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Posted at 8:00 PM ET, 02/ 2/2010

Snow advances through the area this evening

By Ian Livingston

2-4"+ accumulation possible along with tricky travel

* Winter Storm Warning metro area late afternoon & tonight *
* Winter Weather Advisory far southern suburbs (map) *
* Prospects for late-week snow: SLCB | Georgetown snow photos *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* News, traffic and storm impacts: Local home page *

Snow is currently advancing from the southwest and will overspread the area this evening, before continuing into the night. Temperatures that made it into the upper 30s and around 40 will cool back through the 30s as precipitation begins, but should remain warm enough to ease evening commute concerns in most spots. If you are among those hoping for an early end to winter, the groundhog says you might have to wait a while.


The CWG team's predicted snow accumulations later today and tonight. Forecast confidence is Medium.

Through tonight: Snow, with perhaps brief rain to start, gets underway by early evening most spots and continues into the night. Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snow are possible during the late evening, probably 8 p.m until around midnight. Things taper after, but not before a nice little accumulation. 2-4" seems likely, with some spots receiving a bit more. Lows drop to the mid-and-upper 20s.

SchoolCast
FedCast capitol-black.jpgcapitol-gray.jpgcapitol-gray.jpgcapitol-gray.jpg

Tomorrow (Wednesday): With only a few short hours to clear and treat roads, the morning commute could be quite tricky, especially in the suburbs where temperatures will be coldest. Some delays and/or cancellations seem likely, though we will warm nicely under partly sunny skies to afternoon readings near 40. So melting should make for an easier evening commute.

See Matt Rogers' full forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

By Ian Livingston  | February 2, 2010; 8:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Moderate/heavy snow sweeping over region

Comments

Definitely will start as rain here in DC - lets see how long it takes for the column to cool...

Posted by: DullesARC | February 2, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

The Fed wont close, they will force you to use vacation days, or risk your life on the road.

Posted by: SA-Town | February 2, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Update: Current temp 30.9 east of Front Royal. Temp has dropped 3.4 degrees in last hour. Snow beginning to accumulate.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 2, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Why do you guys think NWS is forecasting such high amounts right now?

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 2, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Snowing at a pretty decent clip in Charlottesville...temp was 37 at onset and we had no mixing. Not sticking to roads but of course sticking to current snow cover as well as cars.

Posted by: crozet | February 2, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Let's hope this thread stays civil and doesn't get hijacked. Following these storms this winter has been greatly enhanced by this new community that has been so good at educating a whole lot of us.

Posted by: kgc1 | February 2, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, why is NWS forcasting 3-6 inches?

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

it's actually 3-7 where i am in Falls Church: Tonight: Snow. Low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 2, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

@kgc1 - I agree!

Posted by: ThinkGreen | February 2, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

We're going a little lower than NWS (but not by a lot-- we're talking just an inch or two lower) primarily because of warmer temps to start (which we think will cut down accumulations some).

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

You guys do a great job! Great insight and honesty...

I've got my fingers crossed for tonight's snowmaker and at least a delayed opening for the gov't tomorrow (I'd hope to see at least a 2 1/2 Capitol dome Fedcast!) but am really looking forward to this weekend's event.

Nice that it's been snowing out in the foothills, but do you think the warm temps here will affect the accumulation? Do you still expect most of the snow to hold off until after sundown now?

Posted by: DaveB2 | February 2, 2010 3:49 PM | Report abuse

yeah I don't see any problem with it being an inch or 2 different. come on guys, a little slack for these guys plese! :)

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 2, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Ok, thanks CWG....I was typing my post while you were obviously typing yours and somehow answering my questions! Wow...you guys are really good!

Posted by: DaveB2 | February 2, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Traffic camera shows snow beginning in Warrenton.

Posted by: DOG3521 | February 2, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

I actually hope you are right, ine the 2-4 range.. I have to drive from East Falls Church to Chantilly at 6:30. Its a slow commute on any day on 66 W..so going even slower I won't mind if it's snowing a tad :)

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 2, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Starting to come down as white stuff a bit here in Ashburn

Posted by: voltron88x | February 2, 2010 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Tiny snowflakes in Manassas. You have to hurt your eyes to see them.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 2, 2010 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Yep, a few tiny flakes just started coming down now in South Riding, VA.

Posted by: cotterpinx | February 2, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

I was not criticizing CWG, I am just curious because on the last storm NWS was saying less snow and this time more. CWG answered my question and gave a good explanation. :)
warm ground may= less accumulation

I just want more snow!

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Current conditions in Burke: 41.7 with little flurries!

Woo hoo!

Posted by: Yellowboy | February 2, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Tiny flakes in Fair Lakes!

Posted by: veronica7 | February 2, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse

flurries out my window in Centreville 39F.

Posted by: mchristinaw | February 2, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse

CWG,

Any thoughts on the 18z run of the NAM bringing in the warmer air and continuing an (what seems like) inevitable north trend of the low for this weekend? I know it's at it's furthest range at 84 hrs but it is showing what I have been fearing might happen. One can only hope that the north trend we have been witnessing this winter will reverse itself just a tad this time. We snow lovers don't want to see any large amount of qpf go to waste as rain or the dreaded mix.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 2, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Waiting for the snow in Alexandria, and hoping for a liberal leave at the office tomorrow. After all, these snow events are far better when it gets kids and adults a snow day.

Posted by: MasonPatriot1 | February 2, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for doing a great job CWG. I highly enjoy reading this blog.

Hope we get a bunch, my 2 year old loves to sled! This has been a great winter for a 2 year old.

Posted by: allisondt | February 2, 2010 4:06 PM | Report abuse

It started in Vienna!

Posted by: bettylou1 | February 2, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

looking at the newest models regarding the weekend storm i think its pretty likely well end up being mostly rain or mix depending on surface temps. 540 line a little south now= north in 3 days

Posted by: cjespn | February 2, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

snowing in Herndon now.

Posted by: rosered_14 | February 2, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

@pjdunn1

For many of our big storms, mixing enters the equation -- at least along and east of I-95 (2003 and 1996 storms both mixed in these areas). Mixing looks like a possibility with this one as well...we won't have the same cold pool we've had with other storms this year. It's going to be close.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Snowing at a moderate rate in Charlottesville now. It has been snowing for about 90 minutes now and the roads are still clear -- not sticking yet.

Posted by: shmoozer | February 2, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

Is this weekend's storm slipping away from all snow solution for DC. I was just reading NOAA's forecast discussion and they were mentioning consensus with models for last few days. I thought we were looking good?

Posted by: FHDC | February 2, 2010 4:29 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the quick response CWG!

The snow tonight is going to have a tough time sticking to the roads, at least for the onset. The surface temps are too warm and there is rush hour traffic on top of that. Later tonight (after 9 or 10 PM) when the temps fall off and the snow picks up in intensity, there will be a better chance.

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 2, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Snowing to beat the band (Who? Yes. Yes?) in Strasburg...

Posted by: ValleyCaps | February 2, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

The NAM at 84 is like the GFS at 200... not usually the best ever for real-world solution. I do "worry" a bit about mixing, but it still shows a quick transfer around that time with cold air filtering back in behind the coastal. It could be a sign we won't be all snow though if it continues.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Ditto KCG1, i love following this wild winter on this site, and always like browsing the comments from the (mostly) knowledgable crew. Keep up the good work!

Posted by: JDK4 | February 2, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

Concerning the timing, NBC4 just mentioned the more moderate snow happening later (12-3a) I think.

First measurement= 0.75"

Posted by: spgass1 | February 2, 2010 4:36 PM | Report abuse

We have a pretty steady snowfall in Reston, VA at 4:36pm.

Posted by: parksndc | February 2, 2010 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Bastardi is still fully on board. I know he gets knocked around but lately he has been spot on. Ignore the costume....

Check this out: http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2010/02/and_now_for_something_completely_zany_look_carefully.asp

Posted by: FHDC | February 2, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

37 degrees and didly squat in Alexandria @ 4:42

Posted by: SJ43560 | February 2, 2010 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Just to continue off conversation from the last thread ... we welcome comments here whether they are compliments or criticisms. The beauty of this form is that we can interact with you and vice-versa, and that all of our forecasts are archived for eternity. Sure, the interactive venue and accountability of archived forecasts opens us up for criticism, but honestly that only helps us do better.

One other note, for those who don't like hedging... unfortunately that is just a part of weather forecasting, at least until the models become much more accurate such that, combined with our knowledge and instincts, we can regularly issue forecasts with near-100 percent confidence. I wouldn't hold your breath. And believe it or not, even sites like AccuWeather play the hedging game: "Snow totals are expected to range from a slippery coating to an inch or two from Washington, D.C., to New York City. Some areas within this zone could pick up as much as 4 inches" -- from an earlier version of http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-story.asp?region=eastusnews

Disclaimer: I, for one, have no issues with forecasters at AccuWeather or any other outlet really (now, whether AccuWeather's news people over-hype the weather at times is another story, and everyone is welcome their opinion on that). Bottom line, we're all trying our best, we all win some and lose some, and one winter or even a few storms does not make a track record. We hope that we're as accurate as the science and our skills allow us to be, and that we are doing a good job communicating the forecast and covering the details people care about as much as the data allows.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

i saw the Bastardi video earlier, he said a Foot for DC this weekend I believe..

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 2, 2010 4:45 PM | Report abuse

little flurries in bethesda, md now. CWG any estimate that the school apples will go up to 2 1/2? also any guess of what montgomery county will do for tomorrow? whens the next update?
thanks i love you guys!!

Posted by: jjsoccer1125 | February 2, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

@jjsoccer1125

The apples are pretty much set for the storm, region wide, 2 is about right. Now, as the evening progresses and the storm sets up where it is going to snow the heaviest, those areas might see a localized increased chance of delays and closures, but those sort of features are very localized (in relation to the whole area) and won't be known for a while.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

Ian,

Thanks for the comment on the NAM at 84 hrs. That was one of the reasons for my last question. The other was about the trend north and I thank the rest of the gang for commenting on the mixing issues in these types of storms.
Is this really my third post in one hour?!
I've got to move on to other things, like dinner, the cat, and looking out the window watching for the first snow flake... Aargh!

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 2, 2010 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Few snow flakes in Lake Ridge.

Posted by: ZmanVA | February 2, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

The northward trend in the storm track with each successive model run as we get closer to an event has become a theme this winter. It's also been interesting to see how typically snowy areas in PA, NY, VT, and NH have missed out on the snows from the bigger coastal systems. Regarding the late week event, key forecasting questions are: where does the northward trend stop, and what does that mean for precip type in the metro area? I think CWG's current thinking on this is on target. Stay tuned...

Also, if you're away from the Web but have Twitter on your cell phone, please follow us at @capitalweather. Report the current conditions in your area, including snowfall amounts. I think we're using #dcsnow as the tag for this one again.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse

much like weather channel's primetime programming, accuweather works hard to add excitement to a topic many people (not us weather geeks of course) find boring

their heavy use of action verbs and exclamation points reminds of a batman rerun, you'd think every 2 inch storm is the end of the world

Joe B has a trick of comparing model runs to years past, then comparing the setup to storms from the past, and 9 times out of 10 overforecasts the snow and/or cold - last weekend's 5 incher was supposed to be a foot, and he's called for 4-6 many times we've gotten rain, been watching him since 2003, and never seen him come in low

what accuweather does in not forecasting, it's pure hype, I'd have more respect if they just did what the weather channel does which is forecast accurately, but then send Mike Siedel out to twist and turn in the wind while people behind him walk normally

Posted by: TGT11 | February 2, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse

The radar images on this site, NWS, AccuWx, and others have been showing precip inside the Beltway for several hours now, but there has been no visible snow nor rain outside my window here in downtown DC - and no other reports of snow this close in. Is this virga on the radar, or something else? thanks!

Posted by: TheBorg | February 2, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse

Flurries in Silver Spring

Posted by: Dylan0513 | February 2, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse

Light but steady in Bethesda; started in past 10 minutes

Posted by: sparman | February 2, 2010 5:08 PM | Report abuse

It's been snowing big fat flakes for almost 45 min in Harpers Ferry. My roof icicles are still dripping.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 2, 2010 5:09 PM | Report abuse

leesburg reporting in
snowing since 4
deck covered
gravel driveway covered
concrete walkway covered
outside temp 32.7

Posted by: mandarb77 | February 2, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Looks like Dulles temp has dropped about 3 degrees in the past hour. Cold air starting to move in.

Posted by: GD1975 | February 2, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Moderate snow with large, wet flakes in Ashburn. Just starting to stick on roads. Here we go AGAIN! ;-)

Posted by: bodyiq | February 2, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

We had a few flakes in Fairfax right off the Beltway... now nothing :-(

Posted by: teezee210 | February 2, 2010 5:20 PM | Report abuse

Flurries just started 5 minutes ago in Laytonsville, MD.

CWG: For what it's worth, this is a fantastic site and you all (including the enthusiasts who post regularly) have educated me over the past few years. The variables you have to deal with to make educated guesses are numerous, and the demand from the public to get those guesses right all of the time seems intimidating. Glad you all are here, making weather events fun and understandable.
Thank you!

So, GOT SNOW?

Posted by: dprats21 | February 2, 2010 5:21 PM | Report abuse

Light snow in N. Silver Spring (Layhill/Bel Pre). Sidewalks and windshields are already covered.

Posted by: Hanz1 | February 2, 2010 5:27 PM | Report abuse

Still nothing here in downtown DC....

Posted by: TheBorg | February 2, 2010 5:28 PM | Report abuse

spgass, what you experienced in Front Royal, with that one-hour temperature drop, was probably evaporative cooling as the falling snow and virga is absorbed into the dry atmosphere. That, of course, moistens up the air, and the precip eventually reaches the ground.

It's now snowing off-and-on in Vienna.....flurries started about 45 minutes ago.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | February 2, 2010 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Flurries in Tysons Corner

Posted by: allisondt | February 2, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Steady very light snow started in Olney at about 5:00.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Snow has been coming down at a steady clip here in downtown Frederick, MD for the last forty-five minutes at least. The snow's starting to stick to cars/trees/etc. Not really seeing it sticking to the sidewalks or roads yet . . .

Posted by: dettiot | February 2, 2010 5:35 PM | Report abuse

steady moderately big snowflakes in bethesda right now. doesnt look like it is sticking to roads yet....

Posted by: jjsoccer1125 | February 2, 2010 5:36 PM | Report abuse

Current conditions in Burke: 39.0 with snow coming down at a nice clip. : )

Posted by: Yellowboy | February 2, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Nothing here in Gloucester, Massachusetts!

Sorry, guys. I moved up here last summer. We have missed the last two storms, and we'll miss this one upcoming on the weekend. NOAA up here is portraying this weekend for you guys as a major event-another I'll not partake of.

If it makes yall down there feel any better, we're at 0-4 every morning the last few weeks, therefore, we still have a foot of frozen solid snow on the lawns. Have fun!

Posted by: JamesChristian | February 2, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

bigger flakes now, so far they land and melt in about 4 seconds (Olney) 38 degrees here

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 5:40 PM | Report abuse

Been snowing here in Staunton for hours--covered the ground pretty thoroughly and sticking to the roads big time.

How's it going to be further south, say in Roanoke? I've got to head down there tomorrow morning.

Posted by: weatherface | February 2, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

Steady, moderate snow now in Laytonsville, MD. Starting to stick to the deck.

Posted by: dprats21 | February 2, 2010 5:49 PM | Report abuse

I just read the last board. Too funny about the anger about the snow. I like the post about "if money were falling".

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Nothing here in Dumfries, at least since 5 min ago (when I came upstairs to the computer).

Posted by: southbridgemom | February 2, 2010 5:54 PM | Report abuse

Light snow on Capitol Hill now and 36.5F

Posted by: ijroberts | February 2, 2010 5:56 PM | Report abuse

snowing in columbia

Posted by: mickb1 | February 2, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

Is WRC's use of percentages for a range of projected accumulations something that just started? Maybe I'm overwhelmed by all the numbers that have been flying around since last Tuesday's Accuweather estimate of 6"-10" inches for the Washington area (which they too hastily backed off from), but I don't recall WRC using percentage ranges for accumulations. Just for precip (incl. snowfall) probabilities.

Re: negative/positive posts here and elsewhere, I think folks who post on internet chat boards should use their real names. CWG does so and if they're willing to stick their knuckles out, we shouldn't hide behind aliases if/when we're rapping them.

I've given up on so many blogs because of the plethora of virulent, anonymous posts; hope this doesn't spread to this comments line.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 2, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

I hope it doesn't get virulent as well. But, I would think that arguing about liking snow vs. not liking it is ok

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 6:00 PM | Report abuse

Light snow here in the City of Manassas. It's just now starting to stick to the colder surfaces.

Posted by: irish031 | February 2, 2010 6:02 PM | Report abuse

Sounds like this weekend is 8" and not 18". Fine by me. If I could, I would just take the rain...

Posted by: oldtimehockey | February 2, 2010 6:06 PM | Report abuse

FIrst flake in Mt. Vernon area of Fairfax!

Posted by: squirrelgirl1 | February 2, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Light steady snow here. I lost count of how many snow plows & sand trucks I saw on the way home. Snow seemed much heavier in Manassas, but roads just seemed wet. There is lots of treatment chemical already on the roads from the last storm.
Temp at 34
Snow is coming down harder now, in just the few minutes from when I started typing & ran downstairs to get the temp. Bigger flakes. Starting to stick too.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 2, 2010 6:09 PM | Report abuse

Re: the north trend. I think that's something you see every year with most storms, in most cases I personally build it into my thinking. This year however, and especially right now with the blocking, it can only trend so far. Our biggest "concern" for the weekend is that the original low from the Gulf of Mex comes up too far north before the secondary gets cranking off the coast. Even if that happens we probably only mix or dry slot after getting a pretty good front end dumping, with more probable after. That's my .02 at least.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 6:13 PM | Report abuse

JamesChristian: Don't write this weekend's storm off for Southern New England yet. It may come far enough north to bring accumulating snow to at least southeast Mass.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

After a light sprinkle, snow reached downtown DC at 6 pm.

As for the perceived "negative" comments - weather forecasting is a competitive sport. If you want to take credit for "getting it right" you have to expect to get called-out when you get it wrong - or when you don't call it at all and cover every possibility. I think most of the comments are intended to be constructive. Some of the responses have been silly (like "it depends on how you define "expected" - well, I have a one in five million chance of winning the lottery, but I don't "expect" to win. If you forecast a 1 or 2 chance in 10 of 6 inches of snow, it makes no sense to say it was "expected.") One more note on archiving forecasts - that only works when you don't go back and edit the language previously used, which I know has happened at least once recently. Better to stick with what you originally said and add an update. Looks like a busy week ahead - more snow next Tuesday or Wednesday???

Posted by: manatt | February 2, 2010 6:22 PM | Report abuse

Hey JerryFloyd - regular contributors (ie, those who post whenever snow is in the forecast) are known by their handles, and your reputation follows you regardless of what name you're known by. So if you're talking a lot of ying yang, you'll still have a tendency to be ostracized, or at least ignored. Besides, personal comments about someone's latest accumulation projections can only cut so deep. But yeah, once the snow starts flying, people can get a little fired up around here.

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 2, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Don't worry. More of that global warming will kick in and melt it before rush hour. Thanks Fatty Gore!

Posted by: ItsOver2 | February 2, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Light snow here in downtown Silver Spring. Starting to pick up in intensity!

Posted by: SkywalkerSS | February 2, 2010 6:26 PM | Report abuse

"Thanks Fatty Gore!"

Well, that didn't take too long. Sigh.

Posted by: SWester | February 2, 2010 6:26 PM | Report abuse

I came off the bus about 5:48, flurries were just starting (they looked like snow crystals or partially melted snow...?) By the time I got home (20 min walk) there was fluffier stuff in the mix too, but I could still hear the snow crystals tapping on my umbrella... not sure of the temperature then but definetly above freezing...

In for the night. Let's see what this bad boy can do. :)

Posted by: MKoehl | February 2, 2010 6:28 PM | Report abuse

starting to wonder if we get 2 sucessive "busts" this week. i.e. tonights storm is a bust because ground is too warm and we end up with a dusting and weekend storm is a bust due to mix resulting in max 4 inches...

Posted by: SJ43560 | February 2, 2010 6:28 PM | Report abuse

The snow has picked up in intensity in Oakton, VA. My road is now mostly snow covered despite the temperature being 34 degrees.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

SJ43560, I really don't see how you can call a "bust" before it even starts. As night falls, the ground will cool enough plenty, and there's still plenty of snow around from the weekend storm.

Posted by: SWester | February 2, 2010 6:31 PM | Report abuse

Snow really picking up now and starting to stick to non-grassy surfaces in McLean. Still hoping for another big one this weekend!

Posted by: HokieTerp | February 2, 2010 6:33 PM | Report abuse

SJ43560, we're probably due... this is DC of course. ;)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 6:34 PM | Report abuse

Most agreement on the weekend storm still seems to focus on AOA a foot for the Metro area. Sleet/rain intrusion might cut down on this, but Weather Channel is still "all snow" [white rather than pink on maps] for both days.

Wish we could get back to that teens/low twenties temperature regime...we'd really get clobbered!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 2, 2010 6:40 PM | Report abuse

Light snow falling in S. Arlington, but melting upon hitting the asphalt.

Posted by: jojo2008 | February 2, 2010 6:42 PM | Report abuse

@Ian,

I have to agree with you on your "concern". The trend is for the primary low to get drawn too far north before transferring the energy to the east coast. At this point I am seeing a slightly different version of progression in the system as you. I am seeing the transferred energy forming in a secondary low too far 1) north, closer to Delmarva than Hatteras and 2)inland. This will bring a longer period of possible mix/rain. Then the low seems to exit much too quickly. Not so sure I buy the quick exit scenario. Gotta see more model runs to lock or not lock onto that scenario.
In other words, it is looking like we may be in for less frozen accumulations for the period as opposed to earlier thinking.
Then again... the models have waited until 48 to 72 hours before the event to start locking on a consistent solution this season...

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 2, 2010 6:43 PM | Report abuse

I need a couple of inches tonight to replace what melted so we can go sledding tomorrow.

It is snowing steadily in Olney and starting to stick. (But I live on the side of the street with the most shade- we still have snow when it is melted elsewhere)

I am optimistic as this wasn't supposed to get going until later.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 6:47 PM | Report abuse

100 billion dollars said Dr. Evil with a pinky up, with her mini me Obama screwing our man poowered flight rocket in the backround .

Hope it snows up to the White House central dome, for it.

Posted by: dottydo | February 2, 2010 6:49 PM | Report abuse

1.75" east of Front Royal. 26.1F and snowing.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 2, 2010 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: dottydo | February 2, 2010 6:49 PM

What's it like to try ever so hard to be clever, only to end up sounding like a bitter idiot?

Posted by: bryc3 | February 2, 2010 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Can anyone recommend a 12-step program to kick the Crackital Weather Gang habit?

Constant refresh is a sure sign of the hooked.

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 2, 2010 6:55 PM | Report abuse

Snow is starting to stick to the asphalt here in downtown Frederick. Temp's at 30 degrees, falling six degrees in two hours.

C'mon snow!

Posted by: dettiot | February 2, 2010 7:01 PM | Report abuse

You could try baking or going for a walk in the snow...but I am also hooked so good luck

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 7:02 PM | Report abuse

Folks,

On a day like today, it would be useful to update your material more frequently. Three hours after your last posting, the National Weather Service put out a forecast predicting 3 to 7 inches.

Set away from the dinner table and check this out :-)

Posted by: nidomhnail | February 2, 2010 7:03 PM | Report abuse

Snowing in Capitol Hill near Potomac Avenue Metro. Not sure how long it's been snowing; I first checked only a little while ago. Doesn't look like it's sticking just yet.

Posted by: mensan98th | February 2, 2010 7:04 PM | Report abuse

nidomhnail, from what I can tell the NWS just re-issued their warning at 7, still calling for the 3 or 4-6 they were earlier.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

1.25 inches in leesburg, 30.5'

Posted by: mandarb77 | February 2, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

Centreville, VA - took a walk from 5:30 to 6:30 around the neighborhood - the snow was coming down fairly steady the entire time, albeit in teeny tiny flake form. Depending on where you walked in the neighborhood (and who got more of a warmup today - I face north, and still have lots of snow - my neighbors across the street have their yards pretty well melted clear), it was either starting to stick pretty well everywhere, or just wet on the sidewalk and cars.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 2, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

Light snowfall, light covering of cars and sidewalks in this part of Silver Spring.

Posted by: Murre | February 2, 2010 7:15 PM | Report abuse

pjdunn1, a bad "jump" from primary to secondary is often an issue around here. I can remember many a storm planned to hit this area that ended up doing similar and/or hitting places north. I just don't think this pattern supports that as well as usual. There really is plenty of cold air available in my opinion once you get the secondary going. The ridge overgreenland helps lock in the strong low well northeast and that acts as a feed of colder air. Right now no models really have us mixing (perhaps the NAM extrapolated, but that's a little silly for now), but I would not be surprised if we did a bit... better chance south and east for it to be a big issue.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

snow in n. arlington sticking to parked cars and wood deck, but not asphalt yet

Posted by: kgc1 | February 2, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

CWG - have you seen this?:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif

The latest 4-5 day qpf from HPC. Looks like we're between 1.75 and 2". Man, if that was all snow. . . .

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | February 2, 2010 7:25 PM | Report abuse

Just for the sake of my understanding, what if it were all snow? the ratio of snow to water is something like 10:1, so...

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 7:31 PM | Report abuse

Some pretty good bands of snow building now and headed across in the next hours.. right on schedule.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 7:35 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Temp 33 with light steady snow. Snow is accumulating so very slowly....and not at all yet on our local road.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 2, 2010 7:38 PM | Report abuse

I gotta say, I have the "refresh" CWG habit this time of year too. I have to consciously step away from the computer. Nice, long walks in the crisp, cold, fresh winter air are a nice break!

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 2, 2010 7:43 PM | Report abuse

Ian,

Thanks for your ".02". It's usually good as $1 in the bank.
Bring on the snow!

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 2, 2010 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Harry Nice Bridge checking in... snowing now but not hard. Sticking on the deck but not on the street yet. Just add it to the foot we got last weekend.

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | February 2, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

33 degrees here in Alexandria, still snowing - small flakes by the look out my window - accumulating on cars and grassy surfaces.

C'mon, cold air!

Posted by: MKoehl | February 2, 2010 7:50 PM | Report abuse

For those trying to figure out how to kick the "Refresh habit." Just wait, 70 degree days in April tend to do it pretty well. In the meantime, F5 & ctrl+r are your friends (and i'm sure there is some crazy mac shortcut that involves a tool key, the mac dongle, and f).

But don't just hog the refreshes yourself, tell your friends, and be sure to shoot us emails and tweets, both with your conditions, but also with feedback on how we can make the site and our information better for you. Talking about the weather isn't helpful if it can't help you.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 7:51 PM | Report abuse

why so much snow in dc?????

obama, pelosi and reid are now in charge of global warming........

Posted by: ProCounsel | February 2, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

That crazy Mac shortcut would be command/apple key + R.

Posted by: SWester | February 2, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

when is the next update coming out? the radar looks nice

Posted by: samdman95 | February 2, 2010 7:55 PM | Report abuse

About what time do we anticipate the snow ending? Prior to the morning commute, yes?

Posted by: PoorTeacher | February 2, 2010 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Some things are worth refreshing - it's snowing much harder here & the road is covered. No change on the temp at 33.
Is "around midnight" still the estimated end time for the accumulating snow?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 2, 2010 8:00 PM | Report abuse

2.5" east of Front Royal.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 2, 2010 8:01 PM | Report abuse

Still snowing pretty in Manassas...still slushy on the deck, though. Some of the neighborhood streets are starting to cover over pretty good.

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 2, 2010 8:04 PM | Report abuse

@Fleecie wool, and others. If people wanna' toast or roast other posters, that's fine, as long as it stays civil. As for arguing over whether we like or dislike snow, c'est la niege.

I bet by Thurs. a few folks will be kvetching about n-e-x-t Tuesday's possible snow forecast, never mind what may or may not happen this weekend.

What's interesting is to see how our region seems to be "locked in" to snow the way Madison, Milwaukee, Ottawa, Ont. and Caribou were during 2008-09 and in some instances saw all-time snowfall records.

This year, it just may be our turn and as the snow piles up, I'd imagine CWG page views are keeping pace. I hope CWG will share comparative snow vs. no snow page views graphs with us. Would be interesting to see how page views correlate with snow storm activity.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 2, 2010 8:07 PM | Report abuse

FIREDRAGON47, around midnight was sort of the general ending frame for the heaviest bands. Looks like snow tries to taper between about 1 or 2 am (west) and 3 or 4am (east).

Meanwhile, banding continues to look very nice on radar, expect some mod/heavy snow reports in the next period.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 8:07 PM | Report abuse

Snow starting to stick to streets here in downtown Silver Spring. Sidewalk is covered too!

Posted by: SkywalkerSS | February 2, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

Just for the sake of my understanding, what if it were all snow? the ratio of snow to water is something like 10:1, so...
@celestun100

Most storms this season have been more like 15:1 (last weekend was 20:1).

So if the 2" precip model holds, and the cold temps are there then "theoretically" the storm this weekend could be 30" to 40".

I personally think there is no way that will happen (something has to give), but its that kind of forecast math that has everyone so hyped up.

Posted by: Vingold | February 2, 2010 8:15 PM | Report abuse

For those asking about the next full update, it should be around 9p.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 8:15 PM | Report abuse

thanks Vingold

I think even I wouldn't want 30-40 inches

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 8:18 PM | Report abuse

At this point, one would have to think that the schools will have (at least) a two hour delay.
Agreed?

Posted by: bodyiq | February 2, 2010 8:18 PM | Report abuse

Manassasmissy: hey mum! :D

One inch and some change way out in Staunton! Coming down hard!

Posted by: weatherface | February 2, 2010 8:20 PM | Report abuse

WOW We just looked outside and it is really coming down and sticking! sidewalks and street are covered.

Posted by: celestun100 | February 2, 2010 8:21 PM | Report abuse

Heavy snow in Culpeper County...All roads are snow covered.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 2, 2010 8:25 PM | Report abuse

if dc is snowed in for a week and
the capitol shuts down


national gdp will leap exponentially

Posted by: ProCounsel | February 2, 2010 8:28 PM | Report abuse

Barely a dusting in Annapolis right now, but we did get smacked by the last one...

Posted by: maus92 | February 2, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

3 inches new snow at 9pm

31 degrees

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 2, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

A shmeezly 1" in Falls Church now. I don't want to shovel but...if there is enough snow hubby can call it in tomorrow morning...we can shovel and make pecan caramel sweet rolls. He works for a local grocery store but y'all bought all the food today :)

Posted by: tbva | February 2, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

Is there good snow potential in the mountains? I'm thinking they should close schools in Staunton then, too!

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 2, 2010 8:37 PM | Report abuse

Things are really picking up here in Georgetown - snow arrived just after 6, and it's now sticking to the roads. The pitter-patter of water in the downspout has stopped.

Posted by: fleeciewool | February 2, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

hi guys,
i can say for sure i've never been finishing one sculpture as the next snow was starting - as was the case here around 5:00.

global warming is definitely a threat to the arctic grasshopper...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/58171957@N00/

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 2, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

yup - back in Centreville, the snow is coming down much thicker and heavier, like "regular" snowfall. Piling up nicely on the patio table, cars are now getting covered pretty decently.

Just as long as it's snow and stays snow, no problem.

Posted by: bobosnow | February 2, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

^ Thanks Ian.
Centreville VA Steady moderate snow. I've got about a half inch on the deck. One thermometer reads 32 & the other 33.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 2, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

@walter -- wow, very cool snowy grasshopper! Nice work as always!

Posted by: natsncats | February 2, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Walter - great choice! Awesome job...thanks for sharing

Posted by: kathyb39 | February 2, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

3" in eastern Warren Co between Linden and Chester Gap. 26.4F and snowing.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 2, 2010 8:53 PM | Report abuse

New post up

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 2, 2010 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Walter-in-fallschurch... very nice! The snow dusting on him adds just the right touch... :) Makes him look more like an arctic grasshopper...

Posted by: MKoehl | February 2, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

The snow plow trucks are already out on the roads here in NW DC-it's coming down very heavy-about 2 inches already, I'd say.

Posted by: Spring_Rain | February 2, 2010 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Nice grasshopper!! I wonder who will be sitting with him after this snow? Hmmm...

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 2, 2010 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Are there any snowball fights schedule??

Posted by: sillyrepubs | February 2, 2010 9:15 PM | Report abuse

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