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Posted at 3:30 PM ET, 04/ 7/2010

PM Update: End to record heat in sight

By Ian Livingston

Chance of t-storms late Thurs., then much cooler

* 3 years ago today: snow | Heat poll | Nats-Phillies forecast *
* CWG T-Shirts | Clouds and more: Weather Wall | Get There *

Another day and another record at Dulles, where the high has reached at least 90 so far. It's the third day in a row Dulles has set a record high. While the heat wave hasn't been record-breaking at National, which has been around longer and cooled at times by a breeze off the water, it's been impressive nonetheless. Hard to imagine we were still digging out from Snowmageddon and preparing for another snow dump just two months ago. We stay warm tomorrow before a chance of storms late.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMap (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Another summer-like evening is ahead as temperatures fall through the 80s heading into sunset. Overnight lows range from the mid-to-upper 60s in town to around 60 in the coolest suburbs. Light winds from the southwest.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Days before a cold front often "over-perform" with warmth and tomorrow should do the same. Partly sunny skies, and warm winds from the south/southwest around 15-20 mph with higher gusts ahead of a cold front, should push highs to at least the mid-80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms -- some potentially strong -- are possible in the late afternoon, mainly after 4 p.m., and become likely during the evening.

See Dan Stillman's much cooler forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Hurricane Forecast: The hurricane experts at Colorado State University are out with their latest prediction for the 2010 tropical season, which officially begins June 1. Their numbers?... an above-average season with 15 named storms, eight of them hurricanes and four of those major (Category 3 or higher). The forecasters cite a "dissipating El Nino" and "expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures" as factors tilting the odds toward an above-average season.

By Ian Livingston  | April 7, 2010; 3:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Current conditions in Burke: 86.5 and mostly sunny.

The Storm Prediction Center puts our area in a slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms tomorrow:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Posted by: Yellowboy | April 7, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

boy, that hurricane forecast makes it sound like it could be a DANGEROUS and COSTLY (not to mention inconvenient) non-winter! do i recall correctly that the last few hurricane season predictions have been pretty wrong? - like we were supposed to get lots of hurricanes but didn't?

also, you said forecasters are mentioning a "dissipating el nino". i understand one of the reasons we had such a GREAT winter was the "weak el nino" (along with something about the NAO). does this hurricane forecast imply that we won't be in a weak el nino next winter?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 7, 2010 4:37 PM | Report abuse

I have noticed several repeated references to past snow events since spring started. Today's link to the Feb, snows, the picture the other day of a recent April snow, a post on what snow piles are left. Do you guys think it's still winter? The cynic in me thinks you are doing this to keep traffic coming to your site, since you get many more hits during the winter than at other times of the year...

Posted by: steske | April 7, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

@walter-in-fallschurch: Latest long-rage CPC/NCEP El Nino forecast (released earlier today) has a La Nada to weak La Nina for next winter with a near complete dissipation of El Nino conditions by or before July. That's assuming I'm reading this correctly, and I'd like to think that I am. ;)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMonE120.gif

Posted by: hobbes9 | April 7, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

hobbes9,
cool graph. looks like that "ensemble mean" line crosses the "la nada" (nice term btw...) axis around june. harrumph....

any idea what a weak la nina means for snow? anyone?

i also see that there are some "members" that remain positive, in the el nino range, so i guess there's still a chance we could be in a weak el nino next winter.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 7, 2010 5:04 PM | Report abuse

Neutral to weak nina is probably our best hope for a season after a nino winter at least historically speaking. A lot of research on this past winter still needs to be done. It was about as strong a "mod nino" as you'll see and some say it was really "strong". I think the Feb snow was well seen in advance as weakening Ninos tend to have good Feb snow (though an argument could be made we had a pretty short window this yr) but other parts of the winter did not necessarily fit the established norm.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 7, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

@steske

The mention in today's post is purely conversational, points out the relative speed at which we went from unprecedented snow to fairly extreme April heat. As for the recent posts you refer to, one showed a melting snow pile to help illustrate what was a mild March. And today's post highlighted the contrast between this April's heat and what it can sometimes be like... e.g., the snow 3 years ago.

Generally speaking, I don't think it's a secret that we want people to come to the site. Thus the reason we strive for timely posts on topics many readers are interested in, which includes snow.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | April 7, 2010 5:18 PM | Report abuse

How does today pollen count of 4000 map on the new CWG Pollen Page?

I don't recall sneezing or watery eyes during Snowmageddon, Snowpocalypse or Snoverkill. This is like being forced to eat pickled beets after savoring a silky chocolate tart.

As for next season, don't care if it's an el nino or a la nina, as long as it brings la nieve and lots of it. DCA's 56.1" was nifty but DCA 70" would be heavenly.

Posted by: JerryFloyd1 | April 7, 2010 6:06 PM | Report abuse

thanks ian.

when you say "Neutral to weak nina is probably our best hope for a season after a nino winter at least historically speaking" do you mean our "best hope" for snow the following winter?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | April 7, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

LOL WAPO still calling it Snowmaggedon like their failed leader.

Posted by: zcxnissan | April 7, 2010 9:36 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of snow, Sue Palka mentioned snow in the mountains (their futurecast map showed some over the Alleghenies)... but looking at the 10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn GFS map it doesn't look cold enough to my untrained eye... what do you guys think?

Yellowboy, fyi my dad reported seeing a snow pile recently in the railroad cut behind the Burke Center Safeway where they dumped a bunch... but I haven't talked to him in a few days...

Posted by: spgass1 | April 7, 2010 11:07 PM | Report abuse

Ugh it's 87 in my apartment. Can't wait for the storms to come through and the temps to drop.

Posted by: ana_b | April 7, 2010 11:27 PM | Report abuse

It appears as though the snow pile next to the Kettler Capitals Iceplex in Ballston has finally disappeared...and with it speculation over whether non-melting snow in the summer contributes to Ice Ages.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | April 7, 2010 11:52 PM | Report abuse

walter, sorry for the slow response but yes that's correct.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | April 8, 2010 10:48 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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