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Posted at 9:00 AM ET, 04/19/2010

Forecast: Slow and steady warming

By Jason Samenow

Rain possible Wed. and this weekend

* Pollen, air quality and UV: Health page | NatCast *
* Temps, clouds & more: Weather Wall | Get There *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
8A cold start, but enjoyable afternoon sunshine.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny, less wind. 64-68. | Tonight: Mostly clear and cool. 37-43. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 66-70. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

For the first several days of the week, we'll edge closer to 70-degree territory. By mid-to-late week, we'll reach it. Warm weather fans will be glad to know that in a week, 70 will, in fact, be average. Having said that, we've been no stranger to 70-degree weather this month despite our cool weekend: with highs averaging in the low 70s. While we've been warmer than average, we've been drier than average. And we'll be dry for a lot of this week, though showers may threaten this weekend.

Today (Monday): The day gets off to a very chilly start, with pockets of frost in the colder suburbs. But plentiful sunshine will warm us sufficiently to leave our jackets in the office for a lunch time walk. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Unlike the weekend, winds will be relatively light -- out of the west at about 10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Like the last couple of nights, mainly clear skies and light winds will allow temps to take a pretty steep drop. Lows will range from the mid-to-upper 30s in the colder suburbs to the low 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the week...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): After another chilly start, late April sunshine will deliver one more beautiful afternoon. Temperatures will head all the way up into the upper 60s. Winds will be light Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: Clouds gradually increase as weak low pressure to the south drifts closer. This will keep overnight temperatures a little milder than the last few nights, with lows 42-46 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday's forecast is a little tricky due to the proximity of the weak area of low pressure to the south. Considerable cloud cover is possible, but rain showers should mainly be confined to central and southern Va. Still, I'll call for 30% chance of light rain, primarily in the afternoon. The clouds will probably keep temperatures from hitting 70, instead maxing out in the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium

I think we cross the 70-degree threshold Thursday and Friday as at least partial sunshine returns both days. A push of milder air from the west will be just strong enough to produce highs in the low 70s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

A complex storm system in the center of the country that will extend to the East Coast presents a challenging weekend forecast. Rain showers appear possible both Saturday and Sunday, but it's too soon to say if these will be scattered and mostly confined to the afternoon and evening -- or more widespread and persistent. Highs both days should be around 70 with lows in the 50s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | April 19, 2010; 9:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Iceland volcano unlikely to cause global cooling

Comments

"Rain showers appear possible both Saturday and Sunday, but it's too soon to say if these will be scattered and mostly confined to the afternoon and evening -- or more widespread and persistent. Highs both days should be around 70 with lows in the 50s. Confidence: Low-Medium"

This is why I love CWG. Contrast this to one of the local meteorologists who used the term "washout" for this weekend. I just think they are engaging in a psychological fear game that they hope translates to the viewer staying tuned to them instead of someone else. In a couple of days, when we are in the three day forecast, fine, use it then if that is the thinking.


Posted by: jaybird926 | April 19, 2010 7:10 AM | Report abuse

hi guys,
while i'm waiting for your volcano post, i've been reading conflicting reports elsewhere....so i'm counting on you for the definitive truth....no pressure, though....

some places say it's winding down:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/fl-iceland-volcano-tourism-20100412,0,7449389.story

and (most) others say it isn't:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2010-04-19-1Avolcano19_CV_N.htm

i understand also that a volcano erupting in iceland is less likely to affect global weather because of it's high latitude and the way air circulates globally, but also that there's the possibility of this volcano causing a nearby larger volcano to erupt.

from that usatoday link:
"When Katla went off in the 1700s, the USA suffered a very cold winter," says Gary Hufford, a scientist with the Alaska Region of the National Weather Service. "The Mississippi River froze just north of New Orleans, and the East Coast, especially New England, had an extremely cold winter. Depending on a new eruption, Katla could cause some serious weather changes."

while i understand this eruption is "costly and dangerous" for many people in the world, my main concern whether it will cause more snow to fall in my yard next winter.... ;-)

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 19, 2010 9:57 AM | Report abuse

@jaybird926

Thanks for the nice words...

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | April 19, 2010 10:19 AM | Report abuse

Walter, let's touchbase on this after monitoring another week of this volcanic eruption. As of now, it is much too early to state winter impacts. I myself am not yet concerned for any climactic change from this eruption. Just not enough material in the stratosphere to worry. Yet.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | April 19, 2010 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Just for the record, I, too am very interested to know how this might impact snowfall amounts here in the future. :) But my self-interested curiosity in no way reflects a lack of compassion or awareness on my part for those whose lives are clearly being dramatically impacted by this volcano right now. Most disconcerting is the potential risk of long term health problems caused by the silica particles.

Posted by: manassasmissy | April 19, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

manassasmissy,
agreed. i've read about people inhaling those "little shards of glass". sounds horrible.

i'd much prefer sulfur compounds going WAY UP HIGH in the atmosphere - sounds like that's what we need for snow my yard.... little glass particles doesn't sound so good....

jason said yesterday they'd be posting something on the volcano today.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 19, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

oh...why, there it is... moving on the the next post!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 19, 2010 11:04 AM | Report abuse

Let's all do the rain dance!!!! We haven't had substanital rain in WEEKS - wash that pollen out, give us allergy suffers a few hours of a break! What I wouldn't give for those TV weathermen to be right and have the weekend be a "washout"!!!! :-)

Posted by: mamory1975 | April 19, 2010 12:01 PM | Report abuse

mamory1975...we DON'T need rain...we got plenty of groundwater from snowmelt during February and March!!!

Last spring we needed rain more than we do now. At any rate I do NOT want a washout next weekend, though a couple of afternoon thunderstorms would certainly be welcome.

As I posted yesterday, we could probably go rainless through Labor Day without any huge water stress locally. Last winter, by contrast, we were dry, and really needed the spring rains which then got rather persistent and excessive.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | April 19, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

I am one of those people who love those severe thunder storms and aim hoping for some on Saturday and Sunday i am also one of those people who have really really bad allergies. P.S. are severe thunder storms possible this weekend?

Posted by: snowlover31 | April 19, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

I'm with you, mamory1975, bring on the rain!! While Bombo is correct in noting that groundwater tables are significantly higher than they were a year ago at this time, surface moisture is drying out. Consistent with its underperforming reputation, National Airport's year-to-date precipitation is 2 inches below normal.

Our citizens association will be planting 12 trees in one of our neighborhood parks on May 1st with Casey Trees. The last thing our beloved new trees need is one of Bombo's summer droughts!

Tom in Michigan Park

Posted by: TominMichiganParkDC | April 19, 2010 5:20 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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