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Posted at 7:15 PM ET, 05/ 2/2010

Forecast: Summertime swelter, storm risk tonight

By Brian Jackson

* Severe T'storm Watch far N&W of D.C. (map) *
* Where's the rain? Radar & more: Weather Wall | CWG on Twitter *

Today's Daily Digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
7Quite sticky, but storm chances wait until late.
Get tomorrow's 'Digit' on Twitter tonight


Today: Hot and humid, 20% t'storms late. 87-92. | Tonight: 40-50% chance of showers/t'storms, sticky. Near 70. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers/t'storms. Low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


For the second week in a row, severe weather threatens our region to finish out the weekend. Most of today will stay "dry" but with the heat and humidity, you probably won't. Near-record temperatures play the opening act for some possible storms late but mainly after dark. Sporadic shower and t'storm chances remain in the forecast through at least tomorrow.

Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past three hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Think yesterday, but stickier. While temperatures will be comparable -- highs in the upper 80s to near 90 -- our dew points will be some 10 degrees higher, in the upper 60s to near 70. There's a slight (20%) chance a few thunderstorms could develop late in the day. I don't expect them to be many, but with good instability, any that develop could become severe, so keep an eye on the sky. Winds will be breezy from the southwest at 10-15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Probability: 20-30%
Coverage: Isolated

Tonight: Shower and thunderstorm chances increase to 40-50% for the evening and overnight. The potential intensity of any storms may drop slightly through the night, but storms that develop could still pack a punch. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a slight risk of severe t'storms, with damaging wind the main threat. Outside any storms, we should be mostly cloudy and continued sticky, with lows only in the low 70s to near 70. Winds continue from the southwest at 5-15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

When will we break into the clear again? Keep reading for the forecast through midweek....

Tomorrow (Monday): Doesn't look like an all-day soaker. But a slowly approaching cold front means a 50-60% chance of showers and t'storms. The timing of any showers and storms is difficult to pin down, but right now the morning into the early afternoon seems most likely. We'll again feel quite juicy though temperatures should be cooler -- highs in the low 80s -- with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Once the cold front pushes through, our rain threat quickly diminishes and winds from the northwest usher in drier, more comfortable air, much to everyone's relief. Overnight lows won't be exactly brisk, but the upper 50s and low 60s is definitely an improvement. Confidence: Medium-High


Tuesday doesn't completely erase our chances for rain. Though the chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms -- courtesy a fast-moving disturbance swinging by to the north -- comes down to around 20-30%. The majority of the day should be fairly nice, with partly sunny skies and highs near 80. Overnight sees skies clearing and lows in the mid-50s. Confidence: Medium-High

Wednesday we're in the clear. Skies clear out and I expect the "nice day" sun to get some work in. Mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 make for quite a nice spring day. Confidence: Medium-High

By Brian Jackson  | May 2, 2010; 7:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Showery start to warm week


And just where did this 5 am gentle rain come from???!!! This is wrecking my early morning plans, whine, whine.

Posted by: Murre | May 2, 2010 5:12 AM | Report abuse

Eek, sorry it ruined your plans. We had a few thunderstorms to our west overnight, and when they fell apart, their low level clouds just drifted some light rain into the region. It was surprising they survived the journey. Thunderstorm remnants can do this when we have such high TROPICAL dewpoints like we have now today. SO HUMID. ughh. (there's my whine!)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | May 2, 2010 9:44 AM | Report abuse

Centreville VA Surprised this morning by very early rain showers & persistent overcast skies. Sun is trying to break out now to push current 86 degree temp up for another IAD record breaker.
I hope we don't get walloped tonight.

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | May 2, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

The humidity is so high in's actually *raining* right now. A few raindrops fell, but it stopped as quickly as it started.

Posted by: stuckman | May 2, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

This humidity is unbearable. I stuck my head outside for ten seconds and then scurried back into my AC wonderland. Once some thunderstorms roll through are we going to see it drop at all?

Posted by: HokieTerp | May 2, 2010 1:09 PM | Report abuse

Well it's nice to know that our annual 2 week stretch of nice Spring weather is over. Welcome to hell.

Posted by: wecndo | May 2, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the area, potentially for a tornado watch.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | May 2, 2010 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Camden, thanks. My plans weren't ruined, just changed and delayed. I did get out to where I was going, just an hour later. By then the light gentle rain had been long over.

I see the area to our northwest is under a Severe watch.

Posted by: Murre | May 2, 2010 8:23 PM | Report abuse

Mmmmm, GREAT weather today. Loved every minute of it.

Posted by: ennepe68 | May 2, 2010 9:15 PM | Report abuse

Everything appears to be well west of us moving southwest to northeast.

Posted by: MKadyman | May 2, 2010 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Ugh, I'm seeing Saturday as

Posted by: B-Kraemer | May 2, 2010 10:56 PM | Report abuse

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