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Posted at 10:55 AM ET, 05/12/2010

Forecast: Warmer today with storm chance late

By Dan Stillman

Temps yo-yo up and down through Fri; nice weekend

* April was a sweet month | Va. AG's risky climate investigation *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
6A partly sunny & mild middle chunk of the day makes up some for a shower threat early and storm threat late.
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight


Today: Partly sunny. 50% chance of late-day showers/storms. Upper 70s to near 80. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/storms. Low-to-mid 50s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. 25% chance of showers. Low-to-mid 60s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


A warm front that rolled through from south to north overnight has brought quite a different feel today. Gone is yesterday's very cool and showery weather, replaced today by mild and muggy conditions featuring a chance of storms late. Temperatures yo-yo back down tomorrow with highs only in the 60s, and then up again Friday with highs in the 80s. Storm chances return late Friday before a calmer and pleasant pattern takes hold for the weekend.

Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Any early-morning showers should dry up in favor of a partly sunny and somewhat muggy mid-morning through mid-to-late afternoon, as morning temperatures in the upper 50s to mid-60s climb to highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Shower and storm chances increase to around 50% for the late afternoon into evening, with the potential for a few storms to contain strong winds and hail. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Shower and storm chances continue around 50% through the evening, probably diminishing some after midnight. Even with the blanketing effect of mostly cloudy skies, cool breezes from the north/northeast (as the warm front moves back to the south) should drop lows into the low-to-mid 50s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

A cool and gray scene in D.C. yesterday, near Chinatown. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Tomorrow (Thursday): We're back to the cool (north) side of the warm front, which means a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low-to-mid 60s. A few scattered showers are possible through the course of the day, with about a 25% chance you'll get wet where you happen to be. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Just like that, we're back to the warm side of the front as it lifts north again. That means temperatures won't drop very much -- lows in the upper 50s to low 60s -- as shower chances remain around 25%. Confidence: Medium


Warm flow from the southwest probably pushes Friday highs well into the 80s with a mix of clouds and sun. After the chance of an early-morning shower, much of the day should be rain-free but fairly humid. Then a cold front brings a 30-40% chance of showers and storms for the late afternoon and evening. Overnight or toward morning, skies should clear with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

High pressure moves in to provide calm weather for the weekend -- which should be at least partly sunny with low humidity and highs in the 70s -- but may lose its grip enough to allow increasing clouds Sunday afternoon or night. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | May 12, 2010; 10:55 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Showers into the evening
Next: A few words about lightning myths


Sun starting to break-out. Here comes the warm-up...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | May 12, 2010 8:47 AM | Report abuse

Garden wants sun.
Garden needs sun.
Bring it on.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 12, 2010 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Most difficult forecast in quite some time. As beautiful as the weeks of mostly quiet and often mild and sunny weather were, they were almost enough to lull a forecaster to sleep! -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 12, 2010 10:00 AM | Report abuse

No napping today CWG. Storms are coming.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 12, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

We're watching, we're awake ;-)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | May 12, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Looks to me that with the warm front just to our north, and the storms across W. Va. coming east, that the rain is likely to be here sooner than late afternoon and that there are likely to be some pretty impressive storms.

Posted by: JM222 | May 12, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse


I think the earliest those storms reach our far western suburbs is around 3 p.m., with most of the metro area looking at 4 p.m. and onward (i.e., late afternoon through evening) as the most likely timeframe for storms. -Dan, CWG

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 12, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Check out the radar near Elkins, WV...I suspect we are in for it.

Posted by: SPS1 | May 12, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Incoming MCC?

Posted by: eric654 | May 12, 2010 1:34 PM | Report abuse

Any chance I'll make it home on my bike this evening before the storms come?....your post on lightning has made me nervous!

Posted by: manutd | May 12, 2010 1:55 PM | Report abuse

Any chance I'll make it home on my bike before the storms come? your article on lightning has made me nervous!

Posted by: manutd | May 12, 2010 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Is that line going to break up some before getting here?

Posted by: steske | May 12, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Yeppers - MCC discussion is ongoing. The T-Storm box is out for PW County and south....

Posted by: DullesARC | May 12, 2010 2:37 PM | Report abuse

Manuted, how far you have to bike and when do you plan on leaving? My sister just called me yesterday, she was riding her bike from Rochester back to school at Alfred and got caught by the rain about halfway. She was none too pleased. Too bad she didn't call sooner.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 12, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

I'll leave about 5:15 and it usually takes me until about 6 PM. I'm going to get slammed aren't I?

Posted by: manutd | May 12, 2010 4:09 PM | Report abuse

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