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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 04/16/2010

Forecast: Short sleeves today, jackets tomorrow

By Camden Walker

80s today to near 60 Sat. & Sun.; storm chance tonight

* Why is climate change popular online? | NatCast: T-storm? *
* Temps and more: Weather Wall | Pollen, AQI & UV: Health page *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
9Taste of early-summer warmth with shower or storm chance not entering picture until late.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny a.m. Increasing p.m. clouds & breeze. 20% chance of late-day shower/storm. Low-to-mid 80s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy & breezy. Increasing chance of showers/storms. 50s. | Tomorrow: 30% chance of a.m. shower. Partly sunny & windy. Low 60s. | Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny & breezy. Upper 50s to near 60. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A. Camden WalkerBreezes from the west really warm us up today ahead of a cold front approaching from our northwest. The best chance of showers and storms associated with the front conveniently waits until later this evening into the overnight, and the rain threat should quickly diminish as we get into the weekend. While both Saturday and Sunday will be dramatically cooler than today, with sometimes gusty winds to boot, times of sun may still make the outdoors somewhat inviting.

Today (Friday): Nice 'n warm! This will be our last day of above-average temperatures for a while. With plenty of morning & midday sun, highs should reach the low 80s, maybe even mid-80s. From around mid-afternoon onward, clouds could start to increase and winds from the west may gust to near 25 mph -- all this as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There's an outside risk (~20% chance) of a shower or thunderstorm after about 5 p.m. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies really cloud over during the evening with the chance of showers or thunderstorms increasing to around 40-50% after 9 p.m. or so, before decreasing toward dawn. Evening temperatures will be mild, falling through the 70s into the 60s, then to lows in the 50s by sunrise. Breezy conditions continue through the night with gusts to around 25-30 mph (possibly higher inside or around any storms). Confidence: Medium

Showers won't ruin my weekend, right? Keep reading for the forecast into next week...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Perhaps a few lingering showers through early-to-mid morning (25% chance). But for the most part, it's a partly sunny, cool and windy day. With 15-25 mph winds from the northwest, and gusts to near 35 mph, highs in the low 60s should fall some 20 degrees short of today's. Overall, a salvageable day if you dress appropriately. With the cooler air, it can be easy to forget about UV & pollen levels, both of which should be on the high side. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Plan for a pretty cool evening, at least compared to recent ones, as temperatures drop through the 50s and winds stay breezy, though less so than earlier in the day. Overnight lows cool to the upper 30s to low 40s in the suburbs, low-to-mid 40s downtown, under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: Don't let the partly to mostly sunny skies fool ya. Temperatures will struggle through the 50s to highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Those winds from the northwest dont quite go away, either, blowing around 10-20 mph. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

Partly cloudy skies greet our Sunday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

Continued cool on Monday & Tuesday with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-to-mid 60s. Though it's hard to complain about temperatures a few degrees below normal considering the fair amount of well-above-normal days we've had this spring. Confidence: Medium

By Camden Walker  | April 16, 2010; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Cooler and gusty, ugh. Maybe this is a good weekend to catch up on the minor boat maintenance that I've been putting off, rather than taking her out.

Posted by: --sg | April 16, 2010 5:11 AM | Report abuse

Will the volcanic erruption in Iceland play any part in our weather? I remember that following the erruption of Mt. Pinautubo in the Philippines back in the 80s (yes I am old) we had one of the coolest, rainiest summers I can ever recall.

Posted by: kbockl | April 16, 2010 7:44 AM | Report abuse

--sg sounds like the right plan yeah :-/ sorry
kbockl - maybe next week in our atmosphere there will be a bit of ash making for more vibrant colors at sunset. But it should be much of an impact on our hemisphere or seasonal climate. Check details at this neat write-up
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1462

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | April 16, 2010 8:12 AM | Report abuse

should *NOT* be much if any impact on our hemisphere

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | April 16, 2010 8:13 AM | Report abuse

Still waiting for the first real batch of t-storms to come through the area. The last threat produced nothing. While I know this round will be weak as well -- the primary threat being to the north -- when might we see some?

Posted by: bgaffney491 | April 16, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

bgaffney491 - you might get your wish for some thunder rumbling tonight, but nothing huge. Maybe late evening? I know I'll be watching radar later tonight! :) I like a non-severe storm every now & then, too.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | April 16, 2010 10:56 AM | Report abuse

Most of the thunderstorm activity seems to occur while I'm at my dance, between 8 PM and midnight--it's the period between 6 PM and 8 PM that's crucial for me.

The volcano in Iceland is at a high latitude; these volcanoes don't always affect the weather. Usually the volcanoes which DO affect our weather [by ejecting sulfur oxides and particulates into the atmosphere] are the ones in tropical latitudes, e.g. Pinatubo, Tambora, Krakatoa, El Chichon to name a few. This is because volcanic emissions at high altitude seem to cover more sky area when ejected in the tropics. Sulfur oxides in particular seem to exert a radiation-blocking or cooling effect. However volcanic ash may also contribute by dimming the solar radiation through blocking.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | April 16, 2010 11:59 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Camden an Bombo for some interesting volcano/weather lessons!

Posted by: kbockl | April 17, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

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