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Posted at 4:30 PM ET, 05/23/2010

Forecast: Clouds linger into Monday

By Brian Jackson

* NatCast | Follow CWG on Facebook and Twitter *
* Quake-ravaged Haiti faces a new foe: Hurricane season *

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
 
4Showers and drizzle around, but at least it'll be semi-warm.
 
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy. Widespread a.m. showers. A few p.m. showers. 69-74. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Low-to-mid 60s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, 30% chance for showers. 71-76. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

While we got lucky for the majority of yesterday and partly sunny skies held out through the mid-afternoon, we won't be so fortunate today. An upper level disturbance gets an assist from some easterly flow -- enough to keep us in the clouds with scattered showers, especially through the morning. With no strong high pressure to build in behind this system, we'll stay in an unsettled pattern through midweek. While chances for rain will be on the low side tomorrow through Wednesday, we may not be able to break out into clear, blue skies.


Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Don't expect any flooding rains or all-day washouts, but we're in for a bit of a soggy day. Cool, damp, maritime air means a strong likelihood (80%) for showers. The most consistent activity probably occurs earlier in the day. Later in the day, the showers may taper to drizzle or dry periods. Highs will be kept in check by the dampness, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: A 30-40% chance of a few showers this evening and overnight. Some drizzle and fog are also not out of the question. Otherwise, we'll have a mostly cloudy night, with temperatures staying in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds continue from the northeast around 5 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading to see if we'll break into the clear this week....

Tomorrow (Monday): A new week begins with the active weather slowly exiting our area, though it won't clear quickly enough to totally dry us out. Some isolated showers are possible through the day (30% chance), though the highest odds of these would be just to our south. A few breaks of sun may make it through. But most of the day should be mostly cloudy with highs in the low-to-mid 70s and winds from the northeast at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Skies remain mostly cloudy overnight, and I still can't rule out some isolated showers or patches of drizzle. Some fog is possible again, especially in areas that see a few breaks in the clouds overnight. Lows will be right around 60. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, we'll be along the dividing line between high pressure building in from the northwest, and an area of low pressure off the Southeast coast. Right now it looks like the high will win out meaning mostly dry weather. However, it's too early to entirely rule out some showers, particularly Tuesday. If they occur, they'd be most likely in the afternoon/evening. We'll probably see a mix of clouds and sun both days with highs in the upper 70s to the low 80s. However, Wednesday could be quite warm if the high manages to build in stronger.

Tuesday night and Wednesday night, skies should be mostly cloudy and lows around the low 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Brian Jackson  | May 23, 2010; 4:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Showers to dissolve, dry weather nears

Comments

Rain, rain, go away!
I've got a 4 year old's birthday party with a moon bounce in Brookeville today!
Need some breaks or they can't play.
Rain, rain, go away!

Is this thing lifting north, or will it back fill? That is the question. I know we need the rain, and I am all for it, just not from 1-3 today... not to be selfish, or anything. Where's the darn dry slot when I need it. LOL.

Posted by: dprats21 | May 23, 2010 6:34 AM | Report abuse

It looks like an old Nats Cast was posted. They're playing the Orioles today.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | May 23, 2010 6:50 AM | Report abuse

Judging by my empty flower pots, we got upwards of 5" of rain last night. That's crazy!

Posted by: davidcc | May 23, 2010 7:37 AM | Report abuse

That is crazy -- I don't think you should judge rainfall by your empty flowerpots! Five inches of rain would be catastrophic. I think we got more like five TENTHS inch of rain.

Posted by: wrytous | May 23, 2010 7:40 AM | Report abuse

Ok - my pool has 5 inches more water in it than it did yesterday - how should I judge that?

Posted by: davidcc | May 23, 2010 7:42 AM | Report abuse

We got a tremendous amount of rain lastnight. Minimum of 2" here in Manassas and I suspect upwards of that. It looks like the usual weather patterns for DC are back in force for May. Sure was nice in April with all that sun while it lasted. An NO, we do NOT need the rain. I'd say that 60+" of precip from March 09 to March 10 was plenty of rain and the area is still perfectly well above average for precip. We could go 4 months without any rain and still be fine on the water tables. The grass and bushes may not like it but we certainly do not NEED any rain.

Posted by: j0nx | May 23, 2010 7:51 AM | Report abuse

That was epic rain in Centreville VA last night. Hard rain for HOURS.
Completely unofficial measurement here of 2 inches. Please no mas.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 23, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

2.21 inches in NW Montgomery County.

Posted by: MKadyman | May 23, 2010 8:30 AM | Report abuse

1.22" here on Takoma Park/SS border...

Posted by: steske | May 23, 2010 8:35 AM | Report abuse

Northern Prince William county: My empty wading pool from yesterday had 4 inches of water in it this morning. I know that's not scientific, but...

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | May 23, 2010 8:38 AM | Report abuse

There was some banding overnight so some areas were measured in inches. See the radar total at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no (click storm total) or see my screen capture here: http://i433.photobucket.com/albums/qq51/palmer2/stormtotal23May2010.jpg

We seem to be entering the summer pattern where the high totals are east of the Blue Ridge. We had about 1/4 inch total yesterday and overnight. In contrast here's the rain from last January with north winds and no convection: http://i433.photobucket.com/albums/qq51/palmer2/rain25Jan10.jpg

Posted by: eric654 | May 23, 2010 8:38 AM | Report abuse

Very steady and almost heavy rain here in Vienna, with absolutely nothing showing on the radar anywhere close.

Posted by: rocotten | May 23, 2010 8:48 AM | Report abuse

rocotten, there is a little showery stuff showing on http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no but based on your observation, the radar total that I posted is probably on the low side. These smaller showers and narrow convective bands are hard to make measurements of. I suspect people got quite a bit more in some spots than the radar total says they got.

Meanwhile the sun is peeking out here through low clouds coming from N/NW. I suspect we'll have a better day west of the Blue Ridge than you will east.

Posted by: eric654 | May 23, 2010 8:58 AM | Report abuse

1.75" east of Glenmont

Posted by: bgaffney491 | May 23, 2010 10:03 AM | Report abuse

Radar estimates support 3"+ in some isolated spots in the western suburbs, not sure about much more but I guess it's possible. Central Loudoun looks like thw winner. Is Bombo still worried it won't rain? ;-)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 23, 2010 11:14 AM | Report abuse

About 1.25" in NW DC.

On flower pots, if they're the usual ones the top is wider than the bottom, which means the collection area is wider than the measuring area (from the bottom), so the results are misleading. You should be using either a cylinder or, if a conical shape, one that has been calibrated for the circumference of the top. (Same for pools, to a lesser degree, and if you're talking in-ground don't forget run-off into the pool).

Posted by: ah___ | May 23, 2010 11:14 AM | Report abuse

We got 1.35" of rain in S. Arlington. Definite overperformance here.

Posted by: jojo2008 | May 23, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Ian, central Loudoun is definitely the winner. It is pouring right now in Ashburn!

Posted by: natsncats | May 23, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

david_in_stafford, sorry 'bout that. I managed to update the forecast but not the game. Looks like it's fixed now.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 23, 2010 11:44 AM | Report abuse

natsncats, looks like some of the same spots as last night getting hit now. Rain moving (or drifting) west across parts of the area which is sort of unusual. I see Dulles picked up another 3/4" last hour!

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 23, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse

The dew points out there right now are unconscionable - I walked down the street to the store and back (we're talking 1/4 mile round-trip) and I was drenched with sweat. And it's only 70F. I'd rather it were 100 with no humidity.

Posted by: fleeciewool | May 23, 2010 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Getting plastered with rain here in Ashburn. NO MAS!!!!!!

My yard is toast. Looks like a swamp. I pity the next person who says "we need the rain" in front of me. They'll get an earful from me.

Ridiculous.....

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 23, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, rain! Interestingly, my two rain gauges had different totals from last night-perhaps due to "bounce-back" in one: .92" and 1.24".

I was intrigued by j0nx's "60+" comment, and checked National Airport's monthly totals between March '09 & '10. National officially recorded 50.77" for that 12-month period. Last year's precipitation pattern generally included three above-average months followed by three below-average months. Fortunately, at year's end, DCA precip. totals were 6.61" above-normal.

However, the first five months of 2010 have been below average, with National fully 4.5" below normal YTD as of yesterday.

Speaking on behalf of our reservoirs and trees, I'll gratefully take every drop of rain we get!!

Posted by: TominMichiganParkDC | May 23, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

Brian, thanks for updating the NatCast. I only noticed it because my neighbor and his son were going to the game today, and I promised to send him a weather report from this site before they left to the game.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | May 23, 2010 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Flash flood warnings up now. Southern Loudoun, Prince William, Fauquier, et al.

Too much rain, folks.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 23, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

Based on IAD's 3"+ since yesterday radar estimates look moderately accurate. A few 4"+ spots showing now for the entire system. I95 a pretty good border on this event, many people east might think ThinkSpring is off with the "too much rain" comment. Little steering wind and high water content, big rains for some.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 23, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Yep, it's localized, Ian. My yard is a swamp. Way too much rain in the same spot.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 23, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

We sure haven't gotten the same amount here in eastern Prince William. Got a report from a church friend this morning that it 'seemed like a non-stop storm from about midnight to 2am' in the western part of Prince William last night (Bristow area). I think we're getting ready to go out that way to visit my folks. Will check it out and try to report back.

We're still growing new grass in my yard, so a little rain would help our cause (but not as much as ThinkSpring and others have seen!).

Posted by: southbridgemom | May 23, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

I notice the sun peeping out here in S. Alexandria/Mt. Vernon area. What are the chances we'll see late afternoon thundersotms fire up?

Posted by: mcaicedo | May 23, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

err, *thunderstorms*

Posted by: mcaicedo | May 23, 2010 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Another half inch has fallen this morning on top of the 2+ inches from last night.
After the briefest glimpse of sun this morning it's been nothing but light rain, moderate rain, drizzle, repeat.
This is an official Sunday washout.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 23, 2010 1:56 PM | Report abuse

After last night's deluge and more this morning, it is very soggy here in Annandale near the community college. Should we be planning for more this afternoon?

Posted by: VAOrangeFish | May 23, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

I am showing 3.55 inches of rain since yesterday at about 4ish when this rain event started here just south of Hamilton, Western Loudoun. Can this be correct? Just had Flash Flooding Alert here, rain slowed down just a bit.

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | May 23, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Hey all - 1.81 last night and another 2.10 this morning in SE LoCo. Holy tropical. about 4 inches in 20 hours is enough...lets dry out a bit. That 4 inch deficit just went byebye out here.

Posted by: DullesARC | May 23, 2010 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Here in Columbia Heights West, it's pretty much as expected...rain late yesterday into the evening, early morning thunderstorm in wee hours, drier and brighter today. Major thunderstorm with downpours after I got home from the dance at Glen Echo...got home around 12:30 am...storm hit around 2 or 3 am. This storm hit Manassas before us. But the barometer is still around 30.14 and the weather is pretty much as I predicted earlier...more rain last night to early this morning; drier today. Radar seems to show retrograding areas of precipitation.

May try to hike the W&OD Trail later this afternoon but bring my umbrella with me just in case...

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 23, 2010 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Oh man, do I see some, dare I say, sun? Gotta run out and make some more tomato cages before the rain starts up again!

Posted by: worldtraveler83 | May 23, 2010 2:28 PM | Report abuse

My rain gauge shows 5.5" here in south Springfield but 4" of that is from my kids playing with the hose Friday. Forgot to empty it out. Doh.

Posted by: ASColletti | May 23, 2010 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Based on radar/satellite motion, the center of low pressure is south of us...and located just to the west or northwest of Norfolk. The showers seem to be moving east to west and most of the precipitation is to my west. Locally, I'm getting some peeks of sunshine.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 23, 2010 2:29 PM | Report abuse

The showers seem to have rained themselves out to the east of the Blue Ridge. I had about 50% sun this morning for kayaking and got briefly showered on at the end. Not a washout out here.

Posted by: eric654 | May 23, 2010 2:55 PM | Report abuse

Bristow got pretty much hammered last night with rain. Mom and Dad's backyard resembles a swamp. Travelling along Bristow Rd I saw the Turf Farms had lots of puddles in the fields.

Just got a glimpse of the Wx Undergroud radar. Looks like a center of circulation in Central/Southern VA. That would explain the non-stop rain in some places, and nothing in others...

Posted by: southbridgemom | May 23, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Just about 4 inches total for New Baltimore. It's starting to cloud up a little after some breaks of sun ... stay tuned ....

Posted by: weathergrrl | May 23, 2010 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Unbelievable mugginess today, despite clouds and moderate temps. This had to be one of the most uncomforatable days this year yet for humidity. The E to SE flow seems to be bringing in air from the warm Gulf Stream rather than cooler NE flow from the N Atlantic.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | May 23, 2010 7:44 PM | Report abuse

Near Seven Corners/Falls Church, it rained steadily from 11pm Sat. to around 7am Sunday, hardest around 6am... 2.55" total, nice soaker....

Posted by: koggly | May 23, 2010 8:31 PM | Report abuse

This morning, saw Kim Martucci on NBC4 filling in for Chuck Bell...

Drove through some moderate/heavy rains between Haymarket and Centreville around 1p...

This evening, measured about 1.25" east of Front Royal from this weekend's rains...

Posted by: spgass1 | May 23, 2010 10:25 PM | Report abuse

Kim Martucci is supposed to be free-lancing on 4-weekends...

Will have to find out more about the new WUSA weathercasters--neither DCRTV nor CWG has done any bio/intro on them. In addition, the Examiner has only Topper and Bernstein on their weather page.

Speaking of the Examiner, their policy of dropping off free copies in driveways is a humongous LOSER--it comes in VERY SOGGY on these rainy mornings, impossible to dry out--and no one ever picks them up--they become a litter nuisance on our neighborhood scene...please stick to box distribution; we know where the Examiner boxes are! BTW my Post comes in always dry, even on the wettest morning...and the only late delivery happens when there's a lot of snow...

Actual weather for my neighborhood has been VERY CLOSE to what I was forecasting since last Thursday--I had said the major rain would fall late Saturday night to early Sunday morning. West of me [Centreville/Chantilly/Dulles/Fairfax] there has been considerably more rain during the day yesterday. Showers today should be more widely scattered in easterly flow, though general cloudiness may persist...

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 24, 2010 12:01 AM | Report abuse

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