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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 05/17/2010

Forecast: Murky Monday with cool rain

By Matt Rogers

Shower chances, cool temperatures continue tomorrow

* Hail photo & video | Later: More severe storm pics *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Traffic *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
1Dreary rain, on a Monday too. A bit colder and it could have been a big fat zero.
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight


Today: Cloudy with rain. 56-62. | Tonight: Showers likely. 52-56. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with a chance of more showers. 59-64. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


If you're one who believes meteorologists should apologize for bad weather, then you'll most certainly be demanding an apology for today. So with that, I'm terribly sorry you'll have to contend with such a damp and dreary Monday. The real blame, though, should fall on a low-pressure area being carried slowly along the southern branch of the jet stream. That means cool and rainy weather today, with lingering clouds and shower chances into Wednesday.

Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy and cool is the backdrop to persistent rain through the day. Look for rain to be moderate at times by midday or afternoon, with the potential for around .5-.75" by evening (southern suburbs should see the highest totals). Temperatures should be mainly steady in the upper 50s to near 60 with light breezes from the east/northeast. Despite the dour day, the soaking will help area rain deficits that are around 3" below normal since March 1. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: This juicy area of low pressure should still be working through the region and we could pick up an additional .1-.3" or so of rain, mostly in the form of periodic showers (70% chance). Cloudy skies continue to dominate and temperatures won't fall much from their daytime levels. Look for lows in the 50s with cool winds from the east and northeast. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): The best chance of showers is in the morning (60%) with temperatures stuck in the 50s. Afternoon highs should move toward the upper 50s to low 60s with overcast skies and still a chance (30%) of scattered showers. Winds around 10-20 mph from the north and northeast add to the rawness of the day. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow Night: Clouds are expected to hold on tight Tuesday night with the chance of scattered showers remaining around 30% and lows in the 50s again. Confidence: Low-Medium


Wednesday could start to see somewhat of a recovery in the temperature department with highs aiming for the upper 60s to near 70. Still, a lot of clouds probably hang around with a lingering 30% chance of showers. Winds should be more from the west and northwest. Confidence: Medium

Thursday and Friday are most likely our nicest days of this work week. Mostly sunny skies on Thursday and partly sunny on Friday should be sufficient to get highs to the mid-to-upper 70s or even low 80s with morning lows in the 50s. There is a chance skies could turn cloudier by later in the day Friday as the next system approaches. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend is threatened by another disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream. For now, this one does not appear to be the washout we're now seeing to start the week, though it's too early to rule out such a scenario (which would surely elicit another meteorologist apology). For now, we'll go with partly cloudy skies, a 40% of showers, highs in the 70s and morning lows in the 60s to upper 50s. Confidence: Low

By Matt Rogers  | May 17, 2010; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Good Monday Morning!

Thanks Matt for pointing out the deficit rainfall.

.44" rainfall overnight in the Valley.

This is more than welcome after only 1.07" during April, along with almost incessant winds, which amplified evaporation, resulting in many parched lawns and gardens.

Hopefully, we will have a wet May!!

Posted by: AugustaJim | May 17, 2010 7:02 AM | Report abuse

I thought this coming Saturday was supposed to be nice???? Grrrrr...

If we're gonna have 3 days of nasty, ugly weather, I at least want a nice weekend out of it.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 17, 2010 7:28 AM | Report abuse

ThinkSpring - Saturday might still be salvaged. Still far enough out in the forecast period that the details of the day's weather can change! Hold out before completely writing off the weekend this early :-)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | May 17, 2010 8:38 AM | Report abuse

Today's Daily Digit - One (1) seems a little harsh? Nice rainy spring day, good sleeping weather, good for the plants, well above freezing. I know that it's subjective, but if this was a month or two later in the middle of the dogs days, we would a be happy about it.

Posted by: drewbird911 | May 17, 2010 9:08 AM | Report abuse

gotta agree with drewbird - some people really like a good rainstorm. If you're a long distance runner running on a day like today is close to the ideal. That Daily Digit number really needs to be a lot higher. Different strokes!

Posted by: hohandy | May 17, 2010 9:12 AM | Report abuse

Good Morning CWG,

I am very troubled with the lack of coverage last Friday evening when tornado warnings were issued for Anne Arundel County. The three major networks in Baltimore gave the warning information on the bottom of the TV screen, but no live cut ins took place. I guess Jeopardy and "Wheel of Torture" were more prudent. I did manage to see live coverage on some of the DC channels......But something that troubled me more was the fact a representative from MEMA had stated that cars on highways should pull off underpasses and to seek shelter under the trusses. Was this not the wrong piece of information? I was told at a weather training that people could be sucked out if a tornado went over one. Thanks for letting me vent!

Posted by: jcmcgrath1969 | May 17, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

Yes, I'd give the Daily Digit a 4. Temperature is pleasant, rain is light and intermittent so far, cloud cover is not so dark.

Posted by: jiji1 | May 17, 2010 9:55 AM | Report abuse

Rain is nice...but warmer please.
I give the day a "4".

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 17, 2010 10:26 AM | Report abuse

Happy to get some rain, and better M/T than S/S.

Posted by: ah___ | May 17, 2010 10:43 AM | Report abuse

Thanks, Camden. I'll hold out hope.

And, yes, a "1" for today is accurate. Don't see any reason for it to be any higher.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 17, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

I agree, a "1" is a little harsh. The garden needs the rain and it is not 39 degrees! While the soul loves the sun, it accepts the need for a little rain. And, if apologies are needed for today, then thanks for Thurs -- it looks like a nice evening for ZooFari!

Posted by: erbele | May 17, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

i was watching an "on demand" movie with my daughter and they "broke in" to that broadcast with a tornado warning. of course all the places they listed were not close enough to falls church for me to be worried, but i did hear warnings.

hahaha... what? not enough inconvenient, costly and dangerous thunder and lightning for ya? ;-) hahaha.... just razzin' ya' ;-)

but seriously, given how people are starting to complain about "drought conditions" and so forth, this seems like a perfect kind of rain: slow and gentle enough to soak in, doesn't cause any run-off/erosion, not much chance of power outages... if it's got to be raining, this seems pretty good to me. agreed, i' like to have it not be like this over the weekend though.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | May 17, 2010 11:14 AM | Report abuse

Hohandy is right. I did my long run yesterday but went for a 5-6 mile recovery run this morning and it was very comfortable. At least here in Rosslyn the rain is very light.

Posted by: marathoner | May 17, 2010 11:28 AM | Report abuse

That "1" is accurate. The rain isn't the problem; it's the low pressure that comes with it. As I've been mentioning, I'm having my remaining wisdom teeth extracted tomorrow afternoon, and I would have appreciated higher barometric pressure to assist me in my recuperation.

As all weather-wise people know, low pressure makes aches and pains harder to bear, and is the reason why some folks can forecast an approaching storm on the basis of their arthritis, which is more painful as the barometer falls.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 17, 2010 11:36 AM | Report abuse

And, AugustaJim, it was MIGHTY INCONSIDERATE of you to bring this low pressure in just in time for my oral surgery...though I must admit we could use some rainfall. As I said, the Anti-Bombo much-needed-rain crowd really pulled a nasty one on me this time!... Like I schedule this procedure for the one Tuesday night I don't have to go to the Clarendon Ballroom thanks to some dance-canceling "private event" the MNR crowd brings in low pressure to make my recuperation more miserable.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 17, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

@erbele, I like what you said: "While the soul loves the sun, it accepts the need for a little rain." Agreed!

I'm off today, and this nice and quiet rainy day is proving to be a great stress reliever.

Posted by: natsncats | May 17, 2010 11:50 AM | Report abuse

The midday weather model from NOAA is currently arriving and it still shows showers for us on Saturday and Sunday with the potential for cool winds from the east. Like everyone has said, we need the rain.

Posted by: MattRogers | May 17, 2010 12:15 PM | Report abuse

I drove in to downtown and that was a 1.

Posted by: chunche | May 17, 2010 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, I considered the "1" relative to what could happen on May 17th and weighed in the Monday back-to-work hardship. So, getting a high of 39F would be way off for this time of year and not factored into the scale. And definitely a good point was made about the poor folks with aches and pains who suffer with persistent low pressure like this. But I for "1" am happy to catch up on our rain deficit.

Posted by: MattRogers | May 17, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Is there real-time info on this site about how much rain has fallen so far?

Posted by: steske | May 17, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Bob Ryan is joining up with Doug Hill on ABC7?

Posted by: manassasmissy | May 17, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse


On the left sidebar in the "Links" box, click the "Current Conditions" link. You can then select your desired observing station and see rain totals (among other information).

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 17, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

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