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Posted at 3:05 PM ET, 05/22/2010

Forecast: Shower risk grows late today into Sunday

By Jason Samenow

* Where's the rain? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | NatCast *
* As Haiti recovers, hurricane season looms | Cape Cod wind farm *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
5A nice enough start, but afternoon showers play spoiler.
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight


Today: Showers likely to develop this afternoon. Mid-70s. | Tonight: Showers likely. Low 60s to near 60. | Tomorrow: Occasional showers. Low 70s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


I hate to say it, but increasingly numerous showers this weekend may frustrate many of you with outdoor plans. Will it rain the whole time? No. I'm not talking about a washout. In fact, through early-to-mid afternoon today, it's mainly dry. But beginning mid-to-late this afternoon and especially overnight and into tomorrow, we will most likely have to dodge on-and-off showers. And the cloudy, damp weather pattern may extend into early next week.

Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): Most of the region is dry this morning, though clouds will increase. This afternoon, scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms should develop from west to east. These showers will probably be most numerous in the evening -- so some spots may stay dry through the daylight hours. Highs head for the mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Scattered showers and thundershowers are likely overnight. I'm not anticipating widespread heavy rain, but there could be a few downpours. Amounts should range from 0.25-0.5" -- with some locally heavier totals. Rather mild temps only drop to the low 60s to near 60. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through early next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): The likelihood of showers continues (60-70% chance) as the weak upper level weather system over us just sluggishly drifts southward. It probably won't rain all day (i.e. there should be breaks in the action), but the coverage of rain may well be more widespread than previously forecast. The clouds and rain keep high temperatures from exceeding the low 70s or so. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Rain showers remain a possibility, especially in the evening. They should begin to decrease in coverage as the night wears on, with lows around 60. Confidence: Medium


Moist flow from the east both Monday and Tuesday will make it difficult to rid ourselves of the cloud cover and we'll also have the risk of occasional showers. However, any showers will probably be widely scattered and concentrated to our south and east. Highs both days should be in the 70s with overnight lows near 60. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | May 22, 2010; 3:05 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: NatCast: Chance of showers, especially late
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Good weekend for some yard work -- because the rain will be welcome!

Posted by: rosilandjordan | May 22, 2010 9:31 AM | Report abuse

I'm still mystified about all this talk about Sunday rain...while my barometer reads aoa 30.15 and weather maps tend to show HIGH PRESSURE building in.

Sterling keeps talking about an upper-air guess is that it tends to fizzle...and we get less rain than widely predicted tomorrow. The possibility of a subtropical low approaching from the southeast could enhance precipitation chances next week--especially to our south and east.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 22, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Weather Wall's map tends to confirm my analysis--the low/trough with center just west of Cleveland looks less impressive this morning.

Great dryline running from Nebraska to West Texas...should enhance lift on the moist eastward side and promote some severe action over the Plains...good day for TWC's Vortex2 storm chasing team.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 22, 2010 1:25 PM | Report abuse

While there is some ridging evident off the coast we do have upper level energy progged to be right over us tomorrow (see NAM as example). It's a cutoff piece of energy but should be enough to kick off some rains through tomorrow.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 22, 2010 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Rain, mostly light but with periods of moderate intensity, moving thru for the past hour.
Great for gardening, not so much for picnicking.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 22, 2010 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Wow, we've gotten almost an inch this afternoon. Agreed that it's great for the garden, but I resent not being able to dine al fresco tonite!

Posted by: weathergrrl | May 22, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

Woken up by loud rain, louder thunder in Centreville VA. Enough already.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 23, 2010 12:47 AM | Report abuse

Thunder just woke up the dog, who woke me up. And of course the loud rain isn't making the dog happy.

Posted by: VAOrangeFish | May 23, 2010 1:20 AM | Report abuse

Power outage around 2 a.m. here in Rockville that lasted around 15 minutes, heavy rain now. Small to medium sized branches and limbs down in some roadways out there, be on the lookout for that in the early morning hours here.

Posted by: Havoc737 | May 23, 2010 4:54 AM | Report abuse

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