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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 05/24/2010

Forecast: Showers to dissolve, dry weather nears

By Jason Samenow

* Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Get There *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
6A little gray and muggy, but improvement from the weekend.
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight


Today: Mostly cloudy & humid. Slight chance of showers. Mid-70s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Near 60. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Around 80. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


We can say our goodbyes today to the pesky disturbance that brought downpours, humidity, and gray skies for a sizable chunk of the weekend. It may give us a shower or two today on its way out, but beginning tomorrow, we transition to a sunnier and drier weather pattern. This pattern should extend through the holiday weekend -- though showers or thunderstorms may briefly re-appear late Thursday into Friday.

Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): With abundant low level moisture around, some fog is possible early on today. Any fog likely erodes as a little bit of sunshine sneaks through otherwise cloudy skies. We remain close enough to the decaying disturbance to our south that a few showers may develop during the day but these should be widely scattered. Highs reach the mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies persist though we'll probably see some bigger breaks in the sky cover emerge towards morning. Lows drop to around 60. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the week...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): More sunshine presents itself compared to the last couple days and this helps send the mercury back up towards 80 degrees. I can't totally rule out a shower, but odds are down around 20%. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: A few clouds stick around in the evening, but skies should become mostly clear towards morning as high pressure settles over the region. Lows fall to around 60 in the suburbs to the mid-60s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High


Two kids playing ball in the rain Sunday morning in Oakton. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

A rather warm and dry airmass to the west builds over the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days should have considerable sunshine, with highs in the mid-80s Wednesday and all the way to near 90 on Thursday. By late Thursday or Thursday night, a cold front likely approaches from the northwest, increasing cloud cover and producing a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows will tend to be mild, mainly in the 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

On Friday, the cold front may not entirely clear the region until evening, so I'll keep a 20% of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast -- though most activity may be east of the Bay. Highs should be in the low 80s. Confidence: Medium

Cool and dry high pressure to the north probably sinks southward for the Memorial Day weekend. This means sunshine, low humidity and comfortable temperatures. High should be in the mid-70s to around 80 (possibly into the low 80s by Monday) with overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. While the weekend outlook looks great right now, keep checking back as some details could change. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | May 24, 2010; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Hurricane chimp's cheap shot at climate science


Any thoughts on what's going on out near the Bahamas?

Posted by: AdmiralX | May 24, 2010 7:22 AM | Report abuse


This site has some great coverage.

If it reaches TS status, it would be Alex..Oh... :-)

Posted by: jaybird926 | May 24, 2010 7:32 AM | Report abuse

Medium confidence for the Memorial Day Weekend-I'll take it! I will be looking for you to upgrade that in the next day or two to Med-high or high. I don't think there are any details that should be changed. It is perfect camping weather as it is and that is what our family is doing over the weekend.

Posted by: amaranthpa | May 24, 2010 8:26 AM | Report abuse


That's a good link. Thanks.


I don't think this system will impact our area at all, and it's a low probability it would even affect the beaches later this week except for some elevated surf.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | May 24, 2010 8:36 AM | Report abuse

Doug Hill is talking this morning about a coastal storm the end of the week, and you guys are saying nothing but sunny and dry, with a "medium" confidence. Why the divergence of opinion?

Posted by: ijamsman | May 24, 2010 9:03 AM | Report abuse

Doug Hill isn't the only one talking about a coastal @ end of week. Most of the local TV stations are showing next weekend as sketchy at best. I think Howard Bernstein is saying cloudy, showers, and temps only in low 70's. Not good at all.

Hope CapWx is right and the TV mets are wrong on this one. Especially after the damper that all the rain in Loudoun put on this past weekend.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 24, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

re: the weekend

The reason I only went with medium confidence and said "While the weekend outlook looks great right now, keep checking back as some details could change" is because of the possibility of a coastal low. But it looks to me like a coastal low would more likely impact areas areas to the northeast (at least at the moment), but obviously the situation could change...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | May 24, 2010 10:42 AM | Report abuse

Can't wait for some dry weather. The lawn grass grew about a foot over the weekend & it needs to be brought under control.
Since no flocks of sheep or geese are likely to help out it will have to be the electric mower. The electric mower hates wet grass. Sunshine please!

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 24, 2010 11:25 AM | Report abuse

Amen, FIREDRAGON, amen.

Though my mower isn't electric, it nonetheless doesn't have 4WD or mudgrip tires that would be necessary to work in my yard today. Need some drying badly in my neck of the woods.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | May 24, 2010 11:45 AM | Report abuse

Per Sterling...near term Rex block over Eastern U.S. could keep cloudy weather with a slight threat of showers in easterly flow here through Wednesday...chance of thunder is slight except where sun comes through in breaks between clouds.

Since I have not checked out the advance charts I'm not sure of the weekend outlooks yet...presence of a low, trough or frontal boundary in area would promote instability and showers...

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 24, 2010 11:57 AM | Report abuse

Based on frontal boundary positions, the best chance of rain seems to be this coming Thursday and Saturday. Back-door cold fronts should be in the area both days. Otherwise there's no low pressure in the area.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 24, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

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