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Posted at 4:17 PM ET, 02/ 7/2010

Not again: Winter Storm Watch for Tues/Wed

By Jason Samenow

*** More snow Tues/Wed, are you kidding?: Full Forecast ***

* Federal government closed Monday: Federal Eye *
* Detailed look at next snow threat: SLCB | Watch out ice dams *
* Measuring Snowmageddon's depth | NWS totals | CWG snow reports *
* Power outage maps for Dominion Electric | Pepco | BG&E *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There *

Capital Weather Gang will have a fresh, new analysis of this potential storm around 6 p.m., including our latest thoughts about accumulations

Full Statement from National Weather Service (map):

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

By Jason Samenow  | February 7, 2010; 4:17 PM ET
Categories:  Updates, Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Measuring Snowmaggedon's snow depth
Next: Update: Significant snow likely Tues.-Wed.

Comments

Yippie

Another week, Another snow storm

I am moving

Posted by: Bious | February 7, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

first!!

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 7, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Schools out all week?

Posted by: heatherdc1980 | February 7, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

doh

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 7, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Bring it.

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 7, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

I figure we might as well make this winter super historic at this point.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

I'll be eager to see how CWG forecasts for T/W compared to NWS. Can't believe that we have more on the way....

Posted by: krosseel | February 7, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

CWG -- what would be your confidence level on the predictions of this WSW?

Posted by: cosmo12 | February 7, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

@ennepe68

Yes. Even though I still have not finished my driveway....

Posted by: AlexBike | February 7, 2010 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Seems like the NAM is showing the storm hitting us as the storm moves across from the west bringing about 5-10" while the GFS shows it hitting us from the West and then hitting us again as the storm winds up the coast for closer to 15".

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 7, 2010 4:36 PM | Report abuse

@Ian/CWG
Agreement from Herndon. Why NOT go for another 5 inches (of dry) snow?! Enjoying the sun glares and shadows on the 5 foot drifts in front of my hone. Stay safe, and rest well.

Posted by: sullivanva1 | February 7, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Any word on the federal government? Thought I heard they are going to announce before the Superbowl, but Metro says they won't know whether they are operating above-ground tomorrow, until later tonight.

Posted by: AlexBike | February 7, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

wow....are you serious? this storm might give us 15 inches?

Posted by: lll1424 | February 7, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

I'm thinking 6-12" for this storm.

Best winter ever!

Posted by: oriolesfan23 | February 7, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

@AlexBike

I have been checking the opm.gov site for status, and they also have a number to call, 202 606-1900 for an update. VRE will be closed tomorrow, WMATA buses still aren't running, above-ground stations still aren't open, meaning people in the suburbs will have no way to get in unless they drive. Sounds like a snow day.

Posted by: krosseel | February 7, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Over it. ......and I have a stinkin' snowblower!

Posted by: tridentbulldog | February 7, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

OK, it's official: I'm over it. Let spring commence!

Posted by: truyle | February 7, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

This is a plea for help.

We have been without power since Friday evening at 9:30.

How do we get Pepco to do its job?

No Pepco truck has been seen in this area since the storm began.

Pepco has abadoned us to the fates, and apparently have few if any plans to fix the power here anytime soon. None they will disclose.

We live in Rock Creek Forest, hardly a remote suburb.

Yet it appears that Pepco and the local government has abandoned us.

Many of our neighbors have left, others, including the elderly are in place.

It's just too third world to believe.

Any suggestions on how to pressure Pepco to do their job?

BTW, PEPCO exactly NO maintenance on the trees that are in its right of way; they occassionally hire third party contractors who do a laughable pathetic job, including causing this deep winter fiasco.

(Posted from a laptop tethered to a BB as modem)

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

I have an irate caller for Mr. Gore on line 3.

Posted by: douglaslbarber | February 7, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

Can/will//MUST handle snow as long as depth remains below eye level.
Cannot handle freezing rain.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 7, 2010 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Just checked OPM hotline, and they still have a recording on for Friday. They will HAVE to make a decision soon, SuperBowl or not. I can't see them NOT closing tomorrow, but stranger things have happened. 100K still w/out power, VRE closed, Fort Belvoir is closed and is urging organizations that work on post to NOT come in. That's a first!

It'll be interesting to see what OPM does for T/W with a WSW up this early. Should be interesting...

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 7, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

It's a rae between the next storm and the novec folx

they say early afternoon repair tues
snow coming tues afternoon

or course living at the end of a dirt road that has as yet been plowed might make it closer than it would appear.....

Posted by: mandarb77 | February 7, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

ubimea, I wish I had an answer for you. My sister and mother live in Aspen Hill off of Arctic Ave/Bel Pre Road, and have been without power since very early yesterday AM. If the problems are not easily fixed, I don't understand why more is not being done to evacuate folks to a safe - WARM - location. I would love to go and rescue them, but I can't get to them because their neighborhood streets haven't been plowed. Why isn't PEPCO at least communicating with the county so snow plows can be sent to at least make it possible for folks to leave?? SO FRUSTRATING - and worrisome! Hope you have a way to stay warm....be safe (don't use charcoal inside like the family in Burtonsville did)

Posted by: kathyb39 | February 7, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Come on folks, the Government will be closed tomorrow. The announcement is a mere formality.

Posted by: jaydreb1 | February 7, 2010 5:00 PM | Report abuse

@ubimea: This is truly an exceptional storm and you cannot expect PEPCO to restore your power when they cant even get their trucks down the streets. There are also a lot of isolated outages. As long as you have food and blankets you'll be fine.

As for the lack of service, you get what you pay for. People don't want to pay higher taxes or higher rates, so the result is subpar maintenance and slow response times.

Posted by: JTF- | February 7, 2010 5:00 PM | Report abuse

@heatherdc1980--School's. Out.

For-ever!

Posted by: stevis23 | February 7, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

According to the Post's "closings and delays" section... Federal Gov is closed Monday. It's tricky to find (under school closings).

OPM site seems broken...

Posted by: MikeJC | February 7, 2010 5:03 PM | Report abuse

jtf-

The county cleared streets, so that excuse is not available to Pepco.

And, in Montgomery County, the fifth wealthiest county in the nation, we pay very high taxes and among the highest utility rates in the country.

This area repeatedly is subject to weather events which can interrupt the power.

Pepco only makes excuses for their failure to hire adequate crews to deal with outages and the necessary repairs when they inevitably occur.

Any other suggestions on how to get Pepco to do its job?

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse

ubimea: Recommend you call Pepco cust svc ASAP. If you can read this, then you should be able to check Pepco's website for any kind of status as well. Maybe they have a map up with updates. I live in VA -- not sure what else to tell you.

Good luck!

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 7, 2010 5:08 PM | Report abuse

The 18z GFS continues trending toward a big time event.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: cosmo12 | February 7, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

OPM's site must be getting nailed now - keeps on freezing up. Common sense says it will be closed, but I bet you we get liberal leave.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 7, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

I am the weather nut in my household, but I will say that the last couple storms have my husband looking at model runs. It has been the most entertaining aspect of winter. He has been reduced to yelling at the computer during shoveling breaks. The NAM and GFS guidance does suggest that we could see another 10+ storm...
For the curious, http://www.opm.gov/status/ has been down for the several minutes. I went to the grocery this afternoon. I-66 still had snow pack past 7100 and major roads like US 50 and US 29 out in Fairfax had a snow pack of 4-5 inches. I don't see how VDOT can have that treated by rush hour. OPM would be foolish to have people out when plows need the streets clear to handle this storm before Tues night's one.

Posted by: Ginnie_Cricket | February 7, 2010 5:10 PM | Report abuse

Ian - how big?

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 7, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Ian- 18z GFS shows about 15" with 10:1 ratios, but I've been hearing ratios may be higher for this storm, so would the 18z run be suggesting totals higher than 15"?

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 7, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Thanks kathyb39

We are ok so long as the generator holds out.

I feel badly for the elderly and the sick.

With such low temperatures and more snow forcasted, this is a very serious problem and I don't get the feeling that anyone in government or at Pepco gives a hoot!

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

hahaha... GFS = 12-18 for DC area

DC-Phili are in a lot of trouble!

... and anyone that has substantial snow on their roof might want to think of clearing it before round 2

Posted by: METEO-PSU | February 7, 2010 5:13 PM | Report abuse

The Winter storm Watch for DCA is probably over a pre caution and there is a decent chance that over northeast VA and eastern MD this snow could change over to rain.

The 12z CMC / GFS are all too far south with the Upper Low... and the odds are good that this feature will NOT track into central VA.

if it does not track that far south then the snow or whatever falls will be much less

Posted by: wxrisk | February 7, 2010 5:15 PM | Report abuse

Thanks southbridgemom:

Sadly, beyond a recorded line with exactly no information, Pepco has no such thing a "customer service"

Pepco promised after its abysmal 2003 performance during Isabel that it would do better.

Not to put too fine a point on it, they lied. No status updates, nothing beyond repair pending.

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 5:19 PM | Report abuse

Meteo PSU-- when you you got back to class on monday you might want to get one of those PSY met professors to explain why the 18 GFS is a piece of crap model... and arguably the worst of all 3 GFS runs.

the 500 low is NOT going to pass over Richmond VA

Posted by: wxrisk | February 7, 2010 5:20 PM | Report abuse

So the Federal Government is closed but DC public schools will only be delayed? Yeah, that makes sense.

Posted by: Tess89 | February 7, 2010 5:22 PM | Report abuse

Snopocalypse III: SNOWHERE TO HIDE coming to a National Capital Area near you this Tuesday!

Posted by: ironmanjt | February 7, 2010 5:23 PM | Report abuse

Folks--just a word of caution that the uncertainty is higher for this storm than the previous. It *could* be a significant snow producer, but if the coastal low forms too far north, wxrisk is right...we'll have more mixing issues and less total precip.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 7, 2010 5:23 PM | Report abuse

I love the snow. Really, I do. I just wish that I could enjoy it properly. PG County has never plowed my neighbourhood after any snowstorm, so my neighbours and I get out and shovel our own streets. It's all very neighbourly and whatnot, but quite exhausting.

I absolutely REFUSE to believe that we could get another whopper like we just did. I don't care what kind of models you show me! The mere thought of lifting my shovel another inch makes me want to throw myself into a snowbank and remain there until the spring thaw.

I feel like I'm in the reality TV version of Day After Tomorrow.

Posted by: WorfsBabyMama | February 7, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

How do you clean off your roofs on a 3 story townhouse? I certainly don't have a ladder that goes that high, and don't know anyone that does.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 7, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

Ian, Jason, etc...Just saw the 18Z GFS. OMG. Jason--I need you email. Pls email it to pmichaels@cato.org. Thx!

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 7, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

if dave is calling for rain... I better get ready for a foot of snow! ;)

Just kidding DT, back in the day on Wright you were the one that kept me coming back to read your posts.

Posted by: jpl1019 | February 7, 2010 5:26 PM | Report abuse

2-hour delay for DCPS. Those poor kids - everyone else will likely be off the whole week!

Posted by: thepostischeap | February 7, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone else get scared seeing Pat Michaels say OMG???

Posted by: kathyb39 | February 7, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Hey Gang,

I know we're still a bit out from this storm and it's more uncertain -- but any idea as to the start time yet? NWS just says "afternoon."

Normally I wouldn't care, but my fiance's flight into DCA tonight was (obviously) canceled. He has a Tuesday EARLY flight into Detroit and then from Detroit into DCA around noon Tuesday. We're hoping he makes it back before the next round. Any idea if we're harboring false hopes right now?

And, thanks OPM for the day off -- now I can walk to the grocery store to get food for the rest of the week before round 3(4,5,6?) hits...

Posted by: AlexandriaAnna | February 7, 2010 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Folks, when JB and DT agree on an upcoming wnter event, bank on it.

This coming event will center north of here, on New York City, not us.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled rant against Pepco :)

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 5:32 PM | Report abuse

just got power back here in bmore county. been out since 330 sat morning

Posted by: snowlover3 | February 7, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

@kathyb39...ummm, yeah. that's a bit...ummm...unsettling....

Posted by: paige_va | February 7, 2010 5:34 PM | Report abuse

DC gov't is open Monday. Fenty MUST GO! This is a public safety issue. Yes, DC may be relatively clear, but a lot of his employees live outside the city where things are not so rosy. To expect those employees to come in or take leave is unacceptable and a danger to all. If anyone is injured by this action, he should resign immediately.

Posted by: dukenilnil | February 7, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

I just can't believe this winter weather...incredible !

Posted by: letitsnow | February 7, 2010 5:44 PM | Report abuse

I don't think any kind of precipitation is a good thing. Rain will cause a lot of flooding because there is no where for the water to go. Snow will be difficult to dig out of because there just isn't any place to put it. Sleet/ice - well that would just harden everything into solid blocks of ice. I hope we get no precipitation of any kind.

Posted by: barbnc | February 7, 2010 5:46 PM | Report abuse

@ubimea, I would try contacting a couple of the TV stations; their reporters talk to PEPCO reps and might be able to pass on the word about your plight. Good luck on this and pls ignore snarky, slushy responses to your and your neighbors' situation.

Re: DCPS, I live across the street from a school, and many kids bus in. Neighborhood streets are unplowed, the school's parking lot is still filled with snow. How can they even consider opening tomorrow, and put the kids' well being at risk? This decision beggars the imagination.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 7, 2010 5:48 PM | Report abuse

@ kathyb39 & paige_va,

When a noted meteorologist says OMG at a storm model two days out... yikes.

Posted by: MKoehl | February 7, 2010 5:50 PM | Report abuse

DCPS has a tough choice. While getting to school for many may be difficult or impossible - those students won't go. Many of those who do go rely on DCPS for 2 of their 3 daily meals. This is not a generalization or a stereotype, it's a fact. Let kids stay home hungry or open the schools for those who can come in?

Posted by: BrentwoodGuy | February 7, 2010 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Anyone have any idea if MARC trains will be running tomorrow (Monday) morning? MARC is nothing if not unreliable at the best of times, but I'm trying to gauge the likelihood of my making it to BWI.

Posted by: thecleve29 | February 7, 2010 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Hey all. Discovered this site over the weekend and am now completely hooked! The storm coverage by CWG and the participation of all the commenters made me feel like I was almost there to witness Snowmageddon myself. I'm a Maryland native but have been living abroad for a few years now. Was home for Christmas and got to experience Snowpocalypse, which was amazing, but I *SO* wish I could be there now, too!

Posted by: macalla | February 7, 2010 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Rain would actually be the worst outcome Tues-Wed, because it would weigh down the snow and we'd have even more structural collapses. Freezing rain would be nearly as bad. In this case, if we must have more precip, snow is the best bet, followed by a gradual warm up.

It bears re-mentioning to clear out the entrances to storm drains if there is one in your neighborhood (or anywhere you pass by).

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 7, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

Whoever coined the term 'adding insult to injury' must have had this winter in mind! The blizzard was surely the injury and this week may be the insult!

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 7, 2010 6:03 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Jerryflood1

I sent the following to

councilmember.ervin@montgomerycountymd

and similar to councilman Berliner and to WRC NBC TV, but its Sunday, and they are all warm too busy watching the superbowl.
OK, that's unfair, but this happens so often I am flustered and angry.

Dear Councilmember Ervin:

Pepco officials are not doing their jobs. And may people are suffering as a result.

We live in the Rock Creek Forest Section of Chevy Chase, and the power has been down since 10:00 pm Friday. It is cold, dark, and inconvenient at best.

It is now late Sunday, and not a single Pepco crew has been seen in the neighborhood.

This is outrageous.

Pepco does not maintain its lines in this area, does not do the necessary tree cutting in the right of way they control.

So when the inevitable snow, or wind comes, we suffer.

Pepco is also too slow to respond to downed lines and power outages.

Pepco has apparently let go the tree trimming crews and experienced line man.

As a result, in many passing storms, large or not, power disruptions result here.

Not only the power, but it is total failure of government in this modern age not to keep the power on in urban areas. The recent snow storm was area wide, yet the power outages were concentrated in your district.

xxxxx

A lot of good that email will do

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

@ ubimea - Government isn't responsible for power outages, it's a private enterprise. Also, the power companies can not control massive amounts of trees bringing powerlines down...it's a result of storms like this...NOTHING NEW (my power was out for 12 hours last night)...let's get back to weather forecast, shall we please?

Posted by: parksndc | February 7, 2010 6:15 PM | Report abuse

@ parksndc

I agree with the sentiment that this board primarily is about weatherforecasting (except when Andrew takes it political)

However, for the record Pepco is a regulated utility, subject to control by the Maryland Public Service Commission, and it is not a total private enterprise. And this past storm's effect on the local infrastructure, including the power grid, is a weather related story.

I am just trying to reach out for help to get the power back in my neighborhood.

Posted by: ubimea | February 7, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Not that it helps the folks in MoCo, but a friend of mine in Fairfax reported a crew coming to her house Friday morning to take down a dead tree that was above the power lines. At least in Virginia, there was pre-emptive action. I'm lucky to be in a condo with underground lines, so we were OK.

Very glad I have the day off tomorrow since I wasn't able to get my car dug out today. May have to deal with Metro later in the week, which I know will be over crowded.

To CWG, a mega Thank You for your work. It's so good to finally have a weather site I can trust. You've been uncannily correct this winter. You folks kick @ss. Be glad I'm now agnostic or I'd have to report your witchcraft to the Pope.

Posted by: ArlingtonGay | February 7, 2010 6:31 PM | Report abuse

Snowmageddon Junior?

SnowMcNiblet?

Minigeddon?

Posted by: HenryLux | February 7, 2010 6:34 PM | Report abuse

It's Superbowl weekend, how many kids are really hungry (starving). If so open feeding centers or deliver meals to places that are open, but risking the staff, custodians, vendors, teachers, lunch staff and children lives for a hot meal is ridiculous. How are people supposed to get to school, do we even know if the heat is working, if there are any leaks. OUTRAGEOUS. The last time the schools opened during a snow storm hardly anyone came and that's a FACT.

Posted by: mia_101mail | February 7, 2010 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Ian / Gang -- Regarding the GFS model trending toward a major event: How has that model performed with snowstorms this winter? Should we be concerned about its indications 48 hours out? And just as importantly, how much rain is it forecasting??

Posted by: Murre | February 7, 2010 6:38 PM | Report abuse

IF any students in DC can even make it in to school, there will be hardly any teachers to instruct them. It will be a non-learning day. Please call the 311 number for Fenty and tell him to reconsider his decision for DCPS. It needs to be closed for the safety of students and teachers. Metro isn't even open yet!

Posted by: JG55 | February 7, 2010 6:40 PM | Report abuse

@Murre:

GFS has been fairly good at targeting the storm, if anything, slightly underperforming the storm.

Now, that said, NAM has generally overperformed storms, and NAM has the Tuesday/Wednesday storm a lot weaker than NAM.

So my gut says GFS is probably more likely, but given the disparity in models, we really need to wait another day or so before we have good model agreement.

One thing I can say: GFS has been steadily increasing QPF for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. 2-3 days ago, it was showing only a dusting to 3" possible. Yesterday it was showing maybe 4-8" possible. Now it is showing 10-20" possible (unlikely to reach near that high end...at this point).

Posted by: RandC | February 7, 2010 6:43 PM | Report abuse

Ok, clearly I need to proofread my post! "Now, that said, NAM has generally overperformed storms, and NAM has the Tuesday/Wednesday storm a lot weaker than GFS."

Posted by: RandC | February 7, 2010 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, RandC. My heart is sinking.

Posted by: Murre | February 7, 2010 6:49 PM | Report abuse

No one is commenting on the fact that today seemed to be a lot warmer than predicted. It wasn't supposed to get above freezing, but it did and in NW DC there was a lot of melting. I'm assuming we'll see a lot more melting tomorrow. Our street might actually become passable, even without being plowed.

Please, someone give me hope that we won't get a thwacking Tuesday night. I don't understand all this NAM and GFS stuff, I just want my kids to go to school.

Posted by: motc | February 7, 2010 8:38 PM | Report abuse

FU, mother nature!

Posted by: bendan2000 | February 7, 2010 9:59 PM | Report abuse

“Washington digs out, keeps wary eye on sky”… people, IT’S ONLY SNOW! It’s not like this is Kansas and it’s tornado season “…keeps wary eye on sky”… give me a friggin break.

Posted by: oda155 | February 8, 2010 2:18 AM | Report abuse

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