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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 03/12/2010

Forecast: Wet into weekend with flood threat

By Camden Walker

Not too chilly, but becoming windy tonight

* Flood Watch thru Sat. evening | Later: Latest on flood threat *
* February's once in a lifetime snows | March is fickle | CWG T-Shirts! *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Traffic *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
2Wet and breezy, but at least not too chilly. Not much weekend improvement to look forward to.
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight


Today: Periods of rain. Breezy. Mid-50s. | Tonight: Rain becomes heavy. Windy. Upper 40s to low 50s. | Tomorrow: More rain. Breezy. Mid-50s at best. | Sunday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers. 50s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


Guess we should've known that once spring temperatures arrived, spring rains wouldn't be far behind. Our recent stretch of fantastic weather comes to a crashing end as we plunge into potentially flooding rains. Around 2-4 inches is possible through the weekend as one area of low pressure approaches from the west and another develops off the coast. Those with property in low-lying areas should take appropriate precautions. Be careful when driving, too. You'll need the rain gear on hand all weekend long until we dry out as the new work week begins.

Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Take your umbrella with you this morning. The rain and wet roads make this morning's commute a pain. Today's rain should be light to moderate and may become intermittent at times, but overall it'll be a damp and wet day. Highs get to around our average for this time of year -- in the mid-50s. But a 10-20 mph breeze from the east/northeast will chill the air a bit. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The rain picks up in intensity around mid-to-late evening and comes down heavy through the overnight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile, winds take it up a notch to around 15-30 mph. Chance of rain? Essentially 100%. Confidence: Medium-High

When will the rain end? Keep reading for the forecast into early next week...

Tomorrow (Saturday): The potential for flooding issues increases as rain continues moderate to heavy through much of the day with winds around 15-20 mph from the east/northeast. There's some question whether the rain will let up in the afternoon, or if the deluge will go straight through the evening. Highs in the mid-50s at best. Chance of rain? Yep, still near 100%. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Rain remains likely during the evening, though there's a chance it won't be as heavy or steady as earlier in the day. If you know how to "get out on the town" with your rain slicker & goulashes, have at it! Overnight or toward morning we can more confidently say that rain will diminish in coverage and intensity. Low dip into the upper 40s and winds drop down to around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Overcast and still a moderate (60%) chance of intermittent showers with highs in the 50s. Winds pick up again by afternoon to around 15-20 mph from the north. Even as the rain slows down, the flood threat remains as rivers keep rising. Check in on any friends or relatives who live in flood-prone areas. Confidence: Medium


Still some lingering showers are possible Sunday night. We'll cool down a bit more on breezes from the north/northwest. Temperatures fall back to lows in the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Medium

A few peeks of sun may shine through our clouds on Monday. Can't rule out a few showers with low pressure still spinning off the coast. But it looks to be far enough off the coast to limit chances to about 25%. Highs in the 50s. Confidence: Medium

Finally, back to the weather we've gotten used to over the past week or so. Increased sunshine on Tuesday -- partly sunny at least -- should boost highs well into the 50s, if not near 60.

By Camden Walker  | March 12, 2010; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Long-duration deluge starts tonight
Next: Significant flood risk from rising rivers & streams


We have .50" of rainfall here in Reston, VA as of now. The winds are starting to pick up some as well.

Posted by: TheAnalyst | March 12, 2010 6:34 AM | Report abuse

"If you know how to "get out on the town" with your rain slicker & goulashes..." Isn't goulash a Hungarian stew?

Posted by: postcomment | March 12, 2010 6:56 AM | Report abuse

maybe he's recommending carrying stew around in case you get stranded by floodwaters somewhere.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 12, 2010 7:05 AM | Report abuse

gang, nothing but rain here. when's the changeover to snow supposed to happen? if it doesn't happen soon, this could get dangerous and costly....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 12, 2010 7:09 AM | Report abuse

funny how this current "dryslot" is causing me absolutly no angst! there's no concern about accumulation maps or how to interpret "north and west of the city"...

well, enjoy the rain...i guess...see ya.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 12, 2010 7:12 AM | Report abuse

Oh goody....its spring...with all of that nasty, evil, costly winter weather behind us. So get outdoors everybody and enjoy your delightful weekend that its spring all your weather worries are over!

Posted by: ftwash | March 12, 2010 7:12 AM | Report abuse

At least the rain will wash the pollen out of the air for a few days. Pollen counts have been killer for the last ten days.

And all the lamb rams who needed to be castrated have been done the old fashioned way this year. All my ewes are done lambing.

Hey Weather Gang can you all provide a NOVA based pollen count?

I can finally put up the Thinsulate Muckboots and go my three season Muckboots.
Ground had almost dried out yesterday bummer. Doesn't take much rain to turn things into mud these days! I hate getting stuck in the ATV, Chevy pick up or diesel powered Defender 110. Its a pain walking back over a mile to get another vehicle to pull out the truck or ATV if there isn't a tree or something else I can hook a line from the winch too.


Posted by: sheepherder | March 12, 2010 7:42 AM | Report abuse

@ walter - You crack me up.

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | March 12, 2010 8:30 AM | Report abuse

Typical weather for the area. Looks to be another wet year with cool temps again at this rate. Don't know how much more precip the area can take before the ground says no mas! We could literally go 6 months with no precip and still be fine with water levels. The last week of decent weather was one of the biggest anomalies we have had in the past year. In fact it is almost unheard of to go a solid week without rain in this area these days. Is it too much to ask for a sunny and clear april with temps in the 60's and 70's? I've forgotten how it feels to live in an area where the sun actually shines and the sky is actually blue.

Posted by: j0nx | March 12, 2010 8:54 AM | Report abuse

Dammit Walter, you made me spit galosh on my goulashes.

Posted by: wiredog | March 12, 2010 9:07 AM | Report abuse

only about a half inch so far in Haymarket, but already there's alot of standing water all over my lawn. I hate to think what it's going to look like by Sunday. I may need a boat to get out.

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | March 12, 2010 9:41 AM | Report abuse


California we ain't! It seems to me the midwest and the east coast always have lousy weather. I can't wait for the hurricane remnants this summer...are we really spared from any weather misery around here?

Posted by: seasejs | March 12, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

I'm curious how snowlovers are feeling about this weekend's forecast.

Posted by: Ann-CapitalWeatherGang | March 12, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

This snowlover recognizes that it is all over until next winter. What a ride it was......
The last few inches of our front yard snow pile went away yesterday. So it's time now for seeds, pots, fertilizer & garden tools.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | March 12, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

This snowlover is still laughing at Walter! I hope you stay around, Walter, even though the snow is gone. Maybe we could freeze some of the rain in giant blocks and bring it over. You and your daughter would ROCK those ice sculptures!

Posted by: Hoyas4Ever | March 12, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

wiredog - did I make a mistake with my homophone words? I wanted to convey to make your shoes waterproof if going out ;)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | March 12, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse

Ann, I'm mostly sad it's not going to be sunny and 65. :(

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | March 12, 2010 10:35 AM | Report abuse

haha yes. While I've liked the recent weather too, Ian, I think sheepherder would agree with me that pollen needs to be washed away! I need it lol

sheepherder - While we don't yet have a pollen count for ya, we will definitely take it into consideration. Personally, if I really need to know how high/extra-high the pollen in my eyes will be--I check :-)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | March 12, 2010 10:58 AM | Report abuse

The last tree pollen report indicated 663 grains per cubic meter (as of Wednesday). That was up from 170 the day prior. Both are classified "high". I'd imagine it's been knocked down a good bit today.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | March 12, 2010 11:04 AM | Report abuse

I'm curious how snowlovers are feeling about this weekend's forecast.

At least most of the snow graudally melted over the last month so we don't have massive flooding. I am a snowlover and think all this rain is finally a nice change. We all know winter has been over since mid feb and this will clean the streets and air and make way for spring. Bring on the 2-4+ inches of rain and wind.

Posted by: ajmupitt | March 12, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Camden, I think the word you want is galoshes (, goulash is a stew :-)

Posted by: ana_b | March 12, 2010 11:19 AM | Report abuse

Any idea if I will be running in a downpour or just sprinkles for the 9am Sunday morning St. Patty's day 8k in DC?

Posted by: veronica7 | March 12, 2010 11:49 AM | Report abuse

Absolutely no thanks to all the naysayers who did the "no" dance and gave us all this unpleasant weather. Bet there will be lots of negative impacts from this rain, but at least we won't whine and point fingers. This snow lover hates the rain and the wishy-washy cold, gray, nasty ugliness of this snowlessness. I, for one, am still holding out the very slightest glimmer of hope for a surprise white morning in this year of super snow. If it could happen, it seems it would be in just this kind of year.

Posted by: manassasmissy | March 12, 2010 11:53 AM | Report abuse

The rain has helped me to feel normal again for the first time in a week! With the pollen counts so high, I was so groggy and stuffed up. Today, I can breathe!

Posted by: bachaney | March 12, 2010 12:04 PM | Report abuse

This snowlover seconds the opinions of manassasmissy.

Posted by: celestun100 | March 12, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

I echo the question of Veronica7: should we plan for rain Sunday morning around 9ish. I'll be running in the 8K race too. Thanks

Posted by: Dadat39 | March 12, 2010 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Pollen count is rather high considering that it's only silver maple with some elm and hazelnuts thus far...wait until the red maples, sugar maples, oaks and hickories get going...pollen counts skyrocket into the THOUSANDS!!!

Our tree pollen season may also be prolonged well beyond the usual local blooming season...we may be getting some later pollen blowing in from the Blue Ridge well after the local trees have stopped blooming. Trees up there bloom later than here and the prevailing wind is from the west.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | March 12, 2010 1:06 PM | Report abuse

@Dadat39, @veronica7

By Sunday morning, it looks like rain would probably be of the scattered shower variety. So there's certainly the risk it will be raining at race time. But rain is not a guarantee, and at this point it doesn't look like the morning will be an area-wide washout.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | March 12, 2010 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Amen manasassmissy!

Posted by: DaveB2 | March 12, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

0.71" of rainfall now here in Reston, VA (With 0.04" within the past Hour). The winds aren't all that strong right now, but they are consistent (Mostly from the NNE to ESE, with some good periodic gusts from the W and SW at 8 MPH). The Barometric Pressure dropped dramatically since 12 Noon as well (Currently 29.802 in./1009.1 mb), but it looks to be leveling out right now. The Temps. and Dewpoint have been level and running even all day too (Currently 49.5(F) with a Dewpoint of 48.1(F)). The Relative Humidity has been holding even at 95% (With a 96% Peak earlier).

For all of you race car fanatics, the current Ambient In-Air Density is 0.0736 lb./cu. ft. ;-)

Posted by: TheAnalyst | March 12, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

still just rain accumulation (except in local streams, rivers and basements...)

Ann (CWG), you mused,
"I'm curious how snowlovers are feeling about this weekend's forecast."

well, first, i share manassasmissy's sense of "snowlessness".... it's been about a month and a half since we've seen barren snowfree yards and parking lots....

and i think i can speak for every (true) snowlover in saying i wish it were snow. i consider it a waste of winter and a waste of precipitation.... snowlovers around these parts have to take it when we can get it.

were this FEB 12 and our forecast were 3" of rain, i'd be pretty darned distraught. but it's march 12 and snow now would be a bonus. of course i have let myself imagine 30" of snow.....sigh....even 12" or 6"...or 4" would have been fantastic....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 12, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

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