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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 02/22/2010

PM Update: Showers quickly moving through

By Ian Livingston

Lots of clouds this week, also some snow?

* February climate facts and near feats | Weather Wall | Get There *

Rain, mainly light and showery, has developed across the area this afternoon and it looks like it will not last too long. Otherwise, cloudy skies have helped keep high temperatures in the low 40s, down compared to yesterday and well below average for the date. Though you may have to dodge some drips for the commute home, they should be mostly out of here by late this evening.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through tonight: The bulk of the rain showers move through during the late afternoon and evening, with just a sprinkle or two possible after midnight or so. Overall rain amounts should be light, which is good news since higher totals combined with melting snow could have caused flooding concerns. Lows? Mainly in the mid-and-upper 30s.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): We start out mostly cloudy and stay that way as a coastal system slowly lifts away to the northeast. We should stay largely precipitation-free but a random light shower is possible. Highs make a run for the mid-40s. Winds shift to out of the northwest and become a bit stronger -- 10-15 mph -- late in the day.

Midweek snow? See Jason Samenow's full forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Fenty snow troubles? A Clarus Research Group survey over the weekend highlighted the fact that D.C. residents were generally unhappy with how well things were cleared following Snowmageddon and Snoverkill. Clarus found that 64 percent of D.C. voters believe Fenty only did a "fair" or "poor" job in the aftermath. Maybe he should not have said we'd "be ready for business on Monday morning" as Snowmageddon was ongoing?

By Ian Livingston  | February 22, 2010; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: On the edge of a major storm

Comments

First!

looks wet outside...but not raining hard enough to notice here in Arlington.


Kim

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | February 22, 2010 3:25 PM | Report abuse

Just went out to grab the mail, and it is definitely wet, but not raining very hard. Oh, and I am loving the wet Spring smell!

Posted by: HokieTerp | February 22, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

Is it just me, or does anyone else read Jason Samenow's last name as Jason SameSNOW? I always do a double take... I ask myself-snow obsessed much? ;)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 22, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

@Snowlover2,

LOL! I can't say that I have ever read Jason's name like that, but I can understand your "snow obsessed". I have thought about going out to the front yard and doing what Walter-in-Falls-Church does so well. Then sanity comes rocking back into my life and I go back to following the weather models. Nah... I'm not snow obsessed. ;-)

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 22, 2010 4:36 PM | Report abuse

pjdunn1,
are you calling me insane?! i mean, i'm not denying it...LOL....just wondering.... ;-)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 22, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

Isn't about time that the Capital Weather Gang updates their little circular logo thingie at the top of the page to include SNOW?!?! hee hee

Posted by: MarylanDChris | February 22, 2010 4:59 PM | Report abuse

pjdunn1,
do those models say anything i want to hear?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 22, 2010 4:59 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch,

Never would I call you insane. Maybe a wee bit obsessed with the snow, not unlike some of us. My point is that I am suggesting that going from one snow thing (sculptures) to another snow thing( model hugging) was a little obsessive.

Speaking of the models... at the moment they are not giving any of us snow lovers a lot to cheer about. There is some chatter about a system next week but it is too far out to discuss, except to say the GFS is notorious for showing something in the long range and it never seems to get any closer. An example is the door at the end of the hallway in a bad dream... no matter how fast you run towards it, it never gets any closer.
Hold onto the fact that we are in a productive pattern. We just need the pieces to fall into place at the right time, and soon. Climatology is working increasingly faster against us who love snow.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 22, 2010 5:34 PM | Report abuse

I see the snow suggestion for our logo-- perhaps it should be considered. But this season has been quite the DC weather exception! Right now in downtown DC it's 36 with rain. So raw and wet. Can anyone find this enjoyable??

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 22, 2010 5:48 PM | Report abuse

Camden, it might be the first time it's really felt like winter in DC this month!

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 22, 2010 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Ooh Camden. Did you use a can opener or just a sharp knife or screwdriver to open that can of worms? With all the emotional debate this winter over snow/no snow, you can expect a few people to come out in favor of this "raw and wet" weather.
I like the idea of snow in the logo. Considering that this winter is an anomaly, how about seasonal logos? In the winter you would include the snow. In the summer, not.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 22, 2010 5:55 PM | Report abuse

@Ian,
Never a truer statement!

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 22, 2010 5:57 PM | Report abuse

Comment on the Fenty comment and poll: Perhaps he shouldn't have said on Channel 4 in an AM interview last week that he more or less had no idea when the snow would be cleared, and it was up to Mother Nature. As WaPo said this AM, he was a lot more proactive when he was a DC Council member. I don't think much of his performance (and I live in Loudoun! :) ).

Sheesh, does he *not* want to be re-elected? Does he not have any trusted advisors to tell him that he's being an idiot?

On the CWG logo, sure, add snow. Don't know if it will help or hurt, and don't know what 'help' or 'hurt' mean. :) But, on the 'bad' WX side, snow should have its day.

Posted by: leesweet | February 22, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

leesweet, I don't really totally fault DC for the difficulty.. it was a very rare situation. BUT, Fenty's comments throughout have been odd... like he is sort of clueless.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 22, 2010 6:25 PM | Report abuse

I wish it would snow.

I don't know why I am defending Fenty, but, I think most cities like D.C. that aren't regularly in a snow belt would have had trouble with that amount of snow.

Also, it was pretty cold for awhile during those storms, something that doesn't seem to happen often here.

It seems to me that the snow pattern is, snow a lot and then melt quickly. Those 2 blizzards were practically back to back. I just don't see how you can blame the mayor.

On the other hand, I don't live in DC, so I have no idea how bad it was.

I live in Moco and I am wondering why my neighbors still have chairs and so forth in their parking spaces.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 22, 2010 6:32 PM | Report abuse

@Ian, Exactly.
@Celestun100: It wasn't the fact they didn't clear everything immediately, it was the fact that Fenty more or less said: 'Eh, wait until it melts.' MD's Gov said: 'This is a freaking disaster, stay off the roads until we can clean it up.' (Drifting on 340, etc.)

But Fenty acts like he's *not* in charge. Arg...

There are ways to properly communicate about disasters. Fenty will be a textbook case on what not to do.

Posted by: leesweet | February 22, 2010 6:52 PM | Report abuse

I am the kind who likes any kind of weather - in moderation though.

Give me lots of 6 to 8" snow storms. Give me few hot days and a break and hot again. I love love thunderstorms. The only thing I don't like is tornadoes. There is too much unpredictability with those.

I am firmly on the wall between snow lovers and snow haters. I love shoveling. I helped out neighbors. But I can't take anymore blizzards until the glacier on my roof melts. I have to be weebit selfish :-)

Posted by: RoseVA | February 22, 2010 6:55 PM | Report abuse

Ugh. Anyone who gleefully anticipated the weather we're having right now is definitely a masochist :'(

Posted by: kolya02 | February 22, 2010 7:31 PM | Report abuse

The 18z GFS (which is in the process of running) suggest the Wed-Thru Low will be closer to us (which would mean some snow) but it has not finished yet. We were very spoiled this year by consistent model runs which delivered snow forecasts 4 to 5 days out but the European and GFS have been all over the place lately. The GFS changes it's forecast almost every run. I don't really "root" for it to snow but I really love following the weather. I think it is an addiction.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 22, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

ntrlsol,
if everything comes together like it could for wed-thur, what accumulations are we talking about? 4"?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 22, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

walter-in-fallschurch

I am terrible at predicting snow or rain accumulations. That is one of the reasons I come to CWG. They are excellent in this area (among others). But since it has been relatively warm the last couple of days, I imagine that it would have to snow hard (or heavy) in order to overcome the surface temps. Could that happen? Sure. Will it? I just don't know. We may not even know until Wednesday morning.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 22, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch ,
@ntrlsol,

Love the enthusiasm. Hope it snows. I really do. And it looks like it might. A little. The setup for a significant event (4 or more inches) does not appear to be going to happen. Not that it won't, just doesn't seem likely. The upper level energy coming from the NW and the energy coming from the southern jet stream don't look like they are going to come together in time to do us in the mid-Atlantic any good. We just might see enough energy to give us some snow showers or even an inch or two (would be surprised)of snow. The cold air looks to be marginal but enough to give us frozen precipitation. Just not enough oomph for any more snow sharks. I am sure the CWG is cringing at my forecast but that is the way I see it.
Love your work Walter. :-)

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 22, 2010 8:17 PM | Report abuse

Doppler indicates that there may be some frozen precip falling in western Fairfax/Montgomery Countries. When I was out earlier in Alexandria, I thought I heard some sleet on the car but could not confirm. Anybody seeing anything out there?

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 22, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse

In my eyes there is some surprise potential with the late wed/thur event, but the current storm has a fairly good shot at messing up that potential. Without it we might see a much bigger threat right now. I keep thinking it will try to inch in and in the upper levels some things have trended better for snow recently, but there is still a way to go. If we don't see much movement with tonight's runs or at the latest tomorrow it is probably just a near miss as it currently seems.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 22, 2010 8:24 PM | Report abuse

I was surprised to feel some soft pellets earlier this evening when I went out in the cold rain. So, for my area (Lake Linganore), it seems like we have rain mixed with sleet. Nothing sticking, though.

Posted by: JSTF | February 22, 2010 8:26 PM | Report abuse

I just looked out the window, I am not sure what kind of precip it is (south Alexandria) but it is not plain rain. Looks like a little ice is forming on the trees.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 22, 2010 8:34 PM | Report abuse

thanks for the replies, guys. i'm more interested in 4" to get the monthly record. actually, there's plenty of snow still around. i'd like to see a streak of mostly sub-freezing cloudy days - something to make it worth reincarnating the weird snow pile in my yard as something else....

pjdunn1, loved/hated your description of the GFS as presenting those nightmare "end of the hallway" scenerios that never materialize...funny.

saturday looks very busy on the NWS "at a glance" forcast.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 22, 2010 8:36 PM | Report abuse

Walter, maybe we'll at least get enough snow to sculpt a piranha (perfect for D.C.). Or a barracuda. ; ))

I so want 4" at DCA. But we'll probably get 2.3" IF we're lucky.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 22, 2010 9:35 PM | Report abuse

The NAM, first big run of 0z, took a big step into the "surprise" direction.. see if it has any support as the night goes on. The overall pattern looks ripe.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 22, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Ian CWG;
That is INTERESTING since the past NAM runs have been taking it off to the south

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 22, 2010 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Hey guys, I see that you are posting about NAM and GFS to help predict stuff. Where do you find it and can you explain what exactly they are? Thanks

Posted by: aaf314 | February 22, 2010 10:19 PM | Report abuse

@kolya02
There were plenty of folks on CWG earlier today who were totally "anticipating" and dancing for this cold rain, i.e. the snow-haters, but I imagine that tonight, they are out playing in it, as those must do as victims of that weather persuasion.

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 22, 2010 10:32 PM | Report abuse

@aaf314, CWG and others can elaborate further (Or correct me), but both the NAM/GFS are modelling systems/programs employed by Meteorologists for the projection of near future weather trend predictions. They incorporate as many variables as possible, including but not limited to the Jet Stream, Pressure systems, and so on, which in turn affects Prevailing wind patterns, Storm formation, etc. Different results usually come about through differing algorithms, and any number of possible atmospheric interferences included in the data input.

NAM= North American Mesoscale Model (Mesoscale means anything ranging from 6 to 600 miles in scale).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Mesoscale_Model

GFS= Global Forecast System.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

Posted by: TheAnalyst | February 22, 2010 10:37 PM | Report abuse

GFS keeps us out of any significant snow Wed-Thurs, but I still think there's some potential, as NAM has a good track record this winter of better capturing interaction with upper-level enery moving from the west as the low comes up the coast. However, even the latest nam run keeps the really good vertical velocities east of the western shore of the Bay and northeast of Baltimore. I'd like to see that come back west/southwest a bit before getting excited about any snow potential.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | February 22, 2010 11:13 PM | Report abuse

If we do manage to get any considerable snowfall out of this mid-week event, then this definitely sounds like it will be our "Snowprise!" of the Season lol (They always seem to happen around March too).

Posted by: TheAnalyst | February 23, 2010 1:23 AM | Report abuse

TheAnalyst - yes unfortunately it does remain a low confidence forecast through this week.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 23, 2010 1:36 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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