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Posted at 3:30 PM ET, 02/ 1/2010

PM Update: Just a brief break in the action

By Ian Livingston

Light accumulation late Tue.; weekend may be big

* Two storms to be possible snow producers | Georgetown snow *
* Outside now? Temps, radar, winds & more: Weather Wall *

11:10 p.m. update: Latest data indicates parts of the metro area could see up to around 3" of snow late tomorrow. See the full forecast for tomorrow through the weekend below. We'll be back with more in the morning.

We've got snow on the ground, some snow expected tomorrow and the potential for more snow this weekend. While we wait on future threats, today has proven fairly nice if not a little cold for the beginning of February. A good deal of sun and relatively light winds have helped temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s feel about how they should -- chilly but not frigid.

Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. Refresh page to update. See this image bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through tonight: We're partly cloudy this evening, trending cloudier as the night progresses. Lows should fall to near 20 in the cold spots and the middle 20s downtown.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Tuesday will be cloudy after perhaps an early break in the clouds or two. By early-to-mid afternoon, precipitation should be moving toward or into the area from the south. It may start as rain in some spots, but should change over to snow by evening or before. Highs mainly in the mid-to-upper 30s, falling back a bit as snow gets underway.

Tomorrow night: Snow, mainly light, continues through the evening before ending overnight. Temperatures will only be marginally cold as the snow falls, so accumulation should be focused more on grassy (or snow covered) and elevated surfaces compared to this past weekend, except if precipitation turns a bit heavier late in the evening. Temperatures fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s for lows, and some iciness is likely into Wednesday morning.

Snow totals look to range from a coating to 2" or so. Amounts could be less or a little more depending on the system's exact track.

See Jason Samenow's full forecast through the week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

By Ian Livingston  | February 1, 2010; 3:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Georgetown Snow
Next: Some snow now... a lot of snow later?

Comments

First!

Posted by: snowedin85 | February 1, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

As I mentioned yesterday on this site. The situation Tue. would have to be watched closely.

Latest 18z NAM nearly doubles qpf vs 12z, though the SREF suppresses a little. HPC at 3pm gives a slight at least 10% chance of at least 4 inches of snow to parts of VA. and close to DC. Think this is overdone but agree with Ian that an inch or two is possible.

latest model trends, water vapor loop and radar returns give a more westward componet to the threat.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 1, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Sounds like evening rush hour could be even uglier than it normally is.

Posted by: JW211 | February 1, 2010 4:09 PM | Report abuse

Am repeating my following comment from the end of the discussion at the end of the previous post....
-------------------------------------------

Check out the ominous 2nd/final paragraph of this latest update from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center concerning this weekend's storm:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | February 1, 2010 4:25 PM | Report abuse

The upcoming weekend storm chatter already has folks buzzing!
My question is do we have enough cold air in place to get snow out of this or do we have a rain event?

Posted by: bodyiq | February 1, 2010 4:46 PM | Report abuse

Fellow spring lovers, remember, only 27 days til meteorological spring! From a climatological standpoint, we've normally got about 2-3 more weeks of favorable conditions for snow. After that, chances begin to diminish until they're all but gone by mid-March.

Even today, with temps only in the upper 30's, the sun is working hard melting the snow from Saturday. Of course, it was a dry snow, but the sun is still doing its work.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 1, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

bodyiq:
There will be plenty of cold air depending on track.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 1, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Any way at this point to know if tomorrow's storm will adversely affect the Tues. PM rush or the Wed. AM rush? Or both?

Necessitating - ahem - a leave-early situation Tuesday or a work-from-home situation Wednesday? :-)

Posted by: teezee210 | February 1, 2010 5:08 PM | Report abuse

Oh joy, court early on Wednesday morning. If it snows overnight that trek will be fun. The plows won't have time to catch up.

No big storm this weekend. Super Bowl parties on Sunday. The roads need to be clear.

Posted by: epjd | February 1, 2010 5:15 PM | Report abuse

I could see us mixing near the city this weekend, but that's not a given for sure. Someone's going to get crushed by this storm though I think and it could very well include us.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2010 5:20 PM | Report abuse

18z GFS, coming in, slams many in our region with a foot, or more of snow Fri. - Sat.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 1, 2010 5:27 PM | Report abuse

i'm not going to let myself believe in the weekend storm yet. "a foot" is too lovely to contemplate - just to have yanked away....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 1, 2010 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Walter:

I understand and agree.

The past 24 hr. runs have been trending toward a Major Storm. BUT......a sharp demarcation line could exist south of the Pa. line, as has been the case this winter.

DC seems to be on the borderline.

As Ian said, someone is going to be crushed!, the latest data suggests that DC may be in that area.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 1, 2010 6:04 PM | Report abuse

Now I know I am spoiled when I start thinking, "boy I hope we see more than a foot out of the storm this weekend!" A foot is nothing to shake a stick at, but it just seems so "normal" this winter, which is a good thing!

Posted by: snowlover | February 1, 2010 6:04 PM | Report abuse

The foot of snow is based on the 18Z GFS run which currently has DC near the northern edge of the storm. It has a bullseye on the VA/NC border with 24-30 inches of snow, assuming there is no mixing/rain.

Posted by: bdeco | February 1, 2010 6:13 PM | Report abuse

I am keeping my eye on tomorrow- I have class tomorrow evening after teaching all day- I can't say I'd be sorry to miss it. That would depend, of course, on the precipitation starting by 4, and giving us more than a dusting.

I am very excited by the weekend possibilities, but am trying to take a wait and see approach.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 1, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Come someone at CWG please put into plain english the afternoon update from the Hydrometeorological Center. Are they saying the "Low" will/could stall off the coast? Are we looking at the potential of another monster storm like we had in December?

Posted by: RWRose | February 1, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

It's not just the GFS, either -- in fact most models that run that far are giving the area or close by a very large snowstorm. It does look like the northern edge is fairly close at the moment (as AugustaJim notes), but this one should actually have a bit easier time coming north than the last given it's strength so it's probably good for snowlovers that we see the heaviest still south. The pattern which started to set up again prior to this weekend's storm -- reminiscent of what we had in December -- is just beautiful for this area really. HPC noted the strong blocking over Greenland that has been evident on and off this winter, which has given this area more snow than parts of New England to date. This is the type of pattern that produces our biggest storms, not totally unlike Dec 19. I can't help but think I'll be pretty sad to see this winter finally end.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2010 6:39 PM | Report abuse

Well, it would be better for us to get a foot of snow than for someone else to get the same precipitation as ice, so in that spirit of cooperation, bring on the snow!!

Posted by: celestun100 | February 1, 2010 6:43 PM | Report abuse

Still a month of MetWinter remaining...and often the first few days of March are pretty good for snow, too...remember last year.

Too bad that folks like ThinkSpring and omarthetentmaker keep trying to "rain" on our parade...literally...though Gottaswing probably won't cancel tomorrow night's dance...the Clarendon Ballroom frowns on weather cancellations. The dance at Glen Echo WAS cancelled Saturday night.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 1, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

"just beautiful for this area" in a weekend-plan ruining (yet again) and potentially Super Bowl party cancelling sort of way, perhaps. :-P What Super Bowl Sunday really needs is horrendous road conditions and 2 or 3 feet of snow, that would be perfect! :-P

I'll have to remember to visit this blog in the summer and cheer on the triple-digit temps the way most of you cheer for multiple feet of snow all winter.

Posted by: nocando | February 1, 2010 7:06 PM | Report abuse

@nocando


I can easily enjoy watching the Super Bowl from the comfort of my living room with a foot or two of snow on the ground (bring on the storm). If it snows that much I can see the Fed. Gov't having a shutdown on Monday.

Posted by: RWRose | February 1, 2010 7:25 PM | Report abuse

I love anticipating snow, then seeing it come down.

Then I get brought down by the media who make it seem like such a terrible thing.

More balance please!

Posted by: jaybird926 | February 1, 2010 7:33 PM | Report abuse

OK, here is when I have class this week- Tuesday evening, Friday evening, and Saturday day. I keep pinching myself. The possible timing of snow (for me) couldn't be better :) I need to keep in mind the word POSSIBLE....

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 1, 2010 7:36 PM | Report abuse

I love the snow too. Not ice, though.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 1, 2010 7:37 PM | Report abuse

Gotta love Ian's enthusiasm. He is always the one who is the most optimistic when it comes to the potential for winter storms. Thank you, Ian.
Now, can any one tell me when the last time DCA (or the equivalent measuring station for DC) recorded two or more storms of 12+ inches in the same season? The odds have to be quite formidable. Not that it can't - or won't - happen, it just seems like such a long shot.
Also, there is always the banter between the snow lovers and the spring and warmer weather lovers. Can't we all just get along? :-)
I love this region for a few reasons and one of them is 4 seasons. There is something to be said about every season. I love the snow. Give me tons and I will be smiling. I love spring. Even though it can sometimes seem like it's only a few weeks long, we can rival the prettiest springs found in the world. Summer is like winter. I love being able to walk around outside without having to worry about my extremities freezing off. And the fall, my personal favorite. Come on. Outside of New England, we can have some great colors and temps. A welcome relief to the high humidity of the mid-atlantic region. Not every year is perfect but that keeps me hoping, dreaming, for the right ingredients for a great season. Sometimes they do happen. Like two 12+ inch snow storms in one season.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 1, 2010 7:38 PM | Report abuse

@nocando In those summer months you want to cheer, we snowlovers are feeling about how ThinkSpring is now - like get it over with already. Fortunately, it's the calendar that dictates the seasons and not the cheers or jeers of anyone on this board. As a life-long "rush rush rush busy important everything" Washingtonian I cheer every time there is a chance we will be forced to defer to Mother Nature and spend a day at home in the nest.

Posted by: ArlingtonSnowGal | February 1, 2010 7:40 PM | Report abuse

I like all the seasons and do not think that my "wishcasting" has any effect on the weather. Except perhaps when my kids did the snow dance on Friday night.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 1, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

Well said, pjdunn1!

I feel the same way.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 1, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

I'm really grateful that we live in a place which for once in a great long while, is experiencing four seasons. Possibly, that appreciation is what motivated Vivaldi to write one of the most beautiful classical pieces ever. I choose not to be drawn in by the negativity of naysayers who want to rain on the snowlovers parade. And I'm also very interested to here how the giant arctic insect is progressing, walter?

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 1, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse

Ok, there seems to be a divide developing and I certainly don't want that.

But, I will add this....

On a less personal level, all local municipalities have completely blown their snow removal budgets for the year. Where's the money gonna come from if the rest of the month continues like the rest of the winter has? Richmond city officials are now publicly stating that they need 2-3 weeks of no snow in order to recover from the last storm. That's not even considering the dangerous road conditions it creates.

So, the snow has a broader effect than our personal likes/dislikes.

Just think we should all keep that in mind.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 1, 2010 8:22 PM | Report abuse

I know it is probably too far out, but when is it looking like the weekend event will start? I'm headed to the DC Improv for the 8 PM show in Friday and want to make it back to Sterling without getting stuck in DC.

Posted by: kridgely | February 1, 2010 8:36 PM | Report abuse

I am getting a little chuckle from those of you stomping your feet about another possible storm. It's not like those of us who love them can control whether we get them or not for crying out loud. Cut us some slack... we have not had any since 2003 til this season and its not like we can control whether or not we get them. Sorry if the weather inconveniences you. Welcome to planet Earth.

CWG...looking forward to another great lead up to (crossing fingers) another big storm. You guys are the best!!!

Posted by: weatherwatcher | February 1, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

Love this blog! I guess some years the snow removal budget isn't used and some years it's over budget.

Posted by: 3seasons | February 1, 2010 9:01 PM | Report abuse

Concerning the Tuesday night storm, I'm looking forward to the next update. WTOP says best chance east of I-95, yet this afternoon's HTC map shows best chance of 4+" in central VA. I'm also curious about the timing. Thoughts?

Posted by: spgass1 | February 1, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

manassasmissy,
it's emerging....i only had a few hours to work/play on the insect today due to the cool temps. the temp needs to be warm enough to work the snow... just need a few more hours tomorrow to finish, but may not get that. may get snow instead!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 1, 2010 9:11 PM | Report abuse

0Z NAM is getting more aggresive with precip totals for tomorrow night! If it holds true, snow could see 3"+

Posted by: snowlover | February 1, 2010 9:20 PM | Report abuse

0z NAM run actually shows more snow for North and West than South and East.

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 1, 2010 9:21 PM | Report abuse

@ Weatherwatcher,

My thoughts exactly!! How dull this world would be without weather.

Posted by: SpeedLimit186000 | February 1, 2010 9:24 PM | Report abuse

00z NAM gives 2 - 4 inches for much of the area.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 1, 2010 9:26 PM | Report abuse

pjdunn1, I'm only optimistic about the good threats! ;) I just feel at this point it's worth thinking about this winter in the grand scheme of winters around here. It's already something special (about equal to the last 3 snow-wise) and if the next week pans out in any good way it may head quickly toward "real special"... i.e., top xx in records. I enjoy anomalous conditions regardless of type. You'll find me here cheering on 100 degree days if and when we get them.

Separately, on the NAM for tomorrow -- would look for at least a little more support before buying it fully. It’s now one of the wetter solutions and in some ways it looks a little overdone. But this is our winter it seems..

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2010 9:44 PM | Report abuse

My kids have had ONE full week of school since mid-December. Between teacher workdays, MLK day, and a delayed ice opening, we just never seem to string 5 days together. So, I really have to laugh at people who like snow because it provides a 'break'. A break from what? And no, this is not a 'childcare' issue for me. I see a problem with educating small children who do not have a consistent and sane school schedule. We either need to learn to deal with the snow and go to school/work, or we need to go in the summer when we can stretch consecutive days together. I hate the chaos the ensues due to this weather.

Posted by: 1Reader | February 1, 2010 9:47 PM | Report abuse

Just spent the last 15 minutes reading everyone's posts. After such a dry winter last year, I am loving the mere possibility of multiple inches of snow. God I love this blog!

Posted by: teezee210 | February 1, 2010 9:49 PM | Report abuse

One additional comment on the 00z NAM.

If taken literally about the qpf, you also have to take literally the 2m temperatures of 33-34 degrees in DC, though temps. aloft support snow. May be an elevation event to the west of DC, if taken literally.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 1, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

@Dylan0513

You're right, tonight's NAM model no longer favors south and east for accumulations tomorrow as it was earlier, and fact shows a bit of a slant to the north and west. This may be due to an increasing emphasis on the influence of some upper-level energy coming in from the west and interacting with the coastal storm.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

Hi folks - How about an update on driving from Baltimore to Rockville, tomorrow afternoon at 3? Please tell me I don't have to be stuck in Baltimore?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 1, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

1Reader, FOX5 says Fauquier Co Schools are closed tomorrow... Warren Co was 2 hrs late this morning, but with buses only operating on hard surface roads.

AugustaJim, do you how the models did in predicting your -6F? I'm normally on the cold side, but haven't been *that* cold in recent nights. Currently 22.3F

Posted by: spgass1 | February 1, 2010 10:32 PM | Report abuse

For those wondering about two 12 inch snowfalls in D.C. in a single winter. check this page http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/snohist.htm

The short answer is Feb. 1899, which must be the snowiest month on record in Washington's history.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 1, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

GFS output seems to align fairly well with the NAM for tomorrow, on the liquid increase at least.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2010 10:50 PM | Report abuse

So, the snow has a broader effect than our personal likes/dislikes.

Just think we should all keep that in mind.
===

Stop being such a whiny female dog, you cat.

Posted by: mason08 | February 1, 2010 10:54 PM | Report abuse

Indeed, Fauquier Schools are close. Why, we are wondering mightily ...

Posted by: weathergrrl | February 1, 2010 11:04 PM | Report abuse

Just got a look at the 00z models. Kinda hard to argue against accumulating snow tomorrow night--about 2-3 inches worth, no?

If that happens, I'd like to find the last time DCA had three "pure" snowstorms in a row!

Pat Michaels

Posted by: pmichaels1 | February 1, 2010 11:08 PM | Report abuse

00z GFS prints out .28in of liquid at IAD (Dulles) 00Z NAM .49in of liquid. Both have trended up from todays earlier model runs. 10 to 1 rain to snow ratio 3-5 inches Tuesday night - Wednesday Morning. Model to watch for the weekend storm is the ECMWF - European Forecast Model. Its been more consistent & accurate this winter. http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwf.html

Posted by: pseaby | February 1, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

fyi, a quickie update posted a few minutes ago at the top of this post regarding the snow potential late tomorrow.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | February 1, 2010 11:19 PM | Report abuse

00Z GFS is depicting a warmer solution in the mid levels of the atmosphere for the weekend storm. According to this particular run, it appears to begin as a mixture of precip before kicking to and ending as snow Saturday PM...which could certainly cut down on snow totals. However, 1.50" of liquid during the period!

Posted by: HomantheSnowman | February 1, 2010 11:43 PM | Report abuse

Was out of town for the recent 6 inch storm, but returned in time for tonight's minor snow event and the potential major storm over the weekend. I have been in DC for 20 years and other than 1996, this seems to be the snowiest winter (in 96, all the snow melted after a heavy rain and Great Falls had a historic flood).

Ironic that the major snows have been weekend events. Loves this board and the CWG!

Posted by: BidsKids | February 2, 2010 6:58 AM | Report abuse

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