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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 05/ 5/2010

Forecast: Nice weather with only a few flaws

By Dan Stillman

Mild through Saturday; Much cooler Mom's Day

* We grade our winter outlook | NatCast | UnitedCast *
* Outside now? Temps, clouds & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
9Sun and mild air that feels great w/o the early-week humidity.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny & beautiful. Low 80s. | Tonight: Turning partly cloudy. Upper 50s to mid-60s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny & breezy. Low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

May is off to a warm start, after an April that finished nearly 5 degrees above normal at Reagan National, and shows no signs of significant cooling until Sunday into early next week. In the meantime, humidity stays mostly in check as plenty of sun makes for a pleasant Wednesday and Thursday. Late Friday into Saturday presents the only real shower/thunderstorm threat through the forecast period, but for now it's hard to say how substantial the threat will be.

Today (Wednesday): Welcome to a mostly sunny and beautiful Wednesday. With low humidity, temperatures climb well into the 70s by lunchtime and max out in the low 80s for afternoon highs. Breezes pick up to around 10 mph from the south by afternoon. Confidence: High

Tonight: Skies turn partly cloudy this evening or overnight as a cool front approaches. A light breeze from the south/southwest keeps the mild air mass locked in. So lows should be well above average, ranging from the upper 50s in some of the cooler suburbs to the low-to-mid 60s near and inside the Beltway. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through Mother's Day...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Overall it's another pleasant day with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. But there are a couple caveats: A weak cool front passing through kicks up some gusty breezes from the west, and while most of the moisture with the front should stay north of the metro area, we can't totally rule out an isolated shower or t'storm (less than 20% chance). What about humidity? It rises to somewhat noticeable levels for the morning into midday before dropping during the afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Partly to mostly clear and refreshingly cool with lows mainly in the 50s. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

Friday continues our stretch of nice weather with partly sunny skies, highs in the 80s and an increasing afternoon breeze from the south. Confidence: Medium-High

There's a 30-40% chance a cold front coming from the west gets close enough to threaten showers and maybe a t'storm Friday evening or overnight as lows drop back to the 60s, and a 60-70% chance the shower/storm potential doesn't arrive until Saturday. Confidence: Low-Medium

Don't have much confidence yet in the timing of a cold front expected to pass through on Saturday, or in how much shower/storm activity we'll see along the front. Best-guess forecast?... Partly sunny with highs in the 70s to near 80, and a 40% chance that a line of showers and/or storms -- not necessarily a solid line -- moves through at some point during the day. Once the front passes, winds should blow at a pretty good clip from the west/northwest. Confidence: Low

By Saturday night you'll certainly notice a much cooler air mass settling into place. Winds probably remain breezy with lows in the rather chilly 40s. Confidence: Medium

Mother's Day Sunday should provide plenty of sun, but will almost certainly be a much cooler and possibly breezy day with highs likely in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | May 5, 2010; 10:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: 2010 Hurricane season outlooks: Tropical trouble

Comments

Why not a 10 for today?

Posted by: rwalker66 | May 5, 2010 9:18 AM | Report abuse

@rwalker66

I knew that question was coming :) ... Actually had a '10' in my original draft. But decided low 80s in early May was just hot enough to dock a digit. My standards may be too high. Anyone else itching for that 9 to go up to a 10? -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 5, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

70s are the zone for a "10" I say! (I support the "9") :-)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | May 5, 2010 10:48 AM | Report abuse

CWG - How confident are you of showers on Friday night say from 6-10pm?

My favorite Friday night outdoor concert series kicks off for the summer this Friday and I'd be very displeased if the first one of the year was rained out. I look forward to this all winter.

Seems like the trend has been pushing the front's approach on the area Fri/Sat later and later as the week goes by.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 5, 2010 10:56 AM | Report abuse

@ThinkSpring

As the forecast above indicates, showers are far from a sure bet Friday night -- "There's a 30-40% chance a cold front coming from the west gets close enough to threaten showers and maybe a t'storm Friday evening or overnight as lows drop back to the 60s, and a 60-70% chance the shower/storm potential doesn't arrive until Saturday." -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 5, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

I'm with ThinkSpring on this one...don't want/need any severe weather for the big Friday night dance!

Could be problems for my PM trip to Ballston today, though, evidently there's a power outage down there...hope the Food Court is up and running by 3 PM. Can't go to Ballston on Friday PM this week due to the aforementioned dance. Apparently power is out hrom Ballston to Glen Carlyn, but I still have power in Columbia Heights West.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 5, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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