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Posted at 4:50 PM ET, 04/25/2010

Forecast: Chance of storms to close out weekend

By Brian Jackson

Some risk of severe t'storms late this p.m. and evening

* Severe T'storm Watch thru evening for possible hail, 70 mph gusts *
* Where's the rain? Radar & more: Weather Wall | CWG on Twitter *
* 10 killed as tornado strikes Miss.; others injured *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
5With a late-day severe storm threat, get your outdoor deeds done early.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny. 40-50% chance of p.m. storms. Low-to-mid 70s. | Tonight: Chance of showers/storms. Mid-to-upper 50s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. 60% chance of p.m. showers/storms. Mid-60s to low 70s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

There's some risk of an active afternoon and evening today as the storm system that brought strong tornadoes to the South moves into our area. We don't expect anything of that magnitude around here but we could see some stronger storms late this afternoon and this evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances stay with us into Tuesday but by midweek we begin to clear and start a slow warm-up towards the weekend.


Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): A warm front and some breaks in the clouds sent highs into the low-to-mid 70s this afternoon, which could be warm enough to destabilize our atmosphere and spark scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening (40-50% chance). Some thunderstorms could reach severe levels (20% chance), with the potential for damaging wind, hail and even an isolated tornado or two. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:
Probability: 40-50%
Coverage: Scattered

Tonight: The shower and thunderstorm threat (40-50% chance) continues into the evening. Then, as the loss of daytime heating stabilizes the atmosphere, just a chance of a few showers after midnight or so. Lows should drop into the mid-to-upper 50s overnight with some fog possible. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading to see when we'll break into the clear again....

Tomorrow (Monday): Low pressure in the upper atmosphere sticks around and continues to cause unsettled conditions. Some fog and drizzle may linger into the moring. But like today, we may also see a few morning and midday breaks in the clouds before an approaching cold front increases shower and thunderstorm chances to around 60% in the afternoon. Severe weather is less likely than today, but some storms could bring gusty winds. Highs range from the mid-60s where clouds/drizzle linger longest to the low 70s in areas that see more cloud breaks. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: The showers and thunderstorm threat continues into the evening before waning overnight. Skies should stay gray throughout, and look for overnight lows in the low-to-mid 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

We'll have to endure one more day of shower chances on Tuesday, but decreased from the previous couple days at around 30-40%. Otherwise, highs head for the low 60s with partly sunny skies and a noticeable breezes around 10-20 mph from the northwest. Overnight, under mostly clear skies lows should drop into the mid-40s downtown with some low 40s in the north and west suburbs. Confidence: Medium

Wednesday we finally break completely free of shower chances. Partly to mostly sunny skies restore our faith in fair weather as highs likely top out in the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

By Brian Jackson  | April 25, 2010; 4:50 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Severe Thunderstorm Watch through the evening

Comments

SPC sees favorable areas for tornadoes for those of you off to the north a bit.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

YIKES!

brian, CWG,
can you please translate that? i see

"TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT LOCATIONS INVOF THE MASON-DIXON LINE FROM NRN WV/SRN PA INTO MD/NRN VA WHERE MORE ROBUST LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AMIDST STRONGER 0-1KM SRH."

"MD/NRN VA"

that's US!, right!?

we're planning a youth group hike in great falls this afternoon from around 1:00 to 5:00. should we prepare for a tornado or "ping pong ball" sized hail?!?!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 25, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

btw, in contrast to snow flakes, ping-pong ball sized hail sounds inconvenient, dangerous and costly.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 25, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Walter, in basic terms it means that the highest threat for tornadoes would be in an east/west band from say, Leesburg to the south, to York in the North.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

Where are these storms on the radar? I don't see anything moving into our area, and we're currently trying to decide whether to have daughter's birthday party outside or not (3-5 pm). What do you think--chance it or not?

Vic in Silver Spring/Colesville

Posted by: bhss | April 25, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

jeez...that's pretty darn close to great falls - and the washington area in general. really, seriously?!

what kind of chances are we talking about for severe storms? we're about to leave, i think. we'll have about 20 kids ages 8-14 or so with us. you guys are scaring me....

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 25, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Walter, if you check Hazardous Weather (NOAA) or Severe (Wunderground.com), there's a graphic showing the map location of the severe t-storm watch. Most of W.Va. is under it already. I wouldn't risk the Falls Church hike.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | April 25, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

I'm not sure I read that as the highest threat in the area (current Meso disc). SPC has the whole area in 5%... would expect further statements this afternoon. With sun etc we may get a tornado watch.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

@bhss (Vic)

Widely scattered storms are just starting to develop in WV. These will likely increase in coverage and intensity as they head east but still may be hit or miss, and may not arrive in Silver Spring until after 5 pm. You could chance it--just be prepared to move inside if necessary.

@walter

No need for panic here. Even though there the potential for some severe activity, we're still talking low odds. Just be prepared to move inside if thunderstorms threaten.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

3:20 PM... no big storm threats yet...Sterling is mentioning winds or hail for us possible later afternoon. Nats' game likely to wind up before any threatening weather.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | April 25, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Forecast has been updated to decrease chance of storms and push back timing more towards this evening.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

57 degrees at BWI but 79 degrees at Dulles and 76 at Reagan. That's an enormous temperature contrast.

Posted by: mickb1 | April 25, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

mickb1 - isn't it impressive to see how a warm front works? It might make it to Baltimore, we'll see!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Severe hail warned cell crossing into VA nw of Winchester and heading toward Martinsburg and Hagerstown.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

And, SPC just put out a Severe thunderstorm watch for the whole area, not up on their website yet though.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Ah, our first Watch of the season - did people predict this in our poll, earlier in the week? :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Well, I can definately tell you where the warm front is. I left work in suitland under sunny skies, right at the 95N split off from the beltway, I ran into a bank of clouds and fog and the temp dropped 15 degrees. Now back in columbia, its exactly like I left it this morning, dank, dreary, foggy, and in the 50s.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 25, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

ian,
didn't have time to reply before leaving. thank so much. it was your 5% estimate that made me confident to go. everything worked out fine.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 25, 2010 9:54 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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