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Posted at 9:30 AM ET, 02/18/2010

Winter weather threat returns Monday

By Jason Samenow

* Several more days of slow melting: CWG's Full Forecast *
* Photographing D.C. making snow history | Tracking snow piles *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Monday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 50%

By the time our next chance of snow arrives on Monday, it will have been a week from the last (barely) measurable snow -- an eternity by this February's standards. An area of low pressure will track through the Tennessee Valley, possibly spreading precipitation into the region as early as late Sunday night or early Monday morning (the kids probably like that)...though the exact timing could well change.

The amount of cold air over the region will be marginal this time around as cold high pressure to the north and west won't be particularly strong. Nonetheless, there's a good chance precipitation will start as snow for most of the area. Whether the precipitation stays snow or turns to a mix or rain will depend on the direction the low pressure system heads in. There are two camps right now:

Keep reading for more commentary and accumulation probabilities...

1) It will turn to the north and cut to our west -- which would almost certainly change any snow to a mix or rain 2) It will continue tracking to our south before turning northeast up the coast -- which would result in a more snowy scenario -- though some mixing might still occur due to the marginal cold air in place -- particularly from the District and south and east.

The seasonal trend (supported by the overall pattern) is a more southern track, so I'm slightly favoring that right now (camp 2). However, I'm thinking there may still be some mixing issues for parts of the region even in that scenario.

As with any storm more than 48 hours away, accumulation estimates are very uncertain. Here's a preliminary look at accumulation probabilities:

50%: Less than 1"
25%: 1-4"
15%: 4-8"
10%: 8"+

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | February 18, 2010; 9:30 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: At last -- peaceful weekend weather
Next: Photographing D.C. making snow history


Please. Let it stay to the north and bring only rain. Having to tiptoe outside of my house and avoid the colossal icicles above is just not fun.

Posted by: Hanz1 | February 18, 2010 9:37 AM | Report abuse

rain would be bad too, if it's heavy... People will be kayaking through King St.

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 18, 2010 9:44 AM | Report abuse

Bring on the snow! Bring on the snow! Bring on the snow!

Posted by: Rcmorgan | February 18, 2010 9:49 AM | Report abuse

There is a GFS for next saturday that looks really good for Snow..

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 18, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

I would love to see more snow! If it does fail to produce snow I wouldnt mind some rain to melt this snow away.

Posted by: justin-N-sterlingVa | February 18, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse


you are a wise man: sounds like you'll be happy no matter what happens!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 18, 2010 10:15 AM | Report abuse

I like that 10%.

Posted by: ennepe68 | February 18, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

so they're telling us there's a chance...

sorry to reprise this clip, but every "bad" (i.e. no snow) snow forcast makes me think of it....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 18, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

I've really liked this week's slow melt. My basement has flooded in the past and I really don't want tons of rain + rain melted snow pouring into the ground. I'd rather there be snow followed by another week of slow melting. Once it happens once, that's all you think about.

Posted by: typical_guy | February 18, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

It would be nice to bag that monthly snowfall record......

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | February 18, 2010 10:47 AM | Report abuse

0z model runs indicate 540-thickness is south of us, in Central Virginia, and precipitation potential could be in the 0.10--0.25 range...good for 1 to 3 inches of snow. Zero-Celsius rain/snow line seems to be very close to 540-thickness, indicating snow unless there's warm-air advection aloft [sleet or freezing-rain].

GFS and ECMWF seem to be in rather good agreement.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 18, 2010 11:16 AM | Report abuse

I'm all for light snow, up to 4 inches, as long as there is no rain.

Posted by: Murre | February 18, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Looks like if it is rain, will be on the light side, since your possible snow totals also are on the light side? In that case, I'll take rain to help with the melting, since that won't be enough to get water in my basement...

Posted by: steske | February 18, 2010 11:33 AM | Report abuse

I was just kidding around. I have nothing but love for everyone at CWG. And yes I have been looking at all of the available models and for what it's worth, the OZ GFS is now indicating snow Monday and Tuesday and that should be great news for snow lovers who are hoping for another storm next week or 4 days out. But right now everything is still pretty much just a bunch of equations. This storm is just begging to take shape and it is still 50/50 which was the analysis in the last NWS forecast discussion. So I though it was amusing that David forecasted Snow/Sleet/Rain for next week, hence my comment. That said, I sincerely apologize to David or anybody else at CWG I may have offended. I centainly feel everybody is doing the best they can.

Posted by: ntrlsol | February 18, 2010 12:17 PM | Report abuse

typical_guy, you said,
"My basement has flooded in the past....Once it happens once, that's all you think about."

have you considered and/or is it feasible to put in a foundation (or so-called "french") drain? it is preferable to install around the outside of the house, below slab level, but it's also possible to install one around the perimeter of the foundation wall inside the house. is your basement finished? is there a place on your property with an elevation lower than your basement slab?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 18, 2010 12:22 PM | Report abuse

My sub-division streets still have so much snow on them that only one car can get by at a time. At least we have pavement.

Posted by: pmknp | February 18, 2010 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Eh... much as I'd like what we have to melt, the snow scenario sounds less damaging that the rain.

Posted by: MKoehl | February 18, 2010 12:34 PM | Report abuse

No worries ntrlsol! ... we'll chalk it up to the kidding around not coming through online as clearly as intended. Thanks much for the follow up comment/explanation.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 18, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

jrodfoo - Next Saturday the 27th? It can tell that far out? Wow - What is May 14th going to look like?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 18, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Some icicles are starting to come down from my house in Falls Church...I put a piece of cardboard over my back door to protect the glass storm door. I am still working on getting he end of my drieway widened so I can get my race car out....I shear off two feet, take a break, two feet, break. Should be done by July.

Posted by: tbva | February 18, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

I don't want rain that will cause flooding. I don't want any more snow on my roof. I will take flurries and I will take a drizzle :-)

That said I don't think mother nature reads our comments on CWG. So, whatever we get we will live through it.

Posted by: RoseVA | February 18, 2010 1:19 PM | Report abuse

My ur-stalactite came down with a crash at 12:40 p.m. Straight into the 44-gal "Brute" model Rubbermaid trash bin bought for this express purpose. Considerable ricochet of broken chunks but they avoided hitting glass doors in two directions. What a relief!

Posted by: tinkerbelle | February 18, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

@ authorofpoetry

yes, from what I read on another site.

LOL May 14th, Sunny and 67 :) (I hope)

Posted by: jrodfoo | February 18, 2010 2:27 PM | Report abuse

jrodfoo - As far as the 67 and sunny on May 14th, I think we've earned that this year!

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 18, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

A true dilemma - do i prefer snow or rain? While rain would get points for a) being not snow and b) simply showing up here after being gone for so long, I fear that there are waaaaay too many drains that are blocked by the snow. Along with the narrow roads created by the solid mounds of snow, this is a recipe for some serious issues with pooling of water and flooding. Mo' Sno' please.

Posted by: amaranthpa | February 18, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

RoseVA who commented "that said I don't think mother nature reads our comments on CWG. So, whatever we get we will live through it" is channeling my thoughts exactly!

Posted by: amaranthpa | February 18, 2010 3:59 PM | Report abuse will solve your problems!

Posted by: 1of9000 | February 18, 2010 4:48 PM | Report abuse

At this point, I would like to see snow rather then rain. IMO, rain would just make for very ugly conditions, flooding and otherwise.

Posted by: irish031 | February 18, 2010 5:07 PM | Report abuse

I completely agree with you, irish031.

Posted by: Murre | February 18, 2010 5:56 PM | Report abuse

Absolutely agree with irish031 and Murre. Those who prefer rain, be careful of what you wish for. With the volume of snow that will still be around when the next system arrives, rain could potentially cause some serious flooding issues everywhere. A slow thaw is would likely minimize flooding issues.

Posted by: johnnierat | February 18, 2010 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Whoa, whoa-

I have a plane to catch at BWI Monday, 8 am and I live in Frederick, MD.. and then I land at Dulles on that same day at 3:20 pm and take the commuter bus to the metro, then take the metro up to Silver Spring where I then have to drive around the beltway to Arlington. Mind giving me a rundown on how this 'mix' will affect my commute? After all, I simply must attend one of those dances hosted by Bombo47jea.

Kidding, kidding of course :) Thought I'd help preempt the next 20 commute-related questions that will likely pop up in the next snow update.

Posted by: JSTF | February 18, 2010 6:17 PM | Report abuse

ha! complex itinerary...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 18, 2010 9:07 PM | Report abuse

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