Update: Some FAQs for Snowmageddon Eve

FIRST!

#2. Christmas eve

I'm going out on a limb and saying snow starts falling at 8am

WOOM WOOM WOOM WOOM WOOM WOOM

Wait, you didn't answer your second to last FAQ (storm next week)!

Not that it should matter right now with big daddy bearing down on us.

Just cancel school/work across the metro area and let us stay home

My preparations have been made, my bag is packed in case I can't get home from work this weekend.

Please, people, use caution and employ common sense out there this weekend! We at your local 911 centers will be there to help you, but you've got to help yourselves out as well.

@CliftonJohn, I noticed that too. Thought it might be a way of saying, what, me worry? LOL

Thanks for the frequent updates, guys. Here's an FAQ for y'all:

Sue Palka on Channel 5 said tonight that if the low pressures system stalls once it's off the coast east of the Chesapeake, the snow totals could go up because the heavy snow could hang around for a few more hours.

Does your 16"-26" snow-total amount take that into account, with the 16" meaning the Low just scoots on out to sea, and the 26" meaning the Low stalls offshore for a while?

Is there a way to predict that "stalling" effect, or is it just something you gotta observe?

@natsncats: You dispatch? Bravo! And thank you.

Is the earlier than previously predicted start the reason the schools have already canceled? Not that I'm complaining...

I am too excited about this; I was in NY during the Dec. storm and felt kinda cheated. Got the crock pot ready and plan on staying in my jammies for the next two days (at least).

dinergirl, for once I agree with the school's closing early or canceling. The timing of this storm would bring quickly worsening road conditions right around the time where schools would be letting out and putting the students on the bus.

Just found out that I may have to make the call for whether & when to close our suburban MD office directly to the out-of-state company president. I'm thinking of recommending normal start times but letting folks out around 2pm for their metro/car trips home. At the moment, is that sound advice?

Here’s the rundown of our 4 local forecasters predictions. I think this is the best time to pin them down because it’s the last 11pm newscast before the first snowflake hits:

Sue Palka: 16-22” (although a graphic showed 16-20” on the ground by the end)
Bob Ryan: 80% chance of 10-14” and 70% chance of 18-24”. Golden shovel? More like Golden Waffle.
Topper Shutt 16-24” ‘across the metro area’
Doug Hill 16-24” ‘across most of our area’ ‘best chance’

You will be graded boys (and girl).

It bears mentioning again.

HOLY CRAP!!!!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/sref/21zsrefp24_NE048.gif

@--sg

Yes I do, 26 years and counting...and thank you! :-)

This one is much more fun to stare at, in awe.

http://i48.tinypic.com/20tmbr4.jpg

What are the chances the Caps game will be postponed tomorrow night? Do you think metro will be running above ground at the end of the game (around 10)?

PLEASE HELP FOR THE LOVE OF OVIE!

Montgomery County Schools need to decide NOW to close--not at 5 am!!!!

Anyone know what the local TV mets predicted on the 11:00 news? I only caught Doug Hill on ABC7, he's calling for 16-24" across the area.

I have to run into Arlington in the morning to grab a few things out of my office in case I can't get back until Tuesday...hopefully the traffic won't be as bad as it was this morning (90 minutes from Manassas...really?) I am hoping the snow holds off at least until 10 a.m. or so so that I can accomplish that goal and get safely home...and up the hill... again.

I find it incomprehensible that we could get two 20+ inch snow events in one season.
Here in Centreville VA we measured 20+ inches of snow from the Dec storm. I predict 18 inches in Centreville for this one. DCA will measure 14; breaking the hearts of all of us who would love to re-shuffle the top ten listing one more time.
Whatever the total numbers, it looks as though they'll be big. If this in any way "busts" (8 inches or less in the immediate DC metro area) it will be a historic forecasting flop.
Time now to rest for the strenuous snow removal efforts ahead.

Frad Maukins back folks. My prediction is for at least one Greg Oden by 5 PM Friday. I'm guessing at least 2.5 Greg Odens by the end of the storm. :)

Go Trailblazers!!!

It's so easy to forget but please remember to check in with the elderly and others who may be in need around you. And do offer assistance in getting the essentials they may need to make it through this storm.

@jojo2008: you posted as I was (slowly) typing, it appears. Thanks for the info.

DaLord, well, either the game tomorrow night will be postponed, or the Thrashers game at home against the Panthers on Sat will be postponed. I find it hard to believe they'd be able to get in tomorrow, play the game, and get out back to Atlanta. But, without knowing the exact travel schedule, its hard to say.

Giant snow on way & Hokies beat UNC tonight, all is well. I'll say 19.4" at Reagan. Time for bed.

@natsncats: May the Force be with you! :-)

Dear Capital Weather Gang:

Power outages --

That, it seems to me, is the most important question here. Because, let's face it, dealing with no heat and no Superbowl isn't something anyone wants.

So, my question: I understand that power outages are "a concern." But how likely are they?

I know this gets a bit beyond the scope of your expertise but as long as you're bringing us the info we need, I'd be grateful if you could confer with PEPCO and others and let us know your best projection on power outages. As specific as possible -- e.g., I assume the snow will be less problematic in northern metro than southern.

Thanks!

@random-adam: Some questions to ask before you decide: Where do most of my employees live? How far must they travel? Do they drive, take Metro trains, or buses? How many are already out due to children out of school? Obviously, if your staff are far away and mostly drive, recommend an earlier close. By 2:00pm, depending on the area, roads may be badly choked, guaranteeing your staff a 4+ hour commute in a blizzard. If the Feds close early, all hell will descend upon the Beltway, never to be driven on again. Clearly, I'm bucking for a noon close!

Does anyone have experience flying in this? My flight out of Baltimore is at 10:25 .... even if it starts snowing at 8, surely the runways can handle the early dusting before the whallop in the afternoon?

Topper Shutt on channel 9 said 18-27" by the time all is said and done.

I think Bob Ryan said it could be bigger than the 12/19 storm and his forecast showed up to 30" for areas out near the Shenandoah Valley. Also, I read somewhere that Bob *might* be moving to ABC7 to team up with Doug Hill.

Concerning possible power outages, does anyone know if the Super Bowl will be carried live by any local radio stations?

@random-adam: Get everybody out by noon. You can always blame the weather folks if it starts later. :-)

ksrgatorfn1....Get in your car and drive to Arlington now....shouldn't take long at all (as long as you can work from home tomorrow for sleep

Yes VT beat UNC...again...and again...and Maryland over FSU!

spgass, I've got to believe that ESPN 980 would carry it, or 1300 out of baltimore

Paul, regarding the UMD/FSU game, that was a bogus charge call towards the end of the game. Last I knew, you had to have your feet set to be able to draw a charge!

Fed Status just updated, 4 hour early dismissal added to the mix.

http://www.opm.gov/status/

Thanks, Brian. Followthegame.com appears to have all the stations.

random adam - got news for you pal, nobody's going to work tomorrow.

@ esmerelda123:

I can't speak for BWI, but I know at IAD (Dulles) where I work, snow crews work as hard as humanly possible to keep at least one runway open at all times.

Seeing as you're leaving from BWI, I think you should be fine getting out of here.

Also, I would not be surprised to see major air carriers pull out of the region for this storm as well.

For those of you who have already stopped thinking about the impending storm and looking forward to the third one (next week or otherwise), post your predictions at http://snowfecta.com/

I am concerned about area airports having groundstops by Friday evening

Bob Ryan may move to Channel 7 to team up with Doug Hill. See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/04/AR2010020404259.html

I am concerned about the temperatures...if they are above freezing much of tomorrow, won't this limit the snowfall much like they did the other night?

rocotten,the temperatures tomorrow will be above freezing as the precipitation starts but will drop during tomorrow afternoon as the precip becomes heavier. This storm is so powerful that it is essentially bringing down colder air from higher up in the atmosphere above us.

Bryan, I went to football schools: VT and FSU (M.S. in Met)......... therefore basketball makes absolutely no sense to me :)

Let's all the rest of us in America hope that lots of Republican congressmen and senators get caught in the storm one way or another. Let them skid off the GWParkway and into the Potomac and Rock Creek as often as possible. Let several of them have heart attacks while shoveling snow. With luck, some of their hi-rise balconies may collapse while they're out there looking at the snow. Just remember, that the weather is God's work and, if he chooses to strike down a few sinners or many, it's all because he willed it. Perhaps the time has particularly come to gather up John McCain, Mitch McConnel and John Boehner. Their bodies can be dug out of the debris and ice several months from now, but there's no hurry.

man, how awesome would it be if bob ryan and doug hill teamed up... throw those guys on tv and CPX on the 'puter and you wouldn't need anything else weather related ever again!

GO BOB, GO!

I still cannot get over the size of this system. If this were summer, I'd be really freaked over severe weather. But I just can't get my head wrapped around the amount of snow we may get. I missed the Dec storm, and was so bummed. Guess there are such things in life as 2nd chances!

Having lived in the Chantilly/Centreville area since I was 4, I've been through quite a few of these. I have pictures of that '83 storm - we had a lot of drifting with that one in my neighborhood. In 10th grade, we had some snow almost every 3 days - I don't think we had a full week of school that Feb - either late opening, early closing or no school. It was wild.

I missed one good snow while living in California for a few years, but came back just in time for the '96 mega storm. My good friend, and then-roommate, and I were thinking back fondly today on our 2-hour shifts outside keeping things as clear as we could. It was nuts.

What helped us survive that particular mess (and we were much younger of course): Marlboro Lights (which we've both given up), lots of strong cups of coffee, mixed with a shot of Tequila, Kahlua, and RediWhip (and we've NOT given up on any of these). In fact, I've got my snow-shoveling shots of courage all ready to go. Pacing myself, of course.

Cheers, everyone.

There's a very solid consensus of liquid numbers 2"+... If I didnt know better I'd say this has a very good shot of biggest ever at DCA (though probably not biggest ever in DC).

Regarding the Caps game, Joe B and Locker mentioned tonight that the Thrashers are already in town. That means the game will most likely be played. My gut tells me this may be the first home game this season I won't be able to attend, assuming the roads will be as bad as they say after the game.

Hopefully Sunday gets postponed to Monday night. The Opponents Who Must Not Be Named play in Montreal on Saturday afternoon and thus may have serious difficulty getting down here.

@dsrobins

Really? Wishing people dead isn't nice.

RE Superbowl on radio: Every Friday, the Washington Post print edition sports section has a "weekend on the air" bit which lists the radio and tv listings for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

1) Wait for it to be posted sometime Friday morning online, or
2) Buy a Friday newspaper.

Don't forget to have good batteries for that radio!

Sleep well everyone. see you back here tomorrow!

@dsrobins At the risk of this weather forum turning political, you can dislike someone's ideas as much as you want, and you can have rational debate. But the comment you made goes a long way toward showing why nothing productive is getting done in this country. Attack the ideas all you want, but don't make these things personal.

Was @ Harris Teeter in Rockville just about an hour ago. Store is picked over like a walmart on black friday.
Seems like they have plenty of boxes on the floor full of items to be restocked onto shelves.
There were about 5 loaves of bread left, and no sign of a restock in sight. Also, couldn't even find any sign of milk. Plenty of toilet paper left, and there's calcium chloride a' plenty.

Just pre-treated my driveway with a blend of magnesium chloride + calcium chloride. Sadly, couldn't find rock salt anywhere this year it seems.

newest NAM gives DC close to 3 feet. seems like the models weren't even able to fathom the extent of this storm. overperforming already -- already snowing in blacksburg, apparently

I've gotten so hyped up about this that I had to do something...
It's a quickie, but, hey, it's late...

Someone suggested it: Snowmageddon! trailer.

Great! My plane lands in BWI at 645pm. It has not been cancelled THANK GOD. I hope roads are passable around 7:30ish

http://facebook.com/Snowpocalypse Part Deux!

Persistent SW wind. This is not good for snow in this area. Is this just a prelude to a wind directional change to a more NE'sterly direction??

People seem to forget that the 28" reported in the Knickerbocker Storm in 1922 had the accumulation measured somewhere else than at the as yet nonexistent National Airport (I will NEVER call it by that other name!). As we all know, National Airport is the warmest spot in the Washington area during the winter and snow accumulations measured there provide lower figures than everywhere else in the region.

I think this may be the worst snowstorm in this area since the colonists first settled here. I haven't measured it but on tabletops and whatnot outside my window in Arlington it looks like WELL over two feet, maybe even closer to THREE feet.

People seem to forget that the 28" reported in the Knickerbocker Storm in 1922 had the accumulation measured somewhere else than at the as yet nonexistent National Airport (I will NEVER call it by that other name!). As we all know, National Airport is the warmest spot in the Washington area during the winter and snow accumulations measured there provide lower figures than everywhere else in the region.

I think this may be the worst snowstorm in this area since the colonists first settled here. I haven't measured it but on tabletops and whatnot outside my window in Arlington it looks like WELL over two feet, maybe even closer to THREE feet.