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Posted at 2:45 PM ET, 03/13/2010

Forecast: Steady rains to subside, still showery

By Jason Samenow

* Flood Warnings for parts of area, mostly N & W (map) *
* Coastal Flood Warning for the Potomac River & Chesapeake Bay *
* River flood threat | Turn clocks ahead tonight | CWG T-Shirts! *
* Radar & more: Weather Wall | Flood coverage: Local home page *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
3Gloomy, breezy, and damp. Far from an ideal Saturday.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Intermittent showers and breezy. 50-55. | Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle and a few showers. 45-48. | Tomorrow: Cloudy with patchy drizzle. 49-54. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

What an ugly weekend. It will be cloudy, breezy and cool for the duration. On the plus side, the rain will slowly decrease in coverage and intensity. In fact, after last night's steady rains, today's rain will become more intermittent and showery. Tomorrow, there probably won't be much measurable rain but mainly drizzle. We'll gradually dry out Monday into Tuesday.


Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): Steady rains this morning will become more intermittent as the day wears on. In fact, we'll likely get breaks from the rain at times this afternoon as a bit of a dry slot moves over the region. Though afternoon skies may briefly brighten, they'll most likely remain cloudy. It will be breezy, with winds from the east at 10-20 mph, and some higher gusts (to 30 mph or so). The easterly fetch will hold temps steady in the low 50s. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Low pressure will continue to sit atop of us or just to our northeast, keeping the steadiest rain north of the region. The low's proximity will keep us cloudy, but as winds shift around to out of the north, we'll probably see less in the way of showers as the night wears on and will simply be left with some drizzle towards morning. Lows will fall only modestly -- down into the upper 40s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through early next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): Low pressure will very slowly pull offshore, but low level moisture will stick around, so it will remain cloudy and drizzly. Temperatures once again won't do much, with highs in the low 50s. Winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: We stay socked in with clouds and drizzle for one more night, with lows in the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Clouds may linger into at the least the first half of Monday, but I think there's a better than 50/50 chance some sun breaks out in the afternoon. Highs will climb into the mid-50s. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday night, with lows from the mid-to-upper 30s in the colder suburbs to the low 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium

By Tuesday, it should finally be at least partly sunny for the whole day. This will help temperatures head up closer to 60...though with weak flow from the north, we'll probably fall just shy. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | March 13, 2010; 2:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Minor to moderate flooding with rivers still rising

Comments

Good news on the rains tapering today. We've had quite a bit already.

On the upside, I got all the lawn fertilizer, lime, and seed down before the rains came as I hope to resurrect the lawn after this winter's wrath.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | March 13, 2010 5:44 AM | Report abuse

Thank you very much for the detailed update. I can better plan my day with my boys.

Posted by: Bitter_Bill | March 13, 2010 7:24 AM | Report abuse

On the upside, I got all the lawn fertilizer, lime, and seed down before the rains came as I hope to resurrect the lawn after this winter's wrath.
Posted by: david_in_stafford

I thought about trying to do that but based on the forecast for the significant, steady, hard rain, the seed would have ended up in the street - I have a hill/slope for a front yard. Hopefully you have a relatively flat yard...

CWG, love your forecasts....

Posted by: amaranthpa | March 13, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

The season-kickoff Iceberg Regatta was called off. Here's hoping this doesn't herald a sailing season full of weather cancellations.

Posted by: --sg | March 13, 2010 8:03 AM | Report abuse

We must have had some good winds last night. One of the picnic tables, an empty trash can and my little wind mill blew over. The picnic table usually goes when the winds are north to south. This time it was south to north.

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | March 13, 2010 8:12 AM | Report abuse

@amaranthpa, my front yard is mainly flat, but my backyard does have a slight slope up to the fenceline, and it drastically drops beyond the fence where no grass exists.

We've had about 1.7" of rain so far, but it has been a steady, soaking rain as opposed to a gully washer. Luckily, I think most of what I put down did soak in.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | March 13, 2010 8:29 AM | Report abuse

Secondary storm never seemed to get going - good news. Without widespread heavy rain today, the flood forecasts for Monday may get trimmed a bit. The rain yesterday and last night was a bit more than predicted so our rises (e.g. Shenandoah Front Royal) are more rapid, but hopefully will peak sooner also. Here's the river forecast link

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=lwx

Posted by: eric654 | March 13, 2010 8:48 AM | Report abuse

certainly not the inches and inches of rain we might have gotten

Posted by: rocotten | March 13, 2010 8:59 AM | Report abuse

Centreville VA About 2 inches of rainwater measured in buckets on the deck. Steady drizzle. At least the winds have calmed down some from earlier this morning.
March seems to always be a month of mud.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | March 13, 2010 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Really scary winds in the Eastern Panhandle. Knocked over heavy stuff in my yard that's never before been upended. Literally flattened a small stable (new) on a horse farm near me. Not one stick of wood left standing on another.

I read in the Martinsburg paper that the National Historical Park people have closed the Harpers Ferry park and are spending today rescuing artifacts from exhibit buildings in Lower Town, expected to flood.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | March 13, 2010 1:09 PM | Report abuse

Follow-up in case people are interested in flood prediction for Potomac R. at Harpers Ferry:

MDC043-VAC107-WVC037-132241-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FL.W.0028.100313T1642Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFEW2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100315T0900Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE POTOMAC RIVER AT HARPERS FERRY.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 20.8 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
AT 20.5 FEET, WATER BEGINS TO FLOW THROUGH THE OPEN TUNNEL BETWEEN
THE POTOMAC RIVER AND HISTORIC HARPERS FERRY. WATER REACHES THE LOWER
EDGE OF TOWN, INUNDATING HALF OF MAIN STREET AND HALF OF THE SHUTTLE
BUS PARKING LOT..

Posted by: tinkerbelle | March 13, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Right now this system is underperforming...will continue to do so unless a major dry slot develops, the sun comes out and heating facilitates convection in southwesterly flow.

It's hard to say if cool showers will drag into tomorrow the way this looks.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | March 13, 2010 2:23 PM | Report abuse

After a lull this morning, we're receiving isolated but heavy downpours from timt to time.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | March 13, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Typo...time to time..

Posted by: david_in_stafford | March 13, 2010 3:29 PM | Report abuse

I was out and about and can report that the river is about to come out of its banks at Point of Rocks. At the mouth of the Monocacy the river is nearly to the top of the arches on the aqueduct.

Posted by: MKadyman | March 13, 2010 4:45 PM | Report abuse

We totaled 1.26" of precipitation here in Reston, VA so far from this storm, with 0.53" having fallen since Midnight. The winds really picked up around 0600 HRS EST, and I managed a gust of 16 MPH (Considering that I am located in a somewhat sheltered spot (Between two hills), that's significant). The Barometric is maintaining the Low Pressure run, which is currently at 29.343 in. and still slowly falling (That's 993.5 mb).

On a less technical note, the final snow pile in my yard just passed away and went to Frosty Heaven!!! Nooooooooo!!!!! :-(

Posted by: TheAnalyst | March 13, 2010 6:42 PM | Report abuse

We've had over 3 near Front Royal. The rain now is light to moderate but thankfully not too widespread. It won't help the main river flood situation but shouldn't exacerbate it too much.

Posted by: eric654 | March 13, 2010 7:18 PM | Report abuse

Question, Several years ago we were experiencing a major drought out here in Loudoun county. I recall Bob Ryan commenting that the aquifer was so low that it would take years to recover. I believe we have had surplus rain over the last few years but no significant snow that would really recharge the sub system. Any thoughts or estimates on our current situation? It seems with the record snows, a slow steady rain, and previous year surplus, that maybe we are in the best shape for underground water than we've been in a long time. Maybe not so good for the wine crop, but other farmers should be in good shape?

Posted by: GaiusCaesar | March 13, 2010 7:54 PM | Report abuse

Water level looks very good by this one measurement
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/AWLSites.asp?S=390623077314201

But I'm not sure in general. I think a lot of the aquifers are charged by water from the mountains, so the recent slow snow melt should help.

Posted by: eric654 | March 13, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

I didn't have an empty bucket at the start of this event, but eric654's findings sound about right to me.

Here's a photo I took this evening of Goose Creek out of its banks in Markham.

Current conditions: rain, 44.2F

Posted by: spgass1 | March 13, 2010 8:31 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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