to get back here tonight...

Posted by: ValleyCaps | February 9, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

At this rate, the Cherry Blossoms will bloom in May.

/joke
/not a horticulturist

Posted by: Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom | February 9, 2010 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Thanks for the suggestions...267 it will be!

Posted by: kersl | February 9, 2010 11:42 AM | Report abuse

@kers1 .. Just spoke to Mom. She said that 7 is clear and down to the black. She has not been on 267, but did note that since it's more open ... if the winds are bad you might prefer to be on 7.

Granted 7 has stop lights, but you'll also likely see more cars / help if needed and more compact.

Be safe.

Posted by: aquarnnr | February 9, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

I've just picked up a trace so far from "The Storm Previously Known as Snow" and we're in a lull before the next wave comes in.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 9, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

I love that..."dropped back to" 5-10 inches. any other year that would be really something.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 9, 2010 11:53 AM | Report abuse

I've a new motto.

Virginia: The Snow Me state.

Posted by: JakeD3 | February 9, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

Sorry to change the subject but I wanted to share something my better half observed while we were walking the neighborhood streets.

The people who have shoveled their driveway did the entire thing.

But she said, why not park your car at the end of the driveway, and that way, you just have to shovel a path and then behind the car or front if you backed in.

Brilliant!


Posted by: jaybird926 | February 9, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse

Latest cherry flowering is aoa Tax time [Apr. 15] as I recall.

I'm surprised...that Gottaswing is NOT cancelling their dances, despite reduced public transit. Problem is thirty-minute spacing between trains plus little or no bus service. It was bad enough that Metro's GM was proposing this as a "cost-cutting" measure to begin with. The issue is that when I'm out I want to spend most of my time at the dance and not in the Metro system.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 9, 2010 11:59 AM | Report abuse

I have a relative scheduled to land at DCA around 1800 Thursday. She asked if she should bring snow supplies. I told her to watch the weather and that if we got more than 10 inches to not even bother. She would have a better time if she flew to Haiti.

Posted by: oldtimehockey | February 9, 2010 12:01 PM | Report abuse

You all are going to have a 100-year spring. It's coming, don't worry.

Enjoy!

Posted by: FormerSubscriber | February 9, 2010 12:01 PM | Report abuse

Has anyone seen accumulation estimates for tonight? How much in DC by 8:00, 10:00, midnight?

Trying to decide if I want to try to make it to part of Trey Anastasio at the 9:30 Club tonight (with the drive back to Silver Spring when I leave being the tricky part...)

Posted by: gmbo | February 9, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Temp right at freezing.
Attempt to leave neighborhood for supplies was a failure.
It took us a very long & dangerous time to navigate around a stuck tractor trailer in an intersection. The main road was in much WORSE shape than what we saw yesterday afternoon when Mr Sunshine was out.
Lots of vehicles in trouble. We didn't want to turn into one of them, so we circled around & are back in the bunker.
Any guilt that I've been feeling for not attempting the commute into work today has been purged.
LOTR trilogy anyone?


Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 9, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

any comments on if there's change to the strength and/or position of the coastal low?

Posted by: spankyman111 | February 9, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

@jaybird926

If one puts one's car at the end of the driveway, one misses the ability to keep the car warm and dry in one's garage.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 9, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

channel 9 just dropped their forecast to 8-16....

Posted by: davis_renee | February 9, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

@jaybird926:

We used to do that in New England... Was much easier to shovel a path for a person from the house to the car than a path for the car all the way to the street.

Posted by: salf | February 9, 2010 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Bright sunshine here in Charlottesville. Really having doubts about this whole thing for us; not sure about DC.

Posted by: cvilleSnowMan | February 9, 2010 12:16 PM | Report abuse

@jaybird926 - Except of course when it's going to keep snowing, so then you have to keep clearing off 5-10-24-36 inches of snow off your car each time. And if the plows end up throwing snow into your drive, you risk your car then being entombed in the plow mess depending on how far down you leave it. Rather have the car clean and available in the garage - and be able to get a running start OUT of the garage if needed to get over some snow.

Posted by: nocando | February 9, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

@jaybird926

That works, but be very careful that you are clear of any plows that may try to come through. I grew up in New England also, and I have to say plow drivers here are amatures at best working with equipment which is not meant for this amount of snow/ice. You'll have to make the call whether it's better to shovel and protect your vehicle, or stick your nose out and save your back... so to say.

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | February 9, 2010 12:25 PM | Report abuse

Fine snowflakes have been falling here in Frederick, MD for a while, and they're coming down steadily. Say light-to-moderate rate. Can't really see if they're sticking, but with a temperature well above freezing, it might be a little while until accumulation begins.

Posted by: dettiot | February 9, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

channel 9 just dropped their forecast to 8-16....

Posted by: davis_renee | February 9, 2010 12:05 PM
_______________________________________

Same predictions NOAA made. Go to the website...you'll see

Posted by: cbmuzik | February 9, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Snowing pretty steady in Hagerstown - looks like a little blip of energy in our area. Looking at the different forecast maps still looks like we could get a little bit of that higher total, right?

Posted by: bendersx6 | February 9, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

I was also thinking of parking the car till 10pm tonight. But I hurt my back trying to scrape the ice of the front of my driveway. I just thought if I could remove that last piece of ice I will be more peaceful :(

My plan right now is to park the car in the garage and pay the kids who show up in the neighborhood with shovels and get them shovel the driveway. Where will they dump all the snow we are supposed to get today/tomorrow is a totally different story.

Posted by: RoseVA | February 9, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhlSy95Bgvc

The last storm in 30 seconds.

Posted by: keithrjackson | February 9, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

CWG, what's your school cast for Woodbridge tomorrow? Need to know how much homework to do for class.

Posted by: SpeedLimit186000 | February 9, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Firedragon47, that is what I'm hearing also. Neighbor went into work and said Braddock was awful. I have to walk over to check on some friends' cats and considered walking up to Giant just to get out of the house. Don't really need anything, but for folks who do, what a mess.

I am totally with you on the work thing. I'm just glad I no longer work for an employer that says, "Well...we'd really encourage you to come in to work, if you can possibly make it." No more guilt trips for me. My big boss just says, "Good luck shoveling, sucks to be you - you have a laptop and blackberry if I need to find you." Ah, being treated like an adult - truly pleasant.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 9, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

@ cbmuzik - NOAA has Reston, VA at 10"-20" still...I'm not buying that.

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

@CWG

Could someone translate this?? It sounds like snow into Thursday maybe...

"A
PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY."

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | February 9, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Moco Schools are closed all week now

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 9, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Partial sun in Spotsy., temp has gone from 24 at 10:00 to 33. B surpised 2 c any snow by 5 pm.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 9, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

@ Alexandira2009: Hopefully, that upslope you are talking about is on the other side of the Alleghey front, in places like Garrett County, and the West Virginia counties that Sterling forecasts for. That's not an unusual pattern over there, the mountains squeeze out all of the snow before it can get to the Shenandoah Valley and closer in suburbs

Posted by: ValleyCaps | February 9, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

WOW, I just looked up the forecast for Reston, VA on NBC4.com....3"-6"...holy back-peddling!

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Upslope snows only apply to the far western mountain ranges - Garrett County, etc. After storms or fronts they frequently get band of additional snows. Nothing here.

Posted by: bendersx6 | February 9, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

I just took a long walk from east baltimore to downtown...the roads here are still REALLY bad. I cant imagine what we're going to do with more snow. At least the city is starting to get backhoes out to some of the narrow streets to clear away the snow...

Posted by: bachaney | February 9, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

re roofs failing:
as a residential architect i can say that AndrewRockville's post at February 9, 2010 11:37 AM is correct.

we would need over 5' of this kind of snow to approach the design snow loads for roofs. furthermore, while 30psf (pounds per square foot) is the figure we calculate when designing roofs, the roof WILL NOT suddenly fail if loaded with 30psf.... there are safety factors and rather than collapse, your roof would begin to deflect (bend) and would continue to do so for a long time (and distance) before it actually collapsed.

the problems, i suspect, will be along the lines of ice dams, gutters falling off, leaks, trees falling on roofs and so forth.

i can't explain the bailey's x-roads fire department collapse - the part of the structure that failed there was only 12 yrs old or so (it was a flat roof). other collapses have been "long span" structures like that ice rink and the plane hangar.

if you live around here and your house was built (properly) since say 1950 or so, you probably have more chance of drowning in a hurricane than having your roof collapse because of snow.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 12:52 PM | Report abuse

I see... the thing that concerns me is that the target area is more to the east...

Target Area: Highland
Warren
Clarke
Rappahannock
Loudoun
Orange
Culpeper
Prince William, Manassas, Manassas Park
Fairfax
Arlington, Falls Church, Alexandria
Stafford
Spotsylvania
King George
Northern Fauquier
Southern Fauquier

http://www.weather.gov/alerts-beta/wwacapget.php?x=VA20100209140200LWXWinterStormWarningLWX20100211000000VA

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | February 9, 2010 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Doubting snow Thomases, check out the Mosaic radar at
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

There is some nasty stuff to the west and south of here. We'll get something. Maybe not Snowmageddon II but there will be a storm and it's apt to get rough tomorrow.

One other link, today's Washington Post article about DCA snow totals ("District Falls Far Short of Region's Official Snow Count"):
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

The NWS meteorologist's explanation of why they have to keep using DCA (in effect, "we've always done it that way and moving will mess up our record keeping") is beyond lame. So many D.C. bureaucrats blow smoke and think people buy into their vapor.

Bob Ryan is quoted in the Post article as saying the measurements should be taken elsewhere (i.e., the Smithsonian Castle). Whether you agree with Ryan's suggestion, kudos to him for speaking up. Thank you, Mr. Ryan!

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 12:53 PM | Report abuse

OOOPS, wrong Wash Post link in my 12:53 post.

Should be http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/08/AR2010020803559.html

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Just started snowing lightly in Columbia. Howard County schools closed for the rest of the week.

Posted by: mickb1 | February 9, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Hey CapWx Staff:

My flight from London, England tomorrow is supposed to land at 7:40pm. What is the timeline on the snow ending? If Dulles can keep at least one runway open, they will bring in international flights. Just wondering what you think when the precip will end and what the winds will be like around that time. Thanks.

Posted by: johnnyd2 | February 9, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Am I the only one who isn't seeing crap on the radar? Granted, I'm a little spoiled after the last one, but seriously, what's up?

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 9, 2010 1:02 PM | Report abuse

The upslope snow refers to snowfall in the Appalachians due to a relatively moist/unstable northwesterly air flow. That snow will be good news for skiers, but won't have an affect on the DC metro area.

We're not looking for a mix with freezing rain, so if you're worried about that, don't be.

And yes, the other forecast outlets seem to be backpeddling on their accumulation forecasts, largely because they went 'all in' last night. You'll remember that we resisted that move yesterday, because we weren't confident enough that the high totals would verify. Either that or we're stubborn, but in a good way ;)

There is still considerable uncertainty with this event, and it will be interesting to see how close to DC the higher end totals wind up. A lot will depend on exactly where the coastal low intensifies. Stay tuned...

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

I don't "get" the consternation that several readers have expressed about having DCA as the point for official NWS measurement of snow totals.

People seem to be seeing snow totals as some kind of bragging rights for the region. And bragging to whom, I wonder? A big snowstorm is a big snowstorm is a big snowstorm. If streets are dicey to drive, if there are roof collapses due to the weight of snow, if houses go without power because of downed trees/ powerlines, it doesn't matter what DCA reports vis-a-vis neighboring places. It is a serious enough problem for all of us as citizens, for private businesses and for the government to deal with. What I don't get is this weird psychosis that some posters have, which is that we want to be known as the biggest, baddest ever.

Get a life, guys. The reporting totals don't matter. The impact matters. And the impact of the Blizzard of 2010 has been worse than the Snowpocalypse. Irrespective of what the totals say.

Posted by: krishnanswamy | February 9, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Andrew!

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | February 9, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Is it me or is the Low Pressure system in Florida sucking moisture from the one that is supposed to impact us and "blow up" over Baltimore and Philly? Once we get dry slotted, are we done, or will it pick up for a bit a couple hours later? This radar doesn't seem to bode well for snow lovers.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Now mostly sunny in Spotsy, blue sky now visible. Temp cont. 2 go up, 34.3.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 9, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

andrew (CWG),
indeed, those other forcasters are coming back to you guys - and even going below in some cases - 3-6" from bob ryan....sheesh...

what would have to happen for this storm to "blow up" on us and give us the higher-end accumulations? is there anything i can do to help with that?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Many thanks to walter-in-fallschurch for the roof info. Any thoughts on a flat-roofed, century-old rowhouse in Baltimore's Federal Hill section? We have family there and are concerned.
Great work on the consensus forecasting, CWG. We're all in this together..

Posted by: Hoyas4Ever | February 9, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

When does the next model come out? Or to ask another way - what are the times of the day when models are released?

Posted by: shackleton | February 9, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

People are seeing major gaps in the radar ... but the storm isn't supposed to be here yet guys...

the term "dry slotted" is with respect to the precipitation coming from the coastal low, correct? If dry slotting were to occur, it would be like 12 hours from now, right?

Posted by: markinva2 | February 9, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

If I'd know the temps were going to hit the mid 30's with no wind, I would have gone striper fishing at the 301 Bridge. Beginning 2 think this may be closer 2 a nonevent, unsnowverkill.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 9, 2010 1:13 PM | Report abuse

@ SpeedLimit- do your homework no matter what! That's why you are a student, right? :-)

I would anticipate all school districts being closed the rest of the week- as per Loudoun and Montgomery.

There's too much snow/ice packed to the roads, not enough plows, and the chance of risking student lives is more than the counties can take- imo.

I'd put up online activities for my students to complete, but there's no mandate for them to do them.

Posted by: aquarnnr | February 9, 2010 1:14 PM | Report abuse

Hypocalypse 2010

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 9, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

@gmbo I'm trying to do the same thing but with metro. Hoping the trains don't close early or else it's going to be a long way back to Arlington.

Any word on if metro will close early again tonight?

Posted by: gony4983 | February 9, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Where's the snow?!?!?!?! Can't wait for more snow!!!

Posted by: gjjg4dgd | February 9, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

@FIREDRAGON47

Where in Centreville are you? In the Little Rocky Run neighborhood most roads are plowed and some blacktop is showing but a number have no real evidence of plowing and 3 to 4 inches of packed down snow/ice. Anything on top of that will not be pretty.

Posted by: CliftonJohn | February 9, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

walter- the coastal low would have to form in exactly the right place (at or below DC's latitude), and throw heavy snow bands all the way back into DC for us to get the high end totals. This storm is going to showcase our "nowcasting" skills as the coastal low takes shape and rapidly intensifies.

All you can do is think snow, but I have a feeling you shouldn't say you are doing that, because the snow-weary on this board may threaten you with bodily injury ;)

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 1:19 PM | Report abuse

cbs9 totally backing offjust now - actually sounds like we may get nothing.

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 1:20 PM | Report abuse

Hoyas4Ever, re roofs, you said,
"Any thoughts on a flat-roofed, century-old rowhouse in Baltimore's Federal Hill section? We have family there and are concerned."

well...those old ones are a bit more problematic. i'd GUESS that those row houses are relatively small and probably only have roof spans (the distance between bearing walls) on the order of 10 or 12 feet - and are therefore not a problem.

it's your long-span structures (hangars, auditoriums, churches) that will be prone to failure from snow loading. on the other hand, old buildings may be more likely to have "chronic" problems (termites, dryrot etc...) than new ones.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

My problems with recording DC snow totals at DCA... 1) it is not even IN DC!! 2) since DCA didnt exist in the 1800's when some of the storms occurred which we are comparing the recent storms to, it is really not a fair comparison. Ideally, we would have a location in DC, which we had recordings for since the founding of the city. Obviously that is too much to ask for. It is about more than bragging rights, but about having a representative measurement that is consistent and can be used to determine trends in the weather from year to year. It seems like it would be hard to tell if we are having more snow now than a century ago since the numbers are from different places.

Posted by: timdgoff | February 9, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Sun's about to come out in PW county! Could Snoverkill be a bust?

Posted by: teezee210 | February 9, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

still hoping my prayers for a bust are answered

not a met or weather expert, but happy to see all the snow in the midwest is above our latitude

Posted by: TGT11 | February 9, 2010 1:25 PM | Report abuse

Interesting indeed that most other forecasters are now reducing their estimates to what CWG had all along. We will see what happens as the storm develops, but I am definitely starting to regard this blog as the region's best source for weather information.

Posted by: lydgate | February 9, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

While Washington is at a stand still we in fly over country are working hard to increase business.. hurry before it melts.
Betty

Posted by: conservativeadvertisingcom | February 9, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

Wait... no snow?!? Say it aint so!!

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | February 9, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Sorry weatherpeople, I think you still have snowmageddon on the brain. This storm only looks like a few inches...

Posted by: mhammel22 | February 9, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

@Betty

There is an amazing amount of business here in the DC area, helping us have one of the more stable economies in the nation. The relationship between government and business here is very good. In my opinion.

Posted by: krosseel | February 9, 2010 1:29 PM | Report abuse

The trouble with 2 lows & the 1 in the Ohio Valley has 2 transfer its energy 2 the Coastal low, is a lot of times it dosen't happen as expected. The energy gets tranferred 2 far S or N, or never really fully occurs, it looks like the L 2 the W isn't transferring its energy 2 the coast. While we may get some snow, I'm really leaning 2 this being a much smaller accum. than expected. It looks like the L 2 the W is taking alot of its energy NE & the L off the coast is head out 2 sea, rather than up the coast. This is why I hate the 2 L scenerio, way 2 hard 2 predict correctly.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 9, 2010 1:29 PM | Report abuse

It seems like a couple of the meteorologist are drastically scaling back their snow total predictions. Personally, I think this is going to be a bust. I think we may get 2 -3 inches of snow in the DC metro area but nothing more.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Channel 9 just said 8"-16" for the metro area...that doesn't sound like nothing. Let's face it...even if we get only 4", the aftermath is not going to be pretty.

Posted by: paige_va | February 9, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

i agree, they are now calling it a "wind storm", my guess, very little snow, if any

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

i know what they showed, but Topper basically backed off to the point of calling it a "wind storm", is you heard him talk.

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

With the majority of the snow already above our latitude, I agree that it looks like a big bust coming...I'm dissapointed.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

@Hoyas4Ever
About roof worries, there's a nice article in the post today about this:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/09/AR2010020900922.html?wprss=rss_metro

The last line says something about the fellow interviewed hasn't seen any rowhouse collapsed under snow in 52 years. Most of the other points in the article were made by walter-in-fallschurch.

Posted by: DrMeglet | February 9, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

TGT11, you said,
"still hoping my prayers for a bust are answered"

i have often wondered how god deals with conflicting weather-request prayers....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

There sure are an awful lot of "bust" calls out there for a storm that hasn't even formed yet.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 1:34 PM | Report abuse

CNN giving a 5"-10" prediction for the DC area.

Posted by: letitsnow | February 9, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

@lydgate:

the problem is that most of the local tv mets rely on the nws and they predicted 10-20". granted, i'm pretty sure almost everyone relies on the computer models for anything much further out than nowcasting, but i think the best mets are the ones that can look at a model and say "i'm not sure i buy that just yet" and that you usually comes with "nowcasting" experience. i like that the cwg went low on this storm. miller b "type" storms are not normally big snow producers for dc. that said, i still think we could get a few inches here but i thought that 10-20" all along was VERY suspect.

Posted by: swishjobs | February 9, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Maybe if we all pray for snow, we will get at least 12." I'm going to be doing my patented snow dance....

Posted by: gjjg4dgd | February 9, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Still no new snow here in Alexandria, and the radar doesn't look too "busy" in this area at all. I thought we would have seen the flakes by now. CWG, any commentary on that? And also, thanks for all you do. Good work.

Posted by: truyle | February 9, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Waiting For Gosnow.

Posted by: DCU_Rick | February 9, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

@krishnanswamy: reporting DCA totals has nothing to do with bragging rights; it's simple consistency and representation. It makes no sense to report the area's total from the lowest point - it makes more sense to take it from the middle ground.

And I agree with timdgoff - at least take DC's measurement from somewhere in the city; Bob Ryan's suggestion of the Smithsonian castle makes sense on several levels.

Posted by: cvilleSnowMan | February 9, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

@ Brian

Didn't you know?...personal weather intuition and emotions are just as good a predicator as actual science :)

Posted by: voltron88x | February 9, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

Anyone want to tell me what that strange graphic up for Wednesday in the NWS' At Glance.

Posted by: crazer | February 9, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

@Brian -CWG

I think this is going to be a bust. I think the rain/sleet mix as well as the transition from the first storm to the other will change the outcome. Hence, I'm calling 3 inches maximum for the DC metro area.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

I am simultaneously praying for little or no snow while doing my anti-snow dance. It's a bit awkward.

Posted by: gimmegreen | February 9, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

You guys are all starting to sound like Firedude on the eve of snowmageddon. He doesn't come around here much anymore...

Posted by: snowedin85 | February 9, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

There is nothing to indicate a bust: a grand total of 1 model run of the NAM and GFS out of the last 4 for each showed under 10 inches. And that run still showed 7-10".

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 9, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Brian, I'm simply repeating what Topper actually said, almost a mea culpa for posting big numbers earlier and now calling it "wind storm"

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Great job CWG, yet again. All along you guys were skeptical of higher totals. And by the way, I think calls for bust are fair once the storm has been hyped; we don't need to wait for formation to call bust (because formation does not occur a lot of the time in bust scenarios).

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 9, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

The people calling for bust are many of the same ones who called Snowmageddon a bust when flakes didn't stick for several hours.

Just you wait.....

Posted by: ironmanjt | February 9, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Just returned from Safeway in Rosslyn. No milk. Many shelves almost empty. Fortunately, a delivery truck was pulling in as we left.

Posted by: djm-01 | February 9, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

CWG,

I just watched Henry Margusity's afternoon video. In it, he stated the low pressure coming from the Gulf of Mexico will become the predominate low and will strengthen while going up the coast. If this was the case, wouldn't that allow more cold air to be wrapped into the storm and thus giving us higher accumulation? I thought the new low would actually be forming somewhere near the Delmarva. What are your thoughts on this? Thanks!

Posted by: jcmcgrath1969 | February 9, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

LOL, PEOPLE!...why the constant "BUST" talk before each storm? This storm is still developing...the Coastal Low doesn't even exist yet! All some of us were saying earlier was that there's a lot of backpeddling on local TV broadcasts and the NWS...toward the CWG forecast...not NOTHING! This is still going to be what DC would typically consider to be moderate to significant accumulation snow!

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Where does Chantilly/South Riding fit into that map...could not tell if we fit into the 8 to 16 inches or 6 to 10?

Posted by: jennie129 | February 9, 2010 1:45 PM | Report abuse

Was at Whole Foods Arlington earlier, not a lot of people and fully stocked. thhat was about3 hrs ago tho.

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 1:46 PM | Report abuse

walter-in-fallschurch: you meant that the previous poster was NOT correct, right? Thanks for posting. I had been nervously eyeing the mountain of snow on our roof and tried to find a roof rake yesterday, but with no luck.

Posted by: mcfiddish | February 9, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

lol @ all the "bust" comments

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 9, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

Even though others are calling for less snow right now, I still have to go with CWG for accurate updates and predictions. They have been closer than anyone else given the recent snow totals. So, keep up the good work CWG, I enjoy the updates tremendously !

Posted by: letitsnow | February 9, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

CLIFTONJOHN
Mr & Ms firedragon47 live in Sully Station II townhouse community walking distance to Stone Road but no direct access. FYI Stone was in terrible shape this morning, but perhaps the plows & some feeble sunshine have helped soften it up some since then.
Have not seen anything with a blade (or salt, or sand) since very early Saturday morning.
Our little section of subdivision road is in much better shape (bare pavement sections from neighbor's enthusiasm with puny shovels in front of each driveway) than immediate county maintained roads! And that's not saying much. During our failed supply run we hadn't gone 100 yards before losing almost all traction.
We just need the power to stay on. If the power's not on then I can't watch radar. Or read CWG.
That would be very bad.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 9, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

For the record, I did not call Snowmagedon a bust. However, I'm of the opinion that this even will be a bust. When I write bust, I mean a maximum of 3 inches or less.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

Websites for ABC and NBC still have DC in the 10-15" range, with CBS at 8-16".

I'm thinking Gov't will be shut tomorrow, and possibly Thurs. (Hoping to keep getting snow leave while I have a cold, so I don't have to take real time off!)

Posted by: howellb1 | February 9, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Funny how all the so-called "snow lovers" on here show their true colors once we get a few decent snow storms...

I for one will be hoping for the maximum amount! BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!

Posted by: OMGPonies | February 9, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

In the noon Q&A, Jason Samenow asked readers to let him know if other areas name their storms. Here in North Dakota, the Grand Forks Herald has been naming blizzards based on hurricane-style system (start with A, work your way through the alphabet) since at least the severe winter of 1996-97. For example, our second blizzard this winter was named "Blizzard Brett", after Brett Favre-

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/01/blizzard_brett_midwest_dakotas.html

Thanks for all the great weather coverage. It's been interesting to see how the DC area and it's residents are coping with the snow. Hope everyone stays safe through the next round.

Posted by: leif_matthewson | February 9, 2010 1:53 PM | Report abuse

2 p.m. and I can see the threatening sun here in Adams Morgan.

This storm prediction is a bust, a dusting to a few inches.

That happens.

That's ok.

No complaints.

Posted by: smoke111 | February 9, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

I agree with the bust predictions and I normally don't make predictions. 3-5 most places, 5-10 in northeast MD.

Posted by: eric654 | February 9, 2010 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Everyone calling bust needs to just wait a few hours. Re-read CWG's forecast. They're saying (at most) an inch by sunset with the heavier stuff coming overnight and into tomorrow morning. Calling bust right now is jumping the gun a little.

If 10 or 11pm rolls around and there's nothing doing, then maybe calls for a BUST are warranted...until then we just wait and see.

Posted by: AlexandriaAnna | February 9, 2010 1:58 PM | Report abuse

@ smoke111 - The storm hasn't even hit the area yet...whether you like it or not you're getting more than a dusting. Sorry dude.

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

I've been in this area long enough to know that D.C. forecasters always have a tendency to go into hysterics over most winter snow, no matter how significant or insignificant. Moreover, my gut has a higher winning percentage vs. the D.C. forecasters....and yes my gut should be in the circus.

Posted by: mhammel22 | February 9, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, I think calling this a "bust" is extremely premature as of this writing. But I sure did expect it would have started by now.

Posted by: truyle | February 9, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

well the "bust" talk is warranted, but this is a tough forecast because it's predicated on a coastal low that hasn't quite formed yet. these are the toughest calls for us. to the non-weather people, the last couple storms were pure "miller A" storms out of the gulf. this is more like a miller B with redevelopment along the coast. should be interesting. it could be that close to the coast does better, so yea, bmore would do better than dc.

Posted by: swishjobs | February 9, 2010 2:01 PM | Report abuse

MAYFREE34: What are you talking about? CBS9 is still forecasting a major snow event -- not "nothing".

Posted by: stuckman | February 9, 2010 2:01 PM | Report abuse

All the bust folks are jumping the gun, saying that predictions have been reduced. They do this before each and every storm. Then I go to the websites and that's not the case.

Posted by: mickb1 | February 9, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Again, I'm talking about what Topper is saying, not what the graphics are showing.

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

C'mon 10%!! You can do it! Snovechkin awaits!

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 9, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

I guess 5-15 inches that CBS9 forecasts is a bust LOL

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 9, 2010 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Those of us snow lovers who are calling "bust" right now, such as myself, are simply doing so in hopes that more optimistic people will reassure us that we will infact get at the very least a decent snow out of this. Even I am tired of dealing with the snow, but when else am I going to ever see this area in such a state again? Probably never, so lets see how it looks with 3 feet on the ground. At this point I will be happy with 6 inches, or at least 5 where I live in north-central Fairfax County. Less than 5 is a bust, lol.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 2:06 PM | Report abuse

It really doesn't matter how much we get. it's going to be awful even if it's 5 inches...., and the winds are going to blow the snow all around.. tough situation..

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 9, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

mcfiddish,
well, no, AndrewRockville was right. he said 36" of snow weighs 18.6 lbs per square foot, and that roof are designed for 30 lbs per square foot. both are correct:

water weighs 62.4 pcf at 32 degrees. 1" water x 1' x 1' = 62.4/12 = 5.2. remember that's MELTED (qpf) snow. @ a 10:1 snow:liquid ratio, every 1" of snow weighs .52 lbs. like he said, if 36" of snow equals 36 x .52 = 18.7 lbs.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Again, I'm calling the predictions of 5-10 inches of snow a bust. At most, the DC area will get 3 inches.

On a slightly different topic, what's Topper's name? Lesli Foster of WUSA9 is gorgeous.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 2:11 PM | Report abuse

@cvilleSnowman:

I appreciate the need for consistency as much as the next person. But consistency w.r.t. what?

If we want to measure snow accumulations the same way as we have measured for the past 30-40 years, the answer would be to stay with DCA. If we want to measure the same way that Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo, Philadelphia measure it, I don't see the point of it.

And I don't really care whether the point of measurement is DC or Bethesda or Tysons Corner. The region is inter-connected enough and compact enough that measurements at any of these places are relevant for the full MSA region.

Posted by: krishnanswamy | February 9, 2010 2:13 PM | Report abuse

I saw Topper's report and there is a huge "if" in his forecast. It all will depends on where the coastal low forms. Until that happens its all guesswork.

Posted by: Tess89 | February 9, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

channel 9 just dropped their forecast to 8-16....

Posted by: davis_renee | February 9, 2010 12:05 PM

Yeah!!! Its a bust! Now, if I could get the U.S. bobsled team off my road long enough for a plow get throughm I could go to work. I'm assuming no power for awhile.

Posted by: oldtimehockey | February 9, 2010 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Tess, yes that's what I'm talking about...he's really covering himself now. No longer talking about snow, but wind

that tells me something!

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Not calling this a bust, but these type of set ups r very hard 2 predict. Based on 55 yrs of following the weather in this area,
most of the time these systems end up different than 4cast. It's just hard 2 know where & how strong the coastal L will b.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 9, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Frederick Cty schools in MD join Loudoun and Montgomery in closing for the remainder of the week.

Posted by: map408 | February 9, 2010 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Interesting NOAA satellite photo...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 9, 2010 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Just in case y'all have just been hitting the refresh key, new update at the top of this post:

2:10 p.m. Update: Radar is still pretty quiet around the region. However, precipitation should blossom by late afternoon or evening. As we mentioned earlier, any precipitation through afternoon should be on the light side, with not much accumulation until after sunset. Next full update between 3 and 4 p.m.

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 9, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Low off southeast coast looks impressive

Posted by: mciaram1 | February 9, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

The bust comments really are interesting, and sound similar to before the blizzard. Just because it's not happening now, or you don't see it on a radar screen, doesn't mean it won't happen.

Posted by: craig19 | February 9, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

On what basis are people already calling for this to be a "bust"? There's no evidence to support that, other than perhaps your own wishful thinking. If you were expecting 16-20" in DC, then yes this storm will likely disappoint. But pretty much every single model and every single forecast is predicting at leas 5-10" for the DC region. That's basically what the CWG have gone with, and I put a lot of stock into their predictions.

And let's maintain some perspective: half a foot of snow on top of what we are already dealing with, in addition to high winds, is a significant event for DC. We don't have to get 12-14" in order for this storm to really mess things up.

Posted by: ultrapop101 | February 9, 2010 2:23 PM | Report abuse

Safeway in Pan Am Center (Nutley/29) completely picked over; no milk/eggs.

Posted by: Gunga2009 | February 9, 2010 2:23 PM | Report abuse

@krishnanswamy:

By consistency I mean w.r.t. the surrounding area. Using a location that is a chronic outlier makes no sense, statistically or otherwise. And the fact that DCA is so much lower than other measures makes it more egregious.

Consistency over time is not an issue - The history books already have plenty of measures from before DCA, so a change won't kill us. I have no idea how other cities measure, so that makes no difference to me either.

Posted by: cvilleSnowMan | February 9, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Has anyone else noticed that Doug Hill's maps are the same as the ones posted on accuweather? Not all the time, but a lot of the time, when he shows a map it's identical to the one on AW's main page.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 2:25 PM | Report abuse

The bust comments will continue. It's the nature of the online beast. You can anonymously claim something without any fear of real reprecussions if you end up incorrect. Simply people don't have to deal with the shame of being found out because their anonymity acts as proxy.

Posted by: voltron88x | February 9, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-falls-church. What's your opinion if you add a tack-over roof into the mix? Would bring us closer to the 30 psi danger zone, I'd think. But significantly? I don't know what these tiles weigh.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 2:28 PM | Report abuse

CNN is reporting only 5-10 inches for the dc are inside the beltway. They are really, really, stressing only 5 inches for DC. I don't know how accurate they are, but on there radar it shows the eye of the storm not even coming through this area, but more over the northern part of Baltimore.

Posted by: MTRainier_Resident | February 9, 2010 2:30 PM | Report abuse

@voltron88x

I will own up if we get more than 3 inches in the DC area. By the way, I'm in awe of your blazing sword.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 2:30 PM | Report abuse

@swishjobs

When you say that b-more could do better, do you mean more in line with the 8-16 prediction, or do you mean it could exceed those numbers. Thanks

Posted by: craig19 | February 9, 2010 2:32 PM | Report abuse

@300_sq._ft. Re: Doug Hill, don't let me get started. I grind my teeth when he's on WTOP and hope for a REAL meterologist to come on the airwaves at the next "8".

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 2:32 PM | Report abuse

I think it's very clear that folks in Baltimore will get a considerable amount of snow. However, DC will not get that much snow.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

I think everyone can agree that the coming storm is very difficult to predict, but I have yet to see any evidence that points to DC receiving only a dusting-3". Might we? Perhaps, as this is a very volatile storm. But I wouldn't put money on that, as all of the models that we have seen thus far point to at least twice as much accumulation.

Posted by: ultrapop101 | February 9, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

In the words of the immortal Yogi Berra, "it's not over 'til it's over."

People were saying Friday's storm was nothing and kids could have been in school because it started hours later than was anticipated. The heaviest snowfall was overnight.

We shall see and keep your emergency gear close at hand.

Posted by: elizestrada | February 9, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

@ IvantheTerrible

hahaha, well pretty much any space monster is no match for it! :)

Posted by: voltron88x | February 9, 2010 2:37 PM | Report abuse

Who watches/reads CNN for weather, anyway?

Posted by: beetsnotbeats | February 9, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse

from what I can tell, confidence seems high that Baltimore gets at least 10-12". As for DC, confidence appears low enough for there is still a wide-range estimate from 5 to 12". Hopefully in the next hour or so new model guidance will point area mets into a more clear direction (i.e. the models are in very close agreement)

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 2:39 PM | Report abuse

I think ABC7 is affiliated with AccuWeather somehow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Local_AccuWeather_Channel

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 9, 2010 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Bust? Nope. Initial overrunning snows were not expected to amount to much. CWG is dead on with the "blossoming" idea as vertical motion will increase in formative precip area in the next few hours. Blacksburg radar beginning to show increasing reflectivity in WV and more growth in SW VA.

What will be very interesting is the ultimate development of the convergence zone in the best dendritic growth band. Those locations will probably pick up a quick 6 on top of the 1-4 earlier, with another 1-3 after. The edge is VERY close to the DC area, and still tagged for late night into daybreak.

In short, the ultimate snow totals will be a very tight gradient. Even NWS was discussing how St. Mary's could range quite large given it's north-south shape:

BLV ARND PAX RVR BY WED
MRNG 2-3" PSBL WHILE IN THE NW PART OF THE COUNTY 7" IN LKLY.

So, it's not out of the question that Spotsy-S Fauquier see less than 4, while DC proper gets 6 to 10, Damascus through Laurel gets 8 to 12, and Ellicott City-Reisterstown-Bel Air get 12+.

Some of the big "winners" (or losers, depending on how you look at it) will be those who got up to 3 feet last weekend(Ellicott City, Elkridge, etc) where they would be on the higher end, in the 12+" range.

Suggest closely monitoring the location of the upper low on water vapor satellite imagery (swirl just north of St Louis @230 PM). If it tracks into far southern VA/northern NC, the higher totals will prevail. Tracking across central/N VA, lower totals will prevail.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/WV/20.jpg

Posted by: wxdancer | February 9, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

@walterinfallschurch, conflicting prayers are settled by desire, and I am very happy to see that even the virga has pushed back across the Potomac

also, thanks for roof tips and info

Posted by: TGT11 | February 9, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

interesting thing I'd like to mention...models may all still point to 6"+ plus for the immediate DC metro area, but that doesn't always mean we're going to get that much snow. I remember a January 2000 storm that was supposed to go out to sea according to the computer models- the 6:00pm forecasts from 4, 5, 7, and 9 ALL has us getting no snow whatsoever in DC. Just an hour and a half or so later, I was looking at a radar loop on intellicast and noticed, uh oh, this things definitely moving more to the north rather than east. I don't remember the exact accumulations, but I'm pretty sure we ended up with at least 8" from that one...

Posted by: BH99 | February 9, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

tinkerbelle,
what's a "tack-over roof"? you mentioned "tiles". are these the "C"-shaped "spanish-stlye" or flat "slate-style" shingles?

and most importantly, are these tiles "original" - like were they on the house when it was built?

the roof tiles themselves would be considered "dead load" (the weight of the roof itself - the rafters, plywood, roof boards, roof felt and roofing (i.e. the tiles)). this "dead load" is not part of the 30psf "live load". most roofs allow for 15 psf dead load, but roofs with "tile" usually are designed with higher "dead loads" in mind.

so....if the tiles were on the house originally, it is probably designed to hold them, and they're not even considered part of the 30 psf load.

does that help?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Anyone want to "guess" what I will get out in Crofton, MD which is about 10 miles due south of BWI? I am thinking 8-12" is good bet??

Posted by: snowlover | February 9, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse

@wxdancer,

It's tracking across the North hence the low numbers I'm giving.

I wish I had a Bankai so that I could do something to clear all the unplowed snow on my street.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Juan - thanks. Makes sense now.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

I am ROTFL about how casually the same folk who in normal winters go into a panic over 2-4 inches are talking about "only" 8-16 inches.

Even if we get "only" 2-4 inches, that will still add to the miseries of the road crews trying to clear the roads and all the essential personnel trying to get where they need to get!

As for the complaints about DCA snow measurements, I don't think we're looking for bragging rights. More that this area gets laughed out by Snow Belt types for how we handle snow and we don't want the impact of this storm to come off any lighter than it should.

Posted by: librarylady61 | February 9, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Hi Walter,

Thanks for your response. Tack-over is the term the roofer used. Maybe it's not a universal term? It's just a second roof nailed over the original. I had it done when the house was 20 years old. So: two roofs. As for tile, I don't mean anything exotic like slate. I think the roofer called it composite. Just ordinary roofing tiles.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 2:56 PM | Report abuse

NWS now calling for range of 7-14" for DC and points south, but MoCo and PG are still grouped with Baltimore and northern counties at 10-20".

Posted by: Rangwx1 | February 9, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

Praying for the "bust" to become a reality. Would really be a saving grace for the entire region.

Fairfax County residents in the Braddock District received a dire email about what might happen if the worst were to occur. It was bluntly pointed out that the region is not equipped to handle that much snow and didn't have trucks large enough to that amount of snow. Warned of transportation being paralyzed for days if true.

Again, you people hoping for that kind of snow are simply off your rocker.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

Radar starting to fill in nicely around us. Come on now, BRING IT!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

New NWS Winter Storm Warning has backed off to 7-14" which is still nothing to sneeze at, but in line with other positions.

Posted by: Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom | February 9, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

@BH99,

I remember that storm! If you went to bed without checking back at the 11pm news, man were you surprised the next morning.

Posted by: nonfrequentflyer | February 9, 2010 3:01 PM | Report abuse

Bustageddon 2010: The Climbdown

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 9, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

tinkerbelle,
ah...so the roof was re-shingled right on top of the old shingles (as often is the case).

for all practical purposes you CAN add that weight to the live load. typical asphaltic shingles weigh 2.5 - 4 psf installed (better ones weigh more). it's not a lot of weight, but it's not insignificant either. shouldn't be a problem though.

but, next time you replace the shingles, make them remove the (now) two layers of shingles and start over.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Is it just me... or is the 18z NAM looking pretty interesting?

Posted by: markinva2 | February 9, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

@Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom


NWS new immediate metro forecast actually calls for 10-14

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/dc/dcz001.txt

Posted by: danog224 | February 9, 2010 3:06 PM | Report abuse

@ wxdancer:

Your last post says it all....thank you. We'll be watching.

Posted by: bodyiq | February 9, 2010 3:07 PM | Report abuse

@markinva2

Yes, the 18Z - 36Z are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

Looking at radar, wasn't that upper level low in the Midwest supposed to dig south? To the untrained eye, it doesn't look like that's the case.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

6"-10" for Reston, VA...I'd put money on it (if I had some).

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

@Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom

NWS Winter Storm Warning still says 10-20 inches for most MD counties. Where is the 7-14? DC? I think this storm is being underestimated in the DC area.

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 9, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

"but when else am I going to ever see this area in such a state again? Probably never"

I disagree. This is no worse than '96 in terms of impact to the area (probably not as bad).

We just forget how bad that was (we couldn't get out of our house for a week).

Posted by: Ombudsman1 | February 9, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

I see the updated NWS Warning now; it is the DC area that was changed to 7-14. However, I think that's due to lower southern Maryland being included. Wouldn't be surprised to see the sleet stay south and east of DC again with accumulations of 12+. Up here in Carroll County, I have a feeling we're looking at 18+ inches...with nowhere to put it!

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 9, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

As long as the power stays on long enough to watch Lost tonite, I'll be happy.

Posted by: wadejg | February 9, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

The 12z nam shows much more moisture than before... considerably more snow even for DC, but interestingly the "bullseye" has shifted south and EAST...

unless I'm reading the thing wrong...

Posted by: markinva2 | February 9, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

@DLO1975

WSW for DC south has been downgraded to 7-14. Includes Fairfax and Loudoun and points south.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

Model watchers-- the latest NAM more or less supports what we're forecasting...although don't be surprised to see some sleet and (gulp) even rain drops along and east of I-95 when it gets started. The NAM would continue to argue for the lower end of our accumulation ranges but shouldn't be a bust. We're now awaiting the GFS...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 9, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

Bernie Rayno just said it's finishing up for Indy and Columbus and will be an I-80 event, then showed the Low hanging out near Akron, thing is going to have to put up a big right turn to cross the 39th parallel

have to credit accuweather for once, earlier in the week they said maybe 4-6 here, but really a NYC/Bos storm

Posted by: TGT11 | February 9, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

hmmm...just peeked at the 18z nam...looks drier...looks like that low may be bombing out too late or too far off...interested to see what you guys think

Posted by: swishjobs | February 9, 2010 3:16 PM | Report abuse

Isn't this storm also trending less for Baltimore and Philly as well as us? Im hoping for a solid 6.

Posted by: rocotten | February 9, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

The NWS retreat begins: 7-14.

By 11 p.m. NWS will be forecasting 3-6.

Sunny tomorrow.

Posted by: smoke111 | February 9, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the update, Jason. You guys have had a good handle on this one so far. I trumpeted your merits to a co-worker before the first blizzard and you now have another follower in that co-worker.

Keep up the good work.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

@danog224

Well, I guess they think the higher end of 7-14 is possible in the DC metro area, with maybe the lower end of that more likely farther west.

Now the 18Z NAM has changed the QPF profile a little more. Just a lot of inconsistency and uncertainty makes for a really tough forecast.

Posted by: Steve-wxtalkwordpresscom | February 9, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

@tinkerbelle, walter

It sounds like she's got something like this:

http://www.tamko.com/OurKeyBrands/LAMARITELandingPage/tabid/106/ControlType/categoryDisplay/itemid/19/Default.aspx

over standard asphalt shingles.

Posted by: mason08 | February 9, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Southwest cancelled our Thursday morning flight out of BWI...so at this point I say Bring It! Would love to find a place to put another 18+ inches!

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 9, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Dulles just checked in at 33, was only supposed to be 29 for a high, Leesburg and Manassas also above freezing

will keep praying for the big bust of 2010

Posted by: TGT11 | February 9, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch

Thanks for confirming my numbers. With a degree in electrical engineering, I always get a little nervous and conservative when I do structural stuff.

I will sleep a little easier having put in some vertical members too reduce any potential deflection in the rafters.

The house was re-roofed late last summer, with ice shield and such on the roof to keep back damming...have seen no evidence of ice dams. The gutters, though, are LOADED. Huge amounts of ice and yard-long icicles. The brackets holding those gutters on must be crazy strong. Other houses in neighborhood (some well over 100 years old) have had gutters ripped right off. Which, in some ways, is good for shedding water.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | February 9, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

@TGT11

You and me both! You won't hear a peep out of me if the forecast busts. I'm rooting for it like crazy.

I'd like to begin the task of returning to a normal life again.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

TGT - At the onset of our last blizzard, temperatures were even higher than those. Once the coastal gets kicking, cold air will be plentiful. I'm just hoping it explodes further to the south so we can see some decent snows

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

wow, this is a tough one to forecast. No doubt!

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Like I wrote earlier, this snow event will leave us with a maximum of 3 inches of snow. The winds are what I'm worried about.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

@wxdancer: Is that big brown/black scar in the southeast a weather system or clear skies?

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 9, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Columbus was supposed to get 5-10 inches, they got 4, but now not getting any additional. Their latitude is 70 miles north of ours.

Posted by: TGT11 | February 9, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Latest NAM coming back a bit south and west with preicp -- looking a bit better for snow lovers!

Posted by: snowlover | February 9, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Huge thanks to walter-in-fallschurch and DrMeglet...I appreciate the community spirit!

Posted by: Hoyas4Ever | February 9, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

I wish to compliment your company for having the presence of mind to not feature global warming mythology stories while reporting record snowfalls and cold temperatures. Many of your competitors have amazingly not been able to recognize the obvious hypocrisy.
It is far more complicated to manage lies than truths.
A very smart opt-out decision by your company.
Well done.

Posted by: jgsr | February 9, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Snow has resumed in Warren County.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 9, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

WRC now talking about mix SE of Loudoun/mid Fairfax tonight... I don't remember that from other 'timeline' maps. Total 8-12 in Loudoun and NE/SW from there.

Posted by: leesweet | February 9, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

I think it's important to note that the NWS warning has Montgomery, PG and Arundel lumped with points north and east, still in the 10 to 20 zone.

Posted by: MosesCleaveland | February 9, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Pressure falls off the GA/SC coast make things look quite promising :) :)

Posted by: Holt1 | February 9, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Irked that CWG didn't have the cojones to use the Snowvechkin name. If Ovechkin played for the Redskins, you can bet it'd be called Snowvechkin.

Posted by: Langway4Eva | February 9, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse

IvantheTerrible,
do you have any credentials with respect to forecasting the weather or are you just looking at a radar loop? the storm hasn't even developed yet.

Posted by: bhfairfax | February 9, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse

I call bust for Charlottesville (and that's the only area I've spoken of for two days). We were to have 2 - 4" during the day, and we're getting slotted.

Posted by: cvilleSnowMan | February 9, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Right now, it looks to be passing to the north of us.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Posted by: Vingold | February 9, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

@ Rod

Perhaps because some of us aren't Caps fans and rue #8 for not falling into our favorite team's draft pick lap.

Posted by: voltron88x | February 9, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

In honor of all the naysayers last Friday afternoon, I'm going to declare this storm a complete and total BUST. 3:30 and not even a single snowflake! Bust bust bust bust bust!

Posted by: PerfectlyCromulent64 | February 9, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

Weather fans: Thinking about doing a WaPo piece on that small % of folks who are actually thrilled that the metro region is getting so much snow this season.

If you're that person, would you be so kind as to email me?

(I'd especially love to hear from you if you know what .5-.75 qpf means. Not a requirement, though.)

Tx.

Posted by: jfdulac | February 9, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

NWS still has Howard County in the 10-20 range. Wunderground.com has Howard in the 12-18 inch range. Don't see any backing down up here...

Posted by: mickb1 | February 9, 2010 3:35 PM | Report abuse

@Jason CWG - Are you sure you were looking at the 18z NAM, precip looks back up in the area? Rain&Sleet/Snow line has always been close....

Posted by: snowlover | February 9, 2010 3:37 PM | Report abuse

This "storm" should be called the Snyder - alot of hype, then big disappointment and anger from the (snow) fans.

Posted by: notdlo1975 | February 9, 2010 3:37 PM | Report abuse

@bhfairfax

I'm looking at the radar as well as the NWS datasets. I'm an IT Auditor by profession.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Snow, after tapering off earlier in the afternoon, has recommenced in Frederick. Still light, but with temps below freezing, every flake should be sticking.

Posted by: dettiot | February 9, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

@jfdulac.

Does qpf stand for quarts per fart? j/k

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

@bhfairfax

FYI, there has been discussion in several places that the possibility exists for the coastal to form too far north to slam DC.

The radar does happen to show some clues to that becoming a distinct possibility.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 9, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

No one should be angry if this "busts." We could be averting DISASTER. I mean it - disaster. Unless that is what you are rooting for?

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | February 9, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

AndrewRockville,
"With a degree in electrical engineering, I always get a little nervous and conservative when I do structural stuff."

yes, well, i get nervous around electricity....

mason08,
yeah, that's about what i assumed. 2.5 - 4 psf installed is a good approximation for those.

Hoyas4Ever,
my pleasure.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 9, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

I'm from the midwest, I love it, I'm praying for a ft+ and I will not apologize for it!

Posted by: MAYFREE34 | February 9, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

@ 300_sq_ft
I'm with you dude! Bring it!

Posted by: 180_mile_commute | February 9, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

@krishnanswamy Re: DCA snow measurements, I echoing what others are noting: Bragging rights has nothing to do with it. If this were the case, we'd be suggesting our "official" snow totals be taken at IAD. However, I don't recall anyone making this suggestion in the numerous posts on this topic.

I think most of us would like to see a figure more representative figure for the D.C. metro area, which we don't get at DCA. And when a well-known and respected meteorologist such as Bob Ryan weighs in on this, clearly this goes beyond the blogosphere.

As for the pre-storm snow estimates, CWG does a good job and Accuweather is currently estimating 9.2 inches. If we could get 9.4" and set a new all-time DC record, that could work for now. We don't necessarily need another snow bomb of 15-plus inches to induce this week's snowgasm.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

SouthsideFFX - No one is rooting for a disaster here....so please stop.

People are in awe of nature and are mesmerized by its power.

Please stop. Thank You.

Posted by: shackleton | February 9, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

@ SouthsideFFX
I think "Disaster" is a quite exaggerated but yes, it wouldn't be welcomed for some, but not everyone.

Posted by: parksndc | February 9, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Bust?

Posted by: juliusc91 | February 9, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

I'm not ready to call this a "bust" yet, but the less snow, the better. I'm over it, dudes.

Posted by: truyle | February 9, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring

Actually I believe radar and latest pressure trends show the low somewhere of the SC coast.

The only question is where it decides to bomb out.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

First flake sighting in my neighborhood in Falls Church. Just finished shearing down part of Mt. Everest at my driveway so hubby has room to get the truck in easily.

Posted by: tbva | February 9, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Lead items in The Post's Afternoon Buzz news update:

Snoverkill is hitting critical mass
The latest updates on snow-related news.

Capital Weather Gang: Next storm closes in; no change in forecast
Widely varying accumulation forecasts depend on where you are in the Washington metropolitan area.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 9, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Actually of the GA coast:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.html

CWG - does this change the game at all? Possibly increase the chance of it bombing out while it's still to our south? I thought I heard from several sources that it was supposed to form off of Hatteras.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

@thinkspring,
I'm aware of that possibility but it hasn't formed yet and the radar doesn't provide sufficient guidance at this point to warrant bust assumptions...particularly because its preferable that people prepare for the worst in this situation.

Posted by: bhfairfax | February 9, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

NEW POST

Posted by: Juan-John1 | February 9, 2010 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Noticed light flaked coming down just now - 349 pm - in North Arlington.

Shoveled off the roof off screened porch this morning to be on the safe side. It's only about 10' X 25' but still took me about an hour.

Posted by: Joel_M_Lane | February 9, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

@180 mile commute

That. Can't. Be. Your. Real commute. Can it?

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

I think the folks following the radar can see why I'm calling this a bust. My final call is 3 inches of snow for the DC metro area.

Posted by: IvantheTerrible | February 9, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

@300_sq_ft
Not off the GA coast, but those pressure falls indicate the low pressure should develop a little north of there...maybe somewhere around the NC/SC border? This would be good news for the higher end of the forecasted snow totals! If those pressure falls were currently off the VA coast...then it would be "bust" time. Anyone calling for a bust by looking at radar, doesn't know what they're talking about.

Posted by: Holt1 | February 9, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

not enough for hype-loving reporters and mets to come up with a cheesy snow-something nickname for this little ripple

Posted by: TGT11 | February 9, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Flakes coming down Wardman Park/Zoo metro.

Posted by: Scott95616 | February 9, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse

@300sq ft
sure is! while i read about your snowgasms and snowmageddons... i'm staring at grass.

Posted by: 180_mile_commute | February 9, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

Of course, I meant Woodley Park/Zoo metro, as seen from the Marriott Wardman.

Posted by: Scott95616 | February 9, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

First flakes in South Arlington. NW DC also per the live shot on NBC 4.

Posted by: MosesCleaveland | February 9, 2010 4:07 PM | Report abuse

I hope it is less than predicted. No more snow!!! Too many people are suffering without power in their homes, people can't get to work and aren't getting paid and they need the income. The snow was pretty and you weather fans are great, but I'm thinking of those less fortunate.

Posted by: shejoy | February 9, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-falls-church. Thanks much!

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 9, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

@180

You'll get yours soon. This one may surprise you.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

@300
it would be a surprise, sure enough. rain, rain, rain here. maybe some sleet later w/ only an inch of the puffy white stuff tomorrow. nothing like you snow hogs up north!

Posted by: 180_mile_commute | February 9, 2010 4:54 PM | Report abuse

ha. Hey there's a new post up. Go to the main page then you'll see. People are commenting there as the snow has now started!!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 9, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

Snowing in Brookland, NE DC. Mostly fine with occasional big flakes. Looks wet and it is starting to stick to cars.
We are moving to Hawaii in June and I can't wait!!!!!

Posted by: jaw33 | February 9, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

6-16 inches is not a forecast. With a spread of nearly 200%, that's not specific enough to be a forecast. Why not just make it 2-20 inches? Sheesh, grow a pair.

Posted by: gbooksdc | February 9, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Light to moderate large flakes coming down in the Tantallon section of Ft Washington, MD

Posted by: ftwash | February 9, 2010 5:31 PM | Report abuse

TGT11, what happens in Columbus, OH, has little or nothing to do with what will happen here. They are not subject to the effects of coastal lows.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | February 9, 2010 6:31 PM | Report abuse

You are forecasting 30 degrees F for tomorrow. You have been consistently underforecasting temperatures for many weeks now. But, whether it is 30, or 35 (more likely so given your poor track record) these temperatures are far to high to be consistent with strong gusts of northeastern wind. Armagedonoverkillcrap. What a joke. Why dont you forecast another deluge while you're at it...

Posted by: RegisUrgel | February 9, 2010 7:52 PM | Report abuse

I like that you acknowledge the varying forecasts and mention that the models just aren't in agreement this time like they were for last week. It conveys respect for your readers, and honesty. Plus, I just feel better knowing why I keep hearing different things from different sources.

Posted by: elmoreal1 | February 9, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

For those who thought this was just a winter, what do you think it is. We can't under estimate the power of STORMAGEDDON.

Posted by: suemurty | February 10, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

I hope,When kerry's election comes around,The great people of Mass.Will send john kerry on his way.This bum is such a loser,And turned on his,So called buddys,In the military.And then went to Iraq like a big shot,While cutting their funding.How two faced is that!.It is pretty bad when a third rate thug,Tell's him,They had no time for his crap,Like Iran.Even they know he is a loser.Now with ALL THE RECORD BREAKING FREEZE ALL OVER THE WORLD!, He has said,Don't think that the Global Warming scam is over,Because it is not.He along with pelosi,reid,gore,bill clinton,& obama,Will pass this scam anyway.I just hope the people in MASS. Puts this bum on the road also.Vote another dem in.Just take this rat out.PLEASE.

Posted by: dickiesnhogheaven | February 10, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

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