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Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 02/27/2010

Southern storm may be snow producer Tues-Wed

By Jason Samenow

Or it could go out to sea

* Weekend winds relax; few flakes tonight? Full Forecast *
* Weather Wall | CWG Snow T-shirts | Local home page *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Tues-Wed
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 45%

The storm that nailed New York City and many parts of the Northeast was a near miss for us to the north. The potential storm for Tuesday night and Wednesday may be a near miss to the south. And, if this second storm misses, we can probably blame the first storm.

What we know is that low pressure is very likely to develop around the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and will then head northeast. As usual, the devil is in the details of the storm track. Some of the computer models show the ex-New York blizzard regenerating off the coast of Maine. If this happens, it could block this new storm from coming up the coast and just provide a snowstorm for interior North Carolina into southeast and maybe central Virginia, before it turns out to sea. However, if the old storm doesn't redevelop as much or moves far enough north, it may allow a more stormy scenario for our region and even a little bit north.

At the moment, the out-to-sea scenario may be slightly more likely, but we'll have to see how the models trend over the next couple days.

Here's my current assessment of snowfall accumulation potential:

Less than 1": 55%
1-4": 25%
4-8": 10%
8"+: 10%

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | February 27, 2010; 12:45 PM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Gusty winds starting to subside a bit
Next: Forecast: Winds relax for the weekend

Comments

re a big snow:
so you're telling me there's a chance!

but seriously, come on! that stupid new york blizzard misses us, then may cause the next storm to miss us too! sheesh...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 27, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Somebody, pls send that snowicane packing... get it far out into the north Atlantic so the SLCB percentages for Tues-Wed for here go up.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | February 27, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, color me amazed that there's at least some prospect of a 6"+ storm in March.

Posted by: ah___ | February 27, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

I like that 10%.

Actually, this time, I don't, as the GF and I are headed to the tropics on Wednesday. I'll drive all the way to friggin Miami to avoid it this time.

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 27, 2010 1:02 PM | Report abuse

Small dusting here this morning...models appear to be hinting at a little snow with the next storm, provided that temperatures support snow rather than mix/rain. Daytime forties this time of year aren't often too good for snow.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 27, 2010 1:04 PM | Report abuse

I think there will be one more bug storm b4 winter is over

Posted by: JeroRobson1 | February 27, 2010 1:14 PM | Report abuse

Stink bugs? Lady bugs? What kind of bug storm should we prepare for? :)

Posted by: cbvd | February 27, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Hey CWG -- I love this site and it has become one of the tabs I always have up on my browser. One thing you said puzzled me:

"Some of the computer models show the ex-New York blizzard regenerating off the coast of Maine. If this happens, it could block this new storm from coming up the coast . . ."

The reason I'm puzzled is that the recent noreaster was a wicked low pressure system, barometric pressure getting below 981mb/29" in some areas. And we hear about high pressure systems blocking low pressure systems. How can a low pressure system block another low pressure system?

Thanks!

Posted by: kperl | February 27, 2010 1:39 PM | Report abuse

LOL! FridayKnight, you so funny...

Posted by: aaf314 | February 27, 2010 1:48 PM | Report abuse

kprl

If the car in front of you is blocked, your car and others behind you are blocked. Just think of the atmospheric block as a traffic jam in progression of weather systems

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

All I ask is that I be able to get out there tomorrow and wash my car. Jeeze, I get dirty just opening the door.

Posted by: tbva | February 27, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

Joe Bastardi, who has done an incredible job forecasting storms in advance this winter, has a high level of confidence about the Tuesday/Wednesday storm for the mid Atlantic. He thinks it's going to be a monster and sees 4-8 inches for the DC/Baltimore area as the low end of accumulations; but expects those totals to be much higher if things work out the way he feels they will.

Posted by: DLO1975 | February 27, 2010 4:43 PM | Report abuse

I was surprised to have over an inch of snow on my car this morning in Laurel!

Now I can't decide if I'm going to root for the snow this time... I LOVE the snow, but I had a great time hiking today! I don't want the trails to get buried!

Posted by: megamuphen | February 27, 2010 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Of course there's going to be another storm this winter but it might hold off until Mar. 8th. My company is holding another training that week and that's when the last 2 hit! :-)

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some snow next week.

Posted by: kygurl94 | February 27, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

@DLO1975: Joe Bastardi said the same thing about the "monster storm" a week or two ago where all we got was a trace of snow.

Posted by: rwalker66 | February 27, 2010 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Go 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hate traffic jams.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 27, 2010 6:50 PM | Report abuse

If Joe Bastardi were right half of the time, we'd have 120" of snow in DC.

Posted by: nlcaldwell | February 27, 2010 7:37 PM | Report abuse

I've yet to see where Accuweather has been way off target this year. To the contrary, they've been out front and surprisingly accurate. Most notably they got flack for calling the last storm "hurricane-like" - but I haven't heard anyone complain since gusts topped 90mph and over a million people are sitting in the dark in the NE. Moreover, they have a forecast rationale that is explained - meaning if things don't come together as predicted, it shouldn't be a surprise that the forecast doesn't pan out. If the upcoming storms stays south, it stays south. It just so happens they've hit it every time this winter. Maybe their due for a bust. I guess if you prefer an advanced "forecast" for every storm of "50% chance of snow, 50% chance of no snow" then you can always count on CWG, or flip a coin.

Posted by: manatt | February 27, 2010 7:46 PM | Report abuse

@manatt

If you don't like the way we communicate forecast information, and if AccuWeather provides more useful local information for you, then just use them as your choice of online weather. We have received very favorable feedback on what we're doing from large number of readers. We're open to constructive feedback. If you have specific recommendations for us, let us know. But if it's do what AccuWeather does, that's not our style.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2010 8:13 PM | Report abuse

If you don't like the way we communicate forecast information, and if AccuWeather provides more useful local information for you, then just use them as your choice of online weather. We have received very favorable feedback on what we're doing from large number of readers. We're open to constructive feedback. If you have specific recommendations for us, let us know. But if it's do what AccuWeather does, that's not our style.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang |


Defensive a wee bit?

Simply put, AccuWeather has had a better year. And I don't have a dog in the hunt.
Just saying.

Posted by: Sunshine_Bobby_Carpenter_Is_Too_Pessimistic_For_Me | February 27, 2010 8:29 PM | Report abuse

Jason

I am a big fan of Joe Bastardi from Accuweather, and I am also a big fan of you guys from Capital Weather Gang. I think you provide an excellent resource for those of us interested in weather in general, and our local weather in particular. For me, Joe Bastardi povides detailed anyalsis of the different computer models, which helps me understand the differences in forecasts. Again, I want to emphasize that I really enjoy your work and the service that you provide to the DC Community.

Posted by: rginsburg | February 27, 2010 9:12 PM | Report abuse

Weather underground has increased the snow chance for Tuesday for Dumfries...Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent

Posted by: bornin1775 | February 27, 2010 9:16 PM | Report abuse

@rginsburg

Thanks for the nice feedback. We try to make this blog as accessible as possible to a wide readership. We don't do a lot of technical model discussion here to keep this accessible to a general audience but Joe Bastardi does a great job with that (even if I don't always agree with his calls). Eastern US Weather Forums is another great place to go for model discussions.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2010 9:31 PM | Report abuse

Jason - I think I have provided constructive feedback, but it doesn't seem well received by the CWG. Recall your use of overlapping projections? (e.g., 20% chance of 4" to 8" with a 20% chance of 6" to 10")? It made no sense, but rather than recognize that, you insisted it was done to make things simpler to understand for your wide readership. Dumbing down science isn't helpful for anyone. It also appeared that you added a "our best guess" feature after I noted the "50% Rule" was rather obtuse at best (and misapplied by your own forecast checker). I don't think telling readers to go away is the best response, particularly when legitimate issues are raised.

Posted by: manatt | February 27, 2010 11:45 PM | Report abuse

I love snow, but anyone rooting for another debilitating storm needs to eff off and die

Posted by: juliusc91 | February 28, 2010 12:08 AM | Report abuse

@manatt

I personally agree about no overlapping probabilities. That was done just once or twice (by other forecasters who I advised to stop doing this) and they haven't come back. I welcome your feedback and participation but if you just come back and take the same shots, it gets old. I just got a little frustrated last night. Sorry for that.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2010 8:24 AM | Report abuse

I am a Skywarn spotter. I read the models, the NWS discussions and when a storm gets to this side of the MS river, follow it via radar.
Everyone can forecast a weather event, but experience in forecasting for this area is essential to making a prediction even close. We have so many variables that come into play for each and every event. Even for sunshine! (I'm all for sunshine about now!)

Posted by: HowardCtyMom | February 28, 2010 9:36 AM | Report abuse

Well said HowardCtyMom. This storm is just beginning to take shape and remember there was another storm this season that was supposed to stay south and the models for that one were also very consistence up until it started snowing here (well almost LOL).

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 28, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Hey gang hears a few suggestions for a pole. One what do you think is more accurite accuweather or capital weather gang.
Two how much snow are we going to get at this point. I thing the gang is more accurite. No guess on the second one for me.

Posted by: snowlover31 | February 28, 2010 6:59 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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