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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 03/ 1/2010

Tues. night snow chances remain suspect

By Jason Samenow

A close call, but near-miss most likely

* Near 50 to begin March: Full Forecast *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Tuesday night/Wednesday
Probability of Accumulating Snow (1" or more): 40%

For the last couple of days, we've talked about how the Tuesday night (into Wednesday) storm is likely to just miss us, spoiling the opportunity to add to our record-setting snow season. That's still the case. At the same time, we remain reluctant to entirely rule out the possibility of a more significant snowfall.

Although most model guidance continues to track the storm far enough east such that the metro region only receives a glancing blow, it comes close enough to make us a little nervous. Only a slight jog in the storm track to the west would increase the chance of snow accumulation.

But assuming the models are right (which is my sense) and the bulk of the storm misses us to the east, the most we'd probably get would be some "conversational" snow Tuesday night (which may even mix with rain, especially along and east of I-95) which would end pretty rapidly during the day Wednesday.

Here's my assessment of current accumulation potential:

Less than 1": 60%
1-2": 20%
2-5": 10%
5"+: 10%

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | March 1, 2010; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Calm days before next storm chance
Next: Forecast: March begins with shot at 50-degree day


dancing furiously, signaling towards the west.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 1, 2010 6:52 AM | Report abuse

You have a dance partner Walter

Posted by: bitner | March 1, 2010 7:07 AM | Report abuse

I'm joining in!!!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | March 1, 2010 7:19 AM | Report abuse

Snowlover2, I'll be your partner if bitner is walters...

Anyone else want to join in on the snow hoedown? :)

Posted by: MKoehl | March 1, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

I like that 60%.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | March 1, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

I'm dancin'!

Posted by: readerl | March 1, 2010 9:56 AM | Report abuse

it's "free dance" - everybody is everybody's partner!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 1, 2010 9:56 AM | Report abuse

@Jason: Does this storm's behavior potential remind you in any way of the Feb 2003 storm, forecast to miss us until the very last minute.....well, the last few hours, anyway...? We got socked with snow on that one, because the storm took a bit of a jog to the west, IIRC.

Posted by: --sg | March 1, 2010 10:03 AM | Report abuse


Not really. February 2003 showed major accumulations for several days leading up to the storm, even if the models did some shifting around. Also, there was a ton of cold air in place for that storm. This time, it's marginal.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | March 1, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Marginal???? Marginal???? What??? :)

I am dancing now too.

Seems like we should be getting ready for kite flying and forget about snow.

Posted by: celestun100 | March 1, 2010 11:40 AM | Report abuse

if feb 03 is not a good analogue, can you toss us a bone and find a big snow storm that IS a good analogue? is there a storm you recall that looked like this 36 hours out, but ended up delivering lots of snow?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 1, 2010 11:44 AM | Report abuse

Yeah- Toss us a bone! Find us a big snowstorm that IS a good analogue. Good idea, Walter.

Posted by: celestun100 | March 1, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse


January 25, 2000 -- Circumstances aren't exactly the same, but it's the best example of a storm that surprised on the upside, with little notice.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | March 1, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse


thanks...what a great day THAT was!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 1, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

I'm with Southside.

Like that 60%. Looks like one more night this season of having to wear pajamas right side out, burning candles to warm the atmosphere, turning fans to the east to blow the storm out to sea, etc.

Then, it's on to MY favorite season.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | March 1, 2010 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Favorite season!? I'll take a wonderful winter over DC's swampy springs any day! ThinkSpring, I hope your fans blow the Tiger mosquitos out to sea, too!

Posted by: kolya02 | March 1, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

I'm sooo dancing for the 40%. March 1 with warm temps means tick nymphs and deer ticks start coming out in the back yard. Can't wait for that and the violent spring thunderstorms!:( NOT

Posted by: manassasmissy | March 1, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

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